Significant Arctic Sea Ice Story a Possibility This Year

Joe Bastardi writes on the Patriot Post:

There is a huge event being forecasted this year by the CFSV2, and I don’t know if anyone else is mentioning this. For the first time in over a decade, the Arctic sea ice anomaly in the summer is forecast to be near or above normal for a time! While it has approached the normals at the end of the winter season a couple of times because of new ice growth, this signals something completely different – that multiyear growth means business – and it shows the theory on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is likely to be on target.

Once it flips, this red herring of climate panic will be gone. Global and Southern Hemisphere anomalies are already unmentionable since the former is well above normal and the latter is routinely busting daily records.

The biggest minimum anomalies are in the summer since this flipped, and the only peaks came very close to the height of winters once this melting was underway.

Now look at what the CFSV2 forecasted for 2012.

The brief positive anomaly hit early, but for the summer it’s well below normal. In 2013, it’s the same, though not as far.

But this year it’s forecast to be around normal in August!

This is only with a yearly AMO back off. I don’t think this is the real deal of the flip yet. But it makes the point that one can correlate the ice in the Arctic with the Atlantic cycle.

It should be obvious as to who is the boss here, and with the warm AMO in its waning years, the Arctic sea ice hysteria will wind up where so many agenda driven items do – on the ash heap of history.

This, if correct, is going to be a huge story. It would be the first summer where Arctic sea ice returned to near normal, indicative of the increase in multiyear ice and what a turn to the colder AMO in the future means! Let’s see if anyone else picks up on it.

Read his full story here: http://patriotpost.us/opinion/25340

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More on CFSv2 here: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/

 

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TRM

So PDO is negative, AMO is negative and the sun is quiet. I’m insulating more this summer. I get the bad feeling that Dr Libby was right (and Dr Easterbrook and others).
Now which way does the wind blow? That seems crucial as well for artic ice. Is there any correlation between negative AMO and wind direction?

MattN

There was a 50% increase in ice volume at then end of summer last year according to Cryosat. For some reason, hardly anyone mentioned this.

Mike T

“Being forecasted”? how about plain old “being forecast”. “Forecast” is an irregular verb and doesn’t take the -ed for past or any other tense.

SAMURAI

Because of the rare Arctic Vortex phenomenon experienced over North America this year (imagine a freezer door open for weeks on end ) bitter cold Arctic air escaped the Arctic and spilled down to as far as Florida.
Accordingly, this was the WARMEST Arctic winter since the DMI started records in 1958, with Arctic temps as much as 15C warmer than the 1958~2002 mean temperature for months on end.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
Because this was the warmest Arctic winter on record, it seems logical that less/thinner ice would have formed in the Arctic, so it seems logical that during the warm summer months, Arctic ice will disappear very quickly this year and come close to the 2007 or even the 2012 record lows.
I’d hate to see this happen as the Obama administration and the warmunists will hammer this point incessantly this summer at the same time warm global temperatures from the El Nino event will be occurring….
Of course if there IS a low Arctic Minimum, the warmunists will conveniently “forget” to mention this was a result of the Arctic Vortex/record cold North American winter, and the hot summer temperatures will be a direct result of the the El Nino cycle; not CO2 warming…
And so it goes…..until reason and freedom are restored…

4 eyes

And the Antarctic ice anomaly plot looks sort of like a….er. … hockey stick.

Ed Mertin

This coming winter weather will seem harsher in many ways because the south will get whacked as the El Niño gets set in? More moisture to frozen precipitation too…

James at 48

Big pile ups of ice along Greenland’s Arctic shore and the Canadian Archipelago successive years “obducted” pack over adjacent pack, doubling or tripling the thickness. Thank the wind patterns and currents for that. Slowly the multiyear built up. And now, with a favorable oscillation set, things may get interesting.

Pamela Gray

Anyone with a lick of sense can see that the ice loss that happened primarily in the Barents and Greenland Sea ice has been driven by a warm incoming current there http://www.aquatic.uoguelph.ca/oceans/ArticOceanWeb/Currents/inflow.htm. That warm current would most certainly be affected by the AMO. File this one under “duh”.
The climate house of cards continues to tumble. Too bad we don’t have the stomach in our elected officials to make heads tumble.
What keeps us from solving this problem is that most politicians have a wide variety of skeletons in their closets. So if one were to lop off the head of ones climate change opponent, you can bet his or her buddies will be taking a sneak peek into the lopper’s closet.

