Bob Tisdale recently took some of the early wailers to task over the expected El Niño this year, saying:
I knew it wouldn’t take long. The 2014/15 El Niño has yet to form and there’s already a well-commented blog post about it that spreads more speculative nonsense than one would think possible.
So, I thought it might be time to do some forecasting of our own. First, some basics,
From Tisdales recent article, we have this graph showing another model vs. reality divergence.
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NOTHING IN THE INSTRUMENT TEMPERATURE RECORD INDICATES ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING HAS HAD ANY IMPACT ON THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC IN 32+ YEARS
El Niño events take place in the tropical Pacific. Figure 1 is a model-data comparison of the sea surface temperature anomalies of the tropical Pacific since the start of the Reynolds OI.v2 satellite-enhanced sea surface temperature dataset in November 1981. The models are represented by the multi-model ensemble-member mean of the climate models stored in the CMIP5 archive, which was used by the IPCC for their 5th assessment report. (Figure 1 is from the post Maybe the IPCC’s Modelers Should Try to Simulate Earth’s Oceans. See that post for further information.) According to the most current generation of climate models—the latest and greatest climate models—if manmade greenhouse gases warmed the sea surface temperatures of the tropical Pacific, they should have warmed about 0.58 deg C over the past 32+ years, based on the linear trend. But the observed sea surface temperatures of the tropical Pacific show little warming in 32+ years.
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When/if a large or super El Niño forms, you know the usual suspects will try to link it to global warming/climate change. It is as certain as the sun rising in the morning.
So, readers are invited to create statements/headlines that they think are likely to appear in the media, and when we get a hit on one of those, we’ll refer back to this WUWT article and point out that it was expected, but there’s just no linkage.
My contribution is:
Trenberth told us that heat hiding in the ocean would jump out and burn us in the future, and he was right!
Happy headlining!
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Just thought that you should all know that the ‘mother of all El Ninos’ has been called off through lack of interest.
Deniers deflated!
Naysayers nullified!
I vote for “mpaul”s prediction above as the one that made me splutter the most tea…..
.
“Headline: Catastrophic El Nino Projected to Wipe Out All Life on Earth; Women and Children Will be Hardest Hit.
Subhead: Ahead of the disaster, Climate Scientist scurry to secure intellectual property rights to climate data and computer models.”
Thank you kindly Sir.
william fox says: April 12, 2014 at 3:25 pm
“Its a thermageddon el nino folks , it came from the deep and wil fry us all.”
Sigh.
Boil, William. Not fry. Boil.
We have had a cyclone Ita attack our North Queensland towns, not as bad as they predicted, but bad enough. Now are cyclones caused by El Nino or La Nina. I haven’t a clue. But QLD has about 5 cyclones a year, I thought they were just seasonal and a natural event. Some worse than others. We had a tornado in New England some months ago. It was local only, and destroyed one old house luckily the elderly occupant wasn’t hurt. Trees up rooted and old sheds dismantled. It was a rare event though, as are water spouts that become land falls. Even UK had a bad storm in 1986, and uprooted and destroyed l million trees. A rare event. Why can’t these alarmists accept the fact we do get extreme weather sometimes?
I know that insurance companies are bitching, and raising premiums. One tried to explain why my insurance had gone up so much, and was very rude to me. You pay for tsunamis, bush fires and flooding. “What! I live in a town not the bush, I live no where near a flood area, and tsunamis, at 3,500 feet above sea level, mate, it would have to be an asteroid impact to reach me, and then we wouldn’t have to worry about insurance…” They did lower my insurance premium, I don’t mind paying for bush fire levy, as although they don’t affect our area and town, they are horrific.”
EPA and the UN have formally postponed the upcoming El Niño due to a lack of proper permitting.
They will continue to store excess heat in the ocean deep until such time all the paperwork is correct.
The people who live near Mt.Vesuvius can’t insure their properties. I wonder why?
Climate Change Unleashes Killer El Nino.
Freak thunderstorm rains poached tuna!
Joe Bastardi is awarded El Nino trophy!
Headline: It’s Baa-aaak!
Sub-Headline: Super El Niño expected to end the global warming hiatus with a vengeance.
El Niño headline #1:
Unprecedented Super El Niño wipes out Anchovies – price of pizza soars.
El Niño headline #2:
A Callao Painter brings unprecedented stench (and paint shortage) to Peru’s coastal fishing villages. Link to CO2 99.9 % sure.
El Niño headline #3:
El Niño brings February rain to Seattle, Cascades get buried in snow. This hasn’t happened since the Puget Lobe covered the region in thousands of feet of ice 13,000 years ago. We are doomed.
Whoops, forgot most important part:
Headline: It’s Baa-aaak!
Sub-Headline: Super El Niño expected to end the global warming hiatus with a vengeance, scientists say
This just in. According to 101% of all scientists, the likelihood that man is causing global warming is now up to 117%.
Early warning systems might help. Unfortunately, they don’t always turn out to be predictable, as cyclones, tend to hug coastal areas. But it is better to be warned than not. Solomon islands were hit by floods, and now an earthquake that caused a tsunami. Double jeopardy, eh.
Here comes El Niño–Hasta la Vista, Baby!
Cubs Win World Series!
– and now you know the end of the world can’t be far off
As Long Sequestered Deep Heat Rises, New Model Links Super El Nino to Chilean Earthquake/Indonesian Volcano/Moldovan Measles Outbreak/Childhood Obesity/Rise in Global Heroin Trade/Unprecedented Numbers of Deaths of Kittens
Shouldn’t the CAGWers be here telling Bob that he should align the trends at the same y-axis starting anomaly point instead of the aligning the actual data? Isn’t that what they always whine about these days?
Of course, if one did that, it’d shift the model data up another 0.2 C or so and make it look even worse compared to reality…
-Scott
Tony Abbott, PM, abolishes the carbon tax creating an unprecedented El Nino.
A disgruntled Heidi (Klum) says “models are right”.
How to make Heidi gruntled?
“The Thriller In Manilla.”
Becomes eight rounds of “Rope-A-Dope.”
Even Howard Cosell falls asleep at the microphone in the seventh.
Haha
Her Majesties Federal Ship Ke[l]vin Tren[d]be[a]rth suffers explosions mid-ships and is listing the the waters.
HMS Arc Royal rounds to “Cross The T” and send a torpedo barrage by Swordfish Fighters to Tren[d]be[a]rth and receiving heavy bombardment from Royal Navy Capital ships arriving on station to send her to the depths and all remaining crew. May God help them.
bushbunny says:
April 12, 2014 at 7:25 pm
We have had a cyclone Ita attack our North Queensland towns, not as bad as they predicted, but bad enough. Now are cyclones caused by El Nino or La Nina. I haven’t a clue. But QLD has about 5 cyclones a year,
I read somewhere that they are predicting a drought later this year around June July. The tanks and reservoirs must be full so thats all good. I hope further south too NSW and Victoria.
El Nino, the Christmas child,
in like a lamb,
Thanks bushbunny and TRG, fun comments ( but I thought it was 105% of all scientists, you know the “margin of error is +/- 5%?).
Well Northern Queensland and parts of the Northern Territory are in a monsoon belt. The big wet they call it. I wouldn’t want to live in those areas, as it is known cyclones can arrive during some months. I recall that in Coff’s harbour (NSW north coast) region, great fishing, it did have a shortage of water, and I was there when a tropical storm hit, and roads were flooded. It was frightening with the high winds and debris on the roads. One of our neighbors was in the same resort, and was with the SES. She told us to go before the roads were cut by floods.
It happens. Up back on the tablelands, there wasn’t a drop.