Bob Tisdale recently took some of the early wailers to task over the expected El Niño this year, saying:
I knew it wouldn’t take long. The 2014/15 El Niño has yet to form and there’s already a well-commented blog post about it that spreads more speculative nonsense than one would think possible.
So, I thought it might be time to do some forecasting of our own. First, some basics,
From Tisdales recent article, we have this graph showing another model vs. reality divergence.
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NOTHING IN THE INSTRUMENT TEMPERATURE RECORD INDICATES ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING HAS HAD ANY IMPACT ON THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC IN 32+ YEARS
El Niño events take place in the tropical Pacific. Figure 1 is a model-data comparison of the sea surface temperature anomalies of the tropical Pacific since the start of the Reynolds OI.v2 satellite-enhanced sea surface temperature dataset in November 1981. The models are represented by the multi-model ensemble-member mean of the climate models stored in the CMIP5 archive, which was used by the IPCC for their 5th assessment report. (Figure 1 is from the post Maybe the IPCC’s Modelers Should Try to Simulate Earth’s Oceans. See that post for further information.) According to the most current generation of climate models—the latest and greatest climate models—if manmade greenhouse gases warmed the sea surface temperatures of the tropical Pacific, they should have warmed about 0.58 deg C over the past 32+ years, based on the linear trend. But the observed sea surface temperatures of the tropical Pacific show little warming in 32+ years.

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When/if a large or super El Niño forms, you know the usual suspects will try to link it to global warming/climate change. It is as certain as the sun rising in the morning.
So, readers are invited to create statements/headlines that they think are likely to appear in the media, and when we get a hit on one of those, we’ll refer back to this WUWT article and point out that it was expected, but there’s just no linkage.
My contribution is:
Trenberth told us that heat hiding in the ocean would jump out and burn us in the future, and he was right!
Happy headlining!
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“Human created Co2 causes catastrophic, worst-ever El Nino effect, as the Pacific releases the built up toxin and overwhelms Earth with heat. Millions expected to die or be displaced.”
Polar bears will all die because they ran out of penguins to eat due to the polar vortex combining with El Niño into a tipping point called Niño Vortex!
Pamela Gray says:
April 12, 2014 at 3:16 pm
Jim, of course the Sun heats the oceans. But the miniscule amount of solar change that you speak of cannot, CANNOT be detected in ocean heat anomaly measures. You do understand that of course.
Pamela, actually it can be detected in ocean heat anomaly measures. There is more effect on the oceans from the Sun than people seem to be aware of.
See:
Using the Oceans as a Calorimeter to Quantify the Solar Radiative Forcing
Nir J. Shaviv
Abstract.
Over the 11-year solar cycle, small changes in the total solar irradiance (TSI) give rise to small variations in the global energy budget. It was suggested, however, that different mechanisms could amplify solar activity variations to give large climatic effects, a possibility which is still a subject of debate. With this in mind, we use the oceans as a calorimeter to measure the radiative forcing variations associated with the solar cycle. This is achieved through the study of three independent records, the net heat flux into the oceans over 5 decades, the sea level change rate based on tide gauge records over the 20th century, and the sea surface temperature variations. Each of the records can be used to consistently derive the same oceanic heat flux. We find that the total radiative forcing associated with solar cycles variations is about 5 to 7 times larger than just those associated with the TSI variations, thus implying the necessary existence of an amplification mechanism, though without pointing to which one.
A headline or three:
Pause in Global Warming ended by Unprecedented Super El Nino
McKibben Blames Rising Temperatures on XL Pipeline Decision
Trenberth Vindicated says Schmidt
I would think that there is a fair contingent of media types, reporters, sub editors, editors and etc who give WUWT the once over on a very regular basis to try and keep themselves up to speed with this climate and science caper.
That same media likes to think they are taken seriously and don’t like it one little bit when a whole raft of people take the mickey out of their headline writing editors on a web site as prominent as WUWT as is happening with this headline blog post
Because it shows that they becoming out of touch with a fairly large group of the decision makers in the public, those ordinary faceless men and women who others will regularly quote as having said this or that and who consequently are the ones who shape public opinion at street and pub level.
And when you lose those street level decision makers you have near enough lost the entire plot.
And WUWT, Jo Nova, Bishop Hill and the other well patronised skeptic blogs are inhabited by those street level and often much higher than street level decision makers, those individuals who are prepared to speak their minds and are open about their beliefs which is why they comment on the high profile skeptic blogs in the first place and on a subject where they know they are regarded as pariahs by a considerable part of the populace because they do not believe as do the CAGW ideologists and are quite prepared to loudly say so.
[ Although who is now the pariah is becoming somewhat of a moot point as the great wheel of human affairs continues right on rolling as always and the other side starts to come up as it always does. ]
The denizens of the skeptic blogs openly state their minds about their beliefs surrounding most items that are intrinsic and of importance to our society, civilisation and survival such as climate, science. politics and politicians, bureaucrats and of course the Media which is regarded as somewhere in the bottom ten percent of the levels of respectability by those street level decision makers.