Pamela Gray

Samurai, you might want to read up on how Arctic sea ice forms and how it is moved around in and out of the Arctic. I would say that you have several misconceptions in your comment.

An Inquirer

Definitely a meteorology amateur here, but I think it is very unlikely that both poles will have positive ice anomaly. Hot and Cold conditions often occur because of blockage and/or abnormal flows. Therefore, when the weather is unusually warm in one spot on the globe, it is unusually cold in another spot.
That being said, I do recognize the Antarctic is quite meteorologically isolated from the rest of the world. So if the ice stays high in the Antarctic, and if air masses / jet stream keep the Arctic cold in the Arctic, and IF the ocean currents relent on bring warm water into the Arctic, and if Chinese soot is not much of an issue in the Arctic, then yes, I can Joe having a chance at positive anomalies in both poles.

Rob Ricket

This is welcome news. Myself and few others have mentioned the fact that ice distribution graphic depictions (Cryosphere Today) have indicated much stronger (dark purple shading) coverage than most equivalent dates for the past 33 years. It is quite obvious that the sea ice in the Arctic ocean is thickening in coverage and multi-year growth; while sea ice at the edge of the circle continues to recede. Until this trend reverses, it will be impossible to approach record levels established for the the winter months, because the area under expansion is confined to the Arctic Ocean, while areas outside the treeline (that melt in the Summer anyway) continue to recess.
On balance, methinks the the aggregate Arctic sea ice mass is much greater than the alarmist’s will admit. This includes NSIDC who no doubt, know where their bread is buttered.

Mike McMillan

So if the polar bears can hang on for another year, they may avoid extinction? That’s bad news for the seals.

HAL-9000

It frankly does not matter what the earth does, the Church of Carbontology will adjust models as needed same way more antique priests did with entrails. When you’ve got the President’s ‘science’ advisor blaming snowstorms in Atlanta on a dog whistle phrase like ‘climate change,’ the ideological dye is cast.
You hear anecdotes about these kinds of people – literally same ones in some cases – being worried about global cooling back in the seventies; but frankly there is no comparison to the modern Carbontology movement in its staying power and increasingly absolutist sheen. Go skim Skeptical Science – the buffoons barely talk about natural sciences, when they do its always about a videogame model – instead they’re currently wallowing in another ‘psychoanalysis’ shtick with another hoped-for catchy label: ‘The Quantum Theory of Climate Denial.’
They don’t care what the ice does one year or another, they care about their movement.

dp

Might this indicate a mechanism whereby heat in the deep ocean is driven to the surface and which expresses itself as El Niño?
Couple noodles about Arctic sea ice. The environment at the poles has in varying degrees, a capacity to freeze or thaw, depending on the season. Another characteristic is a duration of opportunity for freezing or thawing. What we see year on year is the capacity to freeze or thaw appears rather fixed as indicated by the rate of ice gain or loss. What has changed over time is the duration, or more clearly, the length of the seasons for freezing or thawing.
A quick look at the IRAC-JAXA Arctic sea ice charts shows the duration of the freeze cycle is much shorter in recent years even as the capacity to freeze as seen by the rate of growth in sea ice volume over the season is nearly unchanged year on year.
It has nothing at all to do with CO2. Anyone care to proffer an explanation or convince me I’m misunderstanding what I see?

Henry Clark

While the AMO index is merely a temperature index itself (following a pattern of two peaks in the past century a lot like an unfudged version of global temperature history and solar-CRF forcing), growth in arctic ice extent should continue later this decade. I say continue because, in annual averages rather than common cherry picking of single months, a little known fact is that it has been rising over the past half decade since 2007, as seen within one of the plots in my usual http://tinyurl.com/nbnh7hq

Anna Keppa

“For the first time in over a decade, the Arctic sea ice anomaly in the summer is forecast to be near or above normal for a time! ”
Can someone help me out here? I looked on wikipedia, and “anomaly” has many meanings in different contexts, but virtually all involve something odd, unusual, abnormal, strange.
So…how can an anomaly be said to be near or above normal….for a time? How is this term used in measuring/discussing sea ice? Anomalous to what??? How can an anomaly be normal?

