Mystery plume radar image near Nuclear Test Site – solved

Occam’s Razor – the simplest explanation is most likely

People ask me to look into weird things all the time. Since I operate a weather business that specifically offers weather radar analysis and tracking software, I got asked to look at this image from a Daily Mail article which claimed: Weather experts baffled by mystery plume on New Mexico radar near 1945 nuclear bomb test site

FDX_radar_flock1

An animation of the plume follows: 

FDX_mystery_plume_anim

I’ve seen images like this dozens of times before.

It is very likely a large swarm of birds taking off. The first two frames are the giveaway. When birds take off from the ground, they are tightly packed from their feeding/roosting area. When they go aloft, they immediately spread out, and that is exactly what we see in the first two frames of the animation. Compare it to Figure 2 in the article below and the animation below and you’ll see what I mean.

100811_roostring

Source: NWS Doppler Radar Detects “Roost Ring” on Green Bay

A similar dramatic roost ring was documented on August 10, 2006. And there was a similar event during the Oklahoma Earthquake in Nov 2011.

Our sensitive NEXRAD WSR-88D Doppler Weather Radar network is routinely capable of picking up bird swarms like this, something we couldn’t see with older WSR-57 and WSR-74 weather radars. The NEXRAD system can also pick up bugs and bats that exhibit typical swarm behavior. We’ve all seen huge swarms of birds that blot out the sky, so of course they can be picked up by weather radar looking for rain, since birds, like humans, are mostly made up of water.

File:Rail Bridge Swarm of Starlings. - geograph.org.uk - 124591.jpg
Rail Bridge Swarm of Starlings. The normal term would be a flock of starlings but this is not so usual.Date 18 February 2006 Image: Wikipedia

It could also be insects, such as these examples:

Weather radar catches massive bug swarm

A vast swarm of bugs that covered much of the northern half of the North Island last night and this morning has been caught on the Metservice weather radar.

MetService didn’t know what it was and entomologists were puzzled.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/8340259/Weather-radar-catches-massive-bug-swarm

And: A huge hatch of mayflies on radar:

188179688_75ca4f94c5[1]gg080111[1] 188179688_75ca4f94c5[1]

http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1683&dat=20060707&id=3LkoAAAAIBAJ&sjid=MUUEAAAAIBAJ&pg=2110,3731197

From NOAA:

Bird Detection via Doppler Radar

Angie Enyedi (radar animation by Jason Deese)

National Weather Service Jacksonville

Doppler radar transmits pulses of energy into the atmosphere, and when this energy intersects a target, information about the density (radar reflectivity) and motion (radar velocity) of the target is transmitted back to the radar (Figure 1).  Most of the time the Doppler radar beam intersects targets composed of water vapor, including clouds, rain drops and hail stones. Meteorologists utilize this data from the radar to interrogate storms, which makes the Doppler radar a critical component of the proactive severe weather warning service that the National Weather Service (NWS) provides.

Sometimes, the radar beam intersects other objects, including birds.  When there is a high density of birds in one location, typically during bird migrations, sometimes as the birds take flight the radar beam intersects the flock.  This happened in several locations across coastal Southeast Georgia on the morning of October 25, 2009, right around sunrise.  This is a favored time for birds, particularly waterfowl, to leave their nocturnal nesting sites on bodies of water to either continue their migration or return to their favorite daytime refuges.

The animation (Figure 2) illustrates two large and one smaller area of birds taking off, as detected by the NWS Jacksonville Doppler radar. In addition, there is a Google Map (from Google Earth) to reference for location (Figure 3).  It appears as though the southernmost flock arose from the Satilla River near Woodbine, while the other flock ascended from a tributary of Buttermilk Sound, just west of Little St. Simons Island. A third, but smaller flock, appears to have flown from the western side of Cumberland Island National Seashore.

Many bird enthusiasts utilize radar imagery to track migration patterns. Radar imagery has also been helpful to both birds and humans regarding aviation safety. Most airport terminals use radar data to track birds as they cross flight paths to avoid collisions.

Click here for more information on the NWS Doppler Radar.

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UPDATE: For those of you who say bird swarms can’t be that big…

Reader JohnS notes:

Submitted on 2014/03/19 at 4:05 pm

The playas at 34.655294° -105.900141° might be good candidates for a starting point, since they are probably wettest around this time of year. Note the line of bird choppers to the south.

