UPDATE: Missing plane ended in southern Indian Ocean: Malaysian PM
KUALA LUMPUR — Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 ended its flight in the southern Indian Ocean based on fresh data from a UK satellite company, Malaysia Prime Minister Najib Razak said tonight (March 24).
Mr Najib said British satellite company Inmarsat and the UK Air Accidents Investigation Board (AAIB) had used a new system to calculate MH370’s flight path.
“I was briefed by representatives from the United Kingdom AAIB today and Inmarsat, who had performed further calculations on their existing data,” Mr Najib told reporters.
“They had used a new type of analysis which had previously never been used before in an investigation like this,” he said. The analysis concluded that MH370 flew along the Southern Corridor and that its last position was in the middle of the Indian Ocean, West of Perth.
“This is a remote location, far from any possible landing site,” said Mr Najib. “It is therefore with deep sadness and regret that I must inform you that, according to this new data, flight MH370 ended in the southern Indian Ocean,” he said.
http://www.todayonline.com/world/asia/mh370-malaysia-pm-najib-razak-holds-press-conference
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I still get the news-feed from AMSA since the Chris Turney Ships of Fools trapped in ice event, and today it looks like they are going all out with an international effort, so I thought I would pass this on for interested readers. Here is the press release, and a map and satellite imagery follow.
24th March, 2014: 11am (AEDT)
Ten aircraft are involved in today’s search for Malaysia Airlines flight MH370. Two Chinese military aircraft departed about 8.45am and 9.20am respectively. A RAAF P3 Orion departed for the search area just after 9am.
Two ultra-long range civil jets departed about 10.10am and 10.30am respectively. A second RAAF P3 Orion is scheduled to depart about 11am.
A third ultra-long range jet is scheduled to depart about midday.
A US Navy P8 Poseidon aircraft is scheduled to depart about 1pm. The two Japanese P3 Orion aircraft are scheduled to depart after 4pm.
Media Note: Updated search area charts are now available in AMSA’s media kit for this search. These can be accessed at the following link under Day 7 search area charts: http://www.amsa.gov.au/media/incidents/mh370-search.asp
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Source: http://www.amsa.gov.au/media/media-releases/2014/
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Here is the current search area. Click to enlarge.
Satellite imagery of debris. Click to enlarge.
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That all these souls have not been accounted for is sad. I applaud the international effort to correct this problem. My hat’s off to all those who have participated in the search.
Is a sudden decompression (brought on by climate change perhaps?) theory possible? I hope they find passengers alive but realistically I hope they find the plane and bring closure to the families.
Many news channels, bloggers, commenters are questioning the capabilities of modern day surveillance capabilities not realising that the Earth is not only vast but also treacherous where human and its technology fails.
Yes, failure of airborne electronic system is intriguing and some rumours have been added by media savvy ‘experts’ but whole issue demands new ways of search and rescue and survivability of on board, post crash electronic alarms, transmission!
Hope the ill fated Malaysian aircraft MH370 is located asap and gives us valuable inputs for future operation!
for better or worse, hopefully there will soon be an answer to the dissapearance of the plane.
meanwhile, Ben Maddison, who accompanied Turney on the Ship of Fools, more concerned about his own/passengers’ schedules than grateful for the rescue:
23 March: Illawarra Mercury: Joshua Butler: UOW academic recalls ice ship drama
It was one of 2013’s most talked-about news stories, and University of Wollongong academic Dr Ben Maddison will this week recount his experiences aboard the trouble-plagued Antarctic research ship Akademik Shokalskiy.
From Antarctica to the pub, Dr Maddison will speak at the Uni In The Brewery event on Wednesday from 5.30pm, sharing stories from aboard the Spirit of Mawson voyage…
“We were quite philosophical about the situation,” he said in response to criticisms in the media about the boat’s mission and the resources expended in the rescue. “It was inconvenient more than anything, it messed up our schedules,” he said.
http://www.illawarramercury.com.au/story/2169365/uow-academic-recalls-ice-ship-drama/?cs=300
28 Feb: Guardian: As Antarctica opens up, will privateer explorers be frozen out?
Alok Jha, who was on the vessel, reports
In the short term, arguments over whether or not the AAE was a scientific expedition will be settled by its outputs. Longer term, persuading the scientific community that projects not funded by national agencies can still do good science could be a long, uphill struggle…
The Antarctic Treaty requires all expeditions to be authorised by government authorities but countries differ in how they implement the rules. For example, British citizens, planes or vessels going to Antarctica are assessed on environmental grounds, whether the expedition will be operated safely and if it is properly insured. The Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) adds that the UK examines whether or not a proposed expedition is self-sufficient, not just in terms of food and fuel but whether or not the people can get themselves out of trouble without relying immediately on help from a national Antarctic programme.