Jbird

The process may have already started. On April 15 I flew over the Greenland ice cap from Kulusuk to Nuuk, across the lower Baffin Bay and Davis Strait and on across Hudson Bay – more than 2500 miles of Arctic. The Baffin Bay and Davis Strait were completely choked with ice, so was Hudson Bay. Lake Winnipeg was completely frozen solid rim to rim.
The Canadian coast guard has warned all marine traffic wanting to use the Davis Strait and lower Baffin Bay that it may be a long time before ships can safely travel there this year. It is more ice than they have seen in 30 years time.
The ice pack off of the east coast of Greenland extended 150 miles (minimum) into the Strait of Denmark. The Greenland ice cap was a vast expanse of white as far as the eye could see. All taken together the conditions seemed more like February or early March than April..
Just sayin’

Ja
We are cooling from the tops dow
Is what I said

Mike McMillan says at 8:29 pm: So if the polar bears can hang on for another year, they may avoid extinction? That’s bad news for the seals.
——– ——————- ——————– —————
Or for the humans that aren’t in cages:

Evan Jones

So…how can an anomaly be said to be near or above normal
He’ll be meaning for the average of the 1981 – 2010 time period. “Zero anomaly” would be the average.

Alan Robertson

SAMURAI says:
May 5, 2014 at 7:46 pm
“… as the Obama administration…”
___________________________
I’ve also been making that mistake, calling this “the Obama administration”. While publicly flaunting seized and egregious power devoid of any constitutional authority and outside the scope of common law, this has become the Obama dictatorship.

Anna Keppa – “Anomaly” in this context is the amount by which a value differs from a given baseline. The baseline is typically an average from an arbitrarily-chosen period, typically a recent 3-decade period, but it could be any period (and should be documented alongside the anomaly measurements). So a “temperature anomaly” of minus 1 degree, say, means a temperature that is 1 degree below the baseline (ie. the chosen average). In the case that you cite, “normal” means an anomaly of zero. One example of the use of anomalies would be for comparing monthly temperatures free of seasonal differences. In this case, all Januaries would be averaged over the chosen period, all Februaries, etc. A January “temperature anomaly” would then be the difference between that January’s temperature and the January average. Ditto, Feb, etc. Comparing, say, the Feb anomaly with the Jan anomaly then indicates the underlying (non-seasonal) temperature change in Feb. If that doesn’t make sense then hopefully someone else will provide a better explanation…

Anna Keppa says:
May 5, 2014 at 9:03 pm

(commenting on this from the original article.)
“For the first time in over a decade, the Arctic sea ice anomaly in the summer is forecast to be near or above normal for a time! ”

So…how can an anomaly be said to be near or above normal….for a time? How is this term used in measuring/discussing sea ice? Anomalous to what??? How can an anomaly be normal?

Well, over the years the “official” agencies in charge of being “official” have claimed to calculate a running average of what area of sea ice is expected each day-of-year. Thus, if what sea ice is actually present on some given day-of-year is NOT what is expected to be that “average” then it must be different from that average, or “anomalous” ..
Plot the trend of that “difference from average” and you get the daily anomaly of arctic ice. So, over time, the anomaly may be below average, right at average (zero) or above average for that day-of-year.
Speaking of which, today’s Antarctic sea ice extents anomaly – that “little bit of “excess” antarctic sea ice that the dictatorship and all government-funded academics are ignoring?
Today’s Antarctic sea ice extents “excess” is 1.58 Mkm^2 … or right at 93% of the size of Greenland’s ice cap. That’s right.
The excess Antarctic sea ice extents is 93% the size of the entire Greenland ice cap.
Worse, the Antarctic sea ice anomaly has been steadily increasing, and has been positive continuously since May 2010 – four years now. So, when will it close the Cape Horn to shipping? 8 years? 10 years? 12 years?

The CSFv2 minimum forecast (in May) for 2012 was about 5.3 million sq km. In June, WUWT submitted 4.9. Ended up at 3.41.
This year the CSFv2 minimum forecast is about 6 million sq km. It’s a chancy business.
The JAXA number is now lower than any May 5 since 2006.