REPLY: Good candidate, here is the satellite view, clearly a seasonal wetland: http://maps.google.com/?ll=34.759666,-105.867004&spn=2.008193,1.972046&t=h&z=9

Windsong says: March 19, 2014 at 3:36 pm

Large flocks migrating at night quite common in my area. Some interesting images here: http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2013/09/mega-bird-migration.html

I’ve reproduced the relevant parts from Cliff Mass, who writes:

Starting with the radar image (composite of all altitudes) at 7:49 PM Saturday night, we see a lot of ground-clutter returns (the lower radar beams hitting the surface mainly).

About an hour later (9:09 PM) and after sunset, things have really changed.  Lots of echoes and some very intense.  These are the birds.  Birds don’t like to migrate offshore very far and you can see that in the echoes.

 12:22 PM the echo coverage has expanded.  Lots of birds on the move

 5:37 AM there are still some birds, but the numbers are dropping.

 And after sunrise at 6:39 AM, nearly all are gone and we are back to ground clutter

The Langley radar is a Doppler radar and it gives the velocity of the targets (in this case birds) towards or away from the radar.  Here is the Doppler image at 12:46 AM.   Green indicates approaching and red and orange going away.   Clearly the birds are heading south!

Now let me show you something interesting.   Here in Seattle we have a very special type of weather radar, called a radar-wind profiler, located at the NOAA facility at Sand Point.   Instead of sweeping horizontallly, this radar has three static beams, mostly facing upwards. This radar picks up birds as well.  Take a look at an image from this radar for the 24-h ending mid-day Sunday.  The y-axis is height in meters and time is on the x-axis (in Greenwich Mean Time (GMT, UTC), 06 is 11 PM, 12 is 5 AM, etc.).  Stronger returns are in purple, blue, and green.  The birds are obvious.  Around 03 UTC (8 PM) we we see the start of the bird echoes.  Lots of flying in the evening, which fades a bit in the middle of the night.  But you see a complete collapse after 5-6 AM as it starts getting light out.

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March 19, 2014 8:54 pm

re: fobdangerclose says March 19, 2014 at 7:24 pm
Of some note, when and where did the dust storm that hit Lubbock Texas Tuesday nite start up?
Amarillo RADAR Tuesday morning until about 6 PM:
http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KAMA&prod=bref1&bkgr=black&endDate=20140318&endTime=23&duration=8
Lubbock RADAR from 11AM until about 8 PM:
http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KLBB&prod=bref1&bkgr=black&endDate=20140319&endTime=2&duration=10
Looks like things really got going north of Lubbock about 2:30 CDT in the afternoon.
(my times might be off an hour – the radar image times are in GMT, about 5 hrs ahead of CDT)
.

March 19, 2014 9:11 pm

Isn’t this interesting … same phenom seen tonight coming from the area north of the HDX White Sands RADAR site beginning at 2359z (about 7PM CDT) 19Mar2014.
RADAR loop below runs from 1902z (2 PM CDT) 19Mar2014 to 0259z (10PM) 20Mar2014
http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KHDX&prod=bref1&bkgr=black&endDate=20140320&endTime=-1&duration=8
Interesting … bats coming out of cave(s) maybe?
Nothing of note on the LWIR sat image, nothing on visible up until dusk either.
.

March 19, 2014 9:29 pm

Call me a skeptic (again). Don’t buy the bird or bat explanation… too large too fast.
a better explanation is in the Clovis/CAFB weather history:
http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KCVS.html
18 / 1900 MST – 2300 MST (0200Z – 0500Z) blowing dust & low clouds (1500′ to 3000′) rolling through. w/probably virga showers.

Adam
March 19, 2014 9:57 pm

“Occam’s Razor – the simplest explanation is most likely” … but not necessarily the correct one. Occam’s Razor as an argument of proof of one theory over another is about as Anti-Science as it gets.
Two learned scientists debating their theories:
“Shut up! My explanation is the simplest. You are wrong.”
“But er…”
“No, no. SHUT UP! OCCAM”S RAZOR – I WIN.”

