Another modeled result, extrapolated all the way from 10 common fruit fly species to everything else in the insect world.
Extreme weather caused by climate change in the coming decades is likely to have profound implications for distributions of insects and other invertebrates. This is suggested by a new study of insects in tropical and temperate regions of Australia.
As climate change is progressing, the temperature of our planet increases. This is particularly important for the large group of animals that are cold-blooded (ectothermic), including insects. Their body temperature is ultimately determined by the ambient temperature, and the same therefore applies to the speed and efficiency of their vital biological processes.
- Fruit flies have been the model for a study that has shown how climate change may affect insect distribution in the future. (Photo: Ary A. Hoffmann)
But is it changes in average temperature or frequency of extreme temperature conditions that have the greatest impact on species distribution? This was the questions that a group of Danish and Australian researchers decided to examine in a number of insect species.
Johannes Overgaard, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Denmark, Michael R. Kearney and Ary A. Hoffmann, Melbourne University, Australia, recently published the results of these studies in the journal Global Change Biology. The results demonstrate that it is especially the extreme temperature events that define the distribution of both tropical and temperate species. Thus climate change affects ectotermic animals primarily because more periods of extreme weather are expected in the future.
Fruit flies were modelled
The researchers examined 10 fruit fly species of the genus Drosophila adapted to tropical and temperate regions of Australia. First they examined the temperatures for which the species can sustain growth and reproduction, and then they found the boundaries of tolerance for hot and cold temperatures.
“This is the first time ever where we have been able to compare the effects of extremes and changes in average conditions in a rigorous manner across a group of species”, mentions Ary Hoffmann.
Based on this knowledge and knowledge of the present distribution of the 10 species they then examined if distribution was correlated to the temperatures required for growth and reproduction or rather limited by their tolerance to extreme temperature conditions.
“The answer was unambiguous: it is the species’ tolerance to very cold or hot days that define their present distribution,” says Johannes Overgaard.
It is therefore the extreme weather events, such as heat waves or extremely cold conditions, which costs the insects their life, not an increase in average temperature.
- Periods of extreme heat and thus drought may be the cause of death for many insects. (Photo: COLOURBOX).
Drastic changes in store
With this information in hand, the researchers could then model how distributions are expected to change if climate change continues for the next 100 years.
Most terrestrial animals experience temperature variation on both daily and seasonal time scale, and they are adapted to these conditions. Thus, for a species to maintain its existence under varying temperature conditions there are two simple conditions that must be met. Firstly, the temperature should occasionally be such that the species can grow and reproduce, and secondly, the temperature must never be so extreme that the population’s survival is threatened.
In temperate climate for example, there are many species which are adapted to endure low temperatures in the winter, and then grow and reproduce in the summer. In warmer climates, the challenge may be just the opposite. Here, the species might endure high temperatures during the dry hot summer, while growth and reproduction mainly occurs during the mild and wet winter period.
The result was discouraging for all 10 species.
“Climate change will result in fewer cold days and nights, and thus allow species to move toward higher latitudes. However climate change also leads to a higher incidence to extremely hot days and our model therefore predicts that the distribution of these species will be reduced to less than half their present distribution”says Johannes Overgaard.
“In fact, our predictions are that some species would disappear entirely in the next few decades, even when they have a fairly wide distribution that currently covers hundreds of kilometers”, adds Ary Hoffmann.
“Although none of the 10 species studied are normally perceived as either harmful or beneficial organisms for human society, the results indicate that distribution of many insect species will be changed dramatically, and it will probably also apply to many of the species that have particular social or commercial importance “, ends Johannes Overgaard.
Source, Aarhus University: http://scitech.au.dk/en/roemer/feb14/ekstremt-vejr-afgoer-insekters-udbredelse/
I’m just going to go away and scream now…
After surviving hundreds of millions of years, Environmental disasters of epoch dimensions, insects are going to be threatened by a little change in climate conditions?!? More BS. The level that passes as scientific research is disappointing. pg
Man-Made Global Warming Hinders Sex Life of Slugs.
Slugs require copious amounts of slimy fluid in the act of sexual relations. Man-Made Global Warming tends to dry out slug bodies, making intercourse more laborious, resulting in fewer interactions. Slug populations have diminished as a result. Please do your part to stop man-made global warming, for Slug’s sake.
Using this study, by extrapolation, it is obvious that Dewey really did win the election in 1948.
A collection of fruit flies, serially affected by global warming……
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/02/20/quote-of-the-week-gore-gets-tipper-er-tippy-er-whatever/
how many care?
The argument appears to be genetic changes occur in insects as a result of random episodes of extreme weather, what ever that might be. So then it should present no problem at all to identify in the laboratory those genes that are modified by controlled environments pushed to +/- extreme conditions at carefully contrived intervals. The only other thing to determine is what is the rate and sign of weather extremes in a specific region is needed to genetically modify insect genes and then prove that the probability of that happening is reasonable and probable.
I’m thinking this is going to need a *lot* of funding and that is why the idea is being floated. No coulda/woulda/shoulda crank idea is worth discussing if there isn’t a funding bounty involved.
So 1C or 2C rise in a hundred years is going to have a major impact on flies that live in a range in excess of 20C daily. Agreed PG Sharrow, it’s just nonsense.
These psyentists are either breathtakingly incompetent or breathtakingly dishonest (or maybe both). So insects are no longer capable of adaptation? How many species went extinct during the warming period which ended in 1998. (No, REALLY extinct, not just according to some fraudulent X-Box ‘model’).
