2014/15 El Niño – Part 3 – Early Evolution – Comparison with 1982/83 & 1997/98 El Niño Events

Bob Tisdale with only two charts?

Bob
Any reason why you are not using ONI INDEX . It shows 86/87 El Nino peaking much earlier and lower (AUG/SEPT at 1.6 index) compared 97/98 which peaked NOV with 2.3 index?. Also why only compare the potential current situation with a very strong El Ninos . At this stage of development it is premature to only assume a very strong El Nino. I would compare El Ninos that happened during periods when the oceans were not warming[ flat or cooling like today [ like 51/52, 69/70 and 72/73)

Great again, Bob. Thanks.
I want to draw attention to the fact that in 1982/83 there was a terrible drought in Southern Africa which may have been caused by a coincidence of the dry peak of the 19 year drought cycle (Metonic, lunar) with a strong El Nino. It happens that at this moment the peak of the wet end of that 19 year cycle has just passed. If there was a strong double-whammy caused by the coincidence in 1983, then perhaps the fact they are almost directly out of synch this time will moderate the effect in the sub-continent.
My question is about the effect of lunar cycles on ENSO events. Is there a visible periodicity that includes the moon’s position above the equator or a combination with tides? The effect of the cycle on ‘weather’ on the sub-continent is pronounced, with the ENSO features riding on top. In some of the region a huge tropical cyclone (Demoina) flooded parts of the drought-stricken area, which means that total rainfall per se is not necessarily the best indicator of drought being in progress.

There are extensive posts on this matter on weatherbell.com. We have a blend of 57-58,02-03,09-10 and 65-66 starting to get in there.
Please understand the SOI tracking is no where near this. Its getting exhausting trying to point out that this appears to be a typical cold enso reaction, when the enso is cold overall the previous 3-5 years, a nino response occurs with a rapid rise up then collapse. Perhaps this will be different, but please go the mei site and look at the mei before the super ninos and the ones we have and I think you will have your answer.
counting this, every el nino since 1998 has drawn super nino speculation, mostly because we have people hoping for the global spike in temp ( which of course is admission as to what really drives the global temps) no one cares to comment that after this spike, the fall will be greater and that is why the downward trend in temps since the pdo flip
Joe D Aleo’s work on this is essential in forming a base to look at this

Good post Bob. Daily SOI seems to paint a similar picture …
http://postimg.org/image/7s11g4qif/full
http://postimg.org/image/5ov7m7g3b/full (304K 2540×1900 pixels)
However, this at 110°W hints at more to come fairly quickly …
http://s23.postimg.org/un3xish17/Timing.png

Thanks Bob! Much appreciated, level-headed update on ENSO, especially given all the .
Your “HOWEVER – Sea surface temperature anomalies of the NINO3.4 region really don’t do justice to the 1997/98 El Niño. That El Niño was freakish in how quickly it evolved in the eastern (not central) equatorial Pacific and how warm the sea surface temperatures eventually grew there.” statement is key to this current ENSO event and its future development.
In other words “there is not one shred of evidence to suggest abnormal warming of surface waters off Ecuador is occurring. That is the trademark of El Nino.”
Based on RT-cycle analysis, this current ENSO event is linked to the 1965 el nino (600 month cycle: 303+296 months), which had a peak ONI value of 1.9 using the updated version (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml), but had a peak ONI value of 1.6 based on the previous version (1971-2000 climatology): http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears_1971-2000_climo.shtml
The RT-cycle analysis finds ONI to turn + during either the MAM or AMJ seasons, and the el nino to peak during either the 2014 OND or NDJ season with likely a value of ~1.6 +/- 0.2.

It’s almost like the Pacific is preparing for a major volcanic eruption. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that El Ninos form nearly every time there’s a major volcanic eruption. Not only that, but these El Ninos begin forming before the eruption even occurs! Look at El Chichon in 1982 and Pinatubo in 1991… or Agung in 1963. Of course it’s a pretty incredible claim to make… that the ocean begins responding to a volcanic eruption that hasn’t even happened yet… so it’s something that needs more research. But it would be interesting if a major eruption occurs and I can say “told ya!”

James Strong asks ‘Are the current trades much weaker than normal’ and mentions the oft quoted theme that this is a required condition for an El Nino. James, good for you for monitoring the wind direction and discovered the predominant easterly flow.and I wish more would do so. My two cents worth here regarding a pre condition for a weaker flow come from simple empirical observations by satellite and met offices throughout the SW Pacific: The El Nino cycle partially defined by Nino 3.4, and SOI seems to be coincident with lighter trade winds. This is not 100% by any means. I forecast this area and that to the west and can assure you that ‘light trades’ and ‘strong trades’ occur whether the cycle is La Nina or El Nino or Neutral. The wind speed varies constantly regardless of which ENSO cycle we are in.
In the summer and fall southern hemisphere time frame we see westerly pulses due to the Australian Monsoon , the MJO, strong High pressure cells in the northern hemisphere pushing flow across the equator and turning to a westerly quadrant, and most important the location and strength of the South Pacific travelling High Pressure cells. If the central pressure of these cells is over 1030 hPa we will see 30 knots or more E to SE winds on the perimeter and conversely if the Highs are weak so are the trades. The Nino 3.4 region winds in the southern hemisphere come mainly from the semi permanent High off of South America. If that High is weak, so are the trades and conversely if it’s strong. The travelling Highs I mentioned before do play a role here; they don’t just disappear when they near South America, they become absorbed into the semi permanent High so with some imagination you can see how the semi permanent High’s central pressure fluctuates and thus its output in the form of easterly trades. There are so many intertwined events that blanket statements just can’t be done.
If all of us do what James does and monitor the flow it will take the mystery out of the equation and help make ENSO more understandable.
And a final note to Bob T; just bought your book and good on you for a great job.

@ur momisugly Bob Tisdale 8:48 am near the center:
“. . . westerly wind busts . . . ”
Says the opposite of what you intended, namely “bursts”, as used in the last line.
Thanks Bob. Figure 2 is especially enlightening.
[But Tisdale’s busts may prove most of the outgoing bumps for enlightened prognostication …. 8<) Mod]