Does anybody check?
“CAUTION: Seasonal climate anomalies shown here are not the official NCEP seasonal forecast outlooks. The NCEP seasonal forecast outlooks can be found at CPC website. Model based seasonal climate anomalies are one factor based on which NCEP seasonal forecast outlook is issued. ”
This particular model looks to have been in operation since 2011 ( version 2)
Its always good to check the validation of the model..
http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/cfsv2/docs.html
read the AMS paper.

John

As always, I let reality and not models tell me what is happening. When temps hadn’t risen by only, say, 10 years, it mattered to me. If this reversal occurs, it will matter to many of us. And if it doesn’t happen, that is again listening to reality and not models.
Yet a reversal of sea ice extent, one that lasts for several years to a couple of decades or more, that would be amazing to the chattering classes.
In terms of actual warming, it wouldn’t be amazing as no increase in temperatures for 16 years and running.
But in terms of confirmation of the dominance of natural variability, there wouldn’t be anything more shocking that to see Arctic sea ice once again start to expand for a while. Since there wouldn’t be any way to explain it away, such an event would probably be ignored as much as possible by MSM, with every weather event continually hogging the headlines.

Richard M

As has been the case for several years now the summer minimum will be determined by the winds over the next 4 months. If the winds blow the ice out into the North Atlantic then there will be a low minimum. If the winds tend to push the ice towards land areas then the minimum will be higher. Interestingly, when the winds do blow the ice out to be melted it also keeps the anomaly value lower for awhile making it look like there is more ice.

CRS, DrPH

I’m amazed at how persistent the Lake Superior ice pack has been!
Lake Superior ice causes shipping delays
The Associated Press
April 26, 2014 
DULUTH, MINN. — Thick ice on Lake Superior is causing shipping delays, with about 60 ships waiting to enter the area, according to the Coast Guard.
http://www.fortmilltimes.com/2014/04/26/3440671/lake-superior-ice-causes-shipping.html

bert

Having lost all hope of getting it right, the warmistas are now concentrating on a tiny area down in the Antarctic by carrying out detailed field studies, I mean computer simulations, telling us that we shall all drown if the ice in east Antarctica were to melt.
Read this and laugh:
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/05/140505104435.htm

pat

being picked up by the MSM. Alister puts all the scary stuff first….and finally mentions it would take thousands of years to happen!
5 May: Reuters: Alister Doyle: East Antarctica more at risk than thought to long-term thaw: study
Part of East Antarctica is more vulnerable than expected to a thaw that could trigger an unstoppable slide of ice into the ocean and raise world sea levels for thousands of years, a study showed on Sunday.
The Wilkes Basin in East Antarctica, stretching more than 1,000 km (600 miles) inland, has enough ice to raise sea levels by 3 to 4 meters (10-13 feet) if it were to melt as an effect of global warming, the report said…
East Antarctica’s Wilkes Basin is like a bottle on a slant. Once uncorked, it empties out,” Matthias Mengel of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, lead author of the study in the journal Nature Climate Change, said in a statement.
Co-author Anders Levermann, also at Potsdam in Germany, told Reuters the main finding was that the ice flow would be irreversible, if set in motion. He said there was still time to limit warming to levels to keep the ice plug in place…
Worries about rising seas that could swamp low-lying areas from Shanghai to Florida focus most on ice in Greenland and West Antarctica, as well as far smaller amounts of ice in mountain ranges from the Himalayas to the Andes.
Sunday’s study is among the first to gauge risks in East Antarctica, the biggest wedge of the continent and usually considered stable. “I would not be surprised if this (basin) is more vulnerable than West Antarctica,” Levermann said…
The study indicated that it could take 200 years or more to melt the ice plug if ocean temperatures rise. Once removed, it could take between 5,000 and 10,000 years for ice in the Wilkes Basin to empty as gravity pulled the ice seawards.
“It sounds plausible,” Tony Payne, a professor of glaciology at Bristol University who was not involved in the study, said of the findings. The region is not an immediate threat, he said, but “could contribute meters to sea level rise over thousands of years.”…
Click here to see the study…
http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/05/05/us-climatechange-antarctica-idINKBN0DK0HM20140505

