Last weekend, I conducted a poll asking this question that has been on my mind for a couple of years:
Is it time for an “official” climate skeptics organization, one that produces a policy statement, issues press releases, and provides educational guidance?
The results are in, seen below, and there is an interesting dichotomy that can be observed in the excercise.
I’ve closed the poll with a count of 2701 votes. While there was a clearly decisive result, there were over 440 comments on the thread, many of which argued for “no”. A common reason discussed was that “organizing skeptics is like herding cats” or that “it will provide a target”. While that may be true, I really wasn’t all that interested in herding or target practice, I was thinking about representation. By its nature, all representation of varied viewpoints of a group of people is imperfect, but it does have its advantages if that representation satisfies a common need. The common need I see is getting a slowdown on the freight train of bureaucracy that is growing from CAGW claims and more coverage in media.
Pointman writes about the poll results and that dichotomy in Get real, get organised and finish it.
Anthony Watts recently ran a poll at WUWT that posed the question – “Is it time for an “official” climate skeptics organization, one that produces a policy statement, issues press releases, and provides educational guidance?”
I voted “yes” and I’d like to outline my reasons for doing so.
Any scattered and disparate opposition to an unjust law, policy or controversial issue which doesn’t get organised under some umbrella organisation is not only politically naïve but a consequently weak faction which doesn’t need to be taken seriously. More often than not, they’re comfortable in their armchairs living in their own deluded and secluded cloud cuckoo land.
There’s nicer ways of saying it but if want to be a force to be reckoned with, you have to get all ganged up. You seriously want to take on that exploitive employer, get unionised brothers and sisters. You want political change, form a lobby group. You don’t want that wind farm monstrosity blighting your life, start a local campaigning group. You want equal civil rights irrespective of the colour of your ass, start marching en masse. You want women to have the vote, get those bustles out of the drawing rooms and onto the streets as a mob waving placards and make the powers that be listen to you.
There’s simply no other way to get an issue onto the political agenda, and if you happen to think global warming isn’t a political thing, you pop that blue pill brother and dream on.
Give people a standard they can rally to and if the cause has real popular support, they’ll flock to it and become a bigger voice which will be heard despite any attempts to suppress it. Those attempts will just serve to strengthen group identity and make it a much more powerful force.
The deep primordial history of us as a species is all about getting together and cooperation. You might be rubbish at knapping a flint spearhead, but as long as one of the group can do that specialist thing, everyone is happy. Crap at tracking game? No matter, that runty kid over there is somehow brilliant at it. You might just be a spear carrier, but you know you play your part for the good of everyone else. That compulsion to gang up and work together is by now deeply embedded in our DNA. It’s been selected for. Without it, civilisation would fall apart in a day.
The worst thing you can ever do is sit in grumpy isolation doing nothing more than bitching away to a few cronies, and that’s exactly what’s all too common across the skeptic blogosphere. I call it the whinge and dump mentality and in the whole history of the human race, it’s never achieved anything other than being known as a complete bore to be avoided at all costs. Here they come – run away, run away!
As I look at the poll results to date, out of 2,683 votes cast, the response was 63% Yes, 24% No and the rest going for unsure. Scanning through the five hundred comments below the piece, a substantial majority expressed a “No” for various reasons. That’s an interesting dichotomy but an unsurprising one given the web dynamics of such a controversial issue as global warming.
There are just simply too many polarised people on either side who’ve spent years doing nothing more than venting spleen at each other. It’s become a social activity, a recreational pastime, a macho ego trip, a catharsis for a lot of tangential frustrations. Log in quickly, hurl an insult or two and surf onto the next brawl. Underneath the most combative blogs, out of hundreds of comments, barely a single digit percentage of the comments even reference the original blog topic, whatever it was.
Full essay here: http://thepointman.wordpress.com/2014/04/24/get-real-get-organised-and-finish-it/
He’s right, it has become a social spleen venting activity, and that my friends doesn’t get much traction.
This passage:
More often than not, they’re comfortable in their armchairs living in their own deluded and secluded cloud cuckoo land.
There’s nicer ways of saying it but if want to be a force to be reckoned with, you have to get all ganged up.
Could just as easily be used to describe crazy Bill McKibben. Most of us think he’s nuts, and he most likely is. The difference is he got out of his “armchairs living in their own deluded and secluded cloud cuckoo land” and formed 350.org. Now look at what we have, an organization that has successfully lobbied for blocking the Keystone pipeline by affecting the office of presidency. Do you think weepy Bill could do that himself without having organized first?
