Could we be in for a Super El Niño this year like the one in 1997/98?
Dr. Ryan Maue is seeing hints of a beginning in ocean heat content satellite visualizations.
Maue writes on Twitter:
Quick look at 1997 TC Ocean Heat content anomaly for April 4 shows equatorial extreme + anoms … compare to 2014
And here is April 2014:
Maue writes on Twitter:
Here’s the April 4, 2014 TC Ocean Heat content e.g. depth of 26° isotherm. Like 1997
Certainly, some similarities exist, and it appears the warm pool is just a bit bigger than the one in 1997. If the forecast is to be relied on, we expect to see some sort of ENSO event this year:
![nino34Mon[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/nino34mon1.gif)
More at the WUWT ENSO page
Of course, there’s no doubt that should this build into a full-blown ENSO event, we’ll hear things like “Trenberth’s missing heat has returned, and it’s angry” and “the global warming pause that we didn’t admit existed before is now over”
http://judithcurry.com/2014/03/08/open-thread-8/#comment-479676
El Nino is just an index of relative temperatures in key regions of the ocean. How it affects atmospheric temperatures is probably more in regard to important trends in weather/climate. Some key attributes of enso processes and conditions during them are likely to tell us a lot more about what we can expect heat to do during different phases.
1) Windspeed, this will affect both evaporation and pooling of heat during neutral/la nina conditions.
2) Cloud activity in eastern pacific, particularly during neutral/la nina conditions. (more specifically, amount of DW SW at the surface).
3) Ocean surface current.
4) Sea surface level anomaly in the indo-pacific.
http://judithcurry.com/2014/03/23/more-scientific-mavericks-needed/#comment-500890
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/11/our-new-paper-el-nino-warming-reduces-climate-sensitivity-to-1-3-deg-c/
Warming during el nino also due to reduced low cloud cover [added, it’s not just a release, there’s a forcing]. If another process mitigates the low cloud decrease (such as cooler air temps, winds moving aerosols to the region…), we’d see much less warming from a strong el nino. How might conditions related to PDO/AMO/SOI affect the atmosphere during el nino?
http://judithcurry.com/2014/03/23/more-scientific-mavericks-needed/#comment-502323
“Other effects, as in changes in cloud cover, are either related to the energy flux from ocean to atmosphere, or are minor– certainly orders of magnitude less than the actual flux of energy from the IPWP to the atmosphere.”
I don’t buy that (entirely). Without radiation driving evaporation, I don’t think there’d be nearly as much heat flux. What happened with the el Chichon super el Nino?
http://judithcurry.com/2014/03/23/more-scientific-mavericks-needed/#comment-503157
Rob, I think what a lot of people miss is that it is not just exposure of warm water to the atmosphere, it is also exposure to light. Temperatue affects how much water vapor there can be, but radiation is a big driver of how much evaporation happens. If the albedo is high and the cloud response to el nino is muted, I don’t think there will be nearly as much heat flux from the ocean. A few mechanisms could be wind pattern moving more aerosol to the region, cooler atmospheric temps allowing more low cloud formation, weak solar cycle generaring more CCN. (The amount of UV likely plays a role as well as high energy CRF. I also think the sun may modulate high energy CRF rather than the earth magnetic field and polarity of cycle may play a role.).
Our reservoirs out here in So Cal could sure use some El Niño rain…
If this means I don’t have to go through another winter like this one I’m all in favor of it!
It would also mean more rain for California would it not? Water Mr Watts lawn 🙂
There should be ENSO activity during the peak of solar activity, it goes like this, La Nina during and after solar minimum and El Nino during and after solar maximum. You have to remember solar activity is weaker now compared to the last few solar cycles, and they packed a punch. maybe ENSO reaches a saturation point (who knows), and begins a natural process of regulation, I cant see how anyone finds these variations alarming. take the usual precautions this summer and stay safe!
http://judithcurry.com/2014/03/30/ipcc-ar5-wg2-report-draft-spm/#comment-510202
What about the el Chichon super el nino. If the atmosphere is cool over the el nino and aerosols move in, there won’t be as much SW radiation to drive evaporation. There won’t be the usual forcing and heat will pool again in the indo-pacific and bleed off into the deep ocean al la trenberth (and some maybe to rivers to the arctic al la cowtan and way [added, or the tropics]).
