Finding a common ground – a conversation with Dr. James Hansen on nuclear power

The Susquehanna Nuclear Power Station, a boiling water reactor.

Dr. James Hansen’s reply to my question about Nuclear Power

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

A a few years ago, Anthony Watts posted a link “The Middle Ground where AGW skeptics and Proponents should meet up“. At AGU2013, Anthony asked Dr. Hansen a question in full session about the very same topic and a video of that exchange follows.

The proposition is, that in the highly polarized global warming debate, there are, or should be, some surprisingly broad areas of agreement. A video also follows showing Anthony asking Dr. Hansen about this at AGU2013

One such area of agreement appears to be support for nuclear power. In addition to the Middle Ground article, WUWT has posted many other articles, on Thorium and next generation nuclear technology, which have been well received by regular readers of this blog.

Dr. James Hansen is also a supporter of nuclear power. A few months ago, James Hansen, Ken Caldeira, Kerry Emanuel and Tom Wigley published an open letter, calling for and end to opposition to nuclear power, for the sake of the environment.

If I have understood correctly, scientists who are truly concerned about CO2, such as James Hansen, support nuclear power, because nuclear power a plausible route to decarbonising the economy, without the difficulty of convincing voters to accept drastic curbs to their lifestyles.

Skeptics like myself tend to support nuclear power, because it is the future – we tend to love high technology and the glorious rise of human civilisation, and yet we are, contrary to the straw man stereotypes projected by many of our opponents, concerned about environmental issues, such as the megatons of toxic ash and sludge produced by coal power stations. We see next generation nuclear power as the clean, inexhaustible energy source of the future.

So I sent an email to Dr. James Hansen mid March this year, asking whether he had ever considered sharing a platform with Anthony Watts, to jointly promote acceptance of a nuclear powered future. I made it very clear I was asking this question on my own initiative, and had not discussed it with Anthony.

This was Dr. Hansen’s reply:-

“The more important matter is the need for a slowly rising revenue neutral carbon fee, 100% of the funds distributed to the public, equal amount to all legal residents.  This would cause nuclear power to win out for electricity. Otherwise we are going to get a very expensive dual renewables–fossil fuel system.  This fee-and-dividend approach is by its nature a conservative agenda, allowing the market to work.  It is also a winning populist political strategy, providing some correction to the increasing disparity of wealth, allowing the hard-working careful low-income person a chance to make some money and contribute to a cleaner, healthier world.  This is what conservatives need to understand.  If they don’t, the changing demographics will sink them, and we will all suffer under a screwed up energy system.”

I replied to Dr. Hansen, pointing out that Conservative opposition to carbon fees was entrenched, and asked whether the issue of how to make nuclear power economically attractive, on which there was no agreement, could be set aside for now, for the sake of jointly promoting  research into next generation nuclear technology.

So far I have not received a reply to my second email to Dr. Hansen.

The conversation and questions I put to Dr. Hansen were meant in good faith. I hope the dialogue I have had to date with Dr. Hansen is not the end, that the conversation goes further, perhaps with other participants. Perhaps I am being naive, but I really am a keen supporter of nuclear power, and would like to find a way for everyone who supports a nuclear future to join forces, to overcome the decades of propaganda against nuclear technology, which has retarded its development in the West.

Here is Anthony asking Dr. Hansen about Thorium power at AGU2013

 

 

0 0 votes
Article Rating

Discover more from Watts Up With That?

Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

178 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Dan in California
March 31, 2014 1:36 pm

Coal and nuclear fission plants generate the lowest cost electricity in the USA. This is why they together make up more than half of the total grid. Here’s a link to more detail about the costs of fission power:
http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Economic-Aspects/Economics-of-Nuclear-Power/
Power generation costs vary widely by country. For example, it costs about $3.5 billion to build a third generation plant in China, and about twice that in the US. This is essentially the same plant, a Westinghouse AP-1000. The cost difference is due to legal fees, environmental studies, cost of money, etc.
I’ve seen scare stories that the world’s uranium supply will run out in tens of years. Those stories make unwarranted assumptions. For example, there is 100,000 years of uranium dissolved in sea water but extracting it will cost about twice as much as current market value. So what? The fuel cost of running a power plant is about 1.5 cents/KWHr, so doubling that would mean an increase of that much, not the “Under my administration electricity costs will necessarily skyrocket” campaign promise of Barack Obama.

