Yesterday, my local reservoir, Lake Oroville, made the front page of Drudge. The photo below shows the Highway 162 suspension bridge and the Bidwell Marina, which is almost in the center of the lake now. The last time I was there at this very spot in September, boat launch ramps were still operable. From what I hear now, they are past the asphalt and down to mud for anyone that dares to try.
Below are two photos from the NASA MODIS imaging system that show California from the Los Angeles area north to the Oregon border. One if from January 13th, 2013, and the other is from January 14th, 2014.
The lack of snowpack in the northern Sierra Nevada is quite significant and the visual difference between years is stunning.
On Thursday, I was on Shasta Lake north of Redding, CA and took this photo of the Interstate 5 bridge crossing the reservoir. While you can’t see it in this photo, there still is water under the bridge. Shasta is the largest reservoir in California, and is down from its historical average by nearly half.
Of course, this is hardly new, low water levels have been seen on this lake before, such as in September 2005:
What is new is that the lake level is so low in winter, there’s no appreciable inflow, it continues to drop, AND there’s little snow-pack to replenish it.The US drought monitor shows the current situation:
![20140114_usdm_home[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/20140114_usdm_home1.png?quality=75)
Plus, California population has increased dramatically while water storage has not. That’s a testament to poor planning and the hands of environmentalists and their campaigns to stop new water storage systems. Some are saying this drought is in “uncharted territory”.
“Uncharted territory” has been a phrase spoken by many during recent water conversations. The population in California has doubled since 1977, many more permanent crops have been planted and more refuges established.
Source: http://www.chicoer.com/news/ci_24939467/governors-drought-declaration-leaves-no-doubt-butte-county
And the cause of this? Certainly not “global warming” though I’m sure the activist idiots will use every trick in the book to try to create a linkage. The cause is a the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and a weak to neutral and persistent La Niña pattern that some are calling “La Nada”. Bob Tisdale has a good summary on the PDO situation and how it is also related to “the pause” in global warming. The ocean rules the climate system.
The paper Chylek et al describes the linkage of ocean cycles to climate of the southwestern USA.
In the graph below, you can see that pattern has been in place since the strong La Niña of 2010. In 1997/98 when the huge El Niño occurred, California had so much water that dams were full and fears of flooding abounded. You can also see the long stretch of drought in the mid to late 1970’s reflected in this graph.
Yesterday, Governor Brown declared a drought emergency, which is probably a bit too late. He held up this graph showing precipitation by water year. In California, a water year is from July 1st to June 30th.
Here’s the source of data for that graph, showing that Governor Brown’s graph doesn’t quite tell the entire story since the peaks are muted and only the filtered values are used. His graph also only goes back to 1970. The next closest dry year was 1898, so the idea that this is “uncharted territory” for California is an accurate statement.
Here is the PR from the Governor’s office yesterday:
=============================================================
SAN FRANCISCO – With California facing water shortfalls in the driest year in recorded state history, Governor Edmund G. Brown Jr. today proclaimed a State of Emergency and directed state officials to take all necessary actions to prepare for these drought conditions.
“We can’t make it rain, but we can be much better prepared for the terrible consequences that California’s drought now threatens, including dramatically less water for our farms and communities and increased fires in both urban and rural areas,” said Governor Brown. “I’ve declared this emergency and I’m calling all Californians to conserve water in every way possible.”
In the State of Emergency declaration, Governor Brown directed state officials to assist farmers and communities that are economically impacted by dry conditions and to ensure the state can respond if Californians face drinking water shortages. The Governor also directed state agencies to use less water and hire more firefighters and initiated a greatly expanded water conservation public awareness campaign (details at saveourh2o.org).
In addition, the proclamation gives state water officials more flexibility to manage supply throughout California under drought conditions.
State water officials say that California’s river and reservoirs are below their record lows. Manual and electronic readings record the snowpack’s statewide water content at about 20 percent of normal average for this time of year.