Greg Goodman

My adaptive anomaly helps to see what is happening behind the large recent variability that makes it hard to visualise what is going on since 2007
http://climategrog.wordpress.com/2013/09/16/on-identifying-inter-decadal-variation-in-nh-sea-ice/
There’s a pretty string up tick at the end and it looks like we’re about half way through bounce back from the 2012 minimum, similar to what happened after 2007. That rebound is about at its peak , I would expect a slight drop in 2016,2017. The latter will be the next minimum but not as low as 2012.
I expect the linear trend from 2012-2017 to be a recovery equal and opposite to the 2007-2012 downward slope.

norah4you

Some schoolars needs to learn about vulcanos in the Ocean, Archimedes principle as well as that it’s never ever in accordance of Theory of Science to “correct” measured figures – as I wrote in 2010: http://norah4you.wordpress.com/aktuell-debatt/klimathotet/when-the-fox-counts-the-chickens/

angech

hope this comes true

Greg Goodman

It will need a fair few years for the pattern to be confirmed but I think the underlying inter-decadal variation is roughly 135+/-10y folded sine: abs(sin(2.pi.(y-2011)/135)) , the inflection point of which was probably 2011.
It is already clear that the down parabolic curve of “run-away” melting is a failed model and I think the there are indications that the recovery will happen just as quickly as the 2000-2011 drop, not a smooth bottoming out over 30 years.

If this does happen, don’t expect any great public awakening for a few years. In my personal experience with people who “believe but don’t really think about it”, those poor polar bears are still one of the most powerful arguments out there.
Most of them will accept that the “really bad weather wasn’t really that unusual” when you prod their memories about past storms / snow / heatwaves / whatever within their lifetime. But few of them have ever actually experienced arctic ice so, if they’re told it’s all disappearing, they have nothing to compare with and no reason to disbelieve.
So, if a “recovery” does happen, expect the Club to simply stop talking about it – then it’ll be back to the old story of expending lots of energy on reminding people about all the doom predictions before even starting on “and it hasn’t happened”.

Kasuha

Soon we may find ourselves saving polar bears from certain extinction due to too much sea ice. Caused – of course – by man-made CO2 emissions.

Greg Goodman

Nick Stokes: “The JAXA number is now lower than any May 5 since 2006.”
JAXA is now meaningless as a long term record, since they moved the goal posts just before last years minimum. We now have TWO Jaxa records: pre-2013 JAXA and JAXA2013-on.
The new JAXA record may be of use in another 20 years when it has sufficient length to be of interest. Yet more pathetic attempts to adjust the data instead of correcting climate science.
If the ice won’t melt , we’d better change the way we measure it !
If there was an irrefutable reason to change the method of calculation it should have been released with a new name as a new series not as continuation of the same thing . This is misleading and you were misled.

ConTrari

Na..more than average ice this summer will just be brushed away as “natural variaton”, nothing to see, move on please…it will take a number of years of increasing summer ice and a clear cooling trend to remove this red herring.

Greg Goodman

There’s more to this than AMO, though the long term rate of change in ice roughly matches the long term movements in N. Atlantic SST:
http://climategrog.wordpress.com/?attachment_id=160

Dermot O'Logical

Hang on a minute here. We’re making news out of predictions coming out of a model?
I thought we didn’t like it when others do that.

Arfur Bryant

I wonder if this guy ever got his PhD?
http://www.sierraclub.ca/en/AdultDiscussionPlease
He seems to have the same grasp of reality as any other ‘consensus scientist’.

TRM says: “So PDO is negative, AMO is negative and the sun is quiet….”
Except the PDO has been positive for the first three months this year.

mwhite

“Once it flips, this red herring of climate panic will be gone.”
But hopefully not forgotten.
Those who have profited from and perpetuated this histeria should not be let off.

With the global sea ice anomaly sitting around +1 million sq kms here’s hoping the Arctic does something interesting this summer to kick the crutch from under the pedlars of non-science.

Mr Green Genes

dp says:
May 5, 2014 at 8:53 pm
A quick look at the IRAC-JAXA Arctic sea ice charts shows the duration of the freeze cycle is much shorter in recent years even as the capacity to freeze as seen by the rate of growth in sea ice volume over the season is nearly unchanged year on year.
It has nothing at all to do with CO2. Anyone care to proffer an explanation or convince me I’m misunderstanding what I see?

