Yesterday, my local reservoir, Lake Oroville, made the front page of Drudge. The photo below shows the Highway 162 suspension bridge and the Bidwell Marina, which is almost in the center of the lake now. The last time I was there at this very spot in September, boat launch ramps were still operable. From what I hear now, they are past the asphalt and down to mud for anyone that dares to try.
Below are two photos from the NASA MODIS imaging system that show California from the Los Angeles area north to the Oregon border. One if from January 13th, 2013, and the other is from January 14th, 2014.
The lack of snowpack in the northern Sierra Nevada is quite significant and the visual difference between years is stunning.
On Thursday, I was on Shasta Lake north of Redding, CA and took this photo of the Interstate 5 bridge crossing the reservoir. While you can’t see it in this photo, there still is water under the bridge. Shasta is the largest reservoir in California, and is down from its historical average by nearly half.
Of course, this is hardly new, low water levels have been seen on this lake before, such as in September 2005:
What is new is that the lake level is so low in winter, there’s no appreciable inflow, it continues to drop, AND there’s little snow-pack to replenish it.The US drought monitor shows the current situation:
![20140114_usdm_home[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/20140114_usdm_home1.png?quality=75)
Plus, California population has increased dramatically while water storage has not. That’s a testament to poor planning and the hands of environmentalists and their campaigns to stop new water storage systems. Some are saying this drought is in “uncharted territory”.
“Uncharted territory” has been a phrase spoken by many during recent water conversations. The population in California has doubled since 1977, many more permanent crops have been planted and more refuges established.
Source: http://www.chicoer.com/news/ci_24939467/governors-drought-declaration-leaves-no-doubt-butte-county
And the cause of this? Certainly not “global warming” though I’m sure the activist idiots will use every trick in the book to try to create a linkage. The cause is a the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and a weak to neutral and persistent La Niña pattern that some are calling “La Nada”. Bob Tisdale has a good summary on the PDO situation and how it is also related to “the pause” in global warming. The ocean rules the climate system.
The paper Chylek et al describes the linkage of ocean cycles to climate of the southwestern USA.
In the graph below, you can see that pattern has been in place since the strong La Niña of 2010. In 1997/98 when the huge El Niño occurred, California had so much water that dams were full and fears of flooding abounded. You can also see the long stretch of drought in the mid to late 1970’s reflected in this graph.
Yesterday, Governor Brown declared a drought emergency, which is probably a bit too late. He held up this graph showing precipitation by water year. In California, a water year is from July 1st to June 30th.
Here’s the source of data for that graph, showing that Governor Brown’s graph doesn’t quite tell the entire story since the peaks are muted and only the filtered values are used. His graph also only goes back to 1970. The next closest dry year was 1898, so the idea that this is “uncharted territory” for California is an accurate statement.
Here is the PR from the Governor’s office yesterday:
=============================================================
SAN FRANCISCO – With California facing water shortfalls in the driest year in recorded state history, Governor Edmund G. Brown Jr. today proclaimed a State of Emergency and directed state officials to take all necessary actions to prepare for these drought conditions.
“We can’t make it rain, but we can be much better prepared for the terrible consequences that California’s drought now threatens, including dramatically less water for our farms and communities and increased fires in both urban and rural areas,” said Governor Brown. “I’ve declared this emergency and I’m calling all Californians to conserve water in every way possible.”
In the State of Emergency declaration, Governor Brown directed state officials to assist farmers and communities that are economically impacted by dry conditions and to ensure the state can respond if Californians face drinking water shortages. The Governor also directed state agencies to use less water and hire more firefighters and initiated a greatly expanded water conservation public awareness campaign (details at saveourh2o.org).
In addition, the proclamation gives state water officials more flexibility to manage supply throughout California under drought conditions.
State water officials say that California’s river and reservoirs are below their record lows. Manual and electronic readings record the snowpack’s statewide water content at about 20 percent of normal average for this time of year.
