Claim: Extreme weather decides distribution of insects

Another modeled result, extrapolated all the way from 10 common fruit fly species to everything else in the insect world.

Extreme weather caused by climate change in the coming decades is likely to have profound implications for distributions of insects and other invertebrates. This is suggested by a new study of insects in tropical and temperate regions of Australia.

As climate change is progressing, the temperature of our planet increases. This is particularly important for the large group of animals that are cold-blooded (ectothermic), including insects. Their body temperature is ultimately determined by the ambient temperature, and the same therefore applies to the speed and efficiency of their vital biological processes.

Fruit flies have been the model for a study that has shown how climate change may affect insect distribution in the future. (Photo: Ary A. Hoffmann)

But is it changes in average temperature or frequency of extreme temperature conditions that have the greatest impact on species distribution? This was the questions that a group of Danish and Australian researchers decided to examine in a number of insect species.

Johannes Overgaard, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Denmark, Michael R. Kearney and Ary A. Hoffmann, Melbourne University, Australia, recently published the results of these studies in the journal Global Change Biology. The results demonstrate that it is especially the extreme temperature events that define the distribution of both tropical and temperate species. Thus climate change affects ectotermic animals primarily because more periods of extreme weather are expected in the future.

Fruit flies were modelled

The researchers examined 10 fruit fly species of the genus Drosophila adapted to tropical and temperate regions of Australia. First they examined the temperatures for which the species can sustain growth and reproduction, and then they found the boundaries of tolerance for hot and cold temperatures.

“This is the first time ever where we have been able to compare the effects of extremes and changes in average conditions in a rigorous manner across a group of species”, mentions Ary Hoffmann.

Based on this knowledge and knowledge of the present distribution of the 10 species they then examined if distribution was correlated to the temperatures required for growth and reproduction or rather limited by their tolerance to extreme temperature conditions.

“The answer was unambiguous: it is the species’ tolerance to very cold or hot days that define their present distribution,” says Johannes Overgaard.

It is therefore the extreme weather events, such as heat waves or extremely cold conditions, which costs the insects their life, not an increase in average temperature.

Periods of extreme heat and thus drought may be the cause of death for many insects. (Photo: COLOURBOX).

Drastic changes in store

With this information in hand, the researchers could then model how distributions are expected to change if climate change continues for the next 100 years.

Most terrestrial animals experience temperature variation on both daily and seasonal time scale, and they are adapted to these conditions. Thus, for a species to maintain its existence under varying temperature conditions there are two simple conditions that must be met. Firstly, the temperature should occasionally be such that the species can grow and reproduce, and secondly, the temperature must never be so extreme that the population’s survival is threatened.

In temperate climate for example, there are many species which are adapted to endure low temperatures in the winter, and then grow and reproduce in the summer. In warmer climates, the challenge may be just the opposite. Here, the species might endure high temperatures during the dry hot summer, while growth and reproduction mainly occurs during the mild and wet winter period.

The result was discouraging for all 10 species.

“Climate change will result in fewer cold days and nights, and thus allow species to move toward higher latitudes. However climate change also leads to a higher incidence to extremely hot days and our model therefore predicts that the distribution of these species will be reduced to less than half their present distribution”says Johannes Overgaard.

“In fact, our predictions are that some species would disappear entirely in the next few decades, even when they have a fairly wide distribution that currently covers hundreds of kilometers”, adds Ary Hoffmann.

“Although none of the 10 species studied are normally perceived as either harmful or beneficial organisms for human society, the results indicate that distribution of many insect species will be changed dramatically, and it will probably also apply to many of the species that have particular social or commercial importance “, ends Johannes Overgaard.

