From the Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Plugging an ozone hole
MIT researchers find that the extremes in Antarctic ozone holes have not been matched in the Arctic
CAMBRIDGE, Mass– Since the discovery of the Antarctic ozone hole, scientists, policymakers, and the public have wondered whether we might someday see a similarly extreme depletion of ozone over the Arctic.
But a new MIT study finds some cause for optimism: Ozone levels in the Arctic haven’t yet sunk to the extreme lows seen in Antarctica, in part because international efforts to limit ozone-depleting chemicals have been successful.
“While there is certainly some depletion of Arctic ozone, the extremes of Antarctica so far are very different from what we find in the Arctic, even in the coldest years,” says Susan Solomon, the Ellen Swallow Richards Professor of Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Science at MIT, and lead author of a paper published this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Frigid temperatures can spur ozone loss because they create prime conditions for the formation of polar stratospheric clouds. When sunlight hits these clouds, it sparks a reaction between chlorine from chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), human-made chemicals once used for refrigerants, foam blowing, and other applications — ultimately destroying ozone.
“A success story of science and policy”
After the ozone-attacking properties of CFCs were discovered in the 1980s, countries across the world agreed to phase out their use as part of the 1987 Montreal Protocol treaty. While CFCs are no longer in use, those emitted years ago remain in the atmosphere. As a result, atmospheric concentrations have peaked and are now slowly declining, but it will be several decades before CFCs are totally eliminated from the environment — meaning there is still some risk of ozone depletion caused by CFCs.
“It’s really a success story of science and policy, where the right things were done just in time to avoid broader environmental damage,” says Solomon, who made some of the first measurements in Antarctica that pointed toward CFCs as the primary cause of the ozone hole.
To obtain their findings, the researchers used balloon and satellite data from the heart of the ozone layer over both polar regions. They found that Arctic ozone levels did drop significantly during an extended period of unusual cold in the spring of 2011. While this dip did depress ozone levels, the decrease was nowhere near as drastic as the nearly complete loss of ozone in the heart of the layer seen in many years in Antarctica.
The MIT team’s work also helps to show chemical reasons for the differences, demonstrating that ozone loss in Antarctica is closely associated with reduced levels of nitric acid in air that is colder than that in the Arctic.
“We’ll continue to have cold years with extreme Antarctic ozone holes for a long time to come,” Solomon says. “We can’t be sure that there will never be extreme Arctic ozone losses in an unusually cold future year, but so far, so good — and that’s good news.”
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“If the vast majority of the chemicals that are supposedly destroying ozone are found in the northern hemisphere- which makes sense, because I do believe that is where most of them are used- HOW do they get down to the Antarctic?”
Must be because they’re so heavy they sink. 😉
Good news: no ‘ozone hole’ in the Arctic
————
Not good news for the catastrophe mongers; they need stuff like that to get the proles into an uproar. And the greens need such a casus belli to feed their self-righteousness.
They must be so disappointed.
That UK Times statement about “burning unprotected fair skin” is the latest crazy thing. Since when has unprotected fair skin not burned? Have these folks only gone out at night for the last 17,000 years? They must be hard up if they no longer have hats and clothing!
“The problem is worse in the spring because the skin has not had time to acclimatise.”
Cover up, Brits.
Has the ozone hole always been there? They did say
If it has always been there then why are we trying to get rid of it?
Mmmmmmm! I suspect man’s cfc’s have a role to play but is it possible that a substantial hole in the ozone layer has always been there?
I am not sure what I believe about CFCs. I guess I’m a skeptic, but a couple of statement they make raise my eyebrows.