The Governor’s drought State of Emergency follows a series of actions the administration has taken to ensure that California is prepared for record dry conditions. In May 2013, Governor Brown issued an Executive Order to direct state water officials to expedite the review and processing of voluntary transfers of water and water rights. In December, the Governor formed a Drought Task Force to review expected water allocations, California’s preparedness for water scarcity and whether conditions merit a drought declaration. Earlier this week, the Governor toured the Central Valley and spoke with growers and others impacted by California’s record dry conditions.
=============================================================
And what is on the horizon? Hopefully an El Niño, which will also get blamed on/connected to “global warming”. if the Nino 3.4 model ensemble is to be believed, then California will likely see a strong precipitation rebound in 2014/2015.
From the WUWT ENSO Reference Page:
![nino34Mon[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/nino34mon1.gif)
UPDATE: This stament from NOAA is relevant. (h/t to Roger Pielke Sr.)
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
800 PM PDT FRI JAN 17 2014
...GOVERNOR JERRY BROWN DECLARES A DROUGHT STATE OF EMERGENCY FOR
CALIFORNIA ON JANUARY 17TH 2014...
...THE USDA HAS DECLARED A DROUGHT DESIGNATION FOR SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY FOR 2014 FOR ELIGIBLE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCERS...
...EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA...
SYNOPSIS...
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA HAVE EXPERIENCED TWO BELOW
AVERAGE RAINFALL SEASONS RESULTING IN A REDUCTION IN RESERVOIR AND
GROUNDWATER LEVELS IN SOME AREAS. THE MUCH DRIER THAN USUAL
VEGETATION FOR MID-WINTER HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A HEIGHTENED WILDFIRE
CONCERN. THESE CONDITIONS WERE ELEVATED TO AN EXTREME DROUGHT
DEPICTION (D3) ON THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAPS WITHIN ORANGE COUNTY
IN MID JANUARY 2014. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR CLASSIFIES DROUGHT
INTO FIVE CATEGORIES OF INCREASING SEVERITY: ABNORMALLY DRY
(D0)...MODERATE DROUGHT (D1)...SEVERE DROUGHT (D2)...EXTREME DROUGHT
(D3)...AND EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4).
PLEASE NOTE THAT NEITHER NOAA NOR THE NWS DECLARES DROUGHTS.
DROUGHTS IN THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA ARE DECLARED BY THE GOVERNOR
THROUGH THE RECOMMENDATION OF THE CALIFORNIA STATE DEPARTMENT OF
WATER RESOURCES AND THE STATE CLIMATOLOGIST. HOWEVER...LOCAL
OFFICIALS CAN DECLARE LOCAL DROUGHT OR WATER EMERGENCIES AT TIMES
WHEN THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA HAS NOT DECLARED AN OFFICIAL DROUGHT.
LOCAL WATER PURVEYORS CAN ALSO IMPLEMENT VOLUNTARY OR MANDATORY
RESTRICTIONS ON WATER USAGE IN RESPONSE TO CURRENT OR FORECAST WATER
SUPPLY CONDITIONS REGARDLESS OF DROUGHT DECLARATIONS. THIS DROUGHT
STATEMENT PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF PERTINENT INFORMATION TO ENHANCE
PUBLIC AWARENESS OF DROUGHT OR ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS.
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
AT THIS TIME...IMPACTS HAVE BEEN LIMITED IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE DUE TO THE AVAILABILITY OF IMPORTED WATER.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION HAS ALLOWED VEGETATION TO DRY TO
CRITICAL LEVELS IN MANY AREAS...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR
WILDFIRES. THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER HAS ALSO REDUCED THE
AVAILABILITY OF RANGE LAND GRASSES FOR LIVESTOCK. WHERE LOCAL WELLS
ARE FED BY RAINFALL AND LOCAL RUNOFF...SOME SHALLOW WELLS MAY BE
GOING DRY OR HAVE ALREADY DRIED UP. IN ADDITION...THE LACK OF
RAINFALL AND RUNOFF THIS WINTER HAS LOWERED THE FLOW IN THE SAN
DIEGO RIVER...RESULTING IN STRESSES ON THE VEGETATION AND
WILDLIFE.