Think about it, and sound off in comments.
A couple of things: once you organize, you become a lobby, a “consensus” lobby. And you have to have set positions. As I understand climate skepticism, there is no set position, other than that the science is inconclusive and shouldn’t be used as a basis for policy at this time.
That said, there are lobbying organizations in Washington doing this work, although most are not exclusively devoted to climate alone. There is Heartland and AEI, just to name two. And then, there is the mythical “Big Oil.” (Didja get your check yet, Anthony?”) Seriously, there are energy affiliated groups who are trying to get the truth out because they understand that alternatives are ridiculously expensive and most likely unnecessary. There are a lot of people in Washington trying to do the right thing on climate, which at the moment, could best be characterized as “less is more.”
While it may be that these groups are not as noisy and as interesting to mainstream media as Big Green, they are working.
So while I might even join a lobbying anti-Big Green group, the situation is not as dire as it may seem and the polls reveal that. People do not rank global warming or climate change as very important in the list of issues that are problematic for Americans specifically and mankind in general.
Skepticism is not wholly compatible with activism. It’s the job of the activist to “Show Me” the truth about climate and it’s the job of the skeptic to apply reasoning, analysis, and common sense to the activist version of that truth. We do not have a carbon tax because of skepticism. Carbon trading schemes are a joke because of skepticism. So the informal, disorganized lobby is working. Okay, it’s not working with the Keystone Pipeline, but left-wing reactionaries are in control of the White House at the moment and that’s a problem that can’t be overcome. The public favors it overwhelmingly.
A formal lobby runs the risk of taking positions that may not be viable in the future. I know that’s never stopped the activist lobbies, but again, we are dealing with a different mindset.
In short, I’m skeptical of any activist organization, pro or con.
To continue my previous post, I’ve been looking for the proper road to take. It could be Knowledge Management, plausibly fit as curator for – at least in principle it does include – Verification, for organisations of all kinds, and individuals. I know it can be nebulous, often not ‘present’ really. At least, here is part of a kind of manifest acknowledging it hasn’t lived up to what it could have been, but still could become, from: Easterby-Smith, M, M Crossan, and D Nicolini, 2000. Organizational learning: Debates past, present and future. The Journal of Management Studies 38(6): 783-796.:
” … the time is ripe to start addressing learning and knowing in the light of inherent conflicts between shareholders’ goals, economic pressure, institutionalized professional interest and political agendas.”
I voted against, because I think such an organization would be ineffective. However, I would support such an organization if it existed.
Yes, but it needs to be led by people with science “cred,” not politicians or marketers or media spin meisters.
If you’ve ever read the “about me” at my place, you’d know why I blog. There’s a little bugger of a thorn that burrows deep into your soul and you’ll never quite wiggle out.
Anthony teed up a ball and I happened to be the one who obligingly hit it hard, but speaking as a badly lapsed Catholic, God has no other hands but ours, as a commenter reminded me.
Sure, we’ve problems putting it together but none that we can’t overcome. Like Anthony, I’ve thought about this thing for a few years and now I suppose must put them down. I’ll get summat out for next weekend.
In the meantime, I’m sure we can discuss something more substantial than what it’s to be called.
Pointman
What I think would be helpful is a clear statement that we all can agree about, like the fact that the definitive conclusions being made are not supported by any definitive science. We need a policy statement so that our position is not misunderstood.
In my many years of commenting on newspaper articles and blogs I’ve found that CAGW believers assume- 1. I don’t believe the climate changes. 2. I don’t think CO2 is a greenhouse gas (or understand how that works) 3. I have been brainwashed by Fox or oil propaganda and am unable to think for myself or understand basic science. 4. I don’t care about the environment. 5. I believe in conspiracies. 6.I must be dishonest to deny the “truth”.
I spend so much time correcting these basic misunderstandings that it ends up taking too much of my time. Clearing these points up so people in the mainstream understand where we are coming from will free time up to address the specific falsehoods and distortions being made by the media.
The majority of the population is either incapable of or unwilling to think for themselves. That is why the 97% consensus meme is so effective at making people conform to the ideology. Very few of these people have any understanding of climate science. When I share facts with people at social gatherings who have swallowed the kool aid they have looks of disbelief. They can’t believe that their worldview shaped by the media could be so wrong.
A credible skeptics organization with impeccable credentials (no ties to oil) would be helpful if it could gain a legitimate voice in the mainstream media.
