Nature can, selectively, buffer human-caused global warming, say Israeli, US scientists

Jerusalem, February 2, 2014 – Can naturally occurring processes selectively buffer the full brunt of global warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activities?

Yes, find researchers from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Johns Hopkins University in the US and NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center.

As the globe warms, ocean temperatures rise, leading to increased water vapor escaping into the atmosphere. Water vapor is the most important greenhouse gas, and its impact on climate is amplified in the stratosphere.

In a detailed study, the researchers from the three institutions examined the causes of changes in the temperatures and water vapor in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). The TTL is a critical region of our atmosphere with characteristics of both the troposphere below and the stratosphere above.

The TTL can have significant influences on both atmospheric chemistry and climate, as its temperature determines how much water vapor can enter the stratosphere. Therefore, understanding any changes in the temperature of the TTL and what might be causing them is an important scientific question of significant societal relevance, say the researchers.

The Israeli and US scientists used measurements from satellite observations and output from chemistry-climate models to understand recent temperature trends in the TTL. Temperature measurements show where significant changes have taken place since 1979.

The satellite observations have shown that warming of the tropical Indian Ocean and tropical Western Pacific Ocean – with resulting increased precipitation and water vapor there — causes the opposite effect of cooling in the TTL region above the warming sea surface. Once the TTL cools, less water vapor is present in the TTL and also above in the stratosphere,

Since water vapor is a very strong greenhouse gas, this effect leads to a negative feedback on climate change. That is, the increase in water vapor due to enhanced evaporation from the warming oceans is confined to the near- surface area, while the stratosphere becomes drier. Hence, this effect may actually slightly weaken the more dire forecasted aspects of an increasing warming of our climate, the scientists say.

###

The researchers are Dr. Chaim Garfinkel of the Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences at the Hebrew University and formerly of Johns Hopkins University, Dr. D. W. Waugh and Dr. L. Wang of Johns Hopkins, and Dr. L. D. Oman and Dr. M. M. Hurwitz of the Goddard Space Flight Center. Their findings have been published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, and the research was also highlighted in Nature Climate Change.

From the The Hebrew University of Jerusalem

UPDATE: The Hockey Schtick adds this perspective

New paper finds negative-feedback cooling from water vapor could almost completely offset warming from CO2

A new paper published in the Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres finds water vapor can act as a negative-feedback cooling effect to significantly counteract anthropogenic global warming.

According to the paper, “The satellite observations have shown that warming of the tropical Indian Ocean and tropical Western Pacific Ocean — with resulting increased precipitation and water vapor there — causes the opposite effect of cooling in the tropical tropopause region above the warming sea surface. Once the tropical tropopause cools, less water vapor is present in the tropical tropopause and also above in the stratosphere,

Since water vapor is a very strong greenhouse gas, this effect leads to a negative feedback on climate change. That is, the increase in water vapor due to enhanced evaporation from the warming oceans is confined to the near- surface area, while the stratosphere becomes drier. Hence, this effect may actually slightly weaken the more dire forecasted aspects of an increasing warming of our climate, the scientists say.”

The paper itself says, “In the lower stratosphere, the changes in water vapor and temperature due to projected future sea surface temperatures are of similar strength to, though slightly weaker than, that due directly to projected future CO2, ozone, and methane,” which would indicate that this negative-feedback cooling effect is almost equivalent to the warming effect of man-made CO2, ozone, and methane and could almost fully offset global warming.

The paper is similar to another recent paper published in Nature Climate Change, finding warming of sea surface temperatures in the Indian and Pacific Ocean ‘warm pool’ is causing less water vapor to enter the top of the troposphere and could cause global cooling from this negative-feedback. The papers add to many others finding water vapor acts as a negative-feedback, not positive as assumed by IPCC climate models. Climate model false assumptions of positive-feedback from water vapor are the entire basis of Mann-made global warming alarm. 

0 0 votes
Article Rating

Discover more from Watts Up With That?

Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

84 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
February 4, 2014 7:24 pm

I found it an interesting paper and actually learned a bit more about the interaction of the troposphere and stratosphere as temperatures change (and had to look up a few things too).
They focused just on the area of the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific in the tropical latitudes in winter (January February and March). In one set of model runs they used the observed SST, greenhouse gases, solar output, sea ice and volcanic emissions from 1960 to 2004 to calculate the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere temperatures. The model results correlated very well with historical observed RSS temperatures.
What they found was that the lower stratosphere temperature cooled over areas of the Indian Ocean 60W and the Western Pacific warm pool 160W where the SSTs had risen and the opposite happened over areas where the SSTs were below the mean. By modeling atmospheric circulation to determine water vapor and ozone levels they concluded that “the lower stratospheric temperature response to rising SSTs is opposed, but only partially, by changes in water vapor”
Their conclusion was that sea surface temperature changes drive the temperature changes in the upper atmosphere in different regions and suggest that “It is therefore of paramount importance that attention be paid to the precise pattern of SST warming in chemistry-ocean-atmosphere simulations.”

February 4, 2014 9:45 pm

William McClenney says:
February 3, 2014 at 11:59 pm
jai mitchell says:
February 3, 2014 at 8:56 pm
————————————–
William McClenney…very nice!!!

R. de Haan
February 5, 2014 6:18 am

Just dump this shit.

Gail Combs
February 5, 2014 11:57 am

I will second what goldminor says:
>>>>>>>>>>>>
William McClenney…very nice!!!
To jai mitchell,
The problem is climate scientists have Green House Gases on the brain and everything looks like a nail because they have that hammer however there is a heck of a lot more going on in climate then just green house gases.
We know the effect of CO2 does not continue in a straight line. link
The problem is the calculated effect of moving from 300 ppm of CO2 to 390 ppm is only 1.4 W/m2 or 1.1 °C increase in temperature and more CO2 will have even less of an effect. CAGW was based on water vapor amplifying the effect but reality does not bare that out. Everyone uses numbers for solar insolation like 428 Wm2 but the actual energy is between 1360.5 Wm2 and 1362 Wm2. That is what hits the earth’s atmosphere and interacts with it.
The variable sun was supposed to be constant but more and more data is coming in showing that while TSI may not vary much, the energy at different wavelengths does and the actual effects are not well know. For example albedo was decreasing and then started increasing around 1997-98 link 1997/1998 was the big El Nino and also the start of solar cycle 23, not a particularly strong cycle link and also Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics Two solar cycles of nonincreasing magnetic flux 23 OCT 2002

Some of the variations that SIM has measured in the last few years do not mesh with what most scientists expected….
…ultraviolet irradiance fell far more than expected between 2004 and 2007 — by ten times as much as the total irradiance did — while irradiance in certain visible and infrared wavelengths surprisingly increased, even as solar activity wound down overall. [end of cycle 23]
The stratosphere absorbs most of the shorter wavelengths of ultraviolet light, but some of the longest ultraviolet rays (UV-A), as well as much of the visible and infrared portions of the spectrum, directly heat Earth’s lower atmosphere… NASA

Meanwhile the climate has switched gears and we are getting more meridional circulation. This brings up the lazy sun==> Δ UV ==> Δ ozone or Δ solar wind ==> BREWER-DOBSON CIRCULATION
In times of low solar activity the upper atmosphere cools ( NASA mentioned the ‘collapse’) and the down welling of cold interacts with the up welling of warm. This interaction enlarges to the point the rotation of the polar vortex to the point it becomes unstable and we get a Polar Express like the USA has been experiencing. MUCH better explanations: Sunspots, the QBO, and the Stratosphere in the North Polar Region – 20 Years later
Also:

…In a winter cyclone the primary driver of the dynamics is the baroclinic instability in the winter circulation, with the storm extracting vorticity from the latitudinal shear in the circulation, and converting it to the vorticity of the cyclone. The effective diabatic heating associated with precipitation and reduced cooling of entrained air amounts to an increase in potential vorticity and uplift in the air mass, and is likely to concentrate the vorticity near the cyclone center. In addition, by enhancing the feedback processes inherent in the baroclinic instability, it can increase the overall vorticity of the cyclone. It has been demonstrated analytically by van Delden [1989] and from numerical storm simulations by Zimmerman et al. [1989] and Mallet et al. (1999) that a positive feedback exists between the storm dynamical configuration and the diabatic processes. Thus precipitation changes explain the many reported examples of correlations of the vorticity area index (VAI) with GCR flux change and Jz reviewed by Tinsley [2000]….
http://www.utdallas.edu/physics/pdf/Atmos_060302.pdf

Then move down to the Antarctic. If you look at this Sea Surface Temperature map it has a good image of the tongue of cold water from the Antarctic Circumpolar Current just before Drake Passage, headed up the coast of South America to Galapagos.
fhhaynie, a retired EPA scientist says

If I were asked to pick a single point on earth that most likely has the greatest effect on global weather and climate, it would be 0 and 90W (Galapagos). This is where El-nino winds, the deep sea Cromwell current, the Panama current, and the Humbolt current meet. These flows are not constant and each has different cycles and those cycles are not constant. Cycles on cycles create extremes in weather and climate. These extremes have an effect globally. I suspect these cycles are also controlling our observed atmospheric concentration of CO2. CO2 is very likely a lagging indicator and not a cause of climate change.

