Bob Tisdale recently took some of the early wailers to task over the expected El Niño this year, saying:
I knew it wouldn’t take long. The 2014/15 El Niño has yet to form and there’s already a well-commented blog post about it that spreads more speculative nonsense than one would think possible.
So, I thought it might be time to do some forecasting of our own. First, some basics,
From Tisdales recent article, we have this graph showing another model vs. reality divergence.
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NOTHING IN THE INSTRUMENT TEMPERATURE RECORD INDICATES ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING HAS HAD ANY IMPACT ON THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC IN 32+ YEARS
El Niño events take place in the tropical Pacific. Figure 1 is a model-data comparison of the sea surface temperature anomalies of the tropical Pacific since the start of the Reynolds OI.v2 satellite-enhanced sea surface temperature dataset in November 1981. The models are represented by the multi-model ensemble-member mean of the climate models stored in the CMIP5 archive, which was used by the IPCC for their 5th assessment report. (Figure 1 is from the post Maybe the IPCC’s Modelers Should Try to Simulate Earth’s Oceans. See that post for further information.) According to the most current generation of climate models—the latest and greatest climate models—if manmade greenhouse gases warmed the sea surface temperatures of the tropical Pacific, they should have warmed about 0.58 deg C over the past 32+ years, based on the linear trend. But the observed sea surface temperatures of the tropical Pacific show little warming in 32+ years.
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When/if a large or super El Niño forms, you know the usual suspects will try to link it to global warming/climate change. It is as certain as the sun rising in the morning.
So, readers are invited to create statements/headlines that they think are likely to appear in the media, and when we get a hit on one of those, we’ll refer back to this WUWT article and point out that it was expected, but there’s just no linkage.
My contribution is:
Trenberth told us that heat hiding in the ocean would jump out and burn us in the future, and he was right!
Happy headlining!
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O/T/ Jo Nova, three more men have resigned from Frontiers. Check it out eh? I’ve got to bathe the dog.
“Ocean Warming Linked To Increased Earthquake Activity”
Absolutely. Two-fer-one scaremongering.
Why? Everything up to Earth explosion has already been published and cAGW faithfuls seem capable of running SCIgen.
‘Boy locked in fridge eats own foot’. Reuters today reported that a small boy was locked in an abandoned refrigerator, and ended up eating his own foot. Scientists say that the unprecedented global heat this summer caused the door to stick shut. In the dark, the boy mistook his foot for a side of beef, and began to consume his own body part. Police say the boy was only locked in the fridge for 20 minutes. Dr David Viner said, “The boy will never know skateboarding”. Global warming campaigner, Michael Mann, has called on the UN to ensure refrigerators always have the light on, even when they are broken and abandoned. Speaking from his villa poolside, Professor Mann said that even if something is broken and abandoned, it can still be dangerous. Grant Foster has refused to comment.
El Niño Modoki Returns
1) Super “Kal-El” Nino causes fire and brimstone to fall from skies, rivers and seas to boil
2) Scientists: Extreme weather patterns will cause forty years of darkness, earthquakes, volcanoes
3) Zombie climate causes dead to rise from the grave
4) Fear of extreme weather inspires human sacrifice, dogs and cats to live together, mass hysteria
5) Trenberth to Mann: “Hey, which way do these temperatures go?” “They go up!”
(with apologies to Black Rhino Productions, Columbia Pictures Corporation, Delphi Productions, and the cast & crew of Ghostbusters)
‘Natural phenomenon is possibly being made worse by climate change’ says climate scientist desperate to hold on to funding until his kids are through college.
“Super El Nino confirms climate experts were right all along and we must cut emissions of all greenhouse gases now”.
A severely unprecedented super el nino vortex brings worse than expected floods, drought, snow and extremist weather. As predicted.
El Nino not as big as predicted due to human admitted CO2.
Yes a strange duck but yes I doubt this El Nino will be big and yes they will blame CO2 for that. No not all CO2 but just the one human produces.
Global warming strikes the UK – outbreaks of mass weekend pic-nics and happy smiley people !!!
Sou of Hot Whopper wrote a post responding to this one, claiming Bob Tisdale had somehow “fudged” a graph. I saw a tweet linking to it, got curious and checked it out. You can see what I found here:
http://hiizuru.wordpress.com/2014/04/13/checking-work/
It turns out the reason Sou was unable to get the same graph Tisdale got is one of them grabbed data from the Pacific Ocean; the other grabbed data from everywhere else. Any guesses on who did which?
The boy child slays the skeptics. The planet overheats. We must do something NOW.
Hot Seas Mean Less Than Ten Years To Prevent Climate Catastrophe
There’s my headline bet. It will be followed by a story of how several of the world’s most respected and eminent climate scientists are convening in some luxury resort in the Bahamas to discuss how to communicate their message that we must Save The Planet before Christmas 2024 – which, of course, is just far enough in the future for the MSM to conveniently forget all about the prediction by the time it fails.
The irony is that ENSO is an entirely natural phenomena but the AGW proponents want to claim it as down to AGW. Just shows how low they have to go to try and find the most inapt peice of ‘evidence’ they can find to show they were right. perhaps it is time to start pushing the fact that a natural warming is potentially on the horizon, if the sceptics can be shown to be able to predict better than the models, then the agw ‘scientists’ will be in the dunce corner longer.
“Dodgers Worst Ever Season – Manager Blames Global Warming”
Some more fun: “Killer el Nino smothers threatens climate sceptics children”
– U2 frontman Bono slams G8 leaders for failing to act to save the planet
– Religious leaders tell governments to act, while we still can
– Richard Branson: The warning signals have always been there – we’ve just failed to do anything about them
– BBC: Is voting Labour the last chance for people to save the planet, after super El Niño rocks Tory Prime Minister
Terror created by El Nino threat and Cyclone Ita caused trapped patrons, to get roaring drunk. (This happened in Australia), When the roof flew off the local pub, patrons didn’t mind as they had saved all the grog in an adjacent bottle shop. “That’s what true blue Aussies do went we are faced with climate change, we say ‘Stuff you!”
It’s worse than dead, Jim…
The 2014/15 El Niño turns to raw veganism
Super Giant El Nino Signals end of world
Third World nations hit the hardest
Pamela Gray says:
“First, it will not be big or super anything (men…they always think things are bigger than they are). What counts is overall column heat.”
So it’s not size that matters, it’s overall column heat.
Thanks for giving us a female perspective.
Ronald says: El Nino not as big as predicted due to human admitted CO2.
That’ll be about right.
“El Nono – climate change suppresses El Nino, heat still hiding in ocean says climate scientist”