All human institutions end up being corrupted by money and power issues. How can that be prevented?
richard says:
April 25, 2014 at 8:12 am
“when this happens you know something is changing,
German tv mocking green energy.”
As that is from our state media, it only indicates that the regime tests the usefulness of further CO2AGW scare tactics. Or maybe they allow a little satire right before the EU parliament election to maintain the illusion that there is freedom of opinion or a working media in Germany.
The state media are as controlled now as they were in the DDR.
I missed that poll and did not vote. i would say most definitely yes. I worked for a cabinet Minister some years back, a very competent and well respected public servant. Anytime someone would come to him with a serious and actionable concern, he’d ask them to put it in writing and send in a letter. my point being that one well presented argument in writing holds much much more weight than a bunch of people griping on blogs, not to denigrate blogs, but you get what I mean. Formal organisations hold much more weight than a bunch of loosely affiliated individuals. I say go for it. Organize. I will most definitley be willing to do anything I can to help.
Bill Sticker says:
April 25, 2014 at 7:50 am
“Snappy acronym required I think. The following came to mind.
I.S.I.S (International Society for Independent Science)”
I would discourage the ISIS idea as the name is likely to get you an appearance in front of a FISA court, given the general competency of the state.
Different goals. If you want to achieve a political outcome, you better get organised. If you want to get some knowledge on the inner workings of the climate system, you better stay away of organizations.
jaffa says:
April 25, 2014 at 6:45 am
“I think the word sceptic (that’s how it’s spelt where I come from) is unhelpful, it’s too easily associated with ‘naysayer’, ‘denier’ etc. It sounds like a group of grumpy old men that just like to oppose stuff for the sake of it :-|”
Worse; it is already taken by Randi’s promoters of consensus science. And by Dana’s Panzer command.
Anthony, your poll question did not ask whether YOU should form such an organization. Right now, you play a essential role and I’d be extra careful about doing anything that might interfere with your current function.
The CAGW consensus/religion is disintegrating already. Sure, maybe one of the currently existing organizations should expand their role or spin off something different. You might want to be involved, but founding such an organization might not be your best role.
Here’s my two cents:
While we may have varying opinions on a number of topics, I think there is one thing we all have in common and that is we are appalled with what passes as science these days. I think that should be the main focus of the organization. Maybe call it Bring Back Science or The Scientific Method. And rather than be political, I think it should be apolitical, but with a goal of eliminating policies based on bad science.
Perhaps there could be a rating system where papers and scientists are judged\rated on a number of criteria such as:
– Use of empirical data
– Openness of data and programs
– Past predictive value of a scientists work
– Precision of data and results
– Manipulation\adjustment of data and whether there is documentation and reasoning for doing so
– Cherry picking
– Use of weasel words: may, could, etc.
– Time scale of forecasts made
– Make open offers to scientists to visit the site and discuss there work in a moderated forum
– etc.
For me personally, I used to believe in global warming, but the more I researched it the more I was convinced that the science (proof) wasn’t there. It may be someday, but I believe that day is far away. What bother me most is how pseudo science is being used by politicians to force their ideological beliefs.
Lastly, I do not think the site should be limited to Climate science. I think the aim should be to discredit all forms of bad science, with a goal to restore the integrity that science once had.
Is it too late to join the poll ……… I was unaware of it … Please count me in for a YES. It’s high time that we do something to combat the fraudulent claims that are being made from right and left, by some who are definitely mentally deficient.
John Coleman says:
April 25, 2014 at 8:28 am
…But, I fear such a small group will not have much impact.
Absolutely right but even with 3M members the impact wouldn’t be enough to address the true cause of the problem. The UN is the true cause of the problem.
Fix the UN’s publisher’s clearing house approach to science with proper standards and practices and, IMO, the real issue is resolved.
In the interest of brevity- and because I realize it won’t do any good anyway, just a short comment where an entire book is required:
Pointman says: “There’s simply no other way to get an issue onto the political agenda, and if you happen to think global warming isn’t a political thing, you pop that blue pill brother and dream on.”
Now, what if your premise is NOT expanding the political agenda but reducing it? His notion is the equivalent of adding more leeches to cure anemia. I say ‘stop feeding the beast’.
He does not get it at all that ‘group identity’ and ‘flocking’ are antithetical the critical thinking which is done by individuals, only individuals and nothing but individuals.
