From the “correlation is not causation” department.
Guest Posting by Ira Glickstein
Since the Death Penalty was restored in the US in 1975, the Number of Executions per Year correlates with UAH Global Temperature Anomaly better than CO2 levels! So, if we want to reduce warming, cut the rate of capital crimes! (See graphic below.)
In the above graphic, the black line indicates US Executions per Year from 1975 to 2013 (Source: http://www.statisticbrain.com/death-penalty-statistics/ NAACP LDF “Death Row, U.S.A., Gallup Poll, Bureau of Justice Statistics”), the blue jagged line indicates monthly UAH Satellite-Based Temperature of the Global Lower Atmosphere from 1979 through 2013 and the red line shows the running centered 13-month average (Source: http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/02/uah-global-temperature-update-for-january-2014-0-29-deg-c/).
In an earlier WUWT posting I showed that Total US Debt (public and private) as a percentage of US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) correlates with NASA GISS US Annual Mean Temperature Anomaly better than CO2 levels! So, if we want to reduce warming, cut the debt! (See http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/02/16/forget-co2-us-debt-causes-warming/)
Therefore, based on the (faulty) idea that Correlation Implies Causation, we can solve Global Warming by reducing US debt and US capital crimes :^)
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Blimey. How many people per annum must the US Gov have been executing during the Holocene Climate Optimum?
kadaka (KD Knoebel) says:
May 10, 2014 at 12:01 am
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I’ve enjoyed reading your comments over the years.
Your “Scotland” reference went over my head.
Care to explain ?
Actually the theory that there is a good correlation between executions and global warming, and these are causally related, is borne out by Australia. There have been no executions in Australia for some years, and there has been no global temperature rise since 1998. Clearly, since the cessation of executions preceded the cessation of temperature rise, the rate of executions determines the temperature rise – causally related!
For u.k. (us)
kadaka (KD Knoebel) says: May 10, 2014 at 12:01 am
“There is a high road, and there is a low road, and there is a place for each. This place is Friday Funny. I’ll get to Scotland before you do.”
This is a reference to a barbaric (Scottish) song where rebels are returning to Scotland. The singer is going to be caught and executed – taking the high road – and hence getting to Heaven quickly, while the auditor of the song is going to walk – taking the low road – and will get to Heaven (which he considers to be Scotland) rather later
From u.k.(us) on May 10, 2014 at 12:34 am:
Here is the formal version, the first three lines are somewhat common in plain English. I’ve heard those lines in many shows, movies, in ways that actually don’t reference the full original at all, just play off the high road vs low road part.
From Dudley Horscroft on May 10, 2014 at 1:06 am:
Check the lyrics again, you got that bass ackwards.
Hey, the video isn’t working. This association between global warming and crimes makes me wonder what we are doing to ourselves. Infact, i read an amazing article the other day: http://doublethinkhub.wordpress.com/2014/04/08/the-ability-to-trace-back-our-existence/
Naughty, naughty. Don’t let the Democrat IRS hear you say this.
“Since the Death Penalty was restored in the US in 1975, the Number of Executions per Year correlates with UAH Global Temperature Anomaly better than CO2 levels! So, if we want to reduce warming, cut the rate of capital crimes!”
That’s daft. It isn’t the crimes that cause Global Warming, it’s the executions. Abolish the death penalty and end Global Warming.
Hold on, Dudly Horscroft. The last execution in Australia was in 1967, and the death penalty was abolished in all states in 1973. And Global Warming started and roared ahead for years. That proves it is the lack of a death penalty that causes Global Warming.
kadaka (KD Knoebel) says: May 10, 2014 at 1:27 am
I do sing bass, but I admit I got the words wrong. Well, you wouldn’t really expect a Sassenach to actually remember the words, would you? (None of my ancestors, so far as we have been able to trace, came from north of the Border – the border being the River Thames.)
Actually, JoNova has proof that it is all the fault of the US post office.
joannenova.com.au/2009/05/shock-global-temperatures-driven-by-us-postal-charges/
Similarly drowning incidents seem to correlate with global warming.
AGW proponents should demonstrate their commitment by carrying a life-raft in a backpack with a whistle, blinking light, GPS-tag, week’s supplies etc. You know, no expenses speared to cool the globe. It gives them a new project and may also alleviate their oceanophobias by the same token.
I have pointed out before that my sons growth correlates perfectly with global warming. His height increased every year until he turned 20 in 1996. Since then he has been roughly the same height with possibly a small amount of reduction from 6ft 6 to 6 ft 5 1/2.