In contrast, the Australian system only looks at the environmental impact of a proposed expedition, not an expedition’s safety or self-sufficiency…
AAE leader Turney said he had learned lessons but had not been discouraged from working on ways to bring private money to future research expeditions to Antarctica…
The scientists agreed there would be work to do in persuading the wider scientific community that the research aims of any future private expeditions were robust…
To mitigate such criticisms in future, Turney suggess that private expeditions could seek endorsement from an independent scientific panel, perhaps overseen by a learned society, which ran in parallel with their logistical planning…
Turney: “If we hadn’t got caught by that sea ice, and that was an extreme event, we’d achieved almost everything we’d set out to do,” he said. “And that’s the frustration because this model potentially works so well.”…
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/28/-sp-antarctica-privateer-explorers-scientific-research-territory-polar-code
With multiple satellite sightings of debris it is looking likely this is the crash area.
This remote location on route to nowhere combined with the early radar plots does indicate some incident other than human intervention, a “flight of the dead” scenario. This has happened before with a private jet in the US and with a twin engine King-Air in Australia when de-pressurisation occurred and alarms failed to sound.
Of note is the aircraft rising to over 45,000′ then making a staggering uneven decent. This matches uncontrolled flight out of the flight envelop into “coffin corner” where the speed of aerodynamic stall converges with the speed of supersonic shock stall and the resulting uncontrolled loss of altitude.
Currently this vessel the Ocean Shield –
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ADV_Ocean_Shield
-is sailing to the area. The Ocean Shield can support ROV operations that will be able to attain the 3600m depth required to recover debris. Even if the black(orange)box cannot be recovered, it should be possible to determine if a lithium battery cargo fire disabled the aircraft.
It would not be the first time what should have been considered cargo only suitable for a dangerous goods flight has ended causing disaster for a passenger flight. On 11 May 1996 Valujet flight 592 was lost due to hazardous cargo (old aircraft oxygen generators) causing an intense fire.
The Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA) is doing what would be expected given the circumstances. The SW portion of Australia is the only suitable point to launch a search to the region being searched. I feel confident that all is being done that can be done.
Now for the injection of bullshit from MotherJones http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2014/03/climate-change-malaysia-airlines-370-search
A couple of yappy dogs Stephen Rintoul, Joellen Russell, and Mathew England are trying to get in on the press action claiming CAGW is hampering the search operations by causing changes to the currents in the area being searched. We messed up the currents!
So I opened the following link to ocean currents http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/orthographic=-271.70,-31.10,855 and in another tab looked at the search area and it appears that the current search area (day 7) per the AMSA is located in an area with a lesser amount of surface currents. There is probably better ocean current sites but this one was handy.
I think Rintoul, Russell, and England need to shut up this one as they look foolish and it is not the time to pitch their CAGW nonsense.
I would appreciate anyone who could provide a link to a better ocean current/surface analysis.
Mark and two cats wrote, [‘Mark and two cats’ comment was stupidly insensitive and has been removed – Mod]
That was an ignorant and xenophobic comment. China Airlines has ten Boeing 777-300ER aircraft on order plus four options with deliveries starting in September 2014. Air China began operating the first of its 19 Boeing 777-300ERs in mid 2011. Air China also operates 10 Boeing 777-200 which are scheduled to be replaced by Airbus A330-300s.
And finally …
http://www.netcomposites.com/news/boeing-finalise-600-million-in-contracts-with-chinese-suppliers-for-787/3022
I would like someone with expertise to answer my question. It has to do with this debris in the south Indian Ocean.
Satellite images have found some debris. OK. Based on the wind and ocean currents over the last 14 days, where was this debris when the plane landed/crashed?. Then, how does THAT location compare to the flying range of a fully loaded Boeing 777 flying not at 32,000 feet but at 2,500 feet altitude as reported?
As I see it, if this is farther than the plane can travel, they are wasting their time.
By the way, if it was a hijacking, couldn’t the plane have landed in Bangladesh, also a Muslim country, without crossing the air space of India radar?
My Summary:
Transponder turned off prior to final comms indicates plane was hijacked. If a typical terrorist plan, they would fly into some large building along the route or in Beijing.
If hijacked and something went wrong and it went down, the group responsible would have lit up the airwaves immediately.
Why hijack a plane and drop it in the most remote location possible, maybe to never be located?
If flown to one of the “Stans”, wouldn’t it have to cross Indian air space for hours?
What if the cargo no one apparently wants to talk about was fuel?
Are US flights the only ones with armed marshals?
My greatest fear is that it is someplace being readied for a horrific event, a true WMD….
God help those onboard…
@Konrad and others
“Of note is the aircraft rising to over 45,000′ then making a staggering uneven decent. This matches uncontrolled flight out of the flight envelop into “coffin corner” where the speed of aerodynamic stall converges with the speed of supersonic shock stall and the resulting uncontrolled loss of altitude.”
