Yesterday, my local reservoir, Lake Oroville, made the front page of Drudge. The photo below shows the Highway 162 suspension bridge and the Bidwell Marina, which is almost in the center of the lake now. The last time I was there at this very spot in September, boat launch ramps were still operable. From what I hear now, they are past the asphalt and down to mud for anyone that dares to try.
Below are two photos from the NASA MODIS imaging system that show California from the Los Angeles area north to the Oregon border. One if from January 13th, 2013, and the other is from January 14th, 2014.
The lack of snowpack in the northern Sierra Nevada is quite significant and the visual difference between years is stunning.
On Thursday, I was on Shasta Lake north of Redding, CA and took this photo of the Interstate 5 bridge crossing the reservoir. While you can’t see it in this photo, there still is water under the bridge. Shasta is the largest reservoir in California, and is down from its historical average by nearly half.
Of course, this is hardly new, low water levels have been seen on this lake before, such as in September 2005:
What is new is that the lake level is so low in winter, there’s no appreciable inflow, it continues to drop, AND there’s little snow-pack to replenish it.The US drought monitor shows the current situation:
![20140114_usdm_home[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/20140114_usdm_home1.png?quality=75)
Plus, California population has increased dramatically while water storage has not. That’s a testament to poor planning and the hands of environmentalists and their campaigns to stop new water storage systems. Some are saying this drought is in “uncharted territory”.
“Uncharted territory” has been a phrase spoken by many during recent water conversations. The population in California has doubled since 1977, many more permanent crops have been planted and more refuges established.
Source: http://www.chicoer.com/news/ci_24939467/governors-drought-declaration-leaves-no-doubt-butte-county
And the cause of this? Certainly not “global warming” though I’m sure the activist idiots will use every trick in the book to try to create a linkage. The cause is a the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and a weak to neutral and persistent La Niña pattern that some are calling “La Nada”. Bob Tisdale has a good summary on the PDO situation and how it is also related to “the pause” in global warming. The ocean rules the climate system.
The paper Chylek et al describes the linkage of ocean cycles to climate of the southwestern USA.
In the graph below, you can see that pattern has been in place since the strong La Niña of 2010. In 1997/98 when the huge El Niño occurred, California had so much water that dams were full and fears of flooding abounded. You can also see the long stretch of drought in the mid to late 1970’s reflected in this graph.
Yesterday, Governor Brown declared a drought emergency, which is probably a bit too late. He held up this graph showing precipitation by water year. In California, a water year is from July 1st to June 30th.
Here’s the source of data for that graph, showing that Governor Brown’s graph doesn’t quite tell the entire story since the peaks are muted and only the filtered values are used. His graph also only goes back to 1970. The next closest dry year was 1898, so the idea that this is “uncharted territory” for California is an accurate statement.
Here is the PR from the Governor’s office yesterday:
=============================================================
SAN FRANCISCO – With California facing water shortfalls in the driest year in recorded state history, Governor Edmund G. Brown Jr. today proclaimed a State of Emergency and directed state officials to take all necessary actions to prepare for these drought conditions.
“We can’t make it rain, but we can be much better prepared for the terrible consequences that California’s drought now threatens, including dramatically less water for our farms and communities and increased fires in both urban and rural areas,” said Governor Brown. “I’ve declared this emergency and I’m calling all Californians to conserve water in every way possible.”
In the State of Emergency declaration, Governor Brown directed state officials to assist farmers and communities that are economically impacted by dry conditions and to ensure the state can respond if Californians face drinking water shortages. The Governor also directed state agencies to use less water and hire more firefighters and initiated a greatly expanded water conservation public awareness campaign (details at saveourh2o.org).
In addition, the proclamation gives state water officials more flexibility to manage supply throughout California under drought conditions.
State water officials say that California’s river and reservoirs are below their record lows. Manual and electronic readings record the snowpack’s statewide water content at about 20 percent of normal average for this time of year.