The Governor’s drought State of Emergency follows a series of actions the administration has taken to ensure that California is prepared for record dry conditions. In May 2013, Governor Brown issued an Executive Order to direct state water officials to expedite the review and processing of voluntary transfers of water and water rights. In December, the Governor formed a Drought Task Force to review expected water allocations, California’s preparedness for water scarcity and whether conditions merit a drought declaration. Earlier this week, the Governor toured the Central Valley and spoke with growers and others impacted by California’s record dry conditions.
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And what is on the horizon? Hopefully an El Niño, which will also get blamed on/connected to “global warming”. if the Nino 3.4 model ensemble is to be believed, then California will likely see a strong precipitation rebound in 2014/2015.
From the WUWT ENSO Reference Page:
![nino34Mon[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/nino34mon1.gif)
UPDATE: This stament from NOAA is relevant. (h/t to Roger Pielke Sr.)
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
800 PM PDT FRI JAN 17 2014
...GOVERNOR JERRY BROWN DECLARES A DROUGHT STATE OF EMERGENCY FOR
CALIFORNIA ON JANUARY 17TH 2014...
...THE USDA HAS DECLARED A DROUGHT DESIGNATION FOR SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY FOR 2014 FOR ELIGIBLE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCERS...
...EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA...
SYNOPSIS...
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA HAVE EXPERIENCED TWO BELOW
AVERAGE RAINFALL SEASONS RESULTING IN A REDUCTION IN RESERVOIR AND
GROUNDWATER LEVELS IN SOME AREAS. THE MUCH DRIER THAN USUAL
VEGETATION FOR MID-WINTER HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A HEIGHTENED WILDFIRE
CONCERN. THESE CONDITIONS WERE ELEVATED TO AN EXTREME DROUGHT
DEPICTION (D3) ON THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAPS WITHIN ORANGE COUNTY
IN MID JANUARY 2014. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR CLASSIFIES DROUGHT
INTO FIVE CATEGORIES OF INCREASING SEVERITY: ABNORMALLY DRY
(D0)...MODERATE DROUGHT (D1)...SEVERE DROUGHT (D2)...EXTREME DROUGHT
(D3)...AND EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4).
PLEASE NOTE THAT NEITHER NOAA NOR THE NWS DECLARES DROUGHTS.
DROUGHTS IN THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA ARE DECLARED BY THE GOVERNOR
THROUGH THE RECOMMENDATION OF THE CALIFORNIA STATE DEPARTMENT OF
WATER RESOURCES AND THE STATE CLIMATOLOGIST. HOWEVER...LOCAL
OFFICIALS CAN DECLARE LOCAL DROUGHT OR WATER EMERGENCIES AT TIMES
WHEN THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA HAS NOT DECLARED AN OFFICIAL DROUGHT.
LOCAL WATER PURVEYORS CAN ALSO IMPLEMENT VOLUNTARY OR MANDATORY
RESTRICTIONS ON WATER USAGE IN RESPONSE TO CURRENT OR FORECAST WATER
SUPPLY CONDITIONS REGARDLESS OF DROUGHT DECLARATIONS. THIS DROUGHT
STATEMENT PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF PERTINENT INFORMATION TO ENHANCE
PUBLIC AWARENESS OF DROUGHT OR ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS.
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
AT THIS TIME...IMPACTS HAVE BEEN LIMITED IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE DUE TO THE AVAILABILITY OF IMPORTED WATER.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION HAS ALLOWED VEGETATION TO DRY TO
CRITICAL LEVELS IN MANY AREAS...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR
WILDFIRES. THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER HAS ALSO REDUCED THE
AVAILABILITY OF RANGE LAND GRASSES FOR LIVESTOCK. WHERE LOCAL WELLS
ARE FED BY RAINFALL AND LOCAL RUNOFF...SOME SHALLOW WELLS MAY BE
GOING DRY OR HAVE ALREADY DRIED UP. IN ADDITION...THE LACK OF
RAINFALL AND RUNOFF THIS WINTER HAS LOWERED THE FLOW IN THE SAN
DIEGO RIVER...RESULTING IN STRESSES ON THE VEGETATION AND
WILDLIFE.
