Melting by 2035? Hardly! New study shows most Himalayan Glaciers are stable and in a steady state

WUWT readers may recall that the IPCC famously claimed (using fake data) that Himalayan glaciers would melt by 2035. That date later turned out to be a blunder of epic proportions, requiring a retraction. Now, the results of a new study show that most of  the two thousand Himalayan glaciers monitored are in a steady state compared to the results of other studies carried out for the period prior to 2001.

himalayan_glaciers_stable

Bahuguna et al.: Are the Himalayan glaciers retreating? 

Abstract: The Himalayan mountain system to the north of the Indian land mass with arcuate strike of NW–SE for about 2400 km holds one of the largest concentration of glaciers outside the polar regions in its high-altitude regions. Perennial snow and ice-melt from these frozen reservoirs is used in catchments and alluvial plains of the three major Himalayan river systems, i.e. the Indus, Ganga and Brahmaputra for irrigation, hydropower generation, production of bio-resources and fulfilling the domestic water demand. Also, variations in the extent of these glaciers are understood to be a sensitive indicator of climatic variations of the earth system and might have implications on the availability of water resources in the river systems.

Therefore, mapping and monitoring of these fresh  water resources is require d for the planning of water resources and understanding the impact of climatic variations. Thus a study has been carried out to find the change in the extent of Himalayan glaciers during the last decade using IRS LISS III images of 2000 /01/02 and 2010/11. Two thousand and eighteen glaciers representing climatically diverse terrains in the Himalaya were mapped and monitored. It includes glaciers of Karakoram, Himachal, Zanskar, Uttarakhand, Nepal and Sikkim regions. Among these, 1752 glaciers (86.8%) were observed having stable fronts (no change in the snout position and area of ablation zone), 248 (12.3%) exhibited retreat and 18 (0.9%) of them exhibited advancement of snout. The net loss in 10,250.68 sq km area of the 2018 glaciers put together was found to be 20.94 sq km or 0.2% (2.5 % of 20.94 sq km). […]

The results of the present study indicate that most of  the glaciers were in a steady state compared to the results of other studies carried out for the period prior to 2001. This period of monitoring almost corresponds to hiatus in global warming in the last decade. It may happen that an interval of one decade could be smaller than the response time of glaciers to be reflected in terms of any significant change with 23.5 m spatial resolution of data. This point requires further studies using high-resolution data for a longer interval of time.

Full paper here: Current Science April 2014 (PDF)

h/t to The GWPF

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Jimbo
May 10, 2014 11:51 am

This is not the first study to show little change. Just 2 years ago the Guardian reported this.

Guardian – 8 February 2012
The Himalayas and nearby peaks have lost no ice in past 10 years, study shows
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/feb/08/glaciers-mountains

May 10, 2014 12:04 pm

I’ve wondered from time to time about world glaciers having had no news of them in a long time. My assumption was that news about them didn’t support the agenda and it appears I am correct. I think it time for an article by knowledgeable types on the world’s glaciers. Remember we were bombarded regularly about the disaster of global glacier retreat. All I have heard since are glaciers in Alaska, Kilimanjaro and now Himalayas are stable or expanding.

May 10, 2014 12:34 pm

I checked the authoritative (IPCC, etc.) world glacier monitoring service – measuring for over 100 years (but stopped measuring in 2008). Their last publication on this was 2008 and there has been no further reports – the reports were annual up to then and in their present web site they clarion the call for CO2 abatement which they anticipate will be endorsed in Copenhagen meeting (2009). They have the same blurb on the plight of rapidly retreating glaciers but even it dates 2008. They are, like the rest of the Global Warming Synod, in a holding pattern, praying for resumption of the warming. In fossicking around for info, I did see that the glaciers in CONUS have turned around and are all growing. Norwegian glaciers are growing ~7feet a year, All of NZ’s glaciers are growing over the last number of years. Remember the hype of impending iceless doom? This calls for a good global report here at WUWT on the status of glaciers now that the main guys at WGMS have fallen quiet since 2008. They invite inquiries – maybe worth a few emails.
http://www.wgms.ch/

James the Elder
May 10, 2014 4:08 pm

MikeUK says:
May 10, 2014 at 8:42 am
I’ve read claims (sorry can’t find a link) that the 2035 date in the IPCC report (for the end of Himalayan glaciers) was just a typo, it was meant to be 2350. Has anyone got time for some sleuthing to check out that claim?
Climatedepot says the 2035 date came from an unpublished report promoted by the WWF.
=============================
World Wrestling Federation? Probably just as accurate.

