From the we told you so, time and time again department comes this story about Gore’s buddy, Dr. Lonnie Thompson and his Kilimanjaro glacier that just won’t die like they want it to, even though they don’t believe their own hype.
From ETN Global Travel Industry News:
Mount Kilimanjaro Glaciers nowhere near extinction
The legendary glaciers, one of key tourists ecstasy, on Tanzania’s majestic Kilimanjaro mountain, will not melt anytime soon after all, as it was earlier predicted.
America’s renowned climatologist, professor Lonnie Thompson in 2002 projected that the snow on the summit of Africa’s highest mountain would completely disappear between 2015 and 2020, thanks to global warming.
But 12 years down the lane now, local ecologists who have been monitoring the trend say the ice, in fact, remains steady and it is nowhere near extinction.
“There are ongoing several studies, but preliminary findings show that the ice is nowhere near melting,” said Mount Kilimanjaro National Park (KINAPA)’s Ecologist, Imani Kikoti.
Mr Kikoti hints that sustainable rainfalls supply on Mount Kilimanjaro in recent years could be a factor behind the snow resilient.
“Much as we agree that the snow has declined over centuries, but we are comfortable that its total melt will not happen in the near future,” he stressed.
Sometimes in 2006, KINAPA installed three state-of-the-art automatic weather stations on mountain key areas of Shira 2, Mweka and Kibo huts to collect accurate data on weather trends.
Though scientifically, it takes up to 30 years to conclude on whether rainfalls are on increase or otherwise, but Mr Kikoti says the data are encouraging.
more here: http://www.eturbonews.com/44420/mount-kilimanjaro-glaciers-nowhere-near-extinction
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As we’ve said before, it’s about sublimation and lack of water vapor in the atmosphere, not temperature.
The issue is really quite simple.
Much of the sublimation may be due to the forests around the base of Kilimanjaro being cleared for firewood and agricultural use by the locals. Just imagine if they had electricity- they’d no longer need firewood and the trees would return, along with the evapotranspiration that keeps the up-slope winds onto the mountain laden with water vapor.
For example, this is a photo (at left) of Dr. Thompson standing next to an ice spire on Kilimanjaro. Notice any meltwater pools nearby?
You won’t, because they aren’t there. Read this quote from this entry to understand why:
The ice cap on Kilimanjaro consists of ice on the 5,700-meter-high flat summit, some with vertical edges, and several slope glaciers, mostly at altitudes where temperatures stay well below freezing and the major source of energy is solar radiation. Considerable infrared radiation is emitted from the glacier surface into the surrounding air, and the glaciers lose the most mass through sublimation-the direct conversion of ice to water vapor. Observers have seen only a trickle of meltwater.
Dr. Thompson seems not to want to understand the process of sublimation on Kilimanjaro
Of course, it is easy to see why Dr. Thompson wants to keep claiming that the glaciers on Kilimanjaro will disappear, its his business:
Skeptics are once again proven correct.
Has Ann Curry weighed in?
It’s great work if you can keep the gravy train going!
Its clear from the accompanying chart that any fool would keep spouting nonsense if they keep increasing the funding the more crazy and outlandish his predictions and bizarre his explanations. See his hearts in the right place even if his brain can’t make sense of crazy nature. He knows like others that humans are going to destroy the planet so having details wrong is irrelevant.
Nature – Alarmists biggest nightmare.
Time and again we have argued to give the poor access to cheap and abundant electricity. The following is one of the reasons.
Result, a halt in the ice cap reduction.
Even SkS agrees!!!
Lonnie’s wild predictions were just as way out on the Quelccaya Glacier in Peru!
http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2012/12/24/another-wild-alarmist-prediction-bites-the-dust/
Seems it is the grants that are “$ ETTLED”, not the science.
From a climatic point of view we’re living in the best of times.
Only warmer weather makes things even better.
Now with this plain wisdom take a frying pan and hit all the scare monger really hard on the head.
It won’t change their mind but at least they will know what a frying pan is.
In 2012 we saw this bit of shocking news too.
Will Al Gore give up now?
So this is what $10,000,000 gets you these days? This lack of results wouldn’t cut it in the real world.
Melting glaciers are the alarmist ace-in-the-hole. No matter how many different ways you explain to them that AGW is wrong and simply alarmist, no matter how many times you point out flaws in their logic, their final argument is always the same: “But even so, the glaciers are melting. So you have to be wrong.” If they no longer have that, they no longer have their last refuge.
Besides that, who ever listens to a guy called “Lonnie”?