CLIMATE SUMMARY...
ORANGE COUNTY HAS BEEN ONE OF THE DRIEST AREAS IN OUR REGION OVER
THE PAST FEW YEARS. WESTERN REGION CLIMATE CENTER RECORDS FROM THE
SANTA ANA FIRE STATION INDICATE 2013 WAS THE THIRD DRIEST...AND THE
THREE YEAR PERIOD ENDING DECEMBER 2013 WAS THE FIFTH DRIEST. RAINS
HAVE BEEN MORE GENEROUS FARTHER SOUTH IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY WHERE
LINDBERGH FIELD LOGS BOTH 2013 AND THE THREE YEAR PERIOD 2010-2013
AS ONLY THE 20TH DRIEST ON RECORD.
A WELL-DEVELOPED MONSOON IN LATE SUMMER HELPED TO RAISE SEASONAL
RAINFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
PRECIPITATION SUMMARY FOR SELECTED CITIES...
DECEMBER 2013 SINCE JULY 1 2013
REPORTED % OF NORMAL REPORTED % OF NORMAL
NEWPORT BEACH 0.31 17% 0.69 20%
TUSTIN 0.98 41% 1.91 41%
IDYLLWILD 1.47 40% 7.77 80%
RIVERSIDE 0.16 10% 1.15 36%
PALM SPRINGS TRACE 0% 1.26 45%
BIG BEAR LAKE 1.02 33% 5.50 70%
REDLANDS 0.16 10% 2.54 61%
EL MIRAGE 0.03 4% 2.14 101%
BORREGO SPRINGS 0.00 0% 4.35 168%
CAMPO 0.78 34% 5.57 100%
LAKE CUYAMACA 1.71 35% 11.88 99%
LINDBERGH FIELD 0.46 30% 2.24 68%
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF JANUARY
WITH THE LATEST AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODELS HOLDING A STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY IS INDICATING A
BETTER THAN 70% CHANCE OF CONTINUED DRIER AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE
WEATHER.
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
WITH NO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...NO
SIGNIFICANT INCREASES CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREA RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS.
THE LATEST U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK CALLS FOR DROUGHT
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OR INTENSIFY THROUGH MARCH 2014.
NEXT SCHEDULED ISSUANCE DATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY
FEBRUARY 17TH...OR SOONER IF NECESSARY...IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.
&&
RELATED WEBSITES...
GOVERNORS EMERGENCY PROCLAMATION: WWW.GOV.CA.GOV/NEWS.PHP?ID18368.
CALIFORNIA DATA EXCHANGE CENTER: CDEC.WATER.CA.GOV/
CALIFORNIA NEVADA RIVER FORECAST CENTER: WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV/
DROUGHT MONITOR: DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU
U.S. DROUGHT PORTAL: HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV/DROUGHT/
CALIFORNIA DROUGHT PAGE: WATERSUPPLYCONDITIONS.WATER.CA.GOV/
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER: WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO: WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/SGX/
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
DROUGHT MONITOR
NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD
CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES
CALIFORNIA STATE CLIMATOLOGIST
US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS SOUTHERN DISTRICT
QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS...PLEASE REFER ALL QUESTIONS TO
W-SGX.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV.
&&
JAD
END
jai mitchell … repeat after me, “La Nina” … now say it on your own. Good, keep repeating it until you get it.
I’m reminded of a Tool song here, Aenema to be exact.
jai mitchell says:
January 18, 2014 at 6:14 pm
as Arctic sea ice cover is reduced, precipitation patterns over western North America will shift
toward dryer conditions in southwestern North America and wetter conditions in northwestern North America.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
So increasing Arctic sea ice should have the opposite effect?