Source, Aarhus University: http://scitech.au.dk/en/roemer/feb14/ekstremt-vejr-afgoer-insekters-udbredelse/

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Steve from Rockwood
February 21, 2014 5:08 am

This is classic meaningless climate science nonsense. Insects to be at risk due to climate change. Yet a few years ago we were treated to trees being at risk as insects spread outward in a warming world. Insects taking over. Insects going extinct. It’s all bad news.
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-013-1024-9
The Emerald Ash Borer. Now if we could only teach the ash borer how to eat cockroaches.

richard
February 21, 2014 5:21 am

I am the wrong one, i should have read more carefully, this is the trouble, i see these articles and switch off.
“In fact, our predictions are that some species would disappear entirely in the next few decades,

Doug Huffman
February 21, 2014 5:37 am

I have seen no evidence that Ixoides are susceptible to extremes of environmental temperature, tolerating freezing temperatures and heatwaves. Their primary abiotic liability is to dessication and starvation. The vast majority of their limited travel is up to their questing site and down into the detritus to rehydrate. Without a stadial feeding, starvation results within a few tens of days.

Latitude
February 21, 2014 5:43 am

..and yet mosquitoes (malaria) will take over the world

Pamela Gray
February 21, 2014 5:45 am

Well of course. Duh. Coulda told you that. How much money did you spend to discover this for yourself. Grasshopper populations, and many other winged insects, see their populations wax and wane because of extremes all the time. Crop eating insects have been studied for DECADES to determine their tolerance to extremes so that farmers know whether or not to spray. Could you not have just WALKED over to the ag school and fricken ASKED?????
The list of animals studied in relation to extreme weather pattern fluctuations is very long and you couldn’t find one that coulda told you about this well-known, well-observed, don’t need a stinkin MODEL to answer your dumb-ass question?
(me, brick wall, banging head)

izen
February 21, 2014 5:51 am

[snip – try again, and this time use citations instead of rants – Anthony]

milodonharlani
February 21, 2014 5:52 am

Insects have benefited greatly from the massacre of millions of birds & bats by windmills & solar panels installed at horrendous expense by Greenshirt blackmailers.

izen
February 21, 2014 6:34 am

@- dbstealey
“The climate is always changing. Always has, always will. Furthermore, there is nothing happening now that is either unusual, or unprecedented. Everything currently being observed has happened before, and to a much greater degree.”
Wrong, the present rate of rise in CO2 in the atmosphere and the consequent reduction of ocean ph is much greater than any past natural event, even the PETM.
http://eesc.ldeo.columbia.edu/courses/w4937/Readings/Pearson.Palmer.2000.pdf
the present rise in sea level, atmospheric humidity and temperature also exceed the rate experience for the whole of human civilisation when the holocene has otherwise been uncharacteristically stable in its climate for over 8000 years. A stability that may well explain the rise of human civilisation based on intensive collaborative agriculture.
https://www.sciencemag.org/content/339/6124/1198.abstract

Jimbo
February 21, 2014 6:42 am

Whenever we see articles like these people point to adaptation, acclimatization and migration. Here are some on abstracts on acclimatization of the fruit flies Drosophila which may or may not mean they could cope with the modeled computer temperature predictions for Australia in 2100. We’ll know in 87 years.

Abstract
Heat-shock tolerance and inbreeding in Drosophila buzzatii
…..All flies were conditioned at 36.5°C for 75 min prior to exposure to stress, to activate the synthesis of heat-shock proteins. These proteins are known to protect cells against stress damage. The younger group of flies were exposed to a thermal stress of 40.7°C for 88 min, 103 min, or 118 min and the older flies to the same temperature only for 88 min or 103 min, as the survival of older flies after heat stress was much lower than that of the younger flies…….
http://www.nature.com/hdy/journal/v74/n2/abs/hdy199523a.html
——————-
Abstract
Effects of inbreeding in three life stages of Drosophila buzzatii after embryos were exposed to a high temperature stress.
…The interaction between inbreeding and high-temperature stress was examined in the cactophilic fruit fly, Drosophila buzzatii. Embryos of four inbreeding levels (F = 0, F = 0.25, F = 0.375, F = 0.5) were either maintained at 25°C throughout egg-to-adult development or were exposed to 41.5°C for 110 min at an age of 20 h. Hatching, larva-to-pupa survival, pupato-adult survival, and egg-to-adult survival were estimated. Heat shock reduced hatching rates, but survival to adulthood for individuals that hatched was unaffected by the heat shock……
http://tinyurl.com/ka3roh7
——————–
Abstract
Effects of extreme temperatures on phenotypic variation and developmental stability in Drosophila melanogaster and Drosophila buzzatii
…….Drosophila melanogaster and Drosophila buzzatii. In both species, a general trend for increasing of phenotypic variation and fluctuating asymmetry at stress temperatures was observed; in fluctuating asymmetry, this effect was more pronounced……
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1095-8312.1997.tb01780.x/abstract

