The 'planetary tidal influence on climate' fiasco: strong armed science tactics are overkill, due process would work better

Using a sledgehammer to crack a nut - an example of overkill
Using a sledgehammer to crack a nut – an example of overkill

UPDATE: 1/19/14 2;30 PM PST

There is an update to this post here:

The Copernicus-PRP fiasco: predictable and preventable

Comments on this thread are now closed, continue there. – Anthony

While a journal is forced to self destruct by external pressure from “team climate science”, history and a new paper show us why due process would have been the right way to approach the issue. The phrase “using a sledgehammer to crack a nut” comes to mind.

This story by Jo Nova is making the rounds today:

Science paper doubts IPCC, so whole journal gets terminated!

While the shutdown of the journal Pattern Recognition in Physics that published a special edition on planetary tidal influence on climate is likely a bit of overkill, rebuttals would have been the right way to handle it rather than the Climategate style strong-arm gang tactics exhibited against journal editors as seen here from James Annan:

Kudos to Copernicus for the rapid and decisive way in which they dealt with this problem. The problems at the journal were was first brought to my attention by ThingsBreak just last night, I emailed various people to express my concerns and the journal (which was already under close scrutiny by the publisher) was closed down within 24h.

…I will say that some of the papers in that special journal edition really aren’t any better than curve fitting exercises. That said, I think they are entitled to the due process afforded any peer reviewed science publication. Certainly, we’ve seen some ridiculous examples of “team science” that should have never been published, such as RealClimate co-founder Eric Steig’s overhyped claim to a warming Antarctica that was dealt with effectively via the rebuttal process.

As many WUWT readers know, while years ago I expressed some interest in planetary tidal force effects on climate, I have long since been convinced that there’s zero planetary effect on climate for two reasons: 1) The gravitational effects at distance are simply too small to exert the forces neccessary, and 2) The methodology employed often results in hindcast curve fitting a theory to data, where the maxim “correlation is not causation” should have been considered before publishing the paper.

While the journal Pattern Recognition in Physics self-destructed rather than deal with rebuttal process (apparently at the direction of higher-ups),  this paper just published in the journal Solar Physics shows that journal does in fact take the rebuttal process seriously.

Critical Analysis of a Hypothesis of the Planetary Tidal Influence on Solar Activity

DOI 10.1007/s11207-014-0475-0

S. Poluianov,  I. Usoskin

Abstract

The present work is a critical revision of the hypothesis of the planetary tidal influence on solar activity published by Abreu et al. (Astron. Astro- phys. 548, A88, 2012; called A12 here). A12 describes the hypothesis that planets can have an impact on the solar tachocline and therefore on solar activity. We checked the procedure and results of A12, namely the algorithm of planetary tidal torque calculation and the wavelet coherence between torque and heliospheric modulation potential. We found that the claimed peaks in long-period range of the torque spectrum are artefacts caused by the calculation algorithm. Also the statistical significance of the results of the wavelet coherence is found to be overestimated by an incorrect choice of the background assumption of red noise. Using a more conservative non-parametric random-phase method, we found that the long-period coherence between planetary torque and heliospheric modulation potential becomes insignificant. Thus we conclude that the considered hypothesis of planetary tidal influence on solar activity is not based on a solid ground.

Conclusions

We analysed the procedure of planetary torque calculations from the paper by Abreu et al. (2012) and found that their results can be be affected by an effect of the aliasing distortion of the torque spectrum. We provided torque calculations with different sampling frequencies and found that the spectral peaks claimed by A12 are likely artefacts of the spectral distortion and do not have physical meaning. Then we repeated the analysis by A12 of the relation between heliospheric modulation potential and the planetary torque. We showed that the results of Abreu et al. (2012) are not statistically significant. Thus, the proposed hypothesis of planetary influence on solar activity is not based on solid empirical evidence.