The Governor’s drought State of Emergency follows a series of actions the administration has taken to ensure that California is prepared for record dry conditions. In May 2013, Governor Brown issued an Executive Order to direct state water officials to expedite the review and processing of voluntary transfers of water and water rights. In December, the Governor formed a Drought Task Force to review expected water allocations, California’s preparedness for water scarcity and whether conditions merit a drought declaration. Earlier this week, the Governor toured the Central Valley and spoke with growers and others impacted by California’s record dry conditions.
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And what is on the horizon? Hopefully an El Niño, which will also get blamed on/connected to “global warming”. if the Nino 3.4 model ensemble is to be believed, then California will likely see a strong precipitation rebound in 2014/2015.
From the WUWT ENSO Reference Page:
![nino34Mon[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/nino34mon1.gif)
UPDATE: This stament from NOAA is relevant. (h/t to Roger Pielke Sr.)
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
800 PM PDT FRI JAN 17 2014
...GOVERNOR JERRY BROWN DECLARES A DROUGHT STATE OF EMERGENCY FOR
CALIFORNIA ON JANUARY 17TH 2014...
...THE USDA HAS DECLARED A DROUGHT DESIGNATION FOR SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY FOR 2014 FOR ELIGIBLE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCERS...
...EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA...
SYNOPSIS...
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA HAVE EXPERIENCED TWO BELOW
AVERAGE RAINFALL SEASONS RESULTING IN A REDUCTION IN RESERVOIR AND
GROUNDWATER LEVELS IN SOME AREAS. THE MUCH DRIER THAN USUAL
VEGETATION FOR MID-WINTER HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A HEIGHTENED WILDFIRE
CONCERN. THESE CONDITIONS WERE ELEVATED TO AN EXTREME DROUGHT
DEPICTION (D3) ON THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAPS WITHIN ORANGE COUNTY
IN MID JANUARY 2014. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR CLASSIFIES DROUGHT
INTO FIVE CATEGORIES OF INCREASING SEVERITY: ABNORMALLY DRY
(D0)...MODERATE DROUGHT (D1)...SEVERE DROUGHT (D2)...EXTREME DROUGHT
(D3)...AND EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4).
PLEASE NOTE THAT NEITHER NOAA NOR THE NWS DECLARES DROUGHTS.
DROUGHTS IN THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA ARE DECLARED BY THE GOVERNOR
THROUGH THE RECOMMENDATION OF THE CALIFORNIA STATE DEPARTMENT OF
WATER RESOURCES AND THE STATE CLIMATOLOGIST. HOWEVER...LOCAL
OFFICIALS CAN DECLARE LOCAL DROUGHT OR WATER EMERGENCIES AT TIMES
WHEN THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA HAS NOT DECLARED AN OFFICIAL DROUGHT.
LOCAL WATER PURVEYORS CAN ALSO IMPLEMENT VOLUNTARY OR MANDATORY
RESTRICTIONS ON WATER USAGE IN RESPONSE TO CURRENT OR FORECAST WATER
SUPPLY CONDITIONS REGARDLESS OF DROUGHT DECLARATIONS. THIS DROUGHT
STATEMENT PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF PERTINENT INFORMATION TO ENHANCE
PUBLIC AWARENESS OF DROUGHT OR ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS.
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
AT THIS TIME...IMPACTS HAVE BEEN LIMITED IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE DUE TO THE AVAILABILITY OF IMPORTED WATER.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION HAS ALLOWED VEGETATION TO DRY TO
CRITICAL LEVELS IN MANY AREAS...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR
WILDFIRES. THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER HAS ALSO REDUCED THE
AVAILABILITY OF RANGE LAND GRASSES FOR LIVESTOCK. WHERE LOCAL WELLS
ARE FED BY RAINFALL AND LOCAL RUNOFF...SOME SHALLOW WELLS MAY BE
GOING DRY OR HAVE ALREADY DRIED UP. IN ADDITION...THE LACK OF
RAINFALL AND RUNOFF THIS WINTER HAS LOWERED THE FLOW IN THE SAN
DIEGO RIVER...RESULTING IN STRESSES ON THE VEGETATION AND
WILDLIFE.
CLIMATE SUMMARY...