So with the mickey being taken out of the headline writers in the media by the WUWT and other denizens of other skeptic blogs I would suggest that come say around June and July when we would expect to see an El Nino getting under way IF the experts haven’t got it all wrong again as they have re El Nino’s for most of the last decade, somewhat like some of the girls I knew some sixty ago, they seem to ready to offer many promises but always managed to avoid delivering.
In many media outlets after WUWT denizens working over the future media headlines on a potential El Nino I think there might be a much more subdued and circumspect approach to the headlines and headline stories on the El Nino from a much wider array of media outlets than if posts such as this one that Anthony has put up, had never appeared and all you denizens had the chance to give a right royal raspberry to the sensationalist promoting media headline writers.
Of course there will still be a wide range of the media, the real wacky publicity at all costs media outlets who just can’t help themselves but prolong their stay in the gutter of sensationalism for sensationalism’s sake.
Or maybeand far more likely, they just aren’t smart enough to know a fact when they actually see one.
But thats the media !
Need any more be said?
Brandon Shollenberger says: “Sou of Hot Whopper wrote a post responding to this one, claiming Bob Tisdale had somehow “fudged” a graph…”
Thanks, Brandon. I reblogged your post. But, since Sou deleted her errors, I want to call attention to the archived uncorrected edition of Sou’s post you saved:
http://archive.is/x1pQC
Thanks for saving it.
I also want to link my reply to Sou at your blog, since she corrected the mistake in the post but followed it with another in a comment:
http://hiizuru.wordpress.com/2014/04/13/checking-work/#comment-877
Cheers!
Main – “Breaking: Strong Natural Cooling Trend Is Overwhelmed By Co2 Driven Warming”
Subs – “Experts Warn: Warming Consistent With Climate Models..
– It’s Worse Than We Thought..
– Tipping Point Is Near..
– We Must Act Now..
– Oh, and Add A Zero To My Grant!”
Voice over – “Scary pictures of Steam From A Chimney at 11”
Predicted La Nina Overwhelmed by Massive El Nino.
We just won’t know what La Nina’s are anymore.
Weekly Godas ocean model animations have been updated.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/pent_gif/xz/movie.temp.0n.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/pent_gif/xy/movie.h300.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/pent_gif/xy/movie.uv15m.gif
In today’s Sunday Telegraph their weather expert has a piece on the naming of hurricanes and the prediction for the upcoming season. Strangely he fails to mention the total failure of last year’s predictions to come close to actuality.
Bill Illis says: “Weekly Godas ocean model animations have been updated.”
Thanks
Eugene WR Gallun
How about:
El Niño signals polar bear extinction–for the third time!
Britain Bans Baked Beans as Unprecedented Super El Beano Bakes the Planet!
Fears were raised about the impact of ‘smelly emissions’ caused by Brits eating more beans than any other country in the world. Scientists say bean eating Brits cause global warming, super El Niño and huge smelly hurricanes!!!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2600681/Cut-eating-baked-beans-reduce-smelly-emissions-minister-suggests-battle-tackle-climate-change.html
TomR,Worc,MA,USA says: April 12, 2014 at 3:04 pm “Does anyone know how to say “The death of skepticism” in Latin?” LOL
I asked G00gle translate and it responded, “[i]et cessabit mare a morte[/i].” When I reversed the implication, I got [b]quiet death[/b]. How appropriate!
Sorry. Forgot which markup language worked here. Mod?
Try carats instead of brackets, thusly:
and without the spaces to get and
and w/out space to get and
Rats, it did my thinking for me. How ’bout this:
and to give you and
ANYWAYS, use these () instead of these ([ ]). ^_^
Super El NINO II of the Present Era To Blister Arctic Fauna.
These () to close. Lol, this is fun, trying to outwit the coding. This board (unlike some others) is really “forgiving” I guess.
Use the less than / more than signs! ROFL
As I have said on previous posts on this topic, my best analysis is that there will be no super EL Nino later this year .We will likely see a weak El Nino only. I don’t see a strong El Nino until late this decade. My analysis is based on historical Ocean cycles and the pattern of El Ninos that existed wit them . Strong or super El Ninos are less frequent during the cooler phases of ocean cycles.
You did say headlines 😉
http://t3.imagechef.com/ic/imgout/sampdb3d65d714f79ff0.jpg
News title of 2016 or so,
“The Climate Changed by El Niño and We Didn’t Die BUT We’re Doomed!”
John
It is our moral obligation to make the planet cold. Now get out there a freeze da@ur momisugly@it!
goldminor says:
April 12, 2014 at 3:40 pm
I think that they will be very disappointed by the end of the summer……………………………………………………
I know I always am!