From the Australian National University and the department of “claim anything” comes this reversal over what was said two years ago about Antarctica:
“If this rapid warming that we are now seeing continues, we can expect that ice shelves further south along the peninsula that have been stable for thousands of years will also become vulnerable,” said Nerilie Abram, of the Australian National University.
So which is it? Rapid warming, or not warming as much because the winds are “strengthened by carbon dioxide”? I’d love to see proof of that mechanism, and no, models aren’t proof. From Eurekalert:
Ocean winds keep Antarctica cold, Australia dry
Why Antarctica isn’t warming as much as other continents
New Australian National University-led research has explained why Antarctica is not warming as much as other continents, and why southern Australia is recording more droughts.
Researchers have found rising levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are strengthening the stormy Southern Ocean winds which deliver rain to southern Australia, but pushing them further south towards Antarctica.
Lead researcher Nerilie Abram, from the ANU Research School of Earth Sciences, said the findings explained the mystery over why Antarctica was not warming as much as the Arctic, and why Australia faces more droughts.
VIDEO: Dr. Nerlie Abram, from the Australian National University, explains why ocean winds have stopped Antarctica from warming as much as other continents. Her research also explains droughts in Southern Australia.
“With greenhouse warming, Antarctica is actually stealing more of Australia’s rainfall. It’s not good news – as greenhouse gases continue to rise we’ll get fewer storms chased up into Australia,” Dr Abram said.
“As the westerly winds are getting tighter they’re actually trapping more of the cold air over Antarctica,” Abram said. “This is why Antarctica has bucked the trend. Every other continent is warming, and the Arctic is warming fastest of anywhere on earth.”
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  IMAGE: Clouds over Australia are shown.Click here for more information. |
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While most of Antarctica is remaining cold, rapid increases in summer ice melt, glacier retreat and ice shelf collapses are being observed in Antarctic Peninsula, where the stronger winds passing through Drake Passage are making the climate warm exceptionally quickly.
Until this study, published in Nature Climate Change, Antarctic climate observations were available only from the middle of last century.
By analysing ice cores from Antarctica, along with data from tree rings and lakes in South America, Dr Abram and her colleagues were able to extend the history of the westerly winds back over the last millennium.
“The Southern Ocean winds are now stronger than at any other time in the past 1,000 years,” Abram said.
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 IMAGE: Dr. Nerilie Abram is shown working on an ice core.Click here for more information. |
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“The strengthening of these winds has been particularly prominent over the past 70 years, and by combining our observations with climate models we can clearly link this to rising greenhouse gas levels.”
Study co-authors Dr Robert Mulvaney and Professor Matthew England said the study answered key questions about climate change in Antarctica.
“Strengthening of these westerly winds helps us to explain why large parts of the Antarctic continent are not yet showing evidence of climate warming,” said Dr Mulvaney, from the British Antarctic Survey.
“This new research suggests that climate models do a good job of capturing how the westerly winds respond to increasing greenhouse gases,” added Professor England, from the Climate Change Research Centre at UNSW.
“This isn’t good news for farmers reliant on winter rainfall over the southern part of Australia.”
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For those that don’t get my post above. Dictionary definition of ‘sham’:
1.something fake: something that is presented as genuine but that is not
2.impostor: somebody who pretends to be something that he or she is not
3.not genuine: not genuine and used for deception
Dumb question: if a globe starts cooling at one pole for some reason, on whole, will the heat in it migrate to the other pole if it’s not cooling?
In the UK some Roma use tea leaves to tell the past and to forecast the future. In the Middle East, coffee dregs were used for the same purpose. Drs. Nerlie Abram, Robert Mukvaney and Professor Matthew England have found that these can be replaced by tree rings. Why grudge them their corner of fame in the world of Mumbo Jumbo?.
Meanwhile the growing season continues to shorten in both hemispheres.
I only want add to Jimbo comments:
Commenting of Anderson et al., 2009: Wind-Driven Upwelling in the Southern Ocean and the Deglacial Rise in Atmospheric CO2, (http://www.sciencemag.org/content/323/5920/1443.abstract),( http://www.earth.columbia.edu/articles/view/2397) the authors write:
“The faster the ocean turns over, the more deep water rises to the surface to release CO2,” said lead author Robert Anderson, a geochemist at Lamont-Doherty. “It’s this rate of overturning that regulates CO2 in the atmosphere.” In the last 40 years, the winds have shifted south much as they did 17,000 years ago, said Anderson.”