CLIMATE SUMMARY...
ORANGE COUNTY HAS BEEN ONE OF THE DRIEST AREAS IN OUR REGION OVER
THE PAST FEW YEARS. WESTERN REGION CLIMATE CENTER RECORDS FROM THE
SANTA ANA FIRE STATION INDICATE 2013 WAS THE THIRD DRIEST...AND THE
THREE YEAR PERIOD ENDING DECEMBER 2013 WAS THE FIFTH DRIEST. RAINS
HAVE BEEN MORE GENEROUS FARTHER SOUTH IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY WHERE
LINDBERGH FIELD LOGS BOTH 2013 AND THE THREE YEAR PERIOD 2010-2013
AS ONLY THE 20TH DRIEST ON RECORD.
A WELL-DEVELOPED MONSOON IN LATE SUMMER HELPED TO RAISE SEASONAL
RAINFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
PRECIPITATION SUMMARY FOR SELECTED CITIES...
DECEMBER 2013 SINCE JULY 1 2013
REPORTED % OF NORMAL REPORTED % OF NORMAL
NEWPORT BEACH 0.31 17% 0.69 20%
TUSTIN 0.98 41% 1.91 41%
IDYLLWILD 1.47 40% 7.77 80%
RIVERSIDE 0.16 10% 1.15 36%
PALM SPRINGS TRACE 0% 1.26 45%
BIG BEAR LAKE 1.02 33% 5.50 70%
REDLANDS 0.16 10% 2.54 61%
EL MIRAGE 0.03 4% 2.14 101%
BORREGO SPRINGS 0.00 0% 4.35 168%
CAMPO 0.78 34% 5.57 100%
LAKE CUYAMACA 1.71 35% 11.88 99%
LINDBERGH FIELD 0.46 30% 2.24 68%
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF JANUARY
WITH THE LATEST AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODELS HOLDING A STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY IS INDICATING A
BETTER THAN 70% CHANCE OF CONTINUED DRIER AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE
WEATHER.
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
WITH NO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...NO
SIGNIFICANT INCREASES CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREA RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS.
THE LATEST U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK CALLS FOR DROUGHT
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OR INTENSIFY THROUGH MARCH 2014.
NEXT SCHEDULED ISSUANCE DATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY
FEBRUARY 17TH...OR SOONER IF NECESSARY...IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.
&&
RELATED WEBSITES...
GOVERNORS EMERGENCY PROCLAMATION: WWW.GOV.CA.GOV/NEWS.PHP?ID18368.
CALIFORNIA DATA EXCHANGE CENTER: CDEC.WATER.CA.GOV/
CALIFORNIA NEVADA RIVER FORECAST CENTER: WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV/
DROUGHT MONITOR: DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU
U.S. DROUGHT PORTAL: HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV/DROUGHT/
CALIFORNIA DROUGHT PAGE: WATERSUPPLYCONDITIONS.WATER.CA.GOV/
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER: WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO: WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/SGX/
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
DROUGHT MONITOR
NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD
CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES
CALIFORNIA STATE CLIMATOLOGIST
US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS SOUTHERN DISTRICT
QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS...PLEASE REFER ALL QUESTIONS TO
W-SGX.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV.
&&
JAD
END
It’s like the old joke when a lady was told she didn’t have sufficient funds for a purchase.. “What do you mean I don’t have sufficient funds? I still have checks!” California can have all the dams and underground water storage they want, but the state is consuming at a far greater rate than what mother nature can historically produce.
>>Oregon has refused to send water to California for years.
Hope they don’t budge. The folks in the Eastern Sierras learned the hard way.
Not only California, but many areas of the US Southwest are experiencing persistent and brutal
drought conditions. Southwest Oklahoma and neighboring areas of Texas are in dire straits. Wichita Falls, TX has implemented Stage 4 water rationing with fines of up to $2000. Small towns, such as Grandfield, OK which receive much of their water supply from reservoirs owned by other nearby municipalities have seen their sources cut off.