The immediate rise to 45,000 ft and very rapid descent later is consistent with the pilot-in-control depressurizing the cabin and deliberately asphyxiating the passengers. The O2 supply that drops from the ceiling lasts for about 30 minutes (being a burning little block of material that produces O2). If the pilot held out at 45,000 feet ft for longer using both the available pilot O2 supplies, he would outlast the passengers.
As his own supply failed, he would dive to regain breathable air and/or re-pressurize at 20,000 ft. There is no sensible reason to have performed such a maneuver, literally on the limit of the height capability other than to prevent the passengers from somehow storming the cockpit.
I am sorry we have so many competing militaries in that region. It is unbelievable that they do not know where the flight was headed/ended, literally unbelievable. The US has a radar capability that can be parked in Los Angeles and track the movement of a baseball in New York City. The reason I am sure they have an automatic recording of all flights in the region is that CNN put someone on TV to specifically deny it. They did the same immediately after Snowden announced the massive domestic surveillance programme: bring out a codger to announce no one could pull off such a technical feat. Right… No military wants to reveal their capabilities. You think Chinese satellite picture resolution shows a 71 ft object with 15 pixels?
When KAL 007 was shot down over Kamchatka the US produced (a month later) a recording of the pilot receiving orders to pull the trigger. The capabilities of tracking aircraft are far better than they were 27 years ago. Gimme a break, this is embarrassing. Find the tapes; go get the black box.
Brad says: “My Summary:
Transponder turned off prior to final comms indicates plane was hijacked.”
Very likely a hijacking, which was then aborted by a country that has history of confrontations with planes, a very tight control over negative information, and a shoot first mindset.
It find it utterly fascinating how this event has acted as a kind of nucleus around which all kinds of whacky conspiracies have coalesced to form a giant ball of nuttiness; even here on WUWT which is mostly pretty sane.
What amuses me most is how each of the scary scenarios is constructed on the smallest fragments of actual evidence. Remind you of anything?
The Chinese ice breaker Snow Dragon is involved in the search. Free of ice this time.
The Chinese have also spotted something in the ocean north of the initial site, they have sent military aircraft and the ice breaker along too.
It may be this is the wreckage: maybe not. Time will tell.
I do not subscribe to conspiracy notions.
In my flying days, a long time ago, there was a useful fellow called George, a very simple autopilot who could fly the aeroplane straight and level. So if you got yourself into serious difficulties, as I did a couple of times, you pushed the tit and George took over while you sorted out the problems and George minded the shop. Certainly George saved my life at least once. .
I do not and cannot know what happened here but I do suspect that something overwhelmed the flight crew and in fairly short order too. It might have been a fire or a decompression caused by structural failure. Or something else. I doubt we will ever find out.
Modern autopilots are very sophisticated, you set in the way points and all the rest and they fly the plane. But all that takes time. I do not think the flight crew had much time. So in desperation they set in a basic course on the autopilot, presumably to what they thought was their nearest emergency field, and then succumbed. And the autopilot simply flew the aeroplane on until it ran out of fuel.
I may of course be entirely wrong, We shall see if the wreck is found and anything useful can be recovered. But I am not hopeful that we can or will ever know.
Kindest Regards
Debris field with Chinese sighting area
(see if this works!)
Mark and two Cats (Mar 23 @ur momisugly 8:16am);
[‘Mark and two cats’ comment was stupidly insensitive and has been removed – Mod]
How would you feel, or would you say the same comment had any family/relatives, friends or work colleges had been on-board of Flight MH370?
I find your comment disgusting and un-called for. You should hang your head in shame.
I also find it offensive to the comments comparing this to the ‘Ship of Fools’. This is a completely, unrelated issue to the ‘Climate Change Wars’ and should have NO references to CC/AGW.
Please people, leave your differences of CC/AGW aside on this very tragic and mysterious incident.
Could we please stop cracking jokes about this? It is just not funny.
A Boeing 737-31S flying from Cyprus to Athens in 2005 was lost from radar and did not respond, planes scrambled and they would have shot it if it were pointing into the city,but it stayed at 33000 feet on a holding pattern over the airport until its fuel ran out and it crashed in an uninhabited area north east of Athens . The fighter pilots saw a steward who had also piloting knowledge trying to gain control of the airplane a few minutes before the fuel ran out and it crashed.
I still cannot find the reason for the decompression ( the black boxes were sent to France for analysis is all the greek wiki tells me) , but there must have been a decompression that killed the pilots, some of the passengers were found with oxygen masks still on their face.
So accidents and mechanical failures happen , it was not the Turks ( our eternal enemies 🙂 ) nor a terrorist plot.