Varma et al., 2011. (http://www.clim-past.net/7/339/2011/cp-7-339-2011.html) write:
“The Southern Hemisphere Westerly Winds (SWW)…”
“The 200-year period was chosen to mimic the de Vries solar cycle, which is one of the most prominent solar cycles during the Holocene …”
“Variations in their intensity and latitudinal position have been suggested to exert a strong influence on the CO2 budget in the Southern Ocean, thus making them a potential factor affecting the global climate.”
“Taken together, the proxy and model results suggest that centennial-scale periods of lower (higher) solar activity caused equatorward (southward) shifts of the annual mean SWW.”
”… we propose that the role of the sun in modifying Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation patterns has probably been nderestimated in model simulations of past climate change. The potential role of solar forcing, long with feedbacks involving ocean and sea-ice dynamics …”
Varma et al. 2012. (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL053403/abstract): “The SWW shift is more intense and robust for the simulation with varying stratospheric ozone, suggesting an important influence of solar-induced stratospheric ozone variations on mid-latitude troposphere dynamics.”
Mayr et al., 2013. (http://geology.gsapubs.org/content/41/8/831.abstract): „… phenomenon with CO2 release from the deep ocean. [in the past]” “This is in agreement with an increase in zonal wind strength extending to the southern mid-latitudes …”
There is no place for anthropogenic global warming (here). It is only the Sun …. The authors (commenting here paper) confuse causes with effects …
Christchurch NZ last year 2013 had 112 days of West to Northwest wind days which was near record numbers. We had a very warm year.
In 2012 we had only 65 West to Northwest day and it was a cool year.
It was the number of West – Northwest day that gave the warm year as the temp of these winds was still normal. As a west to Northwest wind is always +5-8c warmer than the over all long term avg.
I’ve been wondering how they were going to explain the failure of an Arctic meltdown, and probably a recovery. Now it’s becoming clearer. Except that they’re going to have to perform this next legerdemain while holding onto the idea that the Arctic is warming. It should be an interesting act.
Is this before or after they adjusted the historical records downward?
Oh wait, they don’t actually have historical data.
“””””””……..Researchers have found rising levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are strengthening the stormy Southern Ocean winds which deliver rain to southern Australia, but pushing them further south towards Antarctica.
Lead researcher Nerilie Abram, from the ANU Research School of Earth Sciences, said the findings explained the mystery over why Antarctica was not warming as much as the Arctic, and why Australia faces more droughts……..”””””””
Well no it may explain why Australia warms faster than Antarctica, but there’s more CO2 in the Arctic, than the Antarctic (that’s an experimental fact). So the Arctic should also have stronger winds pushing more rain to the arctic, and away from California.
So Nerilie Nearly got it correct but she Narrolie missed it by just this much.
CO2 has virtually NO annual cyclic change in the Antarctic, but it has three times the Mauna Loa cyclic change in the arctic, and the southern hemisphere isn’t warming as fast as the north, so nyet on warming causing more extreme winds in the SH, but not the north.
Drivel. Pseudoscience. Garbage.
College drop-out logic:
Anarctica stealing rain from Australia=more snow=larger glaciers pushing the ice shelves farther to sea? Not to mention the water locked up in the larger glaciers make MSLs drop? Help me here.
Many here wonder how the authors determined wind speed from ice cores. Easy. The insects trapped in the ice will show varying degrees of windsweptness; the laying back of antennae for example. These insects have been swept in from Patagonia by the Antarctic vortex in case you were wondering.
A few days ago there was a link to a nice cartoon.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/05/05/monday-mirthiness-the-science-news-cycle/#comments
Perhaps you should have a look again, and think about what i going on in this thread.
An actual link to the paper was given by Berényi Péter 12 May 3:53am. Did anyone read it?
To add to jimbo’s post above, here are the actual average rainfall figures for Southern Australia’s rainfall since 1901 in 30-year periods. These are the yearly averages for each period (23 years for last period).
1901-1930 371ml/year
1931-1960 378ml/year
1961-1990 395ml/year
1991-2013 397ml/year
Hardly a decline in rainfall. Didn’t the researchers check the rainfall records before making such claims.
“Definition: SAM is defined as the normalised difference mean sea-level pressure between 40°S and 65°S. A high SAM index is associated with stronger westerlies in a broad band around 55°S and anomalously dry conditions over southern South America, New Zealand and Tasmania and wet conditions over much of Australia and South Africa. Over the ocean, the stronger westerly winds tend to generate stronger eastward currents which diverge at the ocean surface due to enhanced wind-driven Ekman transport leading to stronger upwelling in ˜60°S. The departures of SAM from its annular pattern enhance meridional exchanges and thus large heat transport.”
http://icdc.zmaw.de/606.html?&L=1
Straw grabbing is a skill that is particular to those in a panic.