Your water is up here, In Alberta! See the June flood rain event :
http://www.environment.alberta.ca/forecasting/data/precipmaps/event_Jun19_22.PDF
and Winter cum to date:
http://www.environment.alberta.ca/forecasting/data/precipmaps/jan2014/wintacc.pdf
BTW there is a desalination plant going in at Carlsbad as a co-gen to the gas-fired power plant right on the coast. Seems a good use of natural gas.
Older Australians have learned, by experience, that sometimes it rains a lot. Sometimes it rains a little. Sometimes (quite often in most of this country) it doesn’t rain at all. And then it rains again.
Gail COmbs says: “Maybe Californian can buy some slightly used desalinization plants from Australia CHEAP?”
We’ve got our own, Gail. Santa Barbara, Spanish-tiled bastion of oh-so-green eco-lunatards, spent $34,000,000 in 1992 on a 3,125 acre-ft capacity installation. It was moth-balled after 4 months of operation, the wisdom of spending $1,400 an acre-foot appearing, belatedly, dubious in comparison with conventional sources at $500 per acre-toot. “Currently, [2009] the [local authorities] spend $100,000 a year to maintain much of the plant’s carcass in operating [i.e., operable] condition.”
Perhaps they will now spend the requisite $20,000,000 to put the plant back into operation, many of the bits and pieces having been cannibalized for use elsewhere in the meantime. This will take some time to complete, but may be finished just in time for the next monsoonal downpours in winter of 2015.
I believe California already has a few desalination plants. In fact, there is considerable engineering expertise in California as US firms have designed and built desalination plants all over the world. There is a one billion dollar, 50 million gallon per day plant currently under construction (25% complete) in San Diego: http://carlsbaddesal.com/Websites/carlsbaddesal/images/Engineering_News_Record_-_Carlsbad,_Unsalted_10.25.13.PDF
And others are being planned – Huntington Beach, CA; Pendelton, OR
Mike D. says: “Jerry Brown was elected Governor of Callifornia for the first time in 1976, and there was a drought in the state. He’s elected again and there’s another drought. Coincidence?”
Streetcred says: “GAIA is punishing them for electing him … they’ve already long run out of virgins to sacrifice.”
Jerry “Fruitfly” Brown continues to guber by just drinking herbal tea concocted from a few tana leaves from time to time.
List of existing and proposed desal plants in California: http://www.desalresponsegroup.org/socal.html
“I believe California already has a few desalination plants.”
Santa Cruz Country refused to allow a permit for one at the Moss Landing power plant because it “would encourage development”. These are people that believe that buying your children larger clothes just encourages them to grown. The development happened anyway and now they are getting severe salt intrusion from ground water pumping near the cost. They are just idiots. There is no other rational explanation.
Greg says:
January 18, 2014 at 3:42 pm
Well I suppose the best thing to do would be to take half of what you have left and start injecting it into the ground for hydraulic fracking.
Or they could take their precious water and inject it into the aquifer as a ‘Water Bank’.
Unless of course – the teacup appears to have a leak in it…
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/08/25/las-posas-basin-aquifer-failure_n_3813800.html
Maybe the time is right to try towing a few icebergs down from the Arctic or up from the Antarctic.
http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2011-08/10/iceberg-towing
I hear there is plenty of “land ice” making life tough for the penguins and tourists down in Commonwealth Bay.
A first phrase I coined a long time ago in the midst of one of our common droughts seems to fit here.
The others you seem to pick up over the years as one argued with our “watermelons” in Australia. You might refer to them as inviromentalists in your neck of the woods.
Two half full dams have more water than one half full dam.
Or common sense tells you you don’t build dams after the flood.
Or simply ask the right questions of the fools that stop the building of new catchments and watch them squirm.
My favorite is the extending of the sewerage system in Victoria during the drought that gripped the eastern seaboard for years.