AnonyMoose
March 31, 2014 1:37 pm

Comment above says that “Furthermore, the heavy lifting in the Thorium Power promise is in the continuous materials processing of the molten salt core. …next door…”
Why does it have to be next door? I assumed that the core would be topped off with fresh material, while some of the older stuff was shipped to a regional facility for processing.

Doug Uhrig
March 31, 2014 1:37 pm

A few questions:
1. How long can a reactor be used before it can no longer be used?
2. How much does it cost to decommission a reactor and find a “safe” place for radioactive parts and waste?
3. Are our reactors safe from disasters and how much would disaster cleanup cost?
4. Are any of these costs included in the per kwh cost of nuclear energy mentioned above?
Just, you know, asking.

hunter
March 31, 2014 1:39 pm

Roger Sowell offers a very thoguhtful critique of nuclear power based on an article that concludes the costs associated with nuclear power makes it unaffordable on a large scale.
The article and the study it is based on would be more credible if it showed that France, the nation most committed to nuclear fission power, is suffering from unaffordably high power costs.

Gary Pearse
March 31, 2014 1:41 pm

My vision, after all the terrible misallocation of veritable fortunes on CO2 without any demonstrable evidence of its negative impact, is to see private industry funds made available for research on nuclear, and for that matter, any other important sector. Hey, the oil and gas sector is even bankrolling Greenpeace, WWF, etc. etc. Probably government (unlikely the current one in the US) would at least have to provide some framework and incentives, particularly in the policy area, to make it attractive to do this research. One would need a Ronald Reagan to turn the tide.
R&D was turned off by environmentalist impostors who really are anti-civilization zealots and, of course, the endless supply of useful idiots available to any cause. Hard to get the private sector interested in the nuclear sector for this reason.
Roger Sowell says:
March 31, 2014 at 12:36 pm
I am aware of your dated argument about the prohibitive costs of fission energy. A large part of the cost was due to over-redundant design in the the anti nuclear lobby’s pressures. Imagine a scenario 50 years hence where coal burning wouldn’t be allowed to release any CO2 – another Roger Sowell would present the same argument that coal is too expensive a technology. Or another, the price of the aluminum that caps the Washington Monument at $1/ounce – a days wage in the 1890s. Today it’s 78c/lb.
http://www.tms.org/pubs/journals/jom/9511/binczewski-9511.html
If we had had a strong R&D going up until the present, instead of using 1960s technology, you would find safe nuclear for a lot less than what you find in the literature. Even the 50-60s technology globally hasn’t killed a hundred people yet. Chernobyl, an old Soviet to-hell-with-safety design killed about 3/4 of the victims.

Graham Green
March 31, 2014 1:49 pm

Sowell
The UK government have agreed a strike price of £92.50/MwH with the French firm EDF for the first new reactor station. On the face of it this is twice the current wholesale price for electricity yet it compares quite favourably with the price paid for offshore wind generation.
I understand that this is not the same as having an entire grid powered by baseload suppliers and the associated costs of giving the illusion of dispatchability to nuclear generation but the French already operate their nuclear generation, at least in part, as dispatchable.
Either way this is not 5 to 8 times more expensive than current wholesale.
In 10 years time when this station is operational 9 pence/kwH will look pretty darn good.

LT
March 31, 2014 1:51 pm

” If they don’t, the changing demographics will sink them, and we will all suffer under a screwed up energy system.”
Yes Dr. Hansen, clearly you’ve been so good at predictions how could anyone possibly believe another one from you.

March 31, 2014 1:56 pm

Eric: Thanks for your effort to find some common ground on nuclear power between WUWT Skeptics and Dr. James Hansen, who is perhaps the original Warmist/Alarmist. I am pleased he replied to you (and indirectly our WUWT readers), albeit to push his Carbon Tax proposal.
Way back in 2010, right here on WUWT, in my capacity as a Guest Contributor, I wrote the following:

You may be surprised that I favor some version of a straight Carbon Tax, collected at the mine, well, and port, with the proceeds returned on an equal basis to citizens and legal residents. Yes, James Hansen and (pardon the expression Ralph Nader) also favor it, but, so do conservative columnist Charles Krauthammer, the Wall Street Journal, and others on the right. My support for this tax is based on what I wrote above, “We cannot fight something with nothing” and “We have spent, and continue to sacrifice too much blood and treasure protecting our access, and that of our allies, to energy from unstable regions of the world.”