WE need to be looking below the surface. What’s happening to cross-section of the Pacific at the level of the thermocline?
When the thermocline drops off the coast Peru/Equator and rises in the wast Pacific, the surface water will start to flow back.
Latest Jason-2 image:
http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/images/latestdata/jason/2014/20140322P.jpg
I’ve seen very large pools of warm water make their way to the Americas before, some times they cause significant changes at the surface, sometimes they don’t. I think its fair to say there is going to be a “pretty good el nino”, but that’s about it .
What does this potential event and the 1998 event tell us about the radiative energy balance between the Sun and Earth? If that balance isn’t involved (no new energy has been cached) leading up to this then the result is a cooling effect as it would be any time you get stored energy to the surface (and to the atmosphere and beyond). These events appear to be Earth taking out the trash.
Also note that the whole picture is fair bit warmer than 1997. There’s a lot red about but probably not as much E-W contrast.
The picture caption reads: “Pools of warm water known as Kelvin waves can be seen traveling eastward along the equator…” This is grossly misleading. Kelvin waves are not masses of water, but long-period waves that put water into oscillatory orbits. Under the restoring force of gravity, they transport only energy–not matter. In the case of internal (baroclinic) waves, there may be a thickening and thinning of the warm layer above the thermocline as the wave progresses eastward (see http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/MET/Faculty/bwang/bw/paper/wang_103.pdf).
The water of the Pacific warm-pool, however, is no more transported across the equatorial Pacific by these waves than is water from the southern hemisphere brought to the shores of California by summer swell. Such transport is accomplished by the surface equatorial countercurrent and the subsurface Cromwell Current.
Robert Scribbler has been talking about a big Kelvin Wave for a while now.
Such an event would doubtless be hailed as the “end of the pause” in warmist precincts.
@chuck says:
April 4, 2014 at 1:41 pm
The problem is that slr stats are so compromised by AGW bias. And slr is such a tough topic, with subsidence and coastal erosion, that putting much credence in slr claims is likely a waste of time.
The important thing to follow is the heat: the pathway seems to [belay] Nina’s gather/store heat up, el Nino’s dissipate heat into the atmosphere. Heat upwelling implies CO2 release as well, by the way, which means less so-called OA.
Hunter, I agree. Since they massively “corrected” Jason and removed the option to get the data without inv. barometer and the GAIA adjustments , I just regard MSL data as a lost cause.
The amount of propaganda being pushed into the data means it’s pretty much worthless for any science at this point.
1sky1: “Under the restoring force of gravity, they transport only energy–not matter.”
Aren’t Kelvin waves a form of soliton wave? Solitons do displace mass.
My eyeball say’s the current months image looks only half as serious as 17 years ago. Take a deep breath and slowly exhale. Feel better now?
Could a super El Nino cause the 1998 record for RSS to be broken in 2014?
The average anomaly in 1998 was 0.55. The average for the first three months this year so far is 0.213. So a simple equation can be set up as follows to see what average would be required for the remaining 9 months to set a record.
12(0.55) = 3(0.213) + 9x. Solving for x gives 0.66. Naturally this is above 0.55, but a more important number now is what is the highest 9 month average during the 1998 super El Nino. According to the following plot of RSS with a mean of 9 months, that number is 0.63.
See: http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1996/mean:9
Of course this is below 0.66, however the 9 month average at the start of the 1998 El Nino was around 0, whereas it is around 0.2 now. So the climb to potentially set a record is not as high.