So what happens in Drake Passage if the sea ice continues to expand in the Antarctic? Feb SH Sea Ice Graph The westerlies, the prevailing winds between 30°S and 60°S, in the Southern Hemisphere have been observed to have intensified significantly over the past decades. (from 2008) Will more ice cause more water to be headed up the coast of South America as the current is driven into the restriction of Drake Passage?
Research on Drakes Passage today: http://climate.gmu.edu/research/drake.php

…The experiments address a fundamental question of how the circulation of the ocean works. Since the global overturning circulation is apparently sensitive to wind even in regions where the ocean has eastern and western boundaries, it may be influenced by wind outside the Drake Passage latitudes. However, our results indicate that the unique geometry of the Drake Passage latitudes does make the global circulation – and perhaps the climate of the North Atlantic – especially sensitive to wind there.

(Cold Antarctic water runs up the coast of Africa too.)

“The polar wind is mainly varying with solar UV flux, since it controls the ionization rate and photoelectron production in the ionosphere. Therefore the polar wind is sometimes referred to as photothermal outflow (Moore and Horwitz, 2007). The auroral outflows, on the other hand, are enhanced during active times, when the solar wind-ionospheric coupling is strong. Since the
solar wind energy input shows larger variability than the solar radiation, the auroral wind is much more variable than the polar wind. Nsumei et al. (2008) have shown that solar illumination controls the plasma density over the polar caps mainly at low altitudes (below 2.5 RE), whereas it is controlled by the geomagnetic activity at higher altitudes (above 4 RE).”
http://uu.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:210978/FULLTEXT01

Climate Scientists have been so focused on CO2 (and their grant money) that very little has been done to research the oceans and the sun. The next coming decades with a lazy sun will hopefully wake scientists up and a lot of good research will get done. And I hope like heck William McClenney doesn’t get proved right during that time!

jai mitchell
February 5, 2014 1:47 pm

Gail Combs,
you said, “CAGW was based on water vapor amplifying the effect but reality does not bare that out.”
You will simply need a whole lot more proof than you have offered to show that this graph is actually incorrect, I mean, you know that we can actually measure the wavelength of the longwave light that is leaving the planet to a very fine degree right?
The fact is that atmospheric water vapor is increasing. This is a positive feedback.
your assertion that water vapor will not act as a greenhouse gas is unscientific and seems like magical thinking.
Don’t believe me?
compare this satellite measurement of radiation spectrum leaving the earth’s atmosphere
to dr. roy spencer’s same image
see the part where the water vapor is absorbing the radiation? see how much more it is than CO2?
this shows that water vapor has a higher GHG potential than CO2 BY DIRECT MEASUREMENT.

February 5, 2014 8:10 pm

They’re not altering the positive feedback mechanism, but rather the way the global system reacts, redirecting the moisture to the Indian Ocean monsoon, etc., at low levels, opening the TTL “window” to OLR.

jai mitchell
February 5, 2014 9:29 pm

Brian,
the difference in relative humidity in the stratosphere is minor compared to the change in relative humidity in the troposphere. Also this is a response to the warming of the region, it doesn’t follow that it then cools back down. Only that the stratosphere gets cooler. We observe this already.

John Francis
February 5, 2014 11:31 pm

OK, I have had enough. I don’t care who you are, what qualifications you have, what research you have done, what theories you have developed, or even if you can-unlike many-actually manipulate an Excel spreadsheet, it is clear to this engineer that no-one understands or can model the weather or climate. To suggest that you KNOW for sure that CO2 is more effective in changing the climate than ocean currents, jetstreams, solar effects, ocean oscillations, albedo, clouds, land-use, the water cycle, and many, many more, tells me that you are an advocate and a shill, not a scientist. For Pete’s sake, shut up!
Sorry, got carried away there, but you all know how I feel!

jai mitchell
February 6, 2014 2:17 pm

[snip – tobacco has no place here, nor does theological discussions – mod]