See my WUWT Topic at: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/05/30/skeptic-strategy-for-talking-about-global-warming/
I favor a STRAIGHT CARBON TAX, collected at the port, oil/gas well, and coal mine and NOT the CAP and TRADE SCAM which is a politician’s delight and will not work.
A STRAIGHT CARBON TAX at the SOURCE is what Hansen and Conservative columnist Charles Krauthammer and the Wall Street Journal and I favor. That will allow market forces (and NOT the inefficient and politically-connected forces that own our government) to select the most economical alternative energy source, be it nuclear, water, wind, biomass, or some combination, while still using fossil fuels which will be the major energy source for many years to come. The revenues from the STRAIGHT CARBON TAX would be returned to all citizens and legal residents of the US on an equal basis to partially make up for the higher cost of carbon-based fuels.
As you might expect, that part of my much longer and well-received Topic generated some heated comments here at WUWT, but I made it clear my main motivation for a STRAIGHT CARBON TAX was NOT primarily for reducing our CO2 footprint. The MAIN purpose of a STRAIGHT CARBON TAX is to reduce our dependence on foreign oil from unstable countries and thereby conserve some of the blood and treasure of defending our access, and that of our allies around the world, to low-cost petroleum from unstable sources. Who is paying that cost? The general population, in the form of taxes towards the defense budget, plus the lives of thousands of their sons and daughters, and serious injuries to tens of thousands more.
I wrote more about why I favor this type of tax and I included links to Krauthammer and the Wall Street Journal and one of the charts Hansen used in his 2008 Congressional testimony on my personal blog here: http://tvpclub.blogspot.com/2008/12/james-hansen-favors-carbon-tax.html
and here: http://tvpclub.blogspot.com/2009/03/carbon-tax-yes-cap-no.html
and here: http://tvpclub.blogspot.com/2008/10/carbon-tax-loser-too-bad.html
Please read that material, as well as the comments and my replies on my WUWT Topic: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/05/30/skeptic-strategy-for-talking-about-global-warming/
and continue the conversation!
Ira Glickstein

Bruce Cobb
March 31, 2014 2:04 pm

Of course “carbon” taxes would have to come first. That’s the only way they could make nuclear economically feasible, i.e. by punishing coal especially, but also NG.
Hansen envisions killing coal and building nuclear plants, which would drive energy prices sky high.

more soylent green!
March 31, 2014 2:05 pm

…The more important matter is the need for a slowly rising revenue neutral carbon fee, 100% of the funds distributed to the public, equal amount to all legal residents.

The above is one of those things only a college professor would believe. It’s just another scheme for redistribution of the wealth, with the hidden caveat that the money wouldn’t be distributed as a direct payment but instead through increased government “services.”

MikeUK
March 31, 2014 2:11 pm

Many people are so locked into an anti-CO2 battle that they can’t see where energy should be focused, into low-cost alternative energy sources.
The Great Anti-CO2 War will rage without a winner until mankind develops a low-cost alternative.

March 31, 2014 2:13 pm

AnonyMoose at 1:37 pm
Why does [the LTF reprocessing planet] have to be next door?

All the salt has to be reprocessed, but only every ten days.

A LTFR plant consists of a Thorium+Uranium233 core and a chemical reprocessing plant acting like a kidney removing the waste products and reactor poisons. It has to be a near continuous process. That’s why it needs to be next door, connected to the core by two well blanketed pipes.
Because of the mechanics involved, I envision kind of a 5-spot arrangement of cores and reprocessors in an LTFR array. This allows for 1 reprocessing plant to service up to 4 cores and each core could call upon up to 4 neighboring reprocessing plants. ‘Cuz I expect the reprocessing plants to be a lot less dependable than the cores.
Rasey 6/24/13 01:00for a fuller discussion with links to sources.