Siberian_Husky
May 10, 2014 5:38 pm

So what you are saying is that about twelve times as many glaciers are retreating as are advancing in the Himalayas? And about 20 square kilometres of ice has been lost in 10 years. That’s one hell of a lot of ice.

May 10, 2014 8:50 pm

Siberian_Husky says:
May 10, 2014 at 5:38 pm
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
And we have 883,000 square kilometres of extra sea ice. Does that balance things? 😏

bubbagyro
May 10, 2014 8:51 pm

Polar doggy:
The global sea ice has increased almost a million sq. km in the past year alone. Let’s see, which is more? I’m not a mathematarian, so I can’t say exactly, dude.

May 10, 2014 10:00 pm

Siberian_Husky says:
May 10, 2014 at 5:38 pm
“So what you are saying is that about twelve times as many glaciers are retreating as are advancing in the Himalayas? And about 20 square kilometres of ice has been lost in 10 years. That’s one hell of a lot of ice.”
-0.2% of the area of the glaciers monitored in this study. Is that all the glaciers in the Himalayas? Probably not. I think a study worldwide of all the glaciers should be done. Should be doable from all the satellite photos from way back when and now you can get them daily. I believe that both the Ice volume of both Greenland and Antarctica have increased in the last 10 years – that’s just my hunch from some of the photos I have seen. (also from data regarding ice thickness + vs -)
It looks like the world glacier monitoring service hasn’t been monitoring glaciers since 2008 a lapse of 6 years. They are probably adjusting their data calculations so they can all talk from the same source.
Just sayin…