The first statement is a confirmation statement about a well ran effort to make a compound out as a bad compound. I don’t know it could be true. Here is the first statement. {But a new MIT study finds some cause for optimism: Ozone levels in the Arctic haven’t yet sunk to the extreme lows seen in Antarctica, in part because international efforts to limit ozone-depleting chemicals have been successful.}
Now here is the second statement about the actual science and their determination of what is causing the Antarctic hole. {The MIT team’s work also helps to show chemical reasons for the differences, demonstrating that ozone loss in Antarctica is closely associated with reduced levels of nitric acid in air that is colder than that in the Arctic.}
The research is showing colder air decreases the amount of nitric acid and the lesser amount of nitric acid decreases the amount of ozone. It appears on the surface that those two statements are about two different things.
It would be very funny if a couple of decades colder weather disproving AGW worries would also cause ozone holes to grow and cause some good scientific debate over whether CFCs really have a great effect on ozone holes or not.
Further to my last comment it would be so funny if we failed to stabilize our co2 levels and cooling became more pronounced for 20 years. That seems to be what is happening with the hole in the ozone layer. Just a thought and a sneaking suspicion that we are waisting our valuable time……. again.
Next up………………Acid oceans? Deformed canaries? Postal polar bears? Slithering kangaroos? Survivalist lemmings? Just what do these loons have up their sleeves?
Is baseline Arctic ozone ‘hole’ data available to compare the recent findings to?
Can anybody provide a link to data for Arctic ozone depletion from prior years/decades?
Right there is the ticket. Maybe they suspect it’s always had an ozone hole.
Obviously a red herring to keep us from focusing on 17 and a half years of no warming!
The hole was discovered in the mid 1980’s….
Penguins fart CFC’s…..
Bad news: ‘ozone hole’ over Tibet.
What area has the highest Ozone levels during the September low-point of Ozone (the hole) in the Antarctica?
60S. Yup, highest on the planet.
http://exp-studies.tor.ec.gc.ca/ozone/climatology/gl500_cl/to09.gif
http://exp-studies.tor.ec.gc.ca/ozone/climatology/sh500_cl/to09.gif
The Ozone just gets pushed out of the polar vortex during the peak of the Antarctic cold.
What area has the highest Ozone levels during the February low period for the Arctic (when some holes have been measured)?
60N.
http://exp-studies.tor.ec.gc.ca/ozone/climatology/gl500_cl/to02.gif
Pattern much?
Considering the vast majority of industrial activity and use of CFCs is in the northern hemisphere why is there an “CFC induced” hole only in the southern hemisphere?
There are no “holes” in the Ozone Layer for the simple reason that, in the real world, there is no such thing as an “Ozone Layer”.
The so-called “Ozone Layer” is an imaginary mathematical construct, created by Professor Gordon Dobson, used to convert an atmospheric reading from a Dobson Spectrophotometer, into a unit of measurement of atmospheric ozone concentration (a Dobson Unit).
“Scientists” who write papers on non-existent “holes” in imaginary “layers” in the air, need to be accommodated in small, padded rooms for their own safety, and kept away from sharp objects and school students, in the best interests of society in general.
Maybe it is the increasing ice causing the holes?
Correlation does not mean causation. But it is not a bad place to at least investigate.
They found that Arctic ozone levels did drop significantly during an extended period of unusual cold in the spring of 2011.
Ah. So its the cold what done it. We can fix that 😉
http://knowledgedrift.wordpress.com/2010/05/22/ozone-the-hole-that-always-was/
I guess the antarctic ozone hole did not exist before the “experts ” could model it.
Maybe when the cold of the next 30 or so years kicks in, these same people will “discover” an arctic hole.
Probably congruent with an arctic high holding steady over the polar region.
Trust government funding to make science a swear word.
– – – – – – – – –
Good. One less thing for me to worry about here at Latitude: 37-20’22” N &
Longitude: 121-53’42” W
John
Louis says: April 15, 2014 at 3:09 pm
“So why haven’t efforts to limit ozone-depleting chemicals in the southern hemisphere been as successful?”
There’s no big difference in CFC concentrations. Conditions for ozone catalytic depletion depend on temperature, requiring cold and sunlight. Antarctica is colder.
Here is a map of the size of SH ozone holes since good measurements began in 1980.