Note well that the 2-fluid core (U-233 core, Thorium blanket) is mechanically more complex, but allows for simpler reprocessing. A 1-fluid core is the mechanically simpler design (and the one most talk about), but requires the more complex reprocessing scheme. So it is important not to confuse the differences.

more soylent green!
March 31, 2014 2:14 pm

Sowell —
I’m not in the position to dispute any of the numbers, I just want to point out that to the warmists, any price is worth it.
Does anybody have the numbers to compare the scenario of a grid powered solely by nuclear fission plants v. a grid powered solely by wind and solar, or wind, solar and geothermal, or any combination of exclusively alternative energy sources?
BTW: Are there many advocates of using solely nuclear power for our grid? The last time I read any of Robert Bryce’s work (see Power Hungry) he advocated for a base of nuclear power with natural gas plants to supply additional power on demand. It’s Bryce’s view closer to the mainstream?

Rob Bradley
March 31, 2014 2:26 pm

A review of Hansen’s energy re climate positions can be found here: http://www.masterresource.org/2014/03/hansen-more-energy-realism/

bair polaire
March 31, 2014 2:32 pm

WUWT has posted many other articles, on Thorium and next generation nuclear technology, which have been well received by regular readers of this blog.

Count me out. I’m not ready to accept the proliferation risk of the thorium reactor. Bad people could feed it a lot of ugly stuff and get really dangerous stuff out… And as usual we would develop the technology that they might one day use against us.
And I’m not accepting nuclear waste that is still hazardous when my grandchildren grow up. A half-life of more than 100 years is simply not acceptable. 30 years would be the upper limit. That brings the original waste down to 10 percent in about 100 years. (Still not gone!)
Here is quite a good summary of the issues with thorium reactors:
Not ‘green’, not ‘viable’, and not likely
In this Briefing, we examine the validity of the optimistic claims made for thorium fuel, MSRs and the LFTR in particular. We find that the claims do not stand up to critical scrutiny, and that these technologies have significant drawbacks including:
– the very high costs of technology development, construction and operation.
– marginal benefits for a thorium fuel cycle over the currently utilised uranium / plutonium fuel cycles
– serious nuclear weapons proliferation hazards
– the danger of both routine and accidental releases of radiation, mainly from continuous ‘live’ fuel reprocessing in MSRs
– the very long lead time for significant deployment of LFTRs of the order of half a century – rendering it irrelevant in terms of addressing current or medium term energy supply needs

Thirsty
March 31, 2014 2:33 pm

@Ira Glickstein 1:56pm “The MAIN purpose of a STRAIGHT CARBON TAX is to reduce our dependence on foreign oil from unstable countries and thereby conserve some of the blood and treasure of defending our access”
A noble goal but the first question is why a carbon tax and not an oil tax if dependence on ‘bad guy’ oil is the problem? Given the development of new regional gas and oil resources the calculus has changed dramatically since 2009.
Using a little hindsight analysis, if this carbon tax was in place it may have crimped the massive investment in regional oil and gas reserves and voila no current energy renaissance.

FreeTheNukes
March 31, 2014 2:34 pm

Some of the assumptions that Roger makes are incorrect. I’m not sure why he adds in 4 cents per kw/hour for the installation of cooling towers, pumps, and steam bypass valves. I can’t speak for all US nuclear plants, but the ones that I’m familiar with have all of those components as a part of the basic heat transfer cycle. Also the 60% capacity factor figure is not accurate for US nuclear plants. Last figure I saw was in the high 80s.
He is correct in stating that our current plants are not designed to easily be ‘load-following’, however I’m not sure how big of a problem this really is. I don’t think we will ever see 100% of electricity generated via nuclear power. There will always be some renewables/natural gas plants to do the load following.

DMA
March 31, 2014 2:41 pm

The 2014 Cold Fusion LANR Colloquium just finished at MIT with multiple presentations of heat production from nuclear sources that promise clean,cheap, abundant energy with no radiation problem and a potential of widely distributed small sources to replace the grid. These folks from all over the world have struggled without any appreciable monetary help for 25 years to bring their discoveries to a world in need of energy but ,much like the “Global Warming ” problem have been hampered by misinformation and politicization. If they had received 1/100000 th of the money spent on hot fusion research we would have this alternative power source now. As it is there are working research reactors in several countries and 3 or 4 private researchers that anticipate commercial products within a few years. Another promising field of research is anutronic fusion that has also struggled without adequate funding while billions are thrown away on 150 year old technology like windmills and diffuse sources like solar.
If CO2 were a problem the reasonable way to control it is to develop a technology that will replace it because of economic considerations. Conventional nuclear and thorium reactors are good choices for now but the future is full of better alternatives.