Any collectivist, aware of his hidden premises or not, will naturally cry for more of what causes the disease of socialism and proclaim it as the solution- only this next time it will require a lot more blood and treasure – yours, of course, because the only reason gangsterism didn’t work out so well is because there wasn’t enough of it!
Being as how voting and paying taxes has always worked out so well in the past…. wait- that’s exactly how you got here- by many steps down this path, each time expecting a different outcome… ok- let’s try it again- it’ll be different this time- we just need a gang of our own so we have an authority to appeal to, so we can submerge reason in a sea of popularity polls, so we can find consensus…. wait.. didn’t Teh Team already do that? By god, we have to wave we-we too! If we aren’t just like them only more so- why, we can’t win at their game!
If you want to play that game, fine. The game is rigged. It’s only the individual who gets it – the players are gambling addicts with a problem that won’t be cured until they’re broke. That time is coming. If history is any guide, failure to make sufficient sacrifice will be blamed.
Fighting and winning are entirely different. You want to fight? You will lose.
You want to win? It won’t be done by playing the game.
Stop paying for it and it stops instantly.
Hey Pointman- you really should take the purple pill. It will give you strong powerful erections and then you can go around passing out pills when you wave it.
The organization could be modeled on NumbersUSA. In about a decade it has grown to 2 million members each of whom is politically empowered by the ability to send free faxes or phone calls to politicians expressing his or her views. For speed of response, a fax has a prefabricated wording but this wording can be changed to match the view of the sender. In this way, NumbersUSA has been organized as a coalition of people with similar but not identical views. Over the years, they have built up a technology for doing this that might be bought or leased from them.
NumbersUSA maintains a Washington DC office that lobbies on Capitol Hill for favorable legislation. These days, it is virtually impossible for Congress to pass a piece of legislation on immigration policy that is contrary to the desires of NumbersUSA members. The director, Roy Beck, is the former chief Washington correspondent for a chain of midwestern newspapers. The chief lobbyist is a Harvard-trained lawyer who specializes in immigration policy.
‘Sceptics Organisation’
My feeling is that any new sceptic lobby group should concentrate on breaking the stranglehold of the green lobby rather than try to oppose the IPCC science. There is an unholy alliance between Mainstream climate science and the environmental lobby groups/NGOs. Each mutually support each other with the latter acting as cheer leaders for the IPCC scientists, both benefiting through enhanced funding. This unhealthy alliance has now spread into government departments, business and political parties with increasing financial interests becoming dependent on continuing the CAGW scare.
AR5 is honest about the science and the uncertainties in feedbacks, particularly aerosols and clouds. It is just the selective message of the SPM and associated media spin that is wrong. There is a growing recognition that natural cycles like PDO play a role and that climate sensitivity is likely lower than past predictions. It’s just that they can’t explicitly say that because they know it would undermine the CAGW juggernaut on which they and their paymasters depend. So it should be one of the jobs of any new organisation to explicitly state it instead.
Unfortunately there is a gravy train rolling that has picked up a huge momentum and heading for the buffers. It is time to apply the breaks using reason, logic and accountability.
It would be a mistake to try to found some sort of ‘alternative’ climate science organisation.
Anth0ny:
I write to support the suggestion provided by Monckton of Brenchley because I suspect a political organisation could only be self-defeating. A political sceptical organisation would set sceptics against sceptics on the basis of political biases.
At April 25, 2014 at 7:08 am Monckton of Brenchley suggests:
I, too, would welcome such an additional “exchange” and “voice” to complement the weekly summary provided by the Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP).
Also, the problem of a name for the organisation has been addressed by other organisations with similar problems. For example, early followers of Jesus Christ were mockingly called ‘Christians’, and the ‘Oxford Group’ which included John and Charles Wesley were insultingly called “Methodists”. Such insults were overcome by embracing them.
Hence, I suggest the name for the proposed organisation could be something like
Deniers of Unchanging Climate (DUC).
Richard
The name of the organization would be critical.
I would be interested in joining a group that had a broader perspective than just climate change. Somewhere that opposing views surrounding important and/or controversial subjects based on science could be discussed. Some day Climate Change will no longer be the issue of the day, but there will be another Great Cause in it’s wake that will also warrant more scrutiny.
The other thing I would do is if there was a skeptical organization is to invite the CAGW crowd to join. Make it a big tent and NO POLITICS. The global warming argument is compelling to many and hence the reason for true believers. The growth of the skeptical community was as much a result of being vilified for asking hard questions as it was for the questions themselves. Swallow your opponents whole by embracing their passionate beliefs and letting them make their case. You never know some of us might become convinced of their science. The only caveat is that they must also listen to your views.