===============================================
You’re not really misunderstanding what you see but you are overstating it. I have all the data going back to 1979 (courtesy of JAXA/TOKAI UNIVERSITY) and that shows the following.
Average refreeze time in days (i.e. the time between recorded minima and maxima) for each season:-
1981-1990 : 180 days
1991-2000 : 178 days
2001-2010 : 176 days
2011-2014 : 176 days.
So, by my maths, that is a decrease in the average refreeze ‘season’ of 2.22% since records began. Interestingly, the refreeze time in 1981 was 183 days and in 2014 was 189 days.

ColdinOz

Mike T says: “Being forecasted”? how about plain old “being forecast”. “Forecast” is an irregular verb and doesn’t take the -ed for past or any other tense.
Yeah I hate that too Mike but I think it’s American English, so I don’t really care because I love Joe’s stuff. He’s usually right on the money.
Just wait and watch the Arctic sea ice increase and the Antarctic sea ice start to decrease. There’s a sixty something year cycle here ( Willis will hate me for that, and I don’t really care), with the Arctic and Antarctic almost but not quiet antiphase.
Interested to see if Joe has any comment on this.

Jimbo

Here is the acclaimed Arctic climate scientist Professor Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University. He may or may not turn out to be right but he has said that the IPCC is too conservative with its Arctic ice free projection. We will have to wait and see.

Daily Telegraph – 8 November 2011
Arctic sea ice ‘to melt by 2015’
Prof Wadhams said: “His [model] is the most extreme but he is also the best modeller around.
“It is really showing the fall-off in ice volume is so fast that it is going to bring us to zero very quickly. 2015 is a very serious prediction and I think I am pretty much persuaded that that’s when it will happen.”
——-
Guardian – 17 September 2012
Arctic expert predicts final collapse of sea ice within four years
“This collapse, I predicted would occur in 2015-16 at which time the summer Arctic (August to September) would become ice-free. The final collapse towards that state is now happening and will probably be complete by those dates”.
——-
Financial Times Magazine – 2 August 2013
“It could even be this year or next year but not later than 2015 there won’t be any ice in the Arctic in the summer,”
——-
The Scotsman – 12 September 2013
Arctic sea ice will vanish within three years, says expert
“The entire ice cover is now on the point of collapse.
“The extra open water already created by the retreating ice allows bigger waves to be generated by storms, which are sweeping away the surviving ice. It is truly the case that it will be all gone by 2015. The consequences are enormous and represent a huge boost to global warming.”
——-
Guardian – 17 September 2012
This collapse, I predicted would occur in 2015-16 at which time the summer Arctic (August to September) would become ice-free. The final collapse towards that state is now happening and will probably be complete by those dates“.
——-
Arctic News – June 27, 2012
My own view of what will happen is: 1. Summer sea ice disappears, except perhaps for small multiyear remnant north of Greenland and Ellesmere Island, by 2015-16. 2. By 2020 the ice free season lasts at least a month and by 2030 has extended to 3 months…..

Jimbo

Then we have this other chap following closely ahead and behind Wadhams. He is the acclaimed climate scientist Arctic ice modeller Professor Wieslaw Maslowski.
Earlier

BBC News – 12 December 2007
Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007,”…….”So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative.”

Later

BBC News8 April 2011
New warning on Arctic sea ice melt
Scientists who predicted a few years ago that Arctic summers could be ice-free by 2013 now say summer sea ice will probably be gone in this decade……
“In the past… we were just extrapolating into the future assuming that trends might persist as we’ve seen in recent times,” said Dr Maslowski, who works at Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California…..
“We can run a fully coupled model for the past and present and see what our model will predict for the future in terms of the sea ice and the Arctic climate.”
And one of the projections it comes out with is that the summer melt could lead to ice-free Arctic seas by 2016 – “plus or minus three years”.

KRJ Pietersen

Regarding the noticeable upward trend in Antarctic sea ice cover over recent years:
I’m sure I read somewhere that the atmosphere above sea ice can cool by up to 30°C due to the lack of heat exchange and the increased albedo or reflectivity. Could a feedback thus develop to accelerate ice formation?
Can or will the noticeable upward trend in Antarctic sea ice cover over recent years have any impact on global temperatures?
I’d be grateful if somebody with more knowledge than me could give me some more information on this.

R. de Haan

Hey Joe Bastardi, did you already get a call from the President?
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/205195-obama-to-talk-climate-with-meteorologists