March 31, 2014 2:51 pm

Nuclear power is good if done properly.
The whole “carbon free” aspect is bogus.

March 31, 2014 2:52 pm

Just some air chair pondering.
Half a century ago, even before the new ice age coming, I decided to study physics in order to help solving the energy problem that we would face in the future, especially when it would be so cold. This was aggravated by the OPEC oil boycot in the early seventies.It was clear that he who has the energy has the gold, as in the golden rule.
It was also obvious that there was no alternative to going nuclear. I made windmill calculations in that time only to find that these were six to ten orders of magnitude less efficient than nuclear.
But that’s all mood because it has nó relation to whether or not global warming “is true”, We are mixing economy/political/ideaistic bias with objective (true/false) science. How we need to secure energy is totally unrelated to the (in)significant role of carbon dioxide.
For instance if you persuade the herd to go nuclear or get fried by global warming, then when inevitably the moment comes when gobal warming dies for good, then the reason to go nuclear also disappears.
You cannot do poltics based on lies, It may seem to work on short term but it will backfire in the long term when the truth has finaly its boots on.

March 31, 2014 2:53 pm

I commend Eric Worrall on his initiative.
It’s pleasant to discover a like-minded individual who shares my judgements, specifically those in favour of nuclear power and against fake markets.
As a youth I was a science fiction enthusiast, and in favour of nuclear power. I changed my stance upon reading Ralph Nader’s “The Menace of Atomic Energy.” The part that particularly swayed me was Nader’s account of three scientists who resigned from the nuclear industry in protest against it’s dangers. That story turned out to be a lie.
I later read the late Dr Petr Beckmann’s marvelous book “The Health Hazards of NOT Going Nuclear.” Partisan as a Green’s publication, it’s nevertheless rational as well. In it, he puts many of Nader’s misleading claims in context. I was particularly impressed by the fact that the three resigners were all converts to a religious cult that opposed plutonium as the devil’s work ‘because it is not found in God’s nature.’ This is a fact that Nader could not have helped but know. nevertheless he intentionally concealed it. Beckmann’s arguments are as valid today as the day he wrote them.
Only Dr Hansen can truly say what motivates his weasel-worded rejection. After all, this proposal would contribute to the world adopting a policy initiative that would in his judgement ‘save the world’. But am I wrong to think it’s arrogance? That he’d rather see the world go to hell than co-operate with Anthony Watts on anything at all? Perhaps I am wrong. But it definitely looks that way.

Bruce Cobb
March 31, 2014 2:58 pm

There may indeed be a future for nuclear, and I hope there is, but not in its current state. The cost kills it. Carbon taxes is most certainly NOT the way to go.

