Ow, my brain. Below is the actual title of a publication referenced by Springerlink. While the title seems ridiculous, there is a valid point. The paper says it is from:
The Centre for Voting and Parties (Center for Valg og Partier, CVAP) is a research centreattached to the Department of Political Science at the University of Copenhagen.
For those who don’t know:
International Workers’ Day, also known as May Day, is a celebration of the international labour movement. May 1 is a national holiday in more than 80 countries and celebrated unofficially in many other countries. May Day has long been a focal point for demonstrations by various socialist, communist and anarchist groups commemorating the 1886 Haymarket affair in Chicago.
Of course, May Day goes back much further than that, and is a traditional ‘Spring Holiday’ in many countries. Some claim the earliest May Day celebrations appeared before the time of Christ. Here is the title:
It’s the weather, stupid! Individual participation in collective May Day demonstrations
Abstract
We investigate the possible explanations for variations in aggregate levels of participation in large-scale political demonstrations. A simple public choice inspired model is applied to data derived from the annual May Day demonstrations of the Danish labor movement and socialist parties taking place in Copenhagen in the period 1980–2011. The most important explanatory variables are variations in the weather conditions and consumer confidence, while political and socio-economic conditions exhibit no robust effects. As such accidental or non-political factors may be much more important for collective political action than usually acknowledged and possibly make changes in aggregate levels of political support seem erratic and unpredictable.
Source: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11127-012-9914-3
Excerpts:
Introduction
The number of participants taking part in political demonstrations is usually seen as an indication of the extent of popular support for the cause addressed by the demonstration. If there are many, ―the people‖ supports it, and if there are few they do not; if there are more than last time a comparable demonstration took place, popular support is on the rise, and if there are fewer it is waning.
Or so the popular logic would seem to go. However, demonstrations are instances of large -scale collective action where the participation of the average supporter will make no difference for the outcome, and where the benefits produced by the demonstration itself constitute a ―public good which will be shared by all sympathizers, irrespective of whether they themselves take part or not.
In contrast, the costs of participating in the demonstration will be concentrated and private. So, why should rational individuals demonstrate, when they know that there at least some personal costs involved and when their own participation will have no discernible net-effect on the outcome? Public choice theorists have been asking such questions for more than five decades…
…
In the present study we shall try to tackle this in a new way and with a novel type of data, namely by looking at May Day demonstrations such as those organized by labour unions and socialist parties in many countries each year on May 1st since the late 19th century.
These share the rather unique feature that they have been taking place regularly, over long time periods, organized by groups with basically very similar ideological beliefs, under the same set of symbols, at the exact same time of the year, and often at the same locations. What vary then are the socio-economic and political contexts, as well as the more accidental circumstances that may affect individual participation.
The conclusion says:
The most important factors for the explanation of turn-out seems to be whether the weather is sufficiently pleasant for people to fight for what they believe is a better and more just society.
h/t to Dr. Richard Tol.
The paper is here: http://www.cvap.polsci.ku.dk/publikationer/arbejdspapirer/working_paper_3/kurrild-klitgaard_-_its_the_weather__stupid.pdf/
Weather has been a political force for years. It affects election turnout, wars (Battle of Leningrad and Invasion of Normandy for example) and many other variables. So, weather may very well affect weather you get turned onto being a socialist at a May Day celebration.
See:
CLIMATE, WEATHER, AND POLITICAL BEHAVIOR by Alexander H Cohen
http://ir.uiowa.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2598&context=etd
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Nonsense. Climate change will turn y’all into socialists.
True. When it’s below freezing, the AGW rallies seem to be poorly represented.
The weather? Nonsense, it’s money. Quite a few protesters at Occupy Wall Street demonstrations were paid a pretty decent sum of money to be there.
One other thing. It could also be a party atmosphere. It’s not unusual for young men to take part in these things because, well, the young women.
Now, it’s not like I would know that because I ever took part in such a protest pretty much only for that reason. Ok, I have. In the early 90s I took part in a massive protest (one of the protesters claimed there were a million participants but I’m suspicious as to whether she counted them). Anyway, the protest involved a woman’s rights issue (and you’re not going to pry out of me what it was). Anyway, it was somewhat stunning how many of the young women were itching to get arrested. And it was strictly for bragging rights. Let’s party!
Typo last sentance, second “weather” should be “whether”.
When global warming got outed by data manipulator whistleblowers, they rebranded to climate change and extreme weather (courtesy geoengineering) is their new proof.
Dunno about politics, but here in Britain the morris dancers turn out, rain or shine and usually at dawn. And that’s certainly way older than any international workers’ day.
The San Francisco Chronicle has this nonsense today.
Make a comment if you like. Crazy folks in S.F. love their Mayday propaganda. The need some education.
Do you remember?….. I remember when I was a little girl… . We made May Day “baskets” out of paper at school. We took them home. On May 1st, we carefully picked a small bouquet and placed it in our basket. Then, we furtively hurried to our grandma’s front door. We hung the basket on the door knob, knocked with gusto ……. and ran away — fast!
#(:))
Flowers. THAT is what May Day is about.
{knock – knock – knock} HAPPY MAY DAY, EVERYONE!
by katkapruskova on YouTube
Those dratted Envirostalinists…. even trying to take over May Day….. . They’d take over the world, if you let them…. (but — we — won’t).