I found the result from the boxes. A switch that controlled the pressure of the cabin had been left on manual and the pressure gradually dropped until the pilots got hypoxia.
btw the holding pattern was over the aegian, not the airport.
The US Navy says it is sending a black box locator to an area of the southern Indian Ocean being scoured for the missing Malaysian jet, following a cluster of weekend debris sightings.
The navy called the move a “precautionary measure” in case those sightings confirm the location of the aircraft which disappeared on March 8 with 239 people on board.
“If a debris field is confirmed, The Navy’s Towed Pinger Locator 25 will add a significant advantage in locating the missing Malaysian aircraft’s black box,” Commander William Marks, a spokesman for the US Seventh Fleet, said in an e-mailed statement.”
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/aviation/chinese-spot-objects-in-search-for-missing-flight-mh370/story-e6frg95x-1226863350195
@ur momisugly Speed
Nicely put. My thoughts exactly. Thank you
Speed says:
March 23, 2014 at 9:25 pm
Mark and two cats wrote, [‘Mark and two cats’ comment was stupidly insensitive and has been removed – Mod]
That was an ignorant and xenophobic comment. China Airlines has ten Boeing 777-300ER aircraft on order plus four options with deliveries starting in September 2014. Air China began operating the first of its 19 Boeing 777-300ERs in mid 2011. Air China also operates 10 Boeing 777-200 which are scheduled to be replaced by Airbus A330-300s.
And finally …
“Today’s agreements, in full compliance with U.S. and Chinese export regulations, offer a continuing example of the important and growing role in China on the 787 and participation in the 777, 747 and 737 airplane programs,” Corvi said. ” China’s aviation industry is providing outstanding technological capabilities and resources that help us meet quality, cost and delivery imperatives in our programs – particularly on the new 787. China has been a reliable partner to Boeing for many years and we are honored that they are part of our future with the 787 airplane.”
http://www.netcomposites.com/news/boeing-finalise-600-million-in-contracts-with-chinese-suppliers-for-787/3022
latest… most will remember the chinese icebreaker, Xue Long – it is on its way to the area:
Malaysia Airlines MH370: Chinese search plane finds ‘suspicious objects’ in Indian Ocean, reports say
Searchers discovered “two relatively big floating objects with many white smaller ones scattered within a radius of several kilometres”, Xinhua said, citing a reporter on board a Chinese Ilyushin-76 plane.
The larger objects were “white and square”, it added…
“The crew has reported the coordinates to the Australian command centre as well as Chinese icebreaker Xuelong, which is en route to the sea area,” Xinhua said…
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-24/chinese-search-plane-finds-suspicious-objects-in-indian-ocean/5341692
Actually, I have expertise in many areas that encompass this search effort. Aviation, navigation, navigation systems, search-and-rescue planning, over-ocean airborne search operations, military air-defense radar systems, military air defense procedures and processes, electronic communication systems, etc. In fact, this case is almost perfect for my combination of expertise.
I have never in my life witnessed a more pathetic circus show over the past 2 weeks. Far too much speculation has been asserted as facts. People with a single area of expertise are opining about issues they really don’t understand. I had to stop counting the number of erroneous statements I’ve heard and read.
Your question is good. Unfortunately, it’s difficult to answer given that I have zero confidence in any of the information that’s been previously reported. There is no foundation of facts that exist.
For example the supposed range circles that were previously provided didn’t indicate the assumed altitude of the aircraft (which is what you seem to be asking) or the winds at such altitude. It’s difficult for me to believe that range would be a circle – instead of ovals that are oriented according to the winds that night.
Officers that man Rescue Coordination Centers (RCCs) are very good at calculating drift, etc. The problem is that they probably don’t know anything about satellite handshaking systems. Therefore, they might be overly reliant on what the Inmarsat engineers are claiming. I really don’t have any confidence in the “range arcs” that have been provided. I haven’t seen or heard anyone scrutinizing the claims being made by the Inmarsat engineers. I’d love to get one of them on camera and start asking about the consistency of the aircraft system’s latency during the handshaking process, about their satellite’s ability to accurately measure the time between handshake interrogation and response, about their system’s ability to record these times with enough precision, about the aircraft’s ability to continue handshaking with the satellite while floating intact on the surface of the ocean while running on battery power, etc.
I’m also incredibly disgusted by 75% of the claims regarding something being impossible or absolute. For example, I think it’s possible to penetrate many countries’ airspace undetected (the likelihood being dependent on the country). I’m also not convinced that the aircraft even made the 100+ degree left turn after the transponder stopped functioning. In order to be convinced, I would need to be shown the recording of how well the raw military radar returns matched up with ATC’s transponder returns while the transponder was operating – and then continue to scrutinize the quality of the recorded military radar returns.
Anyway, there’s not way to stop the circus now. We’ll just have to see how it plays out.