rogerknights
March 31, 2014 3:07 pm

Here’s a three-part solution I endorse, spelled out in a book called “Prescription for the Planet: The Painless Remedy for Our Energy & Environmental Crises,” whose details are outlined in the first reader-review, by G. Meyerson:
This book is a must read for people who want to be informed about our worsening energy and ecology crisis. Before I read this book, I was opposed to nuclear power for the usual reasons: weapons proliferation and the waste problem. But also because I had read that in fact nuclear power was not as clean as advertised nor as cost competitive as advertised and was, moreover, not a renewable form of energy, as it depends upon depleting stocks of uranium, which would become an especially acute problem in the event of “a nuclear renaissance.”
Before I read this book, I was also of the opinion that growth economies (meaning for now global capitalism) were in the process of becoming unsustainable, that, as a consequence, our global economy would itself unravel due to increasing energy costs and the inability of renewable technologies genuinely and humanely to solve the global transport problem of finding real replacements for the billions of gallons of gasoline consumed by the global economy, and the billions more gallons required to fuel the growth imperative. I was thus attracted to the most egalitarian versions of Richard Heinberg’s power down/relocalization thesis.
Blees’ book has turned many of my assumptions upside down and so anyone who shares these assumptions needs to read this book and come to terms with the implications of Blees’ excellent arguments. To wit: the nuclear power provided by Integral Fast Reactors (IFR) can provide clean, safe and for all practical purposes renewable power for a growing economy provided this power is properly regulated (I’ll return to this issue below). The transportation problems can be solved by burning boron as fuel (a 100% recyclable resource) and the waste problem inevitably caused by exponential growth can be at least partially solved by fully recycling all waste in plasma converters, which themselves can provide both significant power (the heat from these converters can turn a turbine to generate electricity) and important products: non toxic vitrified slag (which Blees notes can be used to refurbish ocean reefs), rock wool (to be used to insulate our houses–it is superior to fiber glass or cellulose) and clean syngas, which can assume the role played by petroleum in the production of products beyond fuel itself. Blees’s discussion of how these three elements of a new energy economy can be introduced and integrated is detailed and convincing. Other forms of renewable energy can play a significant role also, though it is his argument that only IFRs can deal with the awesome scale problems of powering a global economy which would still need to grow. Tom’s critique of biofuels is devastating and in line with the excellent critiques proferred by both the powerdown people and the red greens (John Bellamy Foster, Fred Magdoff); his critique of the “hydrogen economy” is also devastating (similar to critiques by Joseph Romm or David Strahan); his critique of a solar grand plan must be paid heed by solar enthusiasts of various political stripes.
The heart of this book, though, really resides with the plausibility of the IFR. His central argument is that these reactors can solve the principal problems plaguing other forms of nuclear power. It handles the nuclear waste problem by eating it to produce power: The nuclear waste would fire up the IFRs and our stocks of depleted uranium alone would keep the reactors going for a couple hundred years (factoring in substantial economic growth) due to the stunning efficiency of these reactors, an efficiency enabled by the fact that “a fast reactor can burn up virtually all of the uranium in the ore,” not just one percent of the ore as in thermal reactors. This means no uranium mining and milling for hundreds of years.
The plutonium bred by the reactor will be fed back into it to produce more energy and cannot be weaponized due to the different pyroprocessing that occurs in the IFR reactor. In this process, plutonium is not isolated, a prerequisite to its weaponization. The IFR breeders can produce enough nonweaponizable plutonium to start up another IFR in seven years. Moreover, these reactors can be produced quickly (100 per year starting in 2015, with the goal of building 3500 by 2050)), according to Blees, with improvements in modular design, which would facilitate standardization, thus bringing down cost and construction lead time.
Importantly, nuclear accidents would be made virtually impossible due to the integration of “passive” safety features in the reactors, which rely on “the inherent physical properties of the reactor’s components to shut it down.” (129)
………………..
Still, if such a new energy regime as Blees proposes can solve the climate crisis, this is not to say, in my opinion, that a growth regime is fully compatible with a healthy planet and thus a healthy humanity. There are other resources crucial to us–the world’s soils, forests and oceans come to mind–that a constantly expanding global economy can destroy even if we recycle all the world’s garbage and stop global warming.“

Here’s the Amazon link:
http://www.amazon.com/Prescription-Planet-Painless-Remedy-Environmental/dp/1419655825/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1236568501&sr=1-1

strike
March 31, 2014 3:15 pm

I wouldn’t make common cause with James Hansen, He’s a priest of church of global warming and therefore lacks honesty and credibility.

Leo Geiger
March 31, 2014 3:16 pm

A revenue neutral carbon tax is often cited by economists as an efficient means of reducing emissions. At its heart is the understanding that people are smarter than governments. Given a market based incentive, people will find the most efficient ways to reduce emissions. The province of British Columbia is a real world example that it can be done successfully:
http://www.theatlanticcities.com/jobs-and-economy/2014/03/how-british-columbia-enacted-most-effective-carbon-tax-north-america/8732/
A single revenue neutral carbon ‘tax’ (it is almost a misnomer to call it a ‘tax’ when it is revenue neutral) can be used to replace all the wasteful government subsidies on green energy, biofuels, bureaucratic ‘command and control’ regulations, complex cap-and-trade systems, and so on.