ORANGE COUNTY HAS BEEN ONE OF THE DRIEST AREAS IN OUR REGION OVER
THE PAST FEW YEARS. WESTERN REGION CLIMATE CENTER RECORDS FROM THE
SANTA ANA FIRE STATION INDICATE 2013 WAS THE THIRD DRIEST...AND THE
THREE YEAR PERIOD ENDING DECEMBER 2013 WAS THE FIFTH DRIEST. RAINS
HAVE BEEN MORE GENEROUS FARTHER SOUTH IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY WHERE
LINDBERGH FIELD LOGS BOTH 2013 AND THE THREE YEAR PERIOD 2010-2013
AS ONLY THE 20TH DRIEST ON RECORD.
A WELL-DEVELOPED MONSOON IN LATE SUMMER HELPED TO RAISE SEASONAL
RAINFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
PRECIPITATION SUMMARY FOR SELECTED CITIES...
DECEMBER 2013 SINCE JULY 1 2013
REPORTED % OF NORMAL REPORTED % OF NORMAL
NEWPORT BEACH 0.31 17% 0.69 20%
TUSTIN 0.98 41% 1.91 41%
IDYLLWILD 1.47 40% 7.77 80%
RIVERSIDE 0.16 10% 1.15 36%
PALM SPRINGS TRACE 0% 1.26 45%
BIG BEAR LAKE 1.02 33% 5.50 70%
REDLANDS 0.16 10% 2.54 61%
EL MIRAGE 0.03 4% 2.14 101%
BORREGO SPRINGS 0.00 0% 4.35 168%
CAMPO 0.78 34% 5.57 100%
LAKE CUYAMACA 1.71 35% 11.88 99%
LINDBERGH FIELD 0.46 30% 2.24 68%
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF JANUARY
WITH THE LATEST AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODELS HOLDING A STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY IS INDICATING A
BETTER THAN 70% CHANCE OF CONTINUED DRIER AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE
WEATHER.
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
WITH NO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...NO
SIGNIFICANT INCREASES CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREA RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS.
THE LATEST U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK CALLS FOR DROUGHT
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OR INTENSIFY THROUGH MARCH 2014.
NEXT SCHEDULED ISSUANCE DATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY
FEBRUARY 17TH...OR SOONER IF NECESSARY...IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.
&&
RELATED WEBSITES...
GOVERNORS EMERGENCY PROCLAMATION: WWW.GOV.CA.GOV/NEWS.PHP?ID18368.
CALIFORNIA DATA EXCHANGE CENTER: CDEC.WATER.CA.GOV/
CALIFORNIA NEVADA RIVER FORECAST CENTER: WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV/
DROUGHT MONITOR: DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU
U.S. DROUGHT PORTAL: HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV/DROUGHT/
CALIFORNIA DROUGHT PAGE: WATERSUPPLYCONDITIONS.WATER.CA.GOV/
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER: WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO: WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/SGX/
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
DROUGHT MONITOR
NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD
CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES
CALIFORNIA STATE CLIMATOLOGIST
US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS SOUTHERN DISTRICT
QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS...PLEASE REFER ALL QUESTIONS TO
W-SGX.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV.
&&
JAD
END
Now is the time for REAL greens to prove their ideology triumphs rationality by sending contributions to the Sierra Club and NRDC to continue opposition to desalinization plants (held up for decades), opposition to increased reservoir volume (essentially impossible now), increased diversion of the Sacramento River to minnows instead of people, destruction of dams and reservoirs (including the Hetch Hetchy, the largest freshwater source in NCal).
Californians, in their slavish devotion to green at any cost, have created this crisis.
Own it greens.
I remember the drought of 1976 to 1983, The people in Santa Barbara were painting their lawns green. In LA County, we couldn’t water the lawns either. We were encouraged not to flush the toilets after each use [if it’s yellow, it’s mellow. If it’s brown, flush it down – was the disgusting mantra.] People were supposed to take what I think they called “Navy showers” – wet down, turn the water off and soap up – then rinse in the coldest water you could stand.