Jimbo
February 21, 2014 7:10 am

The insects survived!!! Ho, ho, ho. The PETM was a geological period of high global surface temperature of about 6C. The devastating results can be seen below. We must act now.

Patterns in Palaeontology: The Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum
Fossil leaves from Wyoming show that both the overall amount and the number of types of damage increased during the PETM. This is consistent with higher carbon dioxide concentrations reducing the nutritional quality of the plant material and stimulating increased feeding. Higher temperatures might also have increased insect population sizes…….
…….The equatorial forests, therefore, not only survived the PETM warmth, but seem to have flourished in it, with enhanced speciation and limited extinction increasing the number of plant species present.
http://www.palaeontologyonline.com/articles/2011/the-paleocene-eocene-thermal-maximum/
———————
Abstract
Biogeographic and evolutionary implications of a diverse paleobiota in amber from the early Eocene of India
…. The amber is very partially polymerized and readily dissolves in organic solvents, thus allowing extraction of whole insects whose cuticle retains microscopic fidelity. Fourteen orders and more than 55 families and 100 species of arthropod inclusions have been discovered thus far, which have affinities to taxa from the Eocene of northern Europe, to the Recent of Australasia, and the Miocene to Recent of tropical America. Thus, India just prior to or immediately following contact shows little biological insularity. A significant diversity of eusocial insects are fossilized, including corbiculate bees, rhinotermitid termites, and modern subfamilies of ants (Formicidae), groups that apparently radiated during the contemporaneous Early Eocene Climatic Optimum or just prior to it during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum……
http://www.pnas.org/content/107/43/18360.short
/

Curious George
February 21, 2014 7:47 am

We can now model an evolution of ecosystems on a single genus. What an amazing breakthrough.
Of course it is a model, stupid me. Biological modelers…

izen
February 21, 2014 8:03 am

@- Curious George
“We can now model an evolution of ecosystems on a single genus. What an amazing breakthrough.”
It is worse than that, they are modelling a highly diverse genus on the basis of ten similar species within it.
Just because the physiological constraints are common to the whole genus.

Jimbo
February 21, 2014 8:05 am

UK butterflies are threatened by global warming.

BBC – 16 September 2013
Hot summer helps boost butterflies
…………
The sustained warm weather over the summer provided “perfect” conditions for a boom in butterflies and day-flying moths according to experts.
“Put simply, butterflies are cold-blooded creatures that rely on the warmth of the sun in order to be active,” said Butterfly Conservation’s survey manager Richard Fox.
“The hot summer this year meant that some butterfly species, which were in their early life cycle stages when the heat wave began were able to capitalise on it giving rise to high numbers of adults during the count in late July and early August.”…..
http://www.bbc.co.uk/nature/24079279

Pamela Gray
February 21, 2014 8:10 am

Go Jimbo!!!! ROTFLMAO!!! Did you get your big fat oil check in the mail yet for doing all that work reviewing the literature? You should call them if you haven’t gotten it yet. I am sure they must have put it in the mail by now.

Jimbo
February 21, 2014 8:15 am

Why plan to kill fruit flies with spraying when climate change will kill them anyway? OK it’s a different fruit fly but the article above does mention insects in general towards the end.