My first trip to California was as a teenager in the 70’s. I’ll always remember a bumper sticker I saw in Berkeley at the time – “Number 1 or Number 2, don’t flush until the drought is through.” Restaurants did not offer water with the meal unless asked. This is not the first drought California has experienced.
Well I think maybe our Anthony is committing cherry picking, with his dramatic pictures of lakes Oroville and Shasta in “water rich” Northern California. How do Camanche and Folsom look Anthony ?
A more fair and balanced view of California’s water situation, might be obtained by looking at lakes like Lake Hughes, Lake Castaic, and Pyramid Lake or the new Eastside Reservoir in Riverside County; all of them in the traditionally desert Southern California region. They would be more hard hit by drought, compared to the ones Anthony picked, as the Sierra snow pack never gets down that far.
Pyramid lake has a problem, as you would have a hard time adding a thimble full of water to that reservoir, and those others; all similarly hit by the drought conditions.
I don’t think Governor Jerry Brown, spends a lot of time in Anthony’s neighborhood, or around the Sacramento, San Joachin Delta system, where they have those pumps, that pump the Sierra snow melt waters to go south, to water all the golf courses in So-Cal.
http://www.agoravox.fr/tribune-libre/article/la-centrale-aerothermique-d-edgar-132765
Professor Edgard Nazare conceived this tower to produce cheap energy for desalinazation in Tunisia
Too many people for the arid land it is. Plain and simple. You can store water. You can steal water from other states. But in the end it seems to me the only way to really prevent their being serious water shortages in central and southern CA when the snows and rains don’t come would be massive desalination facilities and the infrastructure to transport that water inland.
Stuff It, jai mitchell (6:17 pm)
Arctic ice in 2013 is in the middle of the pack for the past decade
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Extent_L.png
2013 had more ice at all dates than did 2012.
Go on, without looking at the legend, pick out 2013 from that tangle.
Take your rot to Skeptical Science where they’ll believe anything.
I’ll answer that for him. Folsom is currently at 17% capacity and at 34% of average for this date. Can’t find current levels for Camanche.
Found Camanche, 53% of capacity, 91% of seasonal for the date.
I see no reason except politics why we don’t build a national (or even international) pipeline system, to allow places with a shortage of water to buy from places with a surplus just like the electrical grid. Of course, in practice this would mean the whole system of farm subsidies would need to be dismantled — to which I say, it’s about f___ing time!!!
Water is heavy and the US is not flat. It takes a lot of energy to move water. Last I saw about 30% of US energy is currently spent pumping water out of the ground, distributing it, collecting it, treating it, and disposing of it. Two things would be better:
1. A lot of small nuclear desal plants using new modular reactors.
2. A hydrogen tight pipeline system (hard to do). Excess wind and nuclear power could be used to split water into oxygen and hydrogen. The oxygen could be dumped to atmosphere and the hydrogen injected into the pipeline system. Hydrogen is pumped to where energy and/or water are needed. Fuel cells generate power, water is byproduct. This is lossy but it is excess power that would be dumped up the cooling tower in the case of a nuclear plant or in the case of wind, disconnected from the grid at times of excess generation.
There is no water problem, just a people problem. Build the infrastructure with whatever means you choose, desalination, wind turbines, solar, gas, pipelines, power lines, roads … But be sure to charge for the true cost of construction, operation, maintenance and replacement of supply and delivery plus an operating margin and profit. Charge the true cost of water for irrigation as well. When the true cost is applied, people will conserve water on their own, modify their life style and choices, or move elsewhere. Drip systems replace spray irrigation once the cost of water increases to market value. Many behaviours change when water is limited or expensive. For example, you don’t see too many lawns in Palm Springs (although the Palms are drip irrigated [pun intended]).
