Bob Tisdale recently took some of the early wailers to task over the expected El Niño this year, saying:
I knew it wouldn’t take long. The 2014/15 El Niño has yet to form and there’s already a well-commented blog post about it that spreads more speculative nonsense than one would think possible.
So, I thought it might be time to do some forecasting of our own. First, some basics,
From Tisdales recent article, we have this graph showing another model vs. reality divergence.
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NOTHING IN THE INSTRUMENT TEMPERATURE RECORD INDICATES ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING HAS HAD ANY IMPACT ON THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC IN 32+ YEARS
El Niño events take place in the tropical Pacific. Figure 1 is a model-data comparison of the sea surface temperature anomalies of the tropical Pacific since the start of the Reynolds OI.v2 satellite-enhanced sea surface temperature dataset in November 1981. The models are represented by the multi-model ensemble-member mean of the climate models stored in the CMIP5 archive, which was used by the IPCC for their 5th assessment report. (Figure 1 is from the post Maybe the IPCC’s Modelers Should Try to Simulate Earth’s Oceans. See that post for further information.) According to the most current generation of climate models—the latest and greatest climate models—if manmade greenhouse gases warmed the sea surface temperatures of the tropical Pacific, they should have warmed about 0.58 deg C over the past 32+ years, based on the linear trend. But the observed sea surface temperatures of the tropical Pacific show little warming in 32+ years.
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When/if a large or super El Niño forms, you know the usual suspects will try to link it to global warming/climate change. It is as certain as the sun rising in the morning.
So, readers are invited to create statements/headlines that they think are likely to appear in the media, and when we get a hit on one of those, we’ll refer back to this WUWT article and point out that it was expected, but there’s just no linkage.
My contribution is:
Trenberth told us that heat hiding in the ocean would jump out and burn us in the future, and he was right!
Happy headlining!
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1.”Galapagos Island turtles Roasted by Super El Nino. Best soup since 97.”
2. “Apocalypse!! Super El Nino arrives with Second Blood Moon of 2014. (Oct 8). Heralds arrival of Second Horseman: War.”
(first bloodmoon is In 4 days, timed to arrive with Russia’s “Conquest” of Ukraine next week according to the internet.)
not that I believe that apocalypse stuff, but the wacko-blogosphere is on fire with this stuff rightnow.
pokerguy says:
April 12, 2014 at 5:59 pm
“Hell I could be Ann Margaret for all you know and you could be Burt!”
Had to laugh Pamela. Have you seen Burt lately? Truthfully, I find the whole aging thing deeply depressing, so what else to do but make jokes..
One of my favorite quotes “The greatest surprise in a man’s life is old age.” Boy, how true that’s turned out to be.
“Growing old is mandatory; acting old is optional.”
Only one Mann can save us!
The Pacific Equatorial Countercurrent has “moved” 5 degrees North of the equator! A second Intertropical Convergence Zone has formed in the Eastern Pacific! Blame Bob Tisdale and the rest of those climate warming deniers on WUWT.
OT:
The Global sea ice anomaly continues its current growth rate of >100,000 Km2/day and today passed +1.1 Million Km2.
For years our models have predicted that industrial carbon dumped into our fragile atmospheric system would result in rapid climate changes and extreme events. We have once again been proven correct.
Inverted by Polar Vortex, Pacific Heat Rises to Challenge the Globe.
Len, oh, I didn’t know! I thought carbon pollution caused SMOGS and acid rain? However, I don’t believe you and nor do other scientists.
Vortex Induced Thermal Inversion Accelerates Energy Dump, Pacific Heat is back with a Vengeance.
Acid Vortex Accelerates Pacific Torisade Effect. Massive Thermal Conduit Threatens Galapagos Tortoises.
“Unprecedented Pacific warming points to dire future”
“Hot Pacific indicate we have 15 years to stop Climate Change before it is too late”
“Does El-Nino suggest it is already too late?”
Don’t believe anything written by Michael Mann. If the weather turns nasty, there is bugger all we can do about it. That’s happened before, and we get terrible storms, and the insurance companies are now getting twitchy, that people build in flood areas and plains, earthquake and volcanic regions, and even bush fire places. If you wish to live in a jungle then you have to cope with co inhabitants, like nasty insects, and predatory animals. I was told never buy on a river bank, or beach, or on top of a cliff. Nor near a pub or school. I think we have learned lessons about how large cities and populations cause their own pollution, and its governments that need to install containment and some don’t.
Super el nino gives skeptics pause.
OK, I’ll give it a whirl;
El Nino – The Heat Wave That Ate Cincinnati
With apologies to Dr. Demento et al.
El Nino Brings Jalapeno Temperatures!!!!
Eugene WR Gallun
The Polar Bears Are Drowning Again!
Eugene WR Gallun
Crawling up from the depths…to terrify and torture! The Monster that Challenged the World.
http://www.google.com/imgres?imgrefurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.1000misspenthours.com%2Freviews%2Freviewsh-m%2Fmonsterthatchallengedtheworld.htm&tbnid=g7YW34sDMhgtcM:&docid=P-783sadkryWEM&h=300&w=385
Don’t worry about El Nino think more ice for polar bears. They found the skull of one in a cave in UK, that was deposited during the last ice age. Oh, dear, can you imagine it, “The Polar bears are coming,close your doors”. Stuff the El Nino or La Nina.
Green Peace makes Hot Chili Pepper Symbol Of Climate Change!
Its hot and chilly at the same time! says spokesperson.
Eugene WR Gallun
The long-awaited super El Niño has finally arrived but is weaker than expected. Scientists conclude that climate change is causing El Niños to become weaker and less frequent than normal. We are all doomed!
I agree it won’t be called a “Super El Nino”. That is passe. It will have to be an “Extreme Super El Nino.”
The media will continue to display a short attention span and forget what it was headlining a few months earlier. Where Obama connected the California dry spell to Global Warming, the El Nino rains will next get the blame: “Extreme Super El Nino Causes Mudslide On I-5; Global Warming Blamed.”
Joe Bastardi suggests that although there will be fewer hurricanes next fall, the few that do develop are likely to form in close to the USA coast, and even may create a situation resembling 1954, when the east coast got Carol, Edna and Hazel. However I’ve been awaiting such a year ever since the AMO turned warm, and it doesn’t happen. No matter. Even if a minimal hurricane skims up the east coast the headline will be “Extreme Super El Nino Caused Hurricane Damages 2000000% More Laptop Computers Than Hurricane Bob In 1992. Global Warming Blamed.”
When the El Nino barely reaches moderate status, and then abruptly fades away, it is likely the media will conveniently forget they made the fuss they made, however perhaps an enterprising young reporter will attempt to concoct a story beneath the banner, “Extreme Super El Nino’s Unprecedented Demise Threatens World Peace. Global Warming Blamed”.
Trenberth’s Kraken Emerges!!!
Eugene WR Gallun
El Nino Libre !
http://youtu.be/h7wEE6Yx7IQ
Michael Mann, Al Gore, and Flim Flam Flannery emigrate to the Southern Hemisphere to avoid El Nino. Oh, Tim is already here I think.
Hold the Sriracha … try this El Nino instead