IPCC TAR – Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
12.5.7. Pests and Diseases
Cropping, horticulture, and forestry in Australia and New Zealand are vulnerable to invasion by new pests and pathogens for which there are no local biological controls (Sutherst et al., 1996; Ministry for the Environment, 1997). The likelihood that such pests and pathogens—particularly those of tropical or semi-tropical origin—will become established, once introduced to New Zealand, may increase with climate warming.
———
…..The vulnerability of horticultural industries in Australia to the Queensland fruit fly Bactrocera (Dacus) tryoni under climate change was examined by Sutherst et al. (2000). Vulnerability was defined in terms of sensitivity and adaptation options. Regional estimates of fruit fly density, derived with the CLIMEX model, were fed into an economic model that took account of the costs of damage, management, regulation, and research. Sensitivity analyses were used to estimate potential future costs under climate change by recalculating costs with increases in temperature of 0.5, 1.0, and 2°C, assuming that the fruit fly will occur only in horticulture where there is sufficient rainfall or irrigation to allow the crop to grow. The most affected areas were the high-altitude apple-growing areas of southern Queensland and NSW and orange-growing areas in the Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area. Apples and pears in southern and central NSW also were affected. A belt from southern NSW across northern Victoria and into South Australia appeared to be the most vulnerable.
Adaptation options were investigated by considering, first, their sustainability under present conditions and, second, their robustness under climate variability and climate change. Bait spraying is ranked as the most sustainable, robust, and hence most promising adaptation option in boh the endemic and fruit fly exclusion zones, but it causes some public concern. The sterile insect technique is particularly safe, but there were concerns about costs, particularly with large infestations. Exclusion is a highly effective approach for minimizing the number of outbreaks of Queensland fruit fly in fly-free areas, although it is vulnerable to political pressure in relation to tourism. These three techniques have been given the highest priority…..
http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg2/index.php?idp=477

Robert W Turner
February 21, 2014 8:16 am

Another Global Warming study that directly contradicts other studies published in the same year. Isn’t an increase in “extreme” cold snaps now part of the meme?!?! We need to hold an emergency global warming meeting at Gore’s mansion to get everybody on the same page.

Tim Clark
February 21, 2014 8:35 am

I’d like to send the authors a list of the insect species I would prefer be extinct, but I don’t have the time for such a long list.

outtheback
February 21, 2014 9:28 am

In September 2012 a similar study from the same Monash University and Danish researchers, no institute specified, appeared here.
It does not seem to be the same study as they studied 100 fruit fly species from around the world, as compared to 10 from Australia, to come up with the same model findings. GIGO.
While neither study tells us how long they took to come up with their conclusions, or when they actually started, I can not escape the thought that the earlier reported one was already on the way when the smaller one reported here was started.
Why was that second one started to study, seemingly, the same criteria. If I would be an Australian or Danish taxpayer I would demand my money back.

richard
February 21, 2014 9:31 am

British Bees dying off due to climate change – Daily Planet Media
“In this piece, author Shawn Regan, a research fellow at the Property and Environment Research Center in Bozeman, Montana drops a data bombshell from a USDA report — bee colonies are just fine
The graph (below) clearly indicates that there has been no collapse”
http://acsh.org/2014/02/bee-bee-behind-bee-colony-collapse-one/

Jimbo
February 21, 2014 10:08 am

izen says:
February 21, 2014 at 6:34 am
…………..
the present rise in sea level, atmospheric humidity and temperature also exceed the rate experience for the whole of human civilisation when the holocene has otherwise been uncharacteristically stable in its climate for over 8000 years. A stability that may well explain the rise of human civilisation based on intensive collaborative agriculture.
……..sciencemag.org/content/339/6124/1198.abstract

It’s a good thing you kept to the holocene.