The final draft of the paper can be read in entirety here: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1401.3547.pdf

(h/t to Dr. Leif Svalgaard for the link)

================================================================

A rebuttal was also published in Solar Physics simultaneously, but it is entirely behind a paywall, so I can’t elaborate any further than providing a link to it: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11207-014-0473-2

But, unlike Copernicus, that decided to pull the entire journal rather than allow the rebuttal process of science occur, Solar Physics saw no need to self-terminate for having published the rebuttal by Abreu et al. authors, and the journal Astronomy and Astrophysics. continues to exist despite publishing the questionable and now shown to be flawed Abreu et al. paper http://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/abs/2012/12/aa19997-12/aa19997-12.html

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dp
January 17, 2014 9:22 pm

So it’s to be war, then? War it shall be. To hell with the better ideas and strident debate and due diligence. The outcome is all that matters in the end and we will be remembered only for our heroes and the fields of red, our lies and exaggerations conveniently forgotten or expunged from the record (history is written by the victors). Take to the ramparts of Twitter and Facebook and free your slings and arrows – let the barbs fly, pillory with parody, juxtapose logic with feelings, let your screeds fly like the thunderous pounding of Mjölnir, hammer of the gods.
Or perhaps the greens could find some adult leadership capable of serious science.

January 17, 2014 9:23 pm

Nicola Scafetta says:
January 17, 2014 at 7:45 pm
this is frontier science as Copernicus, Kepler, Galileo Newton etc was at their time.
I take a dim view of people who compare themselves and their ‘work’ to Copernicus, Kepler, Galileo, Newton, and the mysterious [but undoubtedly very worthy] Mr. ‘etc’.

Marty
January 17, 2014 9:52 pm

I just want to say that so far I am finding the articles in the special issue to be delightful reading. I have the greatest respect for Grigori, Morner, and Scafetta and probably the others when I finish reading them. You have my support.

January 17, 2014 10:09 pm

Leif,
that is all you have to say about this blatant case of censorship which is quite similar to the censorship suffered by Copernicus, Kepler, Galileo, etc
It is unfortunate that you could not publish your rebuttal in the journal followed by my reply.

January 17, 2014 10:20 pm

Nicola Scafetta says:
January 17, 2014 at 10:09 pm
that is all you have to say about this blatant case of censorship which is quite similar to the censorship suffered by Copernicus, Kepler, Galileo, etc
Poor you to be in that same boat.
It is unfortunate that you could not publish your rebuttal in the journal followed by my reply.
A paper must be worthy of rebuttal, yours were not.

Gkell1
January 17, 2014 10:35 pm

Nicola Scafetta wrote –
“Remember that Copernicus, Kepler, Galileo, Newton etc science was considered “Junk” at the beginning also by smart people. But then things changed in time as people understood things better.”
The odd one out there Nicola is Sir Isaac who really did create junk by trying to tamper with the resolution for planetary retrogrades in order to encase planetary dynamics within a clockwork solar system or rather,a rotating celestial sphere universe.
To this day it is nearly impossible to find people who can discuss this crucially important issue in a transparent way by virtue that they are instructed/indoctrinated from the time they enter high school to think of Newton’s laws of motion with no historical or technical background whatsoever hence they remain unthinking for the rest of their lives. Mathematicians themselves once admitted that they haven’t a clue what Sir Isaac did and how he did it but that wouldn’t happen today for historical reasons –
“The demonstrations throughout the book [Principia] are geometrical, but to readers of ordinary ability are rendered unnecessarily difficult by the absence of illustrations and explanations, and by the fact that no clue is given to the method by which Newton arrived at his results. ” Rouse Ball ,1907
This is no mere matter of Newton being wrong or reckless,this was an issue that has always existed and especially in relation to the Galileo affair where there is a mismatch between the system which predicts astronomical events and those which prove the dynamics of our planet which in turn effects observations of all the other celestial objects and their genuine motions.
“Here lurked the danger of serious misunderstanding. Maffeo Barberini, while he was a Cardinal, had counselled Galileo to treat Copernicanism as a hypothesis, not as a confirmed truth. But ‘hypothesis’ meant two very different things. On the one hand, astronomers were assumed to deal only with hypotheses, i.e. accounts of the observed motions of the stars and planets that were not claimed to be true. Astronomical theories were mere instruments for calculation and prediction, a view that is often called ‘instrumentalism’. On the other hand, a hypothesis could also be understood as a theory that was not yet proved but was open to eventual confirmation. This was a ‘realist’ position. Galileo thought that Copernicanism was true, and presented it as a hypothesis, i.e. as a provisional idea that was potentially physically true, and he discussed the pros and cons, leaving the issue undecided. This did not correspond to the instrumentalist view of Copernicanism that was held by Maffeo Barberini and others. They thought that Copernicus’ system was a purely instrumental device, and Maffeo Barberini was convinced that it could never be proved. This ambiguity pervaded the whole Galileo Affair.”
http://www.unav.es/cryf/english/newlightistanbul.html
Newton exploited the lack of resolution in this matter hence the ‘predictive’ convenience became a point of departure for unbridled speculation in that ‘predicting’ and ‘speculating’ share roughly the same root term. The great disservice is not so much portraying the need of the Church to have an Earth centered universe,that really only developed later,it is the complete obliteration of a problem that tested even the most sympathetic supporters of the discoveries of Copernicus –
“Better still, if someone wishes, he can assign to the sky those motions of the earth that [Copernicus] adds to the first two, and use the same calculation procedures. But that highly learned and intelligent man considered it inadvisable, on account of these undisciplined minds, to invert the entire system of his hypotheses, and he contented himself with having established
that which was sufficient for the true discovery of phenomena.” Gemma Frisius
All this surfaces today,even in this thread, where not only does the tail wag the dog but the hair on the tail wags the tail and that is why so many gets themselves into a contrived stew. For those willing to make the journey back through history and the historical and technical foundations of the speculative/predictive excesses they will come back to astronomy and terrestrial sciences in a new and fresh way with not the slightest trace of the hype and novelties that pass themselves off as astronomy and terrestrial sciences today.
[Mr. Kellher, site Policy requires that you use only one screen name. Which name shall it be? ~ mod.]

