Joe Bastardi writes on the Patriot Post:
There is a huge event being forecasted this year by the CFSV2, and I don’t know if anyone else is mentioning this. For the first time in over a decade, the Arctic sea ice anomaly in the summer is forecast to be near or above normal for a time! While it has approached the normals at the end of the winter season a couple of times because of new ice growth, this signals something completely different – that multiyear growth means business – and it shows the theory on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is likely to be on target.
Once it flips, this red herring of climate panic will be gone. Global and Southern Hemisphere anomalies are already unmentionable since the former is well above normal and the latter is routinely busting daily records.
The biggest minimum anomalies are in the summer since this flipped, and the only peaks came very close to the height of winters once this melting was underway.
Now look at what the CFSV2 forecasted for 2012.
The brief positive anomaly hit early, but for the summer it’s well below normal. In 2013, it’s the same, though not as far.
But this year it’s forecast to be around normal in August!
This is only with a yearly AMO back off. I don’t think this is the real deal of the flip yet. But it makes the point that one can correlate the ice in the Arctic with the Atlantic cycle.
…
It should be obvious as to who is the boss here, and with the warm AMO in its waning years, the Arctic sea ice hysteria will wind up where so many agenda driven items do – on the ash heap of history.
This, if correct, is going to be a huge story. It would be the first summer where Arctic sea ice returned to near normal, indicative of the increase in multiyear ice and what a turn to the colder AMO in the future means! Let’s see if anyone else picks up on it.
Read his full story here: http://patriotpost.us/opinion/25340
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More on CFSv2 here: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/
As always, I let reality and not models tell me what is happening. When temps hadn’t risen by only, say, 10 years, it mattered to me. If this reversal occurs, it will matter to many of us. And if it doesn’t happen, that is again listening to reality and not models.
Yet a reversal of sea ice extent, one that lasts for several years to a couple of decades or more, that would be amazing to the chattering classes.
In terms of actual warming, it wouldn’t be amazing as no increase in temperatures for 16 years and running.
But in terms of confirmation of the dominance of natural variability, there wouldn’t be anything more shocking that to see Arctic sea ice once again start to expand for a while. Since there wouldn’t be any way to explain it away, such an event would probably be ignored as much as possible by MSM, with every weather event continually hogging the headlines.
As has been the case for several years now the summer minimum will be determined by the winds over the next 4 months. If the winds blow the ice out into the North Atlantic then there will be a low minimum. If the winds tend to push the ice towards land areas then the minimum will be higher. Interestingly, when the winds do blow the ice out to be melted it also keeps the anomaly value lower for awhile making it look like there is more ice.
I’m amazed at how persistent the Lake Superior ice pack has been!
Lake Superior ice causes shipping delays
The Associated Press
April 26, 2014
DULUTH, MINN. — Thick ice on Lake Superior is causing shipping delays, with about 60 ships waiting to enter the area, according to the Coast Guard.
http://www.fortmilltimes.com/2014/04/26/3440671/lake-superior-ice-causes-shipping.html
Having lost all hope of getting it right, the warmistas are now concentrating on a tiny area down in the Antarctic by carrying out detailed field studies, I mean computer simulations, telling us that we shall all drown if the ice in east Antarctica were to melt.
Read this and laugh:
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/05/140505104435.htm
being picked up by the MSM. Alister puts all the scary stuff first….and finally mentions it would take thousands of years to happen!
5 May: Reuters: Alister Doyle: East Antarctica more at risk than thought to long-term thaw: study
Part of East Antarctica is more vulnerable than expected to a thaw that could trigger an unstoppable slide of ice into the ocean and raise world sea levels for thousands of years, a study showed on Sunday.
The Wilkes Basin in East Antarctica, stretching more than 1,000 km (600 miles) inland, has enough ice to raise sea levels by 3 to 4 meters (10-13 feet) if it were to melt as an effect of global warming, the report said…
East Antarctica’s Wilkes Basin is like a bottle on a slant. Once uncorked, it empties out,” Matthias Mengel of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, lead author of the study in the journal Nature Climate Change, said in a statement.
Co-author Anders Levermann, also at Potsdam in Germany, told Reuters the main finding was that the ice flow would be irreversible, if set in motion. He said there was still time to limit warming to levels to keep the ice plug in place…
Worries about rising seas that could swamp low-lying areas from Shanghai to Florida focus most on ice in Greenland and West Antarctica, as well as far smaller amounts of ice in mountain ranges from the Himalayas to the Andes.
Sunday’s study is among the first to gauge risks in East Antarctica, the biggest wedge of the continent and usually considered stable. “I would not be surprised if this (basin) is more vulnerable than West Antarctica,” Levermann said…
The study indicated that it could take 200 years or more to melt the ice plug if ocean temperatures rise. Once removed, it could take between 5,000 and 10,000 years for ice in the Wilkes Basin to empty as gravity pulled the ice seawards.
“It sounds plausible,” Tony Payne, a professor of glaciology at Bristol University who was not involved in the study, said of the findings. The region is not an immediate threat, he said, but “could contribute meters to sea level rise over thousands of years.”…
Click here to see the study…
http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/05/05/us-climatechange-antarctica-idINKBN0DK0HM20140505
My adaptive anomaly helps to see what is happening behind the large recent variability that makes it hard to visualise what is going on since 2007
http://climategrog.wordpress.com/2013/09/16/on-identifying-inter-decadal-variation-in-nh-sea-ice/
There’s a pretty string up tick at the end and it looks like we’re about half way through bounce back from the 2012 minimum, similar to what happened after 2007. That rebound is about at its peak , I would expect a slight drop in 2016,2017. The latter will be the next minimum but not as low as 2012.