Abstract
Richard B. Alley
Ice-core evidence of abrupt climate changes
…..As the world slid into and out of the last ice age, the general cooling and warming trends were punctuated by abrupt changes. Climate shifts up to half as large as the entire difference between ice age and modern conditions occurred over hemispheric or broader regions in mere years to decades…….
http://www.pnas.org/content/97/4/1331.full
—————–
Abstract
Pierre Deschamps et al
…Our results, based on corals drilled offshore from Tahiti during Integrated Ocean Drilling Project Expedition 310, reveal that the increase in sea level at Tahiti was between 12 and 22 metres, with a most probable value between 14 and 18 metres, establishing a significant meltwater contribution from the Southern Hemisphere. This implies that the rate of eustatic sea-level rise exceeded 40 millimetres per year during MWP-1A….
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v483/n7391/full/nature10902.html
—————–
Abstract
Reef drowning during the last deglaciation: Evidence for catastrophic sea-level rise and ice-sheet collapse
Elevations and ages of drowned Acropora palmata reefs from the Caribbean-Atlantic region document three catastrophic, metre-scale sea-level-rise events during the lastde glaciation…..
[paper]
…. Such drowning eventsmust have been truly catastrophic, involv-ing—to our knowledge—the fastest rates of glacio-eustatic sea-level rise yet reported…..The exact duration of the CREs is unknown but, given that the mini-mum rate of sea-level rise was >45 mm/yr, the duration of the 14.2 ka event must have been…..
http://www.academia.edu/200254/Reef_drowning_during_the_last_deglaciation_Evidence_for_catastrophic_sea-level_rise_and_ice-sheet_collapse

Jimbo
February 21, 2014 10:12 am

Read this too izen

Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises 2002
Executive Summary
Recent scientific evidence shows that major and widespread climate changes have occurred with startling speed. For example, roughly half the north Atlantic warming since the last ice age was achieved in only a decade, and it was accompanied by significant climatic changes across most of the globe. Similar events, including local warmings as large as 16°C, occurred repeatedly during the slide into and climb out of the last ice age.
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=10136&page=1

“Multiple, Intense, Abrupt Late Pleistocene Warming And Cooling: Implications For Understanding The Cause Of Global Climate Change”
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/02/multiple-intense-abrupt-late-pleisitocene-warming-and-cooling-implications-for-understanding-the-cause-of-global-climate-change/

February 21, 2014 10:17 am

“Climate change will result in fewer cold days and nights,
Tell that to the people who live through the winter of 2013-2014.
and thus allow species to move toward higher latitudes.
And elevations.
However climate change also leads to a higher incidence to extremely hot days and our model therefore predicts that the distribution of these species will be reduced to less than half their present distribution”
I confess I didn’t expect to see them admit that.
But I guess it is par the for course. Any change to distributions, north-south, bigger, smaller, is worth publication, even from a model of extreme weather.

george e. smith
February 21, 2014 11:48 am

Well in the USA they say that the Eastern Elk have gone extinct. Apparently the only thing bigger than an ant that has; except nobody has seen that Woody wood pecker in the swamp for a while.
Well come out to California, if you want to see an Eastern Elk; we have plenty of them. They don’t go back East any more, because it is too hard to cross all the roads, because of traffic.
Come to think of it, you can see Eastern Elk down in New Zealand; try asking for Wapiti though, or else they won’t know what you are talking about. They are about as extinct as the San Francisco Bay Coyote, which eats Clapper Rails. I have all kinds of San Francisco Bay Coyotes hanging out, down by my house, south of Fresno.

henrythethird
February 21, 2014 11:51 am

Just a quick look at Wiki told me everything I needed to know about their “study”:
“…Drosophila are found all around the world, with more species in the tropical regions. They can be found in deserts, tropical rainforest, cities, swamps, and alpine zones. Some northern species hibernate…”
Sounds like they’re adapting quite well to extreme temperatures.
and this gem:
“…The genus Drosophila as currently defined…contains 1,450 described species…”
So they’ll need more money to check out how well the other 1,440 species react. Maybe they need to look at the hibernating species – after the record snow and cold weather lets up…