Bob Tisdale recently took some of the early wailers to task over the expected El Niño this year, saying:
I knew it wouldn’t take long. The 2014/15 El Niño has yet to form and there’s already a well-commented blog post about it that spreads more speculative nonsense than one would think possible.
So, I thought it might be time to do some forecasting of our own. First, some basics,
From Tisdales recent article, we have this graph showing another model vs. reality divergence.
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NOTHING IN THE INSTRUMENT TEMPERATURE RECORD INDICATES ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING HAS HAD ANY IMPACT ON THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC IN 32+ YEARS
El Niño events take place in the tropical Pacific. Figure 1 is a model-data comparison of the sea surface temperature anomalies of the tropical Pacific since the start of the Reynolds OI.v2 satellite-enhanced sea surface temperature dataset in November 1981. The models are represented by the multi-model ensemble-member mean of the climate models stored in the CMIP5 archive, which was used by the IPCC for their 5th assessment report. (Figure 1 is from the post Maybe the IPCC’s Modelers Should Try to Simulate Earth’s Oceans. See that post for further information.) According to the most current generation of climate models—the latest and greatest climate models—if manmade greenhouse gases warmed the sea surface temperatures of the tropical Pacific, they should have warmed about 0.58 deg C over the past 32+ years, based on the linear trend. But the observed sea surface temperatures of the tropical Pacific show little warming in 32+ years.
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When/if a large or super El Niño forms, you know the usual suspects will try to link it to global warming/climate change. It is as certain as the sun rising in the morning.
So, readers are invited to create statements/headlines that they think are likely to appear in the media, and when we get a hit on one of those, we’ll refer back to this WUWT article and point out that it was expected, but there’s just no linkage.
My contribution is:
Trenberth told us that heat hiding in the ocean would jump out and burn us in the future, and he was right!
Happy headlining!
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I continue to not be satisfied by Bob’s conviction(?) that the ENSO related temperature trend is unrelated to CO2 effect. If Wills is correct that tropical surface temperatures are heavily regulated then it makes sense to me that a plausible explanation for the phenomena Bob most excellently describes is as follows:
1. Excess heat is retained in the tropics as predicted by CO2 theory which puts most of the retention in the tropics.
2. The temperature is regulated per Willis.
3. The heat migrates to the poles or hides in the oceans per Willis and multiple sources
4. The heat is periodically discharged into the atmosphere in an El Nino event.
How does this not explain some of the CO2 induced warming?
As an Arizona resident, I am a great fan of El Nino events. Similarly, I am not concerned about 100+ temperatures.
The Prophecy
Below the dozy masses lie
Foul vapors rise to the fetid sky
its radiant flux to multiply
and warm the earth while creatures die
And all shall feel the wrath again
cast forth by Gaia in her pain
While storms and droughts afflict the land
The Prophets warn to stay their hand
but they did not Then came the hour
when nought could save them but to cower
and wail and mourn the end of time
as they foretold it in their rhyme.
Climate change driven El Niño kills the hiatus.
El Nino’s Arrival Triggers Premature Exhilaration Epidemic Among Bureaucracy Lovers
It Came From The Deep and None Could Deny The Horror
El Nino Chuckie Savages Naysayers
The Wild Child’s Tempestuous Arrival Leaves Skeptics Scattered
Birth of Boisterous Baby Boy Causes Gaia To Have a Maternal Meltdown
When El Nino Viene, of Deniers There Aren’t Many
Alarming Street Celebrations for El Nino Cagwando’s Arrival
True Believers Celebrate El Nino’s Second Coming Joyfully
Thermozilla threatens Apocalypse! Women, Gays worst hit!
• This is what global warming looks like.
• Though it’s natural, this is just a taste of things to come.
• It’s going to bet much worse than this if we don’t mend our eeeeeevil ways.
• Global warming on steroids.
• Get ready for Thermageddon.
• A sure sign of climate change.
• Positive proof of global warming.
“MONSTER EL NINO SWALLOWS KEVIN TRENBERTH”
Dr. Trenberth, a highly respected climatologist known for theorizing that the missing heat is hiding in the ocean depths, ignored the warnings of his colleagues and tried to take the El Nino’s temperature. The fearsome beast took exception to the insertion of a thermometer into its hind parts, and swallowed him whole.