May 10, 2014 10:33 pm

The largest tidewater glacier in North America:
From Wakapedia:
“Hubbard Glacier is a glacier located in eastern Alaska and part of yukon Canada.
Map of Hubbard Glacier
Hubbard Glacier, Alaska squeezes towards Gilbert Point on May 20, 2002 The glacier is close to sealing off Russell Fjord at top from Disenchantment Bay at bottom.
The longest source for Hubbard Glacier originates 122 kilometres (76 mi) from its snout and is located at about 61°00′N 140°09′W, approximately 8 kilometres (5 mi) west of Mount Walsh with an altitude around 11,000 feet (3,400 m). A shorter tributary glacier begins at the easternmost summit on the Mount Logan ridge at about 18,300 feet (5,600 m) at about 60°35′0″N 140°22′40″W.
Before it reaches the sea, Hubbard is joined by the Valerie Glacier to the west, which, through forward surges of its own ice, has contributed to the advance of the ice flow that experts believe will eventually dam the Russell Fjord from Disenchantment Bay waters.
The Hubbard Glacier ice margin has continued to advance for about a century. In May 1986, the Hubbard Glacier surged forward, blocking the outlet of Russell Fjord and creating “Russell Lake.” All that summer the new lake filled with runoff; its water level rose 25 metres (82 ft), and the decrease in salinity threatened its sea life.[1]
Around midnight on October 8 the dam began to give way. In the next 24 hours an estimated 5.3 cubic kilometres (1.3 cu mi) of water gushed through the gap, and the fjord was reconnected to the ocean at its previous level.[1] This was the second largest glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) in recorded history, and had the equivalent flow of about 35 Niagara Falls.
In spring 2002, the glacier again approached Bert Point. It pushed a terminal moraine ahead of its face and closed the opening again in July. On August 14, the terminal moraine was washed away after rains had raised the water level behind the dam it formed to 18 m (59 ft) above sea level.[2] The fjord could become dammed again, and perhaps permanently. If this happens, the fjord could overflow its southern banks and drain through the Situk River instead, threatening trout habitat and a local airport.
It takes about 400 years for ice to traverse the length of the glacier, meaning that the ice at the foot of the glacier is about 400 years old. The glacier routinely calves[3] off icebergs the size of a ten-story building. Where the glacier meets the shore, most of the ice is below the waterline, and newly calved icebergs can shoot up quite dramatically, so that ships must keep their distance from it as they ply their way up and down the coast.
…Status Advancing”…
____________________________
Also from Wakapedia:
“Taku Glacier is a tidewater glacier located in Taku Inlet in the U.S. state of Alaska, just southeast of the city of Juneau. Recognized as the deepest and thickest glacier known in the world, the Taku Glacier is measured at 4,845 feet (1,477 m) thick.[1] It is about 58 kilometres (36 mi) long, and is largely within the Tongass National Forest.
The glacier was originally named Schultze Glacier in 1883 and the Foster Glacier in 1890, but Taku, the name the local Tlingit natives had for the glacier, eventually stuck. It is nestled in the Coast Mountains and originates in the Juneau Icefield. It is the largest glacier in the icefield and one of the southernmost tidewater glaciers of the northern hemisphere.
The glacier, which converges with the Taku River at Taku Inlet, has a history of advancing until it blocks the river, creating a lake, followed by a dramatic break of the ice dam. The most recent of these advances occurred in 1750. The glacier has advanced 7.75 kilometres (4.82 mi) since 1890, and as of June 29, 2012 is 1.26 kilometres (0.78 mi) from Taku Point.[2] It is the only advancing glacier of the 20 major glaciers of the Juneau Icefield.[3] If the advance continues it will again block the river, but this appears unlikely at present. Since 1946, the glacier has been monitored by the Juneau Icefield Research Program, which has documented its rate of advance since 1988 at 17 metres (56 ft) a year. The advance is due to a positive mass balance; that is, more snow accumulates than snow and ice melt. Until 1948 the glacier had a calving front; since then the terminus has been grounded.
Due to the positive mass balance and the fact that it was no longer losing mass to icebergs, Taku Glacier has become insensitive to the warming that has impacted all other glaciers of the icefield. This has driven its advance. The recent negative mass balance 1989-2005 is not large enough yet to stop the advance, but it is the first sign that the glacier’s advance may not take it to Taku Point.
…Status Advancing”…
Haven’t heard much at all about these glaciers from the World Glacier Monitoring Service… please correct me if I’m wrong…

May 10, 2014 11:53 pm

Tried emailing to the World Glacier Monitoring Service (6 different addresses – are they still in business:
The email address “”wgmsgeo.uzh.ch”” is not recognized. Please fix it and try again.

ralfellis
May 11, 2014 5:26 am

When i was up in the Himalaya in the late ’90s, my guide pointed out all the tributary glaciers that were receding, and all those that were advancing. So there were wide differences between glaciers, and all within a 50-mile radius.
Clearly, these differences were not due to climate, and they were hardly due to even weather, in such a small region.
Ralph

Jimbo
May 11, 2014 6:42 am

What is the CURRENT global situation wrt mountain glacier retreat / advance / stability right now?
What is the CURRENT total global mountain glacier mass balance situation?
I know some glaciers advance at the same time some will retreat, and I know that glaciers have been in a GENERAL state of retreat since about 1850.
Here are some OLD references I found on mountain glaciers.

For glaciers outside Antarctica or Greenland—referred to here as subpolar and mountain glaciers—researchers have compiled and analyzed numerous measurements of existing mass balance (Dyurgerov and Meier 1997, Cogley and Adams 1998, Dyurgerov 2002, Cogley 2002, Dyurgerov and Meier 2005, Kaser et al. 2006).
Since 1946 researchers have measured mass balance on more than 300 glaciers, although we only have continuous records for about 40 glaciers since the early 1960s.
http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/sotc/glacier_balance.html

There are thousand of glaciers so could it be they are monitoring the interesting ones only?

Jimbo
May 11, 2014 6:53 am

With regards to my last comment link see this from State of the Cryosphere on the National Snow and Ice Data Center. At the top they ask:
“is the cryosphere sending signals about climate change?”
If it’s sending signals then let us know. What is the use of funding if they can’t update this page up to 2012? They have a graph showing “Global Glacier Thickness Change:…..1961 to 2005…..”

SOTC: Mountain Glaciers
Last updated: 4 June 2008
http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/sotc/glacier_balance.html

george e. smith
May 11, 2014 7:07 am

“””””…..Siberian_Husky says:
May 10, 2014 at 5:38 pm
So what you are saying is that about twelve times as many glaciers are retreating as are advancing in the Himalayas? And about 20 square kilometres of ice has been lost in 10 years. That’s one hell of a lot of ice……”””””
Yes it is; almost 5,000 acres of lost ice. (4942).
Gee that’s about how much California forest gets burned, every time some environmentalist roasts a few marshmallows, and then gets drunk, while contemplating the magnificence of solitude. And we lose far more than that in burning tumbleweed, every year, just along highway 5, because people pull off the road onto the grass with a hot catalytic converter, under their car.

Jimbo
May 11, 2014 7:27 am

Here is some information only on other stable or growing glaciers (not necessarily peer reviewed). PLEASE nobody reply to me telling me that mountain glaciers have been generally retreating since 1850, I know.
You do realise that if mountain glaciers around the world GENERALLY started advancing they are gonna blame global warming. I am not kidding you.
Some glaciers are apparently growing due to global warming. 😉

National Geographic – September 11, 2006
Some glaciers in Pakistan’s Upper Indus River Basin appear to be growing, and a new study suggests that global warming is the cause.
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/09/060911-growing-glaciers.html

Some lost weight due to global warming and some gained weight due to global warming. 😉

Swiss Alps
translation Philipp Mueller
Schweiz am Sonntag, 29 September 2013
For the Swiss Alps 2013 was a good summer. Not since ten years ago have the glaciers lost as little mass as this year. And some seem to be gaining a little weight.
http://www.thegwpf.org/alpine-glaciers-growing/

Growing Glaciers around the world

Jimbo
May 11, 2014 8:17 am

When looking at glacier ‘melt’ don’t only look for co2 warming they point to. There is deforestation and soot to name just two. You will find papers on soot in the Himalayas (Asian brown cloud), Greenland, the Arctic Ocean, Alps etc. Deforestation is known to be the major cause of the retreating ice cap of mount Kilimanjaro. Warm water can also play a part with sea terminating glaciers. It’s not just co2 induced hot air. Sometimes it’s induced by soot.

Abstract
End of the Little Ice Age in the Alps forced by industrial black carbon
http://www.pnas.org/content/110/38/15216
——————-
Nature Article – 2 September 2013
How soot killed the Little Ice Age
Industrial revolution kicked off Alpine glacier retreat fifty years before warming began.
http://www.nature.com/news/how-soot-killed-the-little-ice-age-1.13650

Jonny Old Boy
May 11, 2014 1:08 pm

Glacier data on the observed glaciers on earth is irrelevant. We simply do not have more than 1% of the data needed to make any meaningful predictions. Glacier data largely is skewed due to measured glaciers being near to populations and hence subject to human influence. I suspect if we DID have the data necessary it would point to one fairly obvious fact…. we are in an “inter-glacial” period and glaciers are understandably under pressure.

May 11, 2014 2:51 pm

Himalayian glaciers melting!
‘…just a quiet change of wording…so with no admission that he got anything wrong
…Monckton has climbed down from a speech that he told the Himalayas have shown no particular change in 200 hundred years…to a claim that they have being retreating for 200 years…’

Jimbo
May 11, 2014 3:53 pm

blackadderthe4th says:
May 11, 2014 at 2:51 pm
Himalayian glaciers melting!
‘…just a quiet change of wording…so with no admission that he got anything wrong
…Monckton has climbed down from a speech that he told the Himalayas have shown no particular change in 200 hundred years…to a claim that they have being retreating for 200 years…’

I would love to watch your video but my bandwidth is payed for by the MB and is running low.
It seems Monckton made a response about the 200 year issue.

WUWT January 11, 2012
Monckton responds to Peter Hadfield aka “potholer54″ – plus Hadfield’s response
……..So why did he misrepresent me?
“Monckton said there had been no change in the Himalayan glaciers for 200 years. There has.”
No, I cited Professor M.I. Bhat of the Indian Geological Survey, who had told me on several occasions that the pattern of advance and retreat of these glaciers was much as it had been in the 200 years since the British Raj had been keeping records. That is very far from the same thing as saying there had been “no change”: indeed, it is the opposite, for advance and retreat are both changes. Why did the caveman misrepresent me?…….
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/01/11/monckton-responds-to-potholer54/

Jimbo
May 11, 2014 4:11 pm

blackadderthe4th says:
May 11, 2014 at 2:51 pm
Himalayian glaciers melting!………..

Here is a reference I gave earlier on past movements of the Himalayan glaciers.

Abstract1979
Himalayan and Trans-Himalayan Glacier Fluctuations Since AD 1812
Historical records of the fluctuations of glaciers in the Himalayas and Trans-Himalayas date back to the early 19th century. Local and regional syntheses of 112 of these fluctuation records are presented in this study. The local syntheses deal with fluctuations of glaciers in Kanchenjunga-Everest, Garwhal, Lahaul-Spiti, Kolahoi, Nanga Parbat, Karakoram (north and south sides), Rakaposhi-Haramosh, Batura Mustagh, and Khunjerab-Ghujerab. Regional syntheses deal with the composite record and the differentiation of records by glacier type (longitudinal versus transverse) and regional setting (Himalayan versus Trans-Himalayan). In a gross regional sense Himalayan and Trans-Himalayan glaciers have been in a general state of retreat since AD 1850. Filtering of the fluctuation records with respect to glacier type and regional setting reveals that the period AD 1870 to 1940 was characterized by alternations in the dominancy of retreat, advance, and standstill regimes.
http://digitalcommons.library.umaine.edu/ers_facpub/185/

7 February 2010
Lord Monckton article in the Sunday Indian.
…..A few weeks ago, I e-mailed Professor MI Bhat, of the Indian Geological Survey. Professor Bhat is an entertaining, courteous and always profoundly knowledgeable scientist. I asked him how his glaciers were getting on……
His report in response to my question was to the point. The glaciers were doing just fine, he said. Nothing unusual, compared with what could be found in the records going back at least 150 years……..
http://www.thesundayindian.com/en/story/inconvenient-truths/37/571/

Dr. Strangelove
May 12, 2014 1:40 am

At the current rate the Himalayan glaciers are melting, it will take 4,880 years to disappear. I bet the next glacial period will arrive before that time, and New York and London will be under 1 km thick glacier.

James at 48
May 12, 2014 9:37 am

Serious warming ought to crank up the thermal low in Central Asia every summer, putting the Monsoon into overdrive and moving most of those glaciers into the “Advancing” category.

Siberian_Husky
May 12, 2014 8:01 pm

Wayne Delbeke says:
And we have 883,000 square kilometres of extra sea ice. Does that balance things? 😏
bubbagyro says:
Polar doggy:
The global sea ice has increased almost a million sq. km in the past year alone. Let’s see, which is more? I’m not a mathematarian, so I can’t say exactly, dude.
No it doesn’t balance things. Ice has been decreasing in the arctic over the last couple of decades. Ice has been increasing in some (though not all) areas of the antarctic. This is a well understood phenomenon and predicted by increasing temperatures.
Just for something different on this website- a proper study from a reputable journal:
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v6/n5/full/ngeo1767.html