Thank goodness Queen Elizabeth II showed up in ’83 and brought her English weather with her. It rained buckets! She was being driven around in US Navy buses, to get through flooded roadways. [We wonder if the Queen sat in the front behind the driver – or in the back, away from the peasants]
Anyway, it was BAD. It may seem worse because of added population and water demand, but it probably isn’t really any more severe now. The farmers in the Central Valley may feel the drought more acutely because now days, they have less water and/or more expensive water, because some tree-hugging, idiot judge has ruled that a lot of water has to be set aside to keep some 2″ fish from going thirsty. We all pay more at the grocery store to satisfy the morons of the Sierra Club.
Anthony:
“Plus, California population has increased dramatically while water storage has not. That’s a testament to poor planning and the hands of environmentalists and their campaigns to stop new water storage systems. ”
Exactly. This is precisely the problem and the biggest challenge facing California’s water supply. The precipitation will continue to be up and down from year to year (even if this year is particularly dry). The real issue is the huge increase in population over the last century, coupled with the failure to plan adequate water storage to accommodate it.
Indeed, a couple of years ago when there was an excess of water, water was being let out of the reservoirs when they weren’t even full, due to concerns about safety and lack of upkeep to meet earthquake standards. California needs to upgrade existing facilities and build new dams and storage facilities (or do a massive desalination project) if it hopes to avoid water problems in the future. Conservation is of course also important, but probably won’t be sufficient on its own.
About 5% of California water goes to cities and people. It’s not a population problem. Most of if (by far) goes to farming and out to sea. It is just silly PR gimmickry to have homeowners “conserve” since it is really all about farm use.
Oh, and the ’70s were also sever drought and also quite cold. It snowed in the Central Valley then and I learned to ski at Squaw Valley with hay covering the bald patches on Mountain Run (about 7000 feet…) This drought, to me, a native Californian, says that we are in a cold phase; probably a very cold one, that will last a decade or two.
Gov. Brown opposed both the Auburn Dam on the upper American River and New Melones south of that on the Stanislaus when he was Governor in the 1970s. He also tried to build the Peripheral Canal to pump Sacramento River water to So. California (voted down by ballot initiative). So it’s fitting he now owns the crisis. Unfortunately nobody is pointing out he has been proven completely incompetent in water resource matters.
People say the Auburn dam could not be built due to seismology. The Carter admin stopped the construction after a 5.8 mag earthquake occurred in Oroville in 1975. Brown then fought with Senator Cranston to starve funding in the US Senate. The Oroville quake was caused by the reservoir, an effect that is not unknown. The Auburn dam was redesigned to handle such seismic activity after the quake. Today, the facts about Oroville seismology are even better understood. Since 1975, Oroville has experienced only 3 quakes above 4 magnitude, 1992, 1997 and 2007 none above 4.5. The average Oroville quake is 3.2 since 1975. The quakes occur when the lake is drained in the Summer and Fall, not the peak fill or filling. They occur after large seasonal fluctuations, large fills followed by large drains. The Auburn Dam could have been built safely and effectively but for the objections of Brown, Carter and the environmentalists.
New Melones has about 1M acre feet out of 2.5 potential right now. If anyone remembers, this was the reservoir where Mark Dubois of Friends of the River (FOR) chained himself to a rock in an attempt to stop the lake’s filling. Brown would not allow it to be filled until 1982 when a flood rocketed down from the Sierras and filled it for him, saving many lives and properties in the process.
New Melones also has 300 MW of generating capacity, clean, renewable power. The people of Modesto and Stockton now have drinking water because of it, no thanks to the FOR or Brown.
Auburn was to have 700 MW of clean renewable power capacity. The people of Placer County are in a water crisis because Folsom is almost empty. The City of Sacramento avoids the deep crisis for now only because the Sacramento River is not being pumped to Southern California.
The people of California deserve to know who caused this drought to become a crisis (the guy holding the chart). Let’s hope that Brown, the Friends of the River and President Carter get the credit they deserve.
eo says:
January 18, 2014 at 3:45 pm
Jeff Sim,
May be you could bundle the offer of the unused desalination plants and Tim Flannery with a big discount.
