From the University of Hawaii ‑ SOEST, something I’ve never heard of before. Note the photo.
During very strong El Niño events, sea level drops abruptly in the tropical western Pacific and tides remain below normal for up to a year in the South Pacific, especially around Samoa.
The Samoans call the wet stench of coral die-offs arising from the low sea levels “taimasa” (pronounced [kai’ ma’sa]). Studying the climate effects of this particular variation of El Niño and how it may change in the future is a team of scientists at the International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawai’i at Mānoa and at the University of New South Wales, Australia.
Two El Niño Taimasa events have occurred in recent history: 1982/83 and 1997/98. El Niño Taimasa differs from other strong El Niño events, such as those in 1986/87 and 2009/10, according to Matthew Widlansky, postdoctoral fellow at the International Pacific Research Center, who spearheaded the study.
“We noticed from tide gauge measurements that toward the end of these very strong El Niño events, when sea levels around Guam quickly returned to normal, that tide gauges near Samoa actually continued to drop,” recalls Widlansky.
During such strong El Niño, moreover, the summer rain band over Samoa, called the South Pacific Convergence Zone, collapses toward the equator. These shifts in rainfall cause droughts south of Samoa and sometimes trigger more tropical cyclones to the east near Tahiti.
Using statistical procedures to tease apart the causes of the sea-level seesaw between the North and South Pacific, the scientists found that it is associated with the well-known southward shift of weak trade winds during the termination of El Niño, which in turn is associated with the development of the summer rain band.
Looking into the future with the help of computer climate models, the scientists are now studying how El Niño Taimasa will change with further warming of the planet. Their analyses show, moreover, that sea-level drops could be predictable seasons ahead, which may help island communities prepare for the next El Niño Taimasa.
At Ocean Sciences 2014:
PROJECTIONS OF EXTREME SEA LEVEL VARIABILITY DUE TO EL NIÑO TAIMASA, Oral presentation Session #:079 Rising Sea Level: Contributions and Future Projections; Date: 2/26/2014; Time: 12:00; Location: 313 B; http://www.sgmeet.com/osm2014/viewabstract.asp?AbstractID=15569
Widlansky, M.J., A. Timmermann, S. McGregor, M.F. Stuecker, and W. Cai, 2014: An interhemispheric tropical sea level seesaw due to El Niño Taimasa. J. Climate, 27 (3), 1070-1081, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00276.1.
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As for the spelling vs pronunciation… blame that on the Dutch. W is H, T is K…
Hooey I say:
Many years ago when I was a small child back in the 30’s on a farm in Nebraska; my Father would say “Hooey” quite often. I of course asked what does Hooey mean? He said, “when I take the Honey bucket out in the Morning to empty it, I throw the contents high in the air so as to cover as much area with Hooey as possible”.
“Their analyses show, moreover, that sea-level drops could be predictable seasons ahead”
Their money where their mouth is????
Might be worth betting against.
To Gehenna with their models and projections, predictions, and looking into the future!
If the locals have a word for it, perhaps 1982/83 was not the first ever occurrence of this phenomenon. The flat top of the coral in the photo has the look of a guyot (tablemount) and, thus, repetitive wave action. This aspect of the Pacific may be newly reported but not new. Historic research will be more interesting than standing on a dozen models and shouting ‘unprecedented’ and/or ‘we are all doomed’.
At this rate gravity will be called upon as a global warming factor, depending on the need of course.
So what does this mean?
It’s called voodoo Climastrology my friend.
Would this lead to coral bleaching if solar irradiance is at its maximum?
Oops. A sea level drop of about 200 mm can indeed be seen at the tide gauge of Pago Pago, American Samoa, according to PSMSL (Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level) in 1998. Coordinates of that tide gauge are LON -170.69, LAT -14.28.
The funny thing is Interactive Sea Level Time Series Wizard of the Sea Level Research Group at University of Colorado, which uses satellite measurements, shows no such drop at the same site at all.
Tells something about the quality of sea level data.
I don’t see a mechanism here for global warming or global cooling. What I see is a mechanism that works with energy already here, moves it around some, but which has no effect on how much arrives from the Sun nor how much escapes to space. If this kaimasa event changes the balance of energy between Sun and Earth it remains beyond our ken to know how. At lease with CO2 we can be sure that the atmosphere has greater capacity to accumulate energy, even if that greater capacity leads to negative feedbacks that counter it (or positive, for that matter – we don’t know). The kaimasa event doesn’t even affect CO2 level. It has this in common with ENSO events.
“…which may help island communities prepare for the next El Niño Taimasa.”
Prepare how? Raise the skegs? Issue gasmasks?
Thanks, A., I guess.
Another costly “study” to find scary tidings.
Their crystal ball is not well isolated from their heavy breathing, this makes it murky and very angry.
I wish it was possible to predict ENSO, or this new variation, for longer than a few months.
Anthony, this may regard differentiating ENSO types…
http://www.usclivar.org/sites/default/files/meetings/ensodiversity2013/mcphaden_m_ppt.pdf
I find it difficult to believe that this occurrence at such wide time intervals has any lasting implication for coral growth. More likely that this is a response to regular tidal behavior … which I have successfully replicated in an aquarium with Acropora sp. Then I noticed that the claims originate with UNSW. ‘Nuff said.
crosspatch says:
February 20, 2014 at 9:24 am
This is not rocket science.
For you and me, perhaps. Apparently these “climate scientists” awake every day to a whole new world, reset to basic parameters, and then set out to write new grant proposals to reprove the world. Are they just idiots, or are they simply the worst brigands in the history of science, pillaging the generosity of the masses in providing grants for “advancing knowledge”?
Did I miss something or is this a two point data set? Gosh, I was still trying to find the time to figure out nino modakai, or however it’s spelled. Still, it makes sense that in strong ninos sea level will drop in the western Pacific.
The models actually produce an index for enso. It is wrong, of course, and not at all predictive, but they do sense the emergent phenomenon. My suggestion is they get rid of the f=20 parameter for CO2 and try again.
Obviously this research is incomplete. I propose the government give me a few million and I will go to Samoa and dive the reefs for a few years to complete this study. Who wants to be a co-researcher?