It is possible for an El Nino that is almost as strong as the 1998 El Nino to set a record, however things have to move fast. The April anomaly for RSS does not necessarily have to be 0.66, but as a guess, I would say it should jump to at least 0.4 from 0.213 now and then it must make good jumps in the next months. According to the graph above, when the December number for RSS is in, the new 9 month height must be just above the 1998 nine month height in order for a new record to be set.
hunter says:
April 4, 2014 at 2:44 pm
“The problem is that slr stats are so compromised by AGW bias”
Satellite measurements don’t have “bias”
..
http://sealevel.colorado.edu/
The terrifying thing about the prospect of a super El Nino is not the weather consequences, but the resumption of super alarmism yabbering by the CAGW Crowd. Particularly fearful would be the spectre of Trenberth’s missing heat being reported as being sighted somewhere again in the Pacific.
There were no lingering effects of the 1999 event. It came, it went. That energy pulse is out there dancing with the stars.
chuck says: Satellite measurements don’t have “bias”
You apparently know very little of what is involved in satellite altimetry or those who perform it.
Nick Stokes says:
Robert Scribbler has been talking about a big Kelvin Wave for a while now.
“Record global temperatures, extraordinarily severe storms for the US West Coast and telegraphing on through the Central and Eastern US, a disruption of the Asian Monsoon and various regional growing seasons, record heat and drought in Northern Australia, severe drought and fires in the Amazon, the same throughout Eurasia and into the Siberian Arctic, another potential blow to Arctic sea ice. These and further extreme impacts are what could unfold if the extraordinarily powerful Kelvin Wave now racing toward the Pacific Ocean surface continues to disgorge its heat.”
O M G ! It’s worse than I thought.
Thanks for the tip Nick, certainly one to remember.
Greg says:
April 4, 2014 at 2:58 pm
“Aren’t Kelvin waves a form of soliton wave? Solitons do displace mass.”
No, they’re NOT solitons
Here’s an interesting exercise. take the temp impact from the 97/98 EL Nino and the La Nina that follows and splice it on the end of the current UAH temp record. What you end up with is a flat temp trend for 20 years.
Even adding +.2C to all the UAH temps in that splice you only end up with a temp trend at 0.1C per decade. Unless this El Nino markedly exceeds the 97/98 event in terms of its strength and impact on global temps then the “pause” will continue.
One thing I would hope to see here is that before people post on what they think this coming event will or won’t be, at least thoroughly educate on what the drivers of an EL Nino event are and maybe take a look at some of the papers on the 97/98 event.
Some things to consider.
1) During the 97/98 event strong equatorial counter currents influenced the strength of the event. Look at what the equatorial counter currents are now doing.
2) There is evidence that warm anomalies in the central Pacific give rise to conditions more favourable for the generation of kelvin waves.
3) As you head into the NH spring and summer kelvin waves would normally become less frequent however refer to point 2 above.
4) Check the progression of the 97/98 event. It was really only later in the year in 1997 that the full strength hit.
5) The Humboldt current still doesn’t seem to have been significantly disrupted off the coast of South America. Not certain but I believe the equatorial Pacific counter currents may start to exert a greater influence in coming months if they continue to strengthen.
A lot of factors come into play in determining how strong an El Nino event will be and what impacts it will have. Scientists still seem to have a lot of difficulty predicting them accurately.
Here is a link to the page that provides a lot of the climatic measurements related to the equatorial Pacific. I would suggest getting to understand them before making predictions.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml#history
This time may different. There is observational evidence that Svensmark’s mechanism (GCR modulation of planetary clouds, high latitude regions, there is now evidence of cooling in high latitude regions due to increase cloud cover) and Tinsley’s mechanism (solar wind burst removal of ions from high latitudes and equatorial regions) has been reactivated.
P.S.
Look at ocean temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere. There is a very large region of cold temperature anomalies.
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.4.3.2014.gif