When you plant a flag in the ground and take a fixed scientific or political position you are now a fixed target. You must then prepare for a pitched battle. If you like World War 1 battle scenarios this is what you will get with lots of casualties and little change.
You will never convince someone to change their mind through force or argument. Remember that they are as skeptical of our positions as we are of theirs and that is the common ground between the two groups.
I’m not interested in joining a group that looks like the people we are arguing with. When you do that you have become your enemy. Show me something bigger.
Enemy identification is what causes polarity, misunderstandings and entrenched positions. CAGW believers are victims of sophisticated mind control propaganda and should be treated with compassion rather than as enemies. They have no frame of reference to understand the current state of climate science and so are ignorant of the empirical facts.
mellryn says:
Being “all ganged up” is why the US won in Vietnam and the Brits put down the American Revolution, and not being properly ganged up is why Gandhi lost India’s bid for independence, yes?
I could provide many more examples than those, showing that dividing your forces costs you the war. [ex: emperor Julian.] There is strength in organization, otherwise organizations would be rare.
A simple mission statement in the form of a falsifiable, testable hypothesis that would put the ball right back in the alarmists’ court. For example:
At current and projected concentrations, atmospheric carbon dioxide is harmless, and beneficial to the biosphere. The earth is measurably greening as a result, and any minor warming that might result is also harmless and beneficial.
Let them try to falsify that. When they erupt into ad hominem attacks and baseless assertions, rein them back to the hypothesis. They can either falsify it, or they can’t.
The entire debate is about “carbon”. They have demonized it without credible scientific measurements, facts, or observations. Time to hold their feet to the fire using their own wild-eyed words and always wrong predictions of catastrophe. If there is no catastrophe from more CO2, then their entire argument deflates.
======================
Steven Mosher says:
that would be something if you could actually show that conclusively.
We have. Repeatedly. It’s basic science.
++++++++++++++++++++++++
BTW, I like JoNova’s suggestions for alarmists, some of which are:
• Stop making predictions that never come true
• When you make a prediction, don’t just say something “might” happen
• Don’t live your life like you don’t believe a word you’re saying
• Stop the hate
• Stop avoiding debate
• Answer questions
• Stop enjoying catastrophes
• Don’t use invalid arguments
• When you are wrong, admit it
• Stop falsely claiming that 97% of scientists agree that humans are significantly warming the globe
• Stop lying. If you think it is okay to lie if it’s for a good cause, you are wrong
• Rebuke your fellow Warmists if they act in an unscientific or unethical way
• Stop blaming every event on Global Warming/Climate Change
• Why are the only solutions always big-government “progressive” policies?
Some folks are arguing as if an organization would take the place of WUWT and other skeptics’ sites. But it wouldn’t. It would be an addition to what already exists.
Something that I find odd is that even with limited competition between news sources, they never seem to want to correct each other. Every other competitive enterprise jumps on the chance to show up their competition. Why don’t we see some journalists jumping on skeptic dissection of other news outlet hype? Even if they agree with the idea of CAGW you would think that the chance to show up their competition would inspire them to correct other stories?
The fact that we do not see this at all is a mystery to me. Is there some secret covenant among journalists on this issue? Thou shalt not correct thy competitor? There is natural resistance to admiting you are wrong but one would think it plays into the same human weakness to desire to point out the mistakes of your rivals.
Herein lies a huge obstacle for voicing the skeptical position. No one with a pulpit seems to criticize anyone else with a pulpit.
The book I alluded to earlier: “Systemantics,” by John Gall: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Systemantics
–AGF
Reg Nelson, I think we’re aligned, and what you suggest is what KM verification could do, for a policy-maker, the target of IPCC’s SPM, apparently the competition. See social epistemology’s criteria, roughly: the scientific arguments proper, additional expertise, meta-experts and credentials, interests and biases, and track records, here: Goldman, AI, 2001. Experts: Which ones should you trust? Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 63: 85-110. http://fas-philosophy.rutgers.edu/goldman/SeminarFall2007/October%2031st/Goldman%20-%20Experts%20Which%20Ones%20Should%20You%20Trust.pdf
I agree with Mosher it’s about the science. The other side however, is probably not any skeptic, maybe not even modelling-focused debunking, it may be Holocene geology.