Richard Tol (@RichardTol) says:
May 1, 2014 at 10:04 am
Look, I can accept that climate change will turn me into a hobbit. I call dibs on the One Ring. I can see how AGW is swelling the ranks of working girls in various places. Heck, I’m even looking forward to the advent of small, cat eyed, climate optimized uberMann. But socialists?
That’s a bridge too far Dr. Tol.
Richie P. at 10:34am — Thanks for sharing that. LOL, you English are a lot of fun.
@Mark B
You’re just a socialist-in-denial. As the weather warms, you will recall the lyrics of The Internationale.
@ur momisugly Mark Bofill — Great post (10:51am) — neat summary. And love the bottom line — yes!
@ur momisugly Richard T — lol.
American socialists take May Day for a Communist holiday much more seriously than most Europeans do from what I’ve seen. 1982, what seems like another life time. I was an SF soldier on a team working a joint UW exercise with our Italian counterparts in the Apennine mountains NE of Pisa.
We had traversed over hill and dale being chased by Italian mountain troops. Having finally shaken them we entered a small Italian alpine village where we were to set up a base of operations.
Sweaty, stinking, carrying heavy rucksacks and weapons the citizens of the village poured out of their cantina and embraced us Americans like we were long lost relatives. They did their best to drag us into the bar for drinks but we just couldn’t.
We were there for 10 days hiding out a warehouse used to store the locally produced Chianti during the season and running training and training operations from that village. They never divulged our location to the Caribanari (Italian national police) or any other authorities that were looking for us as part of the exercise. They treated us very well and even hosted an 8 course Italian meal for us the day before we exfiltrated once our notional war was over. Only at that dinner did I learn that the whole village was communist. I also learned that we were the first American soldiers to have entered that village since WW II.
For anyone ever planning to visit Europe or anywhere else. See the high points but leave plenty of time to get off the beaten path because that is where the real treasures are found.
Socialists of the World: Read-it-and-weep:
Capitalism is alive and well.
“The luxury category has posted 10 consecutive months of sales increases compared with the year earlier, … .
BMW this week said it more than doubled its quarterly profit from a year ago as sales rose 16.5 percent; Porsche said its first-half profit rose 59 percent; and Mercedes-Benz said July sales of its high-end S-Class sedans — some of which cost more than $200,000 — jumped nearly 14 percent in the United States.”
{Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/04/business/sales-of-luxury-goods-are-recovering-strongly.html?_r=0}
Bwah, ha, ha, ha, haaaaaaa!
The “poor” of free market societies do not remain in that classification.
They move up.
Socialists keep them there for the rest of their lives.
@ur momisugly RAH — So glad to see you post! Ever since you told us about the horrendous, icy, scary, drive that lay ahead of you a couple months ago, I’ve hoped you made it okay. ((iprayedforyoutoo -you’re included in my regular “professional drivers” prayer, too)
Apparently, you did! Nice post, too. DEFINITELY the way to truly “see the world.”
” higher than at any time in human history – and higher than it has been in hundreds of thousands of years.” – SF Chron
How do they know? Oh wait, it’s the MESSAGE, not the facts…it’s OK to lie so that the proles do the right thing (i.e. that which we want them to do….).
CO2 has been wayyy higher before – haven’t there been articles on here showing we’re almost at the MINIMUM for plant (and other) life? (/rant)
Have a happy May 1st everyone…here it’s a holiday, and most folks take tomorrow off too, so it’s a welcome four-day weekend….
D J Hawkins @ur momisugly 10:29
Pedant’s Law strikes – sentance…
Sod the workers !!
THIS ->( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5NeyotcMv-o ) is what Mayday is all about – Padstow 2011, wish I’d been there today.
OSS OSS wee OSS !!!
“David Chappell says:
May 1, 2014 at 11:57 am”
Reminds me of a WVU joke:
The W.V.U. football team was placed in a remedial English class.
The professor asked the class, “Does anyone know what comes after a sentence?”
All of the players raised their hands. “The appeal,”
they shouted with Mountaineer pride.
and
Q: How do you get a W.V.U. graduate off your porch?
A: Pay him for the pizza.
(sorry…I have relatives and (probably former) friends there…)
Weather or not Anthony meant to say whether, I think weather was appropriate. Appropriate regardless of the whether. I’m pretty sure he did that deliberately in that sentace.
Few labor unions in the US attribute any significance to May 1. Labor Day is the first Monday in September, so the only folks that tend take May 1 at all seriously in the US are Socialists and Communists. I knew plenty of union members, my dad was one, who were staunch Republicans on most things, NRA members, and at the same time were quite serious about not letting “management” take advantage of them (even Union management). I think many would have registered as political Independents given their druthers. As an historical note, the date of Labour day was advocated by both American labor organizations and the President of the US.
Jeff says:
May 1, 2014 at 11:42 am …
Yep, and the planet is also the coldest it has been in about half-a-billion years.
And Earth Day – April 22 – also is Lenin’s birthday. Oklahoma City, Waco, Boston, and various other atrocities seem to happen more frequently this time of year. Like sap rising in trees, craziness blossoms.
Another group in the US that notes Labor Day are the BBQ’ers, as that’s the unofficial end of the
Barbeque season (ironically, over here it’s the start (May1)).
With the occupy movement and its ilk, May1 (and the other Green Holy Day, April 22) will probably get more notice…
Only thing I remember about Labor Day in the US was that I usually had to work 🙁
Hmmm,that’s why it’s called labor day…