Brian H
January 17, 2014 10:36 pm

Wiggle-matching, in the form of noting correspondences of possibly related phenomena, is perhaps the primary and most common source of speculation — the first step to the formulation of hypotheses which may survive challenge from all quarters to become theories. It is not ever the whole story, but it may well be the sine qua non of interesting investigation and productive imagination and insight.

January 17, 2014 10:43 pm

Nicola Scafetta says:
January 17, 2014 at 10:09 pm
similar to the censorship suffered by Copernicus, Kepler, Galileo, etc
You all the sudden dropped Newton [as he did not suffer censorship. perhaps], and you are wrong about Galileo. He was not censored for the science but for a theological issue.

January 17, 2014 10:45 pm

Nicola Scafetta says:
January 17, 2014 at 10:09 pm
It is unfortunate that you could not publish your rebuttal in the journal followed by my reply.
Papers have to be worthy of rebuttal. Your were not. I can post my referee’s report here if you would like.

Admin
January 17, 2014 10:55 pm

It is obvious appears likely, the editors, authors, and reviewers colluded to attempt to make this into a curve fitting skeptics coup d’état. They hijacked Volume 01, Issue 01 to create a special issue. Then they all worked together to create a summary article tying them all together. I believe the publisher was deceived perhaps even early on was cajoled into creating this journal. Killing the journal is a quite reasonable response to being mislead this way. This was not a good move for AGW skeptics. The publisher could have made a less anti-skeptic description of the reasons for the closure, but if he is part of the general community and then got taken in this way, his reaction is understandable. Don’t expect everyone to be following all the politics and the science of this issue as the addicts are.

negrum
January 18, 2014 12:17 am

Nicola Scafetta says:
January 17, 2014 at 7:45 pm
” … It can happen. Just keep an open mind and understand that this is frontier science as Copernicus, Kepler, Galileo Newton etc was at their time. …”
—-l
It might even be true that your work is on the same groundbreaking order as that of the scientists you quoted. It might be true that you are suffering from the same persecution as they did. But using these facts as a reason to re-examine your work sounds too much like desperate whinging and an insult to the intelligence of the person you are trying to convince.
There are better ways of making your point.

Gkell1
January 18, 2014 12:23 am

Moderator.Tried to post under Kelleher in another thread but no sign of response so assumed,perhaps wrongly,that it was an intervention. I’ll keep it at Gkell1 however ,with a more proactive approach to the issue of modeling conclusions without regard for physical considerations,I would expect this goes against the grain of many people here and my stay may not be long.
Isvalgaard wrote –
“You all the sudden dropped Newton [as he did not suffer censorship. perhaps], and you are wrong about Galileo. He was not censored for the science but for a theological issue.”
Not so, the Pope in that era was by far the most powerful political leader so when Galileo tried to put the words of the Pope in the mouth of a fictional fool (Simplicio) ,what do you think was going to happen ?.
Galileo was partially correct in his historical assessment of Church involvement in astronomical discoveries but look what has happened since as the so-called Galileo affair has dissolved into a childish idea that you have an Earth centered Church with a theological necessity on one side and an enlightened scientist on the other when this should be unbearable both technically and historically.
http://inters.org/Galilei-Madame-Christina-Lorraine
People seem to forget that for all the hoopla about the Royal Society revolution in the 17th century,it took them until 1752 to make the necessary correction which the Church had made back in 1582 where the true orbital position of the Earth in space was restored by taking off 10 days due to an overcompensation between daily rotational and orbital characteristics.
In short,nobody wants to expand their perspectives in any direction nor take the responsibility when that wider perspectives shows a much clearer technical picture on one side and a muddier historical picture on the other. The driving force behind the present speculative conclusions arise from a determination to bury historical perspectives because it is convenient to do so hence the draining away of the appreciation of the genuine natural historical insights that have thrilled so many generations of students and interested adults up to this era and its mania to predict the future.