“Kevin was praying for a super el nino,” his friend MIchael Mann lamented. “We all were. But it turned out to be even worse than we thought. Kevin was a true hero. The whole thing is a terrible travesty. I mean tragedy.”
• A climate change monster rises from the deep.
• The sleeping giant of global warming awakes.
• Widespread panic in the Pacific – steam jets rise from the deep.
• Wine to suffer. 🙂
” We TOLD you so!”
(;p) Pamela Grey at 3:16 pm…my glasses make CC=DD…does that make me a normal man ? (;p)
[If you wear glasses, would your icons not be (8p) Mod]
WARMAGGEDON! EL NINO HIDDEN HUMAN HEAT ABOUT TO SPLUNGE ONTO CALIFORNIA! PACIFIC OCEAN COULD TURN RED AND BEACH VOLLEYBALL COULD DISAPPEAR BY THE END OF THIS CENTURY! (IT’S WORSE THAN WE THOUGHT)
No. It just means you will be required to wear your glasses to bed.
oops…P.G.at 3:11 pm…
God gave us poorer up close vision as we age for a reason. We all get better looking in bed as we age 8>))! Hell I could be Ann Margaret for all you know and you could be Burt!
“Hell I could be Ann Margaret for all you know and you could be Burt!”
Had to laugh Pamela. Have you seen Burt lately? Truthfully, I find the whole aging thing deeply depressing, so what else to do but make jokes..
One of my favorite quotes “The greatest surprise in a man’s life is old age.” Boy, how true that’s turned out to be.
Shark-Nino triggers unprecedented shark attacks, experts blame hidden ocean heat.
Polar Bears and Penguins perish in humongous heat wave plastering the Pacific. Earth fries in gargantuan global gas furnace. The hockey stick climbs higher than the Empire State Building. Fires, cyclones, floods, droughts, wars and famines – we have it all. Abandon all hope, and your cars, all ye who live here. Urgent legislation and taxes needed to halt climate change.
Headline: Catastrophic El Nino Projected to Wipe Out All Life on Earth; Women and Children Will be Hardest Hit.
Subhead: Ahead of the disaster, Climate Scientist scurry to secure intellectual property rights to climate data and computer models.
There will be a significant El Nino approaching +2.0C.
The ocean in the Pacific has dozens and dozens of different currents. At the surface at the equator, the water moves from east to west, driven by the rotation of the Earth and the trade winds. 8 degrees away north and south, the surface current flows in the opposite direction, west to east. Much like if you moved your hand through a bathtub of water. In the middle, it goes the direction of hand movement/the trade winds. On the side, it moves back in the other direction.
Now go down 150 metres. These currents also move in the opposite direction. The Pacific equator at 150 metres depth moves west to east and 8 degrees north and south latitude, it moves east to west.
The equatorial west to east Pacific undercurrent, also known as the Cromwell Current, moves 1000 times more water than the Mississippi does.
The undercurrent has, in fact, moved all the warm water in the western warm pool, down to 150 metres depth and then across, the entire Pacific, approximately 16,000 kms to the east in just 4 months. Yeah, 16,000 kms in just 4 months.
This water is going to run up against the Galapagos Islands and it will upwell. It is getting pushed to the east by unknown trillions of tons of water across the entire Pacific at 150 metres depth which continues to move to the east. The flow rate is approximately 30 million cubic metres per second.
The warm water, at +5.0C above normal, has nowhere to go except to the surface at the Galapagos Islands where it will form the El Nino. The upwelling will start within the next few weeks.
It will be a non-typical timeline El Nino peaking much earlier in the year than the usual Christmas period.
El Nino juxtaposed with La Nina explores dimensionless miracles inside quantum sensations.
“Unprecedented Monster El Nino Serves as a Grim Reminder That Man-Made CO2 is Still the Crisis of Our Times”
Subheadline
“We Must Act Now – Major Politicians and Important Celebrities Agree That Massive Carbon-Tax is Our Only Hope for Sustainable Change”
Al Gore said that the temperature would rise again, AND IT DID !
“COW FARTS IN THE AMERICAN HEART LAND CAUSING EL NINO 1,000 YEAR FLOODS”
Harry Reid demands end to food production to end these environmental crimes.
Hot water sloshes back.
Bathtub model of the Pacific confirmed!
GLOBAL WARMING SEA MONSTER THREATENS SCORCHED EARTH