By Paul Homewood
There was an interesting report in last Sunday’s Telegraph about recent flooding in the Somerset Levels. I’ll not reprint the whole thing, but would certainly recommend reading it.
The essence of the article is that the flooding there, which began late last month and peaked on 1st January, are the worst in living memory.
Now, anyone familiar with this part of England will know that the Levels are notorious for winter flooding, and have been since time immemorial. Indeed, according to Wikipedia, one explanation for the county of Somerset’s name is that, in prehistory, because of winter flooding people restricted their use of the Levels to the summer, leading to a derivation from Sumorsaete, meaning land of the summer people.
And, of course, King Alfred hid away from the Vikings at Athelney, in the middle of the Levels, protected by impenetrable swamps.
Consequently, when someone says “the worst in living memory”, I tend to get the pinch of salt ready! But when a farmer, whose house is flooded for the second time in just over a year, tells us that it had not been flooded for the previous 88 years, you have to treat the matter seriously. To quote the Telegraph:
For the moment, he and his partner, Linda, are living upstairs at Horsey Farm, because the ground floor of the building has been flooded.
“The carpets have gone, the floorboards will have to come up, the plaster will have to come off the walls, we will have to start all over again,” he says. They only returned to the property nine weeks ago, having been out of it since a similar flood in November 2012.
“Before that the house had not been flooded for 88 years, that’s the point,” he says. “People lived here for centuries without it being as bad as this. Something is definitely going wrong. The water levels have gone right up.”
So, is this all evidence that climate change is making floods worse, as many would have us believe? Let’s take a look at the Met Office data. I have outlined in red the rough area we are looking at .
As can be seen, although December rainfall was higher than average, it was not abnormally so. I have also included the November map, to show that that month was around or below average for Somerset, so there is no evidence of a long term build up of water.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/anomacts
We can also look at the December rainfall trends for SW England & S Wales. The area covered by this region is shown below. Although this region covers a wider range than just Somerset, a look at the above December map indicates that much of the region was wetter than the part we are concerned with. In other words, the regional stats probably overestimate the rainfall anomaly for Somerset.
Figure 1
The graph makes clear that last month’s rainfall was not unusual in any way. Since 1910, it ranks as the 19th wettest, in other words a once every 5 year event. The rain in December does not even compare with years such as 1934, when 307mm was recorded. In fact, it is noticeable that all of the really wet Decembers occurred prior to 1970.
Taking all months of the year, rather than just December, there have been 70 months with higher rainfall than December 2013. On average, therefore, the region would expect to see rainfall amounts as high as, or higher than, last month at some stage of the year every year or two.
We can also look at the stats for the local station of Yeovilton, about 20 miles to the south of the Levels, rather than the region as a whole.
The Met Office data, which runs back to 1964, shows 121mm rainfall for December 2013. However, the Telegraph article mentions that torrential rain on New Year’s Day made the floods worse, and a check with Weather Underground shows 18mm that day, so I have added that onto the Met Office’s December figure. (It is also worth pointing out that since 1st January, rainfall amounts have been close to average for January).
The resulting 139mm would represent the 14th wettest month since 1964, so about a once in three year occurrence. Given the evidence in Figure 1, it seems likely that many more such months would have occurred prior to 1964.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/yeoviltondata.txt
Figure 2
It is utterly clear that there has been nothing unusual about levels of rainfall, so what has been going on in Somerset? This is where the locals in Muchelney make their views plain.
There is, however, one awkward challenge that has to be made to the villagers. The Somerset Levels were built to flood. The name of the village derives from the Saxon for “great island”. If people choose to live on a historic floodplain, how can they possibly complain when it floods?
“Yes, the fields are meant to flood, but it is too much now,” says Maxine Grice, a long-time resident of Muchelney. “It comes too quickly and it stays too long. It used to happen every 10 years and it was never this deep. People have been flooded lately who never were before. It’s because the rivers haven’t been dredged over the last 20 years. They have silted up.”
Others villagers agree this is why the flood levels have risen catastrophically. They blame the Environment Agency for neglecting the local rivers, which have now silted up so much that they can only carry a third of the water they used to. The theory is that this leaves the rivers unable to cope in the rain when extra water is also sent from Taunton and Bridgwater, from where it is pumped away to protect new homes built on former floodplains.
“We are being sacrificed in order to help those towns,” says Ms Wilson-Ward. “Yes, we are a small village but we are still taxpayers, we still need to protect our houses and our businesses like everyone else. The Environment Agency need to pull their fingers out, apply for whatever money they need, start dredging, get people down here and start fixing things.”