Peter Miller
January 18, 2014 1:26 am

Perhaps a little off topic, but here is someone who is a fan of global warming and the science really makes a lot of sense!
http://www.expanding-earth.org/

Man Bearpig
January 18, 2014 1:29 am

This is very disturbing, it is a warning to other journals not to publish papers that support skeptic arguments, OR ELSE.

wayne Job
January 18, 2014 1:47 am

Every one seems to be missing the point here, it is not just just AGW science that is a closed shop that shoots the messenger. Physics was hijacked and shut down around 1920, their standard model is a joke of mathematical semantics, try getting past their gate keepers. The standard model of the universe does not work using gravity as 95% of the matter is missing so they invent dark energy and dark matter. If gravity is not working for the universe it is also not working for our solar system.
Gravity does not even explain our ocean tides, so I ask, what is at work here, some thing infinitely greater than gravity. To deride people outside these cabals trying to find new answers is an attack on freedom of thought. Free thinkers are what gave us our modern world. Willis is one that posts here. Those that posted in this journal are also thinking outside the square, right or wrong this is how advances are made.

Gkell1
January 18, 2014 1:55 am

Peter Miller wrote –
“Perhaps a little off topic, but here is someone who is a fan of global warming and the science really makes a lot of sense!
http://www.expanding-earth.org/
Dear ,oh dear,oh dear !.
Evolutionary geology suffers from the same problems as climate research in that there is a huge disparity between modeling using stationary Earth perspectives such as thermal convection as opposed to the two way street where the surface clues point in the direction of the rotating fluid interior and visa versa.
I went to the geological community about a decade ago and pointed out that all rotating celestial bodies with fluid compositions display an uneven rotational gradient between equatorial and polar latitudes so that exempting the rotating fluid interior of the Earth from this mechanism was much more difficult than actual recognizing this differential rotation.
It is possible to get the 26 mile spherical deviation between Equatorial and polar diameters to mesh with the symmetrical creation of crust off the Mid Atlantic Ridge via a common mechanism.By using the uneven gradient where the fluid interior of the Earth does not rotate as a unit but like the Sun and the gas giants with exposed viscous compositions, display a zonal flow. As this would be a new area of research there are really no graphics to present this in anything other than a loose form –
http://www.psc.edu/science/2006/inprogress/images/surfacezonalflow.jpg
Why waste time with an ‘expanding earth’ when the observations and principles are already in place to work with the uneven rotational gradient of the fluid interior and especially the graceful deviation of the Earth from a perfect sphere as it follows the characteristics of differential rotation.

January 18, 2014 1:58 am

Friends:
Man Bearpig says at January 18, 2014 at 1:29 am
This is very disturbing, it is a warning to other journals not to publish papers that support skeptic arguments, OR ELSE.
Repeated here for emphasis.
An idea cannot be refuted if it is not allowed to be openly published.
So, those who the ‘planetary influence’ stuff is wrong should be most concerned for it to be subjected to proper publication so they can refute it.
Rebuttal consists of arguments of the form,
‘The statement saying X is wrong because it disagrees with Y and Z’.
Rebuttal does not consist of assertions such as,

A paper must be worthy of rebuttal, yours were not.

which is the logical error of Appeal to Authority combined with the hubris of asserting one’s own infallibility. Indeed, such assertions imply their providers are not capable of providing a rebuttal.
Richard

January 18, 2014 1:59 am

Sorry, I intended to write
An idea cannot be refuted if it is not allowed to be openly published.
So, those who think ‘planetary influence’ stuff is wrong should be most concerned for it to be subjected to proper publication so they can refute it.
Richard

Greg Goodman
January 18, 2014 2:13 am

Connelly on