Time for the Aarhus jokes again.
http://www.holdet.dk/da/forum/other/threads/229610
http://www.fun4all.dk/humorsiden/aarhus-historier.htm
Anyone who has been on a picnic in Australia knows that all sorts of flies can handle any weather and any temperature condition in the search for food. Anyone who has tried to eradicate cockroaches knows that they will be around millions of years longer than we will. Anyone who has battled with termites knows that the termites will just laugh at climate change as they have already installed air conditioning in their home mounds. This study was carried out by people who should get out more and acquaint themselves with how the Earth and its inhabitants are equipped and work.
Didn’t we just “do this” with tropical fish? And it is not whether the organism is an ectotherm (poikilotherm), but rather whether it is a stenotherm.[http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/02/11/climate-craziness-of-the-week-fish-living-near-the-equator-will-not-thrive-in-the-warmer-oceans-of-the-future/ ]
Stenothermic organisms will die if the environmental temperature falls outside of their tolerance range, by definition. Let’s pretend model future temperatures. if the model temperatures are outside the physiological range that the organism can tolerate for long, they are going to die (forget about possibility of adaptation). Fish or fruit flies, it’s all the same self-fulfilling, catastrophic tautology syllogism.
There must be at least one paper per phylum hawking the same basic self-evident argument for CAGW journals to publish.
Insects barely live long enough to experience weather, let alone climate. So how could they possibly react to climate change.
Dang ! Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, has already reported to us on 17 years and five months, of no significant global warming, It’s getting close to the life cycle of the 18 year cicadas, but they have slept through the whole thing.
They probably won’t notice the change when they come up.
If they were to include the plague of frogs in their models, then the frogs could eat the plague of insects. Problem fixed. Simples.
If insects are so delicate, why is the USDA so touchy about agricultural products brought into the country from tropical climes?
george e. smith says:
February 20, 2014 at 11:00 pm
Insects barely live long enough to experience weather, let alone climate. So how could they possibly react to climate change.
Dang ! Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, has already reported to us on 17 years and five months, of no significant global warming, It’s getting close to the life cycle of the 18 year cicadas, but they have slept through the whole thing.
They probably won’t notice the change when they come up.
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Well George the cics have been incredibly noisy this year. Must have been a protest about the lack of rising temperature! What utter rubbish is that “study”- more snouts in the spondulicks trough.
all i know is CAGW is dangerous to our general well-being. it’s use-by date is long gone:
21 Feb: UK Daily Mail: Tamara Cohen:
Could Met Office have been more wrong? Just before floods, secret report told councils: Winter will be ‘drier than normal’ – especially in West Country!
Worst weather prediction since Michael Fish reassured the nation in October 1987 there was no hurricane on the way
Forecasters said the Somerset Levels and the rest of the West Country would be especially dry
Last night, it was confirmed the UK had instead suffered the wettest winter since records began
The three-month forecast, which a Met Office spokesman conceded was ‘experimental to some extent’, was given to councils, the Environment Agency and other contingency planners to tell them what they could expect from December to the end of this month.
The forecasters – using ‘cutting-edge science’ – assured councils there would be a ‘significant reduction in precipitation compared to average’ for most of the country, adding that there was only a 15 per cent chance the winter would fall into the ‘wettest category’…
The Met Office stopped publishing its long-range forecasts for the public to see in 2010, after its disastrous prediction of a ‘barbeque summer’ in 2009 – which ended in washouts throughout July and August.
The three-month forecasts are now sent only to contingency planners, such as councils, government departments, and insurance companies…
Using the Met Office’s super-computer, which can perform 100trillion calculations a second, experts in November predicted there would be high-pressure weather systems across Britain ‘with a slight signal for below average precipitation’…
A spokesman for the Met Office said: ‘Our short and medium-term forecasts are the ones relied on by emergency responders to help them manage the impacts of severe weather.
‘The Met Office’s five-day forecasts and severe weather warnings have provided excellent guidance throughout this period of exceptionally stormy and wet weather.’
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2564358/Could-Met-Office-wrong-Just-floods-secret-report-told-councils-Winter-drier-normal-especially-West-Country.html
Weasel-word watch: in warmist publications – especially by the BBC – beware of any tricky sentences beginning with “as” or “with”.
Examples: “As temperatures continue to rise” or “With rainfall at record highs” etc.
This is an insidious way to tell lies without actually making a statement that is substantiated or could be actionable / objected to.
“As even more global warming campaigners are being strung up on lampposts…”
10 species? 10 species???! Really? How many species of insects are there? We know flies can been drawn up into the upper atmosphere on currents, freeze, fall, unfreeze and start happily doing what they do. More utter rubbish from Autralian “scientists”. BAH!
Can’t say I ever noticed a shortage of insects when serving Her Majesty in warmer climes,whether desert or rain forest. Neither was there any shortage above the Arctic circle in the Swedish summer. Jim Steele, another scientist who’s made the transition from enthusiastic warmist to considered sceptic on the basis of observation of reality, covers the disappearance of insects from known habitats very well in “Landscapes and Cycles”, thoroughly debunking a paper similar in approach to the subject of this post. I wonder if the Lysenkists even considered his work?
“As climate change is progressing” What on earth does that mean? If you start with a false premise then all else is bunkum!
I thought infestations were carried in from other states…you know…like a certain video I watched recently that showed how certain kinds of mosquitoes are spreading due to sales of used tires. Likewise crossing state lines in certain plants…which is why there are restrictions. Where did these people get their education? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-iZPkQWcRsI
“…our model therefore predicts that the distribution of these species will be reduced to less than half their present distribution.”
We can only hope that something will keep insects in check. Otherwise, as windmills and other “green energy” sources kill off large numbers of birds and bats, insects are likely to flourish.
Insects will go where the food is. Never seen a blowie put off attacking a dead cow by the odd the degree one way or the other. Strike me pink!! are these people serious?
Nurse! Nurse! The screens! (Sir Paul fruit fly and yeast expert)