———–
Only if you guys take Al Gore, or no deal.
The Colorado River, where it comes past Blythe, CA is low. Very, very low. Shockingly so when we drove over it last a few days ago.
I live in S.E. North Carolina I have plenty of water, I have a well, my water table is about 1.5 inches from the surface,come take what you need.
One does have to ask the question, as an outsider, as to whether severe water shortage is the norm rather than the exception in parts of California??
So it looks like the ENSO graph updated at
http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/climatic-phenomena-pages/enso/
and it appears to have (again) gone exactly the opposite direction that the model ensembles were pointing. So that second graph labeled: “NINO 3.4 SST Anomalies Forecast” is pretty much useless and has been for most of the past year.
It is worth, at the end, cite Jay Lund (is the Ray B. Krone Professor of Environmental Engineering at UC Davis and director of the university’s Center for Watershed Sciences)
(http://californiawaterblog.com/2013/01/13/climate-change-and-california-water-past-present-and-future/) :
“California is prone to massive climate change. In medieval times, parts of California experienced extreme droughts lasting more than 100 years (Stine 1994).”
“The physical, economic and ecological instability of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta probably poses more risk to California’s water supply than climate warming (Lund et al. 2010).”
“Talk of climate change and water in California is fraught with handwringing and delusions. Much discussion borders on alarmist …”
To parallel Bob Tisdale’s sarcastic comment about drought conditions moving westward , it should be noted that so is the Super Bowl championship. It must be the “stadium wave” effect!
“”””””……goldminor says:
January 19, 2014 at 1:51 am
george e. smith says:
January 18, 2014 at 7:32 pm
————————————
That 8×10 glossy photo showing last year alongside this present year seems to negate your thought. This drought is still in place and by this summer, unless spring rains come strong, they are going to run into problems with those big pumps that send water south, mainly for farming. There is a mandate to keep the Delta waters from from being diluted by too much sea water intrusion. This is related to the fisheries and is a big deal…….””””””
Well dammit; now everybody is reading my thoughts; cut it out ! Or get it right !
I never said Anthony’s pictures aren’t real; and I never actually saw a glossy 8×10 anyway.
Many thanx to Crosspatch, for giggling the Folsom and Camanche nummers. See one’s good and one sucks !
That was what my thought ACTUALLY WAS; Nothing to do with washing SF Bay, and the Pacific Ocean; which I happen to support, for its very real environmental necessity.
But desert golf courses aren’t environmentally necessary.
As E.M. Smith pointed out; the farmers get it dirt cheap. Not against farmers; but as a frequent commuter to S-Cal on highway 5, I can testify, that some of those farmers seem to be able to water very well.
Now the typically don’t water along highway 5, at least close to the road, so they can put up those big signs about a Congressional created dust bowl.
No the dustbowl is just where the farmers want it, so you can see it as you drive highway 5.
But a quarter mile from the road, where nobody ever looks, there is plenty of green agriculture going on where the farmers want it to make money.
And speaking of highway 5, every time it rains in the middle of the Sahara desert, it also rains on the west side of highway 5. Funny thing since I discovered that; I have noticed that there are lots of brand new citrus, and stone fruit, and walnuts or pistachios growing on the west side; used to be absolutely nothing growing there, but pronghorn antelopes, and grass. It’s all done with the magic of irrigation, and of course good soil that can grow grass with no water.
But if you can kick up a racket about the lack of cheap water, and people react, why not.
By the way; the farmers I know, in the Fresno-Visalia central valley area, are very good at water conservation, and intelligent crop rotation, to work with the available water; both snow melt, when available, and pumped well water (ancient snow melt) when it isn’t.
george e. smith says:
January 21, 2014 at 3:55 pm
————————————
The population increase of the state has brought California to a point where any negative deviation from the norm in average rainfall is noticed.
Also, I had just made another comment on a post with the message that a continued drought should probably be expected, and that at this point in time, there is a possibility for no decent rains until next winter. I say that, because I remember what happened between 1975/77.