Final Thoughts
Similar complaints have been raised many times in recent years, but this case gives us real evidence that such concerns are justified.
Whilst Somerset is only one part of the country, and the performance of the Environment Agency may be better elsewhere, it is important that, if flooding problems are to be resolved, the actual causes are identified, so they can be acted on.
It really does not help the inhabitants of Muchelney, or the thousands of others affected by floods, when David Cameron, Corinne Le Quere, Chris Smith and the rest blame them on climate change, and think that building lots of wind farms will make things better.
Perhaps some of the money spent fighting climate change should be diverted to repairing our neglected flood defences and drainage systems.
Unfortunately, it is sometimes easier hiding behind excuses than taking the responsibility to do something about a problem. And it is also very convenient when those excuses support a political agenda.
Update
Christopher Booker, who lives in Somerset, made similar comments about the failure of the Environment Agency to dredge the rivers there. He also suggests there is a desire amongst many at the Agency to see the Levels return to the swampy wilderness that existed prior to the 17thC, when they were drained
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Previously posted, but if you are interested in first-person contemporary reports of weather, the Gutenburg Press has a few places, for instance, for Norfolk:
http://www.gutenberg.org/files/36206/36206-h/36206-h.htm
July 20, 1879:
20.—Owing to a heavy and continuous downpour of rain and a strong wind blowing from the north-west, the waters of the Yare were “backed up,” overflowed the banks of the river, and submerged many thousand acres of marshes between Norwich and Yarmouth. Most of the hay crop in Norfolk was ruined by the wet weather.
One google provides evidence this is NOT new.
http://www.british-history.ac.uk/report.aspx?compid=66485
My parents grew up in a similar village in Holland that for some bizarre reason was nicknamed ” the island”
go figure
so timed of this “new weather/climate” crap
reminds me of Avril Lavigne lyrics in “complicated”
Chill out, what you yellin’ for?
Lay back, it’s all been done before
And if you could only let it be
You will see…
ALL BEEN DONE BEFORE!
Jo Beaumont
i thought that this might be the case. unfortunately the EA have history against them. The ecology of the Somerset Levels was fine when the locals held the power of their own destinies. The present day continuation and increasing severity of flooding shows that the EA case is a false one and is overseeing an ecology that needs attention by those who live there not academics with their brains in the vacuum of space.
I know how about the EA do to London what they are doing to other parts of the country, I’m sure the population and politicos would not mind living and working from a small group of islands in a massive swampy area that would be the Thames valley.
Many farmers used to dredge the ditches and streams on their land but now don’t because under rules from the EA(EU) all that used to be dug out and left on the banks to help build them up and allow all the beasties to crawl back to the water has to be sent to licensed land fill as “harmful waste”. So work that took a few days with machinery on the farm and was controlled on the farm now takes many weeks of prep (paperwork) and needs transport (specialist) and the risk of prosecution if an I is not dotted or a T crossed.
James Bull
Last night the BBC interviewed an official from the EA, actually overlooking the Somerset floods. This man claimed that dredging was not any use because it would not prevent the floods happening. That dredging only increased river capacity a little so would not help.
This man is an idiot, he failed to mention that dredging’s intention is to increase river flow thus greatly increasing a river’s capacity to drain an area. The UK EA know nothing if this moron is an example of their expertize.
It is approximated that 1000 people, out of a population of almost 1000,000, own the majority of land in Somerset. These people are wealthy land owners, including local and national polititians and they are to blame for the flooding in Somerset as a result of the intensive farming methods used on the land. They over graze the land, causing the soil to compact so no water can drain away. They over produce crops on the land, heedlessly ploughing and causing massive quantities of soil to run off into the river systems. They fail to manage the ditch systems on their land causing blockages and backlogs which result in localised flooding after periods of heavy rain.
These landowners, the 1000 people, are those who now lobby the councils and governments to make changes, to dredge the ditches and rivers which are already over managed so as to save them from having to into their own pockets.
For any rainfall event, the majority of rain which falls down to inundate the land should be soaked away through the soil. We only ever see a fraction of the rainfall flowing into the rivers because most of it (should) simply soak away. The major issue facing the UK at present is that the majority of farmland is being so intensively farmed that the soil is compacted to a solid layer. Water will sit on top of the fields but if you dig down a ft or two you will find dry earth. Why? Because the water simply is not draining away.