ENSO neutral is a mistaken label in my opinion. I have said it before (and may have coined the label) that La Nada/El Nado may be where all the action is and should be studied as much if not more than El Niño/La Nina is.
1917 is actually the driest year still in a monthly basis. We passed into uncharted territory on a daily basis a couple days ago. Data from San Francisco which has a continuous record since 1850.
http://geosciencebigpicture.com/2014/01/09/a-very-dry-sea…-in-california/
http://geosciencebigpicture.com/2014/01/17/some-things-we…fornia-drought/
I sent all my research to all the state governors in January 2009 warning them of drought through 2035. To my dismay only WV and Florida responded.
I did learn the EPA is pretty much created a man made portion of.the Crisis under pres.dictator Berry. A lot of left wingers are responsible for the mess.
GlynnMhor says:
January 18, 2014 at 2:21 pm
Solar powered desalinization makes a lot more sense than solar powered electricity.
***************************************************************************************************************************I I will raise you a Harrop and say that we use whirly gigs.
Ops Barrie beat me to the punch…
Wayne Delbeke says:
January 18, 2014 at 9:02 pm
There is no water problem, just a people problem. Build the infrastructure with whatever means you choose, desalination, wind turbines, solar, gas, pipelines, power lines, roads … But be sure to charge for the true cost of construction, operation, maintenance and replacement of supply and delivery plus an operating margin and profit. Charge the true cost of water for irrigation as well. When the true cost is applied, people will conserve water on their own, modify their life style and choices, or move elsewhere. Drip systems replace spray irrigation once the cost of water increases to market value. Many behaviours change when water is limited or expensive. For example, you don’t see too many lawns in Palm Springs (although the Palms are drip irrigated [pun intended]
***************************************************************************************************************************
I have a better solution to your people problem – just get rid of the people no problem.
Man is not the problem with water or CO2 or AGW.
Government and it attending poverty that you propose is the problem.
Stephen Rasey … what about this graph?
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png
Bill Jamison says:
January 18, 2014 at 2:51 pm
“If the Nino 3.4 model ensemble is to be believed, then California will likely see a strong precipitation rebound in 2014/2015.”
———————————————-
Perhaps more like 2015/16, with the possibility of a flood year in 2016/17, or the year after.
Problem is those models have shown no predictive skill lately. They have called for El Nino for over a year now. I think maybe those models were built during a positive PDO when whatever they are looking would indicate an El Nino but now that we are in a negative PDO phase, those indications might manifest as neutral to weak El Nino. Have those models existed through an entire cycle? We are in a phase where strong El Ninos are less likely to happen.
jai mitchell says:
January 18, 2014 at 6:17 pm
San Francisco rainfall record, with accurate records kept since 1848
————————————————————————————–
Thanks for the chart. I never realized that so many of the Pacific Northwest flood years arrive when SF rainfall is below 20″. I wonder what drives that?
george e. smith says:
January 18, 2014 at 7:32 pm
————————————
That 8×10 glossy photo showing last year alongside this present year seems to negate your thought. This drought is still in place and by this summer, unless spring rains come strong, they are going to run into problems with those big pumps that send water south, mainly for farming. There is a mandate to keep the Delta waters from from being diluted by too much sea water intrusion. This is related to the fisheries and is a big deal.
Pamela Gray says:
January 18, 2014 at 9:10 pm
ENSO neutral is a mistaken label in my opinion. I have said it before (and may have coined the label) that La Nada/El Nado may be where all the action is and should be studied as much if not more than El Niño/La Nina is.
————————————-
Not only that, but when you measure the Pacific close to the SF/Bay Area you also need to account for the La Nado/El Nada effect. It too has been known to be a spot where the action is, and it can run hot and cold at the same time. Amazing really!!!
i’d drill a well, just for back up, but, since i live in The Valley, like totally, the City of Lost Angels owns the water rights to my property, so i’d be breaking the law.
it’s Chinatown Jake….
(sucks to be us %-)