John Moore
March 19, 2014 10:11 pm

Interesting observation.
Here in south-central Arizona, we often see large strong (30-50dBZ) areas of echo caused by military chaff from the military practice ranges in the western part of the state.
Dr. Robert Maddox, former head of NSSL, studied these an tentatively concluded that as the chaff drifts eastward, it inhibits lightning in thunderstorms. At his talk, he showed a day when there were many severe thunderstorms across the area (common here in monsoon season). A significant area of them had zero lightning – per the lightning detection networks. The only plausible cause was the chaff, by mechanisms unknown. This was around a decade or more ago – I don’t know what has happened since the,.

Steve
March 19, 2014 11:12 pm

A thermal collapsing after nightfall, kicking up dust?

Scott
March 20, 2014 1:05 am

Not bats–they return to the caves after overnight feeding. They certainly don’t fly hundreds of miles away.
Since it appears to have gone as far as Lubbock, I agree with _Jim. Must have been a dust storm or perhaps smoke from a fire (or a combination). Does dust or smoke give off that kind of echo by itself?

GabrielHBay
March 20, 2014 3:52 am

Hmm… I would have thought that if they were bats or birds the swarming would be a regular (daily?) occurrence and thereby a well known and unsurprising event. Even migrating birds would at least be a seasonally well known event, surely? So why then the surprise? Seems like an indication that it is something totally different. Any thoughts on this aspect?

johnmarshall
March 20, 2014 4:03 am

Good explanation, I agree with you Anthony.

ralfellis
March 20, 2014 4:59 am

Here is a good video of a starling murmeration. Fast forward to about 1:45

March 20, 2014 5:02 am

Bernie McCune says:
March 19, 2014 at 5:53 pm
*******
thanks, I looked at some photos and it really looks pretty cool.
like demons swarming out of the earth LOL

March 20, 2014 5:06 am

ralfellis says:
March 20, 2014 at 4:59 am
************************
that gets SUPER cool around 2 min mark.

Peter Beswick
March 20, 2014 5:11 am

I think Occam’s Razor might also determine that if it was a secret military test, we aint going to be told what is was.
Or it could be a natural phenomenon, closer examinations and comparisons of the Radar Cross Section frequencies from both the meteorological and military radars that recorded this event and the rate of progress/speed of the cloud combined with wind speed recorded at the time might give some more clues but if it was a secret test then the military are not going to part with classified data.
The initial propagation and dispersal data should also be looked at in closer detail.
Were there any eyewitness accounts from along the route? At what height did the cloud travel and how deep was it?
I doubt a very large chaff cloud would have endured as long as this event but a aerosol carrying medium may very well.

March 20, 2014 6:30 am

re: Steve says March 19, 2014 at 11:12 pm
A thermal collapsing after nightfall, kicking up dust?
Easy enough to check, even at night; check the LWIR sat imagery … (during the day a visible image will do)
.

March 20, 2014 6:37 am

I’ve been to a NWS facility in Norman, Ok, and they have similar pictures on the wall there, I think they had bat’s, bird’s, and insect’s radar returns.

March 20, 2014 6:38 am

re: Peter Beswick says March 20, 2014 at 5:11 am
…I doubt a very large chaff cloud would have endured as long as this event but a aerosol carrying medium may very well.
Even. If. it has happened before (chaff that is):
Radar chaff over Redstone Arsenal unusual, lingered in atmosphere 10 hours
http://blog.al.com/breaking/2013/06/radar_chaff_over_redstone_arse.html
10 hours … TEN HOURS … perhaps the world’s record …
Still does not explain how the phenom originates repeatedly from one spot and migrated far to the east, as far east as Texas and east/southeast of Amarillo, visible from multiple WSR-88D as it progresses … see prev posts such as:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/03/19/mystery-plume-radar-image-near-nuclear-waste-site-solved/#comment-1594502
Chaff, bats, birds, insects, smoke plume ‘capped’ by unusual atmospheric vertical stack-up or composition (we have had ‘smoke’ and ash reign down on us near Dallas fro fires in old Mexico for instance) or a combo of the foregoing perhaps.
.

March 20, 2014 6:41 am

Oh, I think they had a car in a tornado as well!

March 20, 2014 6:46 am

Will have to check the HDX (White Sands) WSR-88D again tonight to see if this phenom can be observed for A THIRD DAY IN A ROW …
… as observed JUST LAST NIGHT (only shouting here to underscore that the point that this phenom has been observed for two nights in a row so far) per this post: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/03/19/mystery-plume-radar-image-near-nuclear-waste-site-solved/#comment-1594502
Hmmm … one should go back to the 16th and 17th and check the HDX and FDX WSR-88D RADARs to check to see if this phenom was recorded then, too.
.