The landowners are right in one sense; more needs to be done to manage flooding, but it is those 1000 people who own and manage the land that need to make the changes. They need to reduce the amount of cattle grazed per hectare and avoid using fields which are sodden so as to minimize compaction on that land. They need to allow trees to grow, particularly in areas which suffer from flooding which will help to break up the soil. They need to leave buffer strips around ditches or rivers where ploughing or grazing does not occur so as to ensure that some areas are left to drain away the excess water.
Is any of that so hard? I doubt it but it will result in diminished fiscal returns on the land. As such it is apparently easier to pass the buck and blame the government, the Environment Agency or anyone else foolish enough to get in their way so they can avoid taking responsibility for the devestation they are causing to their local communities.
If your house has flooded and you want someone to blame; look to your local farmer rather than blaming a faceless organisation. They are the ones who can actually do something about it and prevent it from happening again.
Some interesting reading and lots of scape goats. The Environment Agency are responsible and there management of the levels and allowance of upstream construction make them responsible.
Its a fact that teams of surveyors have been out on the levels in the past years repeatedly surveying river cross sections so that the E.A can monitor silting. They have also done this with sonar boats in the deeper water near Bridgwater. The E.A trialed hydro-dynamic dredging around 2007 but it was not successful (can you imagine organising a trial in the E.A – doomed to failure).
In the olden days the pumping houses would start pumping water off the Somerset Levels when they saw heavy rain was coming. They could drain down the moor and pump into the river before it filled to allow a flooding buffer……this is no longer done/allowed.
The Environment Agency does not want to stump up the money to dredge the main channels. It would not cause flooding downstream because……it is the Bristol Channel.
Thank you Paul Homewood and WUWT!
After all this time busy elsewhere, I am overjoyed to find WUWT where I never thought to see it. You are far more on the ball, regarding our local flooding fiasco, than anybody here.
I have lived around the Somerset Levels for yonks – some 40 years. Over the last few 3-4 years I’ve seen the flooding gradually getting worse. There is a simple indicator – Bog Grass aka Rushes. They only appear in fields after significant flooding, and it takes some time for the telltale tufts to mature. Familiar fields that never had any tufts, developed a few the first wet winter which lasted through the summer – one remembers. Each winter/spring, the quantity of bog grass and number of infested fields has been growing.
I hoped the local Transition Towns might be on the case, they are after all supposed to be concerned about environmental disasters. I googled “transition network culture somerset levels flooding” but it was WUWT which not only came top of the search but actually answered my questions thoroughly and competently.
I understand again why I had to stop reading WUWT completely. It took too much of my time, and in the end I needed badly to catch up on other facets of Life. But oh my God, how much precious stuff I learned here. And still apply, in my work.
The Silt build up is caused by people living and farming the levels!
Please remember that Glastonbury used to be used to be just islands.
Those who choose to live on the flood plan new there homes and properties would get damaged when it flooded yet they still choose to believe that it won’t happen to them (and now its happened several times now!)
***************************** Now on to the supportive bit *******************************************
This is a bad flood, I have never know the road to aller having been closed this long, I normally travel along this road to Yeovil alot but been forced to get stuck behind slow drivers crossing the hills between street and Somerton or get stuck behind crash’s on the Tauton to Illminster road!
A Bryant:
In your post at January 30, 2014 at 10:20 am you say
although I agree with the message of your post, I think your point I have quoted needs clarification.
I addressed this on another WUWT thread and I copy that post to here to save you needing to find it.
Richard
richardscourtney says:
January 27, 2014 at 10:56 am
Friends:
I write to provide a reminder – especially to non-Brits – of the clear message which needs to be presented to politicians and is provided by the flooding of the Somerset Levels.
The Levels were a swamp that was completely flooded most of the year except for a few, small islands. Indeed, it was by hiding in the levels that Alfred the Great ended up burning the cakes because searching the reed-covered marsh was impossible.
The Napoleonic Wars provided a need for additional grain and one response was to drain the Levels to obtain additional farmland. This conversion of the swamp to agricultural land was conducted in the period 1770 to 1833, and this paper describes it.
The drainage and water management are relatively recent and entirely man-made. The Levels will return to being a flooded swamp in the absence of proper maintenance and operation of the drainage and water management. So, the people who live on the levels KNOW they will be flooded if that proper maintenance and operation ceases. And they know the necessary dredging of the watercourses has been stopped.
Arguments about climate change and conservation are rejected by people who know their homes will be destroyed unless the dredging is conducted to ensure operation of the man-made drainage.
People who are faced with real threats to their homes and lives will reject politicians who use political scares as an excuse to ignore the real threats.
Richard