I have references in Optics and infra-red handbooks to our sun as a natural light source. As such, it has an apparent “color Temperature” that is in the 6,000 kelvin range for zenith sun in a clear sky; imagine that.
Well early investigations (1940s-50s) by the US Air Force, (imagine that ) noted that the apparent color Temperature of the sun varies, and it has both seasonal variations, and erratic longer term variations.
Researchers at the time suggested that the source of the variations in solar apparent color Temperature, was an anomalous solar spectrum in the UV and near short wave regions (blue-green) Anomalous in the black body sense.
Nobody at the time suggested any cause for these variations in the sun spectrum near, and shorter than the peak wavelength.
Plots of solar spectra, routinely show deviation from black body shape near the UV and blue green peak of the solar spectrum. I presume that by now, solar physicists like Leif for example are pretty familiar with current theories of how the sun does that. (I am not )
So what the hey does old sol know about earth’s seasons, so why would he fluctuate seasonally ??
Well I don’t think so, but a seasonal variation in the earth ozone “layer” would certainly explain a seasonal change in apparent color Temperature due to variations in atmospheric transmitted solar UV and blue green; even if such variations are absent at the sun end.
It is my conjecture, that these early Air Force studies, were evidence of natural ozone holes, long before, somebody said; “today I feel like looking for an ozone hole.”
So howcome the Air Force looked at this stuff. Well they already had B29s and B36s and B47s and such, flying at ever higher altitudes, and they were concerned about radiation hazards to air crews.
So ozone holes are old hat, and have always been coming and going.
Chris,
Nice link to David’s work at knowledgedrift. Pretty graphics too.
Pity it’s incorrect.
Just one of many variants on a theme created by NASA and others in the early 90’s to try and smudge over the fact that they had been caught out lying their pants off about “ozone holes”.
I repeat: There IS NO OZONE LAYER.
It is a mathematical construct created by taking a reading of total atmospheric ozone (from sea level to TOA), with a Dobson Spectrophotometer, ASSUMING all the measured ozone is compressed into a “layer” (the magical, mystical “ozone layer”) at sea level at STP, and expressing the calculated thickness of that “layer” in Dobson Units (based on the number of ozone molecules).
This entirely calculated value can then be used to compare total atmospheric ozone concentration in different geographical locations.
Mark and two Cats says:
April 15, 2014 at 4:15 pm
Good news: no ‘ozone hole’ in the Arctic
————
Not good news for the catastrophe mongers; they need stuff like that to get the proles into an uproar. And the greens need such a casus belli to feed their self-righteousness.
They must be so disappointed.
*
My thoughts exactly. But they win either way. Had they found a hole, they’d be screaming about it. As they haven’t, it’s “A success story of science and policy”, thus claiming their policies work!
Is this nonsense EVER going to end?
Mac the Knife says: April 15, 2014 at 4:43 pm
Is baseline Arctic ozone ‘hole’ data available to compare the recent findings to?
Can anybody provide a link to data for Arctic ozone depletion from prior years/decades?
Imagery of the Arctic and Antarctic Ozone Holes can be found in NOAA’s Ozone Mixing Archives;
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/sbuv2to/archive/
Nick Stokes says: April 15, 2014 at 5:53 pm
NASA GSFC, USA; image prepared by CSIRO Atmospheric Research – Click the pic to view[/caption]
NASA GSFC, USA; image prepared by CSIRO Atmospheric Research – Click the pic to view at source[/caption]
Here is a map of the size of SH ozone holes since good measurements began in 1980.
[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="578"]
The trend towards larger Ozone “Holes” in October;
[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="578"]
is explained by “several studies (including Waugh and Randel 1999; Waugh et al. 1999; Karpetchko et al. 2005; Black and McDaniel 2007)” that “have indicated a trend over the 1980s and 1990s toward a later vortex breakdown”:
http://www.columbia.edu/~lmp/paps/waugh+polvani-PlumbFestVolume-2010.pdf