I expect the linear trend from 2012-2017 to be a recovery equal and opposite to the 2007-2012 downward slope.
Some schoolars needs to learn about vulcanos in the Ocean, Archimedes principle as well as that it’s never ever in accordance of Theory of Science to “correct” measured figures – as I wrote in 2010: http://norah4you.wordpress.com/aktuell-debatt/klimathotet/when-the-fox-counts-the-chickens/
hope this comes true
It will need a fair few years for the pattern to be confirmed but I think the underlying inter-decadal variation is roughly 135+/-10y folded sine: abs(sin(2.pi.(y-2011)/135)) , the inflection point of which was probably 2011.
It is already clear that the down parabolic curve of “run-away” melting is a failed model and I think the there are indications that the recovery will happen just as quickly as the 2000-2011 drop, not a smooth bottoming out over 30 years.
If this does happen, don’t expect any great public awakening for a few years. In my personal experience with people who “believe but don’t really think about it”, those poor polar bears are still one of the most powerful arguments out there.
Most of them will accept that the “really bad weather wasn’t really that unusual” when you prod their memories about past storms / snow / heatwaves / whatever within their lifetime. But few of them have ever actually experienced arctic ice so, if they’re told it’s all disappearing, they have nothing to compare with and no reason to disbelieve.
So, if a “recovery” does happen, expect the Club to simply stop talking about it – then it’ll be back to the old story of expending lots of energy on reminding people about all the doom predictions before even starting on “and it hasn’t happened”.
Soon we may find ourselves saving polar bears from certain extinction due to too much sea ice. Caused – of course – by man-made CO2 emissions.
Nick Stokes: “The JAXA number is now lower than any May 5 since 2006.”
JAXA is now meaningless as a long term record, since they moved the goal posts just before last years minimum. We now have TWO Jaxa records: pre-2013 JAXA and JAXA2013-on.
The new JAXA record may be of use in another 20 years when it has sufficient length to be of interest. Yet more pathetic attempts to adjust the data instead of correcting climate science.
If the ice won’t melt , we’d better change the way we measure it !
If there was an irrefutable reason to change the method of calculation it should have been released with a new name as a new series not as continuation of the same thing . This is misleading and you were misled.
Na..more than average ice this summer will just be brushed away as “natural variaton”, nothing to see, move on please…it will take a number of years of increasing summer ice and a clear cooling trend to remove this red herring.
There’s more to this than AMO, though the long term rate of change in ice roughly matches the long term movements in N. Atlantic SST:
http://climategrog.wordpress.com/?attachment_id=160
Hang on a minute here. We’re making news out of predictions coming out of a model?
I thought we didn’t like it when others do that.
I wonder if this guy ever got his PhD?
http://www.sierraclub.ca/en/AdultDiscussionPlease
He seems to have the same grasp of reality as any other ‘consensus scientist’.
TRM says: “So PDO is negative, AMO is negative and the sun is quiet….”
Except the PDO has been positive for the first three months this year.
“Once it flips, this red herring of climate panic will be gone.”
But hopefully not forgotten.
Those who have profited from and perpetuated this histeria should not be let off.
With the global sea ice anomaly sitting around +1 million sq kms here’s hoping the Arctic does something interesting this summer to kick the crutch from under the pedlars of non-science.
dp says:
May 5, 2014 at 8:53 pm
A quick look at the IRAC-JAXA Arctic sea ice charts shows the duration of the freeze cycle is much shorter in recent years even as the capacity to freeze as seen by the rate of growth in sea ice volume over the season is nearly unchanged year on year.
It has nothing at all to do with CO2. Anyone care to proffer an explanation or convince me I’m misunderstanding what I see?
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You’re not really misunderstanding what you see but you are overstating it. I have all the data going back to 1979 (courtesy of JAXA/TOKAI UNIVERSITY) and that shows the following.
Average refreeze time in days (i.e. the time between recorded minima and maxima) for each season:-
1981-1990 : 180 days
1991-2000 : 178 days
2001-2010 : 176 days
2011-2014 : 176 days.
So, by my maths, that is a decrease in the average refreeze ‘season’ of 2.22% since records began. Interestingly, the refreeze time in 1981 was 183 days and in 2014 was 189 days.
Mike T says: “Being forecasted”? how about plain old “being forecast”. “Forecast” is an irregular verb and doesn’t take the -ed for past or any other tense.
Yeah I hate that too Mike but I think it’s American English, so I don’t really care because I love Joe’s stuff. He’s usually right on the money.
Just wait and watch the Arctic sea ice increase and the Antarctic sea ice start to decrease. There’s a sixty something year cycle here ( Willis will hate me for that, and I don’t really care), with the Arctic and Antarctic almost but not quiet antiphase.
Interested to see if Joe has any comment on this.
Here is the acclaimed Arctic climate scientist Professor Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University. He may or may not turn out to be right but he has said that the IPCC is too conservative with its Arctic ice free projection. We will have to wait and see.
Then we have this other chap following closely ahead and behind Wadhams. He is the acclaimed climate scientist Arctic ice modeller Professor Wieslaw Maslowski.
Earlier
Later
Regarding the noticeable upward trend in Antarctic sea ice cover over recent years:
I’m sure I read somewhere that the atmosphere above sea ice can cool by up to 30°C due to the lack of heat exchange and the increased albedo or reflectivity. Could a feedback thus develop to accelerate ice formation?
Can or will the noticeable upward trend in Antarctic sea ice cover over recent years have any impact on global temperatures?
I’d be grateful if somebody with more knowledge than me could give me some more information on this.
Hey Joe Bastardi, did you already get a call from the President?
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/205195-obama-to-talk-climate-with-meteorologists