Brewster
March 20, 2014 6:50 am

This area is just east of where I am now. Certainly no standing water in that area, it hasn’t really rained here (> 0.1 inch anyway) since last year. Closest water (and birds) would be the Bosque Del Apache area on the RIo Grande. Recent high winds would produce large dust clouds and there has been some fires (10,000 acres or so).

March 20, 2014 7:08 am

Hmmm … these ‘blips’ (returns, echoes to be more precise) seen on the White Sands Nexrad made the press out in New Mexico. Recall, from looking at the time stamps on the HDX and FDX RADARs this was the ‘plume’ that evolved into what made the lead in the head post in this thread (just in case everybody is not up to speed.)
So, here is the news bit:
Speculation surrounds Socorro County ‘event’
Radar blip occurred within White Sands Missile Range
10:46 PM MDT Mar 19, 2014
http://www.koat.com/news/new-mexico/speculation-surrounds-socorro-county-event/25065350

OCORRO COUNTY, N.M. —There is speculation surrounding a radar blip that occurred east of Socorro Wednesday.
Some weather experts believe it was some sort of test involving chaff, a reflective material dropped from aircrafts — usually military aircraft — to fool heat-seeking missiles.
Most agree it was a single event, and that the event occurred near a point along Highway 380 in southeast Socorro County. The blip occurred southeast of the city of Socorro and just northwest of the town of Carrizozo.
It was within the White Sands Missile Range.
Winds from the southwest quickly diffused the plume (as seen by radar in the image above).
On Wednesday evening Socorro County officials weren’t aware of any fires in the area.
Other experts believe it was not an explosion or fireball, and if it was it was a significantly low-level explosion. Again, most believed it to be some sort of chaff experiment.

– – – – – – – – – – –
Recall, from posts further above in this very thread, that the results of this ‘experiment’ could be observed continuously via the several adjacent Nexrad RADARs from New Mexico and into Texas, as documented in this post:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/03/19/mystery-plume-radar-image-near-nuclear-waste-site-solved/#comment-1594447
and here, the RADAR just inside New Mexico to the west of Texas (the one Anth_ny has a ‘loop’ of at the top of this thread, just using a different ‘source’ than the UCAR.edu website I use):
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/03/19/mystery-plume-radar-image-near-nuclear-waste-site-solved/#comment-1594457
.

March 20, 2014 7:11 am

Oops, the just-above news bit should be SOCORRO COUNTY, N.M. and not OCORRO.

March 20, 2014 7:14 am

A question:
In the animation, the plume begins about 0130Z at roughly the latitude of Las Vegas, which is UTC -8, or 1730PST. Sunset at Las Vegas is 1750PST on March 17th (from USNO chart).
Wouldn’t that mean the plume started right around sunset, or is my timing off?

March 20, 2014 7:29 am

ralfellis says:
March 20, 2014 at 4:59 am
Here is a good video of a starling murmeration.

I had something like this go through our neighborhood a couple years ago, never seen anything like it before (or sense), so many birds and so noisy!

March 20, 2014 7:36 am

Anthony-
Please stop producing logical explanations for what occurs here in New Mexico. We need all the whacked-out UFO tourists we can get. One good spooky “I don’t know, but it could be-” from you could produce tens of millions for local economies.
Sincerely,
Chris in Santa Fe

Reply to  Chris Marrou
March 20, 2014 8:56 am

“I don’t know, but it could be-”

Anyone see the movie Pitch Black?
I wouldn’t go out after dark…

March 20, 2014 7:50 am

Errata
This post: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/03/19/mystery-plume-radar-image-near-nuclear-waste-site-solved/#comment-1594502
Should instead have this link in order to see the phenom again _last night_ (2nd night in a row):
http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KHDX&prod=bref1&bkgr=black&endDate=20140320&endTime=6&duration=8
Reason for change: Previous RADAR loop time was relative to the or a *present* point in time, vs being specified as an absolute time, so the desired loop imagery was not being displayed.
These ‘loops’ will be non-operative in a few days anyway, as the UCAR.edu website purges files over 5 or 6 days old.
.