OK, so lets see if I got this right: The Tanzanian government scientists predicted that by halting deforestation, Mt. Kilimanjaro’s glaciers should recover. The Tanzanians then tested the hypothesis and it was found to be correct.
But now Dr. Thompson is confused. Could this be just another example of real world data not matching IPCC CO2 computer model predictions? To IPCC indoctrinated researchers, that would be quite impossible, so the only thing to assume is that the computer models are STILL correct. This leaves the only possible course of action: Shift the predicted catastrophe to another place to ensure that the research $$$ don’t sublimate.
Or did I miss something?
from climate change hero to zero.
“In 2007, he received the National Medal of Science, the highest honor the United States bestows on an American scientist.
At the time, former vice president Al Gore said of Thompson: “His tenacity through the years in countering disbelievers, coupled with the quality of his team’s research from the very beginning, has shown us dramatically the effects we can expect in the near future.
“His work is the most serious warning cry yet that it is time to change our ways,” Gore said.”
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/03/22/207657/lonnie-thompson-global-warming-poses-clear-and-present-danger/
“A type I error, also known as an error of the first kind, occurs when the null hypothesis (H0) is true, but is rejected. It is asserting something that is absent, a false hit. A type I error may be compared with a so-called false positive (a result that indicates that a given condition is present when it actually is not present) in tests where a single condition is tested for. Type I errors are philosophically a focus of skepticism and Occam’s razor. A Type I error occurs when we believe a falsehood.[4] In terms of folk tales, an investigator may be “crying wolf” without a wolf in sight (raising a false alarm) (H0: no wolf).” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_positive#Type_I_error
where do they see this wolf they keep crying is there?
What may have caused the dirty halo around the ice spire on the first photo? Enlarge 200 percent if necessary.
I was on Kilimanjaro in 1985. At the third camp we were on the snow and it was very cold (this coming from a Manitoba boy!) the very early morning of the last stretch. It certainly was not heat that was disappearing the glaciers. If there is precipitation, it will be snow. Surely Thompson et al understands very basic ideas about altitude and temperature.
I notice a grant pause.
Jimbo, go google this: “Post hoc, ergo propter hoc”
So, the mentioned fellow was averaging about $500K per year for the research that he and his wife were leading in Ohio State. This is quite a bit of money and what is the secret of such incredible success in super competitive competition for NSF funding? There is a link at the end of this post to an open letter written in 2010 to that time director of NSF. Did he reply and if he did, what was in this reply?
from the paper
Climate Change: The Evidence and Our Options
Lonnie G. Thompson
The Ohio State University
The Behavior Analyst 2010, 33, 153–170 No. 2 (Fall)
http://researchnews.osu.edu/archive/TBA–LTonly.pdf
” If you connect the dots on the changes seen to date and assume the same rate of loss in the future, within the next decade many of the glaciers of Kilimanjaro, a Swahili word meaning ‘‘shining
mountain,’’ will have disappeared.”
“The evidence is over-whelming that human activity is responsible for the rise in CO2, methane, and other greenhouse gas levels, and that the increase in these gases is fueling the rise in mean
global temperature”
” Many small island nations in the western Pacific (e.g.,Vanuatu) are facing imminent destruction as they are gradually over-run by the rising ocean.”
“In Tanzania, the loss of Mount Kilimanjaro’s fabled ice cover would likely have a negative
impact on tourism, which is the country’s primary source of foreign currency”
“Increasingly, computer models have underestimated the trends because, in fact, the rate of
global temperature rise is accelerating.”
“Around the world organic material is being exposed for the first time in 5,200 years as glaciers recede. In 2002, when we studied the Quelccaya ice cap in southern Peru,
we found a perfectly preserved wetland plant. It was identified as Distichia muscoides, which today grows in the valleys below the ice cap” [my comment-so it melted 5,200 yrs ago? co2? Mount Kilimanjaro ice only dating back 5,200 years too? So what happened then? Shows warmer is normal/not unusual?]
“Our only hope is to change our behavior in ways that significantly slow the rate of global warming,”
@ur momisugly Hans Erren says:
April 7, 2014 at 11:57 am
“I notice a grant pause.”
Yes, but dude seems to be over 70 years old. He is near the finish of spending taxpayer’s money on worthless research. The problem is that multitudes are replacing the old guards. May be it is time to stop them and have some sort of reset for whole system of research funding…
Why does the money graph look like a Hockey Stick? Perhaps the Hockey Stick is the money graph?
Mindert Eiting says:
April 7, 2014 at 11:48 am
Do you mean the very obvious jpeg compression surrounding the spire?
Lonnie knows that the glaciers are melting away, but he refuses to archive the data.
How Inconvenient…