If the population is growing and you the politician is telling us to conserve our water resources because we haven’t got any because of the drought.
Then why are we extending the sewerage system?
Their answers are usually along the lines of “urban sprawl”
Where is all the extra water coming from to flush down all the extra toilets?
And that is we everyone one must do their bit to preserve this precious resource.
Could it be that as long as we’re not up to our ankles in it you might think we won’t notice your stupidity?
Here’s a piece of advice.
When the drought breaks and it will.
As it did in Australia.
Experience tells us it would be best if you have a boat handy.
Just on a “lighter” note.
All join hands please.
Straightenen the line please.
On the count of three…..
One
Two
Three
Back flip
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/454657/Ice-age-on-the-way-as-scientists-fear-the-Sun-is-falling-asleep
Nothing new. Lived in the Bay Area in the mid 70’s during the midst of a strong drought period (and the global cooling scare). East Bay MUD had us on a 120 gpd ration. Shasta was down to something like 20 percent of full capacity. Just googled the ’77 level versus today — ’77 was 100 ft lower than the present level. The expert’s prognostication for recovery was 10 yrs of normal winter precipitation. In fact the reservoir was spilling in ’78 due to a wet ’77/’78 winter.
We stole all their rain here in the east. Seriously, SW Virginia had more rain by July 15 last year than all of 2012.
Precipitation Shifts over Western
North America as a Result of
Declining Arctic Sea Ice Cover:
The Coupled System Response
Earth Interactions • Volume 9 (2005) • Paper No. 26 • Page 1
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/EI171.1
as Arctic sea ice
cover is reduced, precipitation patterns over western North America will shift
toward dryer conditions in southwestern North America and wetter conditions
in northwestern North America. Here, three complementary lines of research
validate and explore the robustness of this possible climate change impact
San Francisco rainfall record, with accurate records kept since 1848
http://www2.ucar.edu/sites/default/files/news/2013/rainfall_chart_orig.jpg
Jimbo the salinity production near Sydney was closed for two reasons, the 65 wind turbines used were driving the people mad with their humming like a jet plane, and we got more rain and the dams were overflowing. Erected by the previous labor government who were climate change supporters etc.
joated saysJanuary 18, 2014 at 2:09 pm
“Maybe they should divert that high-speed rail money to something more practical like reservoirs or desalinization plants.”
How about a pipeline distribution network connecting water plentiful regions to water shortage locations.
There wouldn’t be any worry about spillage. It’s only water.
The Great Lakes and even the lower Columbia River could be tapped for agriculture and people.
How come several years ago, California had problems with a freak cold weather. Arnold said something about it. I believe you received snow and frosts?
Interesting, 1898 was a very wet year in Qld Australia but it was towards the end of a wet period leading in a very dry period the “Federation Drought” which started in 1900 and went through to 1912 in the area where i live but longer in other areas.
Fifteen years ago I was in LA and went to Redondo Beach. At some stage I needed to visit the toilet and was surprised to find that there were no male and female sections, just dozens of cubicles for everyone to use.
After use of course everyone was obliged to flush away gallons of water.
I have to wonder why do they not have urinals for men? If you are just taking a quick leak there is no need to flush away a gallon of water.
Any idea why this is the case?
The drought certainly brings on a taxing situation.
Drought? In California? If it wasn’t for federal government intervention sending water to California from as far as two states away, charging just 1/10 of the cost most of California would be desert. California has never had enough local water to support anywhere near its current level of population / agriculture.
The Köppen climate classification was originally mapped using boundaries of vegetation. Plants take (integrate) a long-term view of climate. I first heard of chaparral with respect to the climate of California. There is drought in California. Coincidence?
Meanwhile, in the Great State of Washington we are experiencing a freezing fog or rime. Locally it is called a silver frost. Things will be very picturesque when the fog lifts and the sun comes out. Look for images on the web.
Here, this winter’s weather matches that of Dec 89 – Jan 90 quite well.