[mkelly: GREAT example of a coincidental correlation. Thanks. Ira]
Be careful broadbrushing ‘criminal’, as there is the three-felonies’per-day hypothesis with a bood and website devoted.
Post hoc is a particularly tempting error because temporal sequence appears to be integral to causality. The fallacy lies in coming to a conclusion based solely on the order of events, rather than taking into account other factors that might rule out the connection.
mkelly says: May 10, 2014 at 2:53 am
One more reason for protecting children from thermophobes with a restraining order.
High road/low road; as I recall, perhaps from my childhood (Douglas Bruce from Pages, Gibsons, Coffins), the high road went above the bogs and was likely taxed/tolled. The common folk walked the low boggy road, more direct and wetter. Hence ghillies pierced brogans, tied to not be sucked off pulling knee deep from mud and quickly draining.
For u.k.(us), kadaka, Dudley Horscroft …
Loch Lomond …
[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x5AQgKnnYeI&w=560&h=315%5D
If the above video box doesn’t post correctly, then try …
agfosterjr:
I read your post at May 10, 2014 at 12:14 am which is here and purports to answer my post at May 9, 2014 at 11:37 pm which is here.
I notice that you did not address my offer to sell you a bridge and I am writing to determine if this was an oversight. Please note that I need the money and I am willing to sell you any bridge you want.
Richard
kadaka (KD Knoebel) says:
May 9, 2014 at 10:32 pm
I take a piss at least once before midnight, the Sun rises in the morning. This has occurred 100% of the time, the correlation is perfect. Now I just have to deduce the process of causation!
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pretty sure that if the sun didn’t rise in the morning, neither would you.
[Fred: True statement, but it misses the point. If, on a particular day, kadaka did not urinate before midnight, and the Sun still rose in the morning, (or vice-versa) would you still say these two actions had a causal relationship?
By the way, you can estimate a man’s age (A) by multiplying his height in feet (H) by the number of times he urinates a day (U): A = H x U. That means U = A/H which implies that both increased age and reduced height cause more frequent urination. At the age of 75, I know that age generally causes more frequent urination, but, as far as I know, height has little or no effect.
Based on the Ice Core record and pre-industrial age history, we know that climate change, including both Global Warming (GW) and Global Cooling, occur due to Natural Processes and Cycles (NPC). We also know that CO2 is a “greenhouse” gas that, with increasing levels, can cause Global Warming. Thus GW = A x NPC + B x CO2. So, what is the relative magnitude of A and B? Given 17 years of rising CO2 and no statistical warming, we know that A >> B. Right? Ira]
Since the growth of the national debt is the most ineluctable force of the three I must conclude the national debt causes global warming and capital crime. We’re doomed. The only question is whether we will be murdered or die from heat prostration.
I think some state should have a death penalty by death by CO2 overdose.
I think in the case of execution by electric chair, that would be local warming, not global. Correlation by electrification.
In the watermelon’s mindset, everything causes global warming, and global warming causes everything. Kind of like Homer Price’s “Eversomuch moreso”….
With regard to CO2 capital punishment, anyone remember Halon systems for computer rooms?
I don’t know Ira, it looks to me like temperature leads executions and debt. This might be grabbed up by the team to show how high temps cause these things. The relationship does indicate that definitive experiments can be carried out. We could vote the Democrats back in for two terms and as the debt rises see if we can get commensurate results. I hesitate to test the executions relationship, however.
[Gary: Of course you are right … EVERYTHING is caused by excessive human-caused Carbon emissions. Heat (and Cold), Floods (and Drought), Wind (and Calm), Fire (and Ice), Terrorism (and War), Capital Crimes (and Massive Public and Private Debt)! And, as Al Gore proved with his “Inconvenient Truth” movie success, it doesn’t matter that the Ice Core data shows that Temperature Change (both Warming and Cooling) LEADS CO2 change (both Increasing and Decreasing) by hundreds of years. The Team will claim that human-caused Carbon is responsible. Ira]
Mark Fawcett says:
May 9, 2014 at 11:04 pm
“”That’s pretty silly. I have eaten food and I’m still alive. “All eaters will die” is better, but the correlation is obvious: all animals eat; all animals die. You simply cannot find a case of correlation (correctly absolute) without causation. ”
Whether it’s silly or not is irrelevant.”
One could say eating leads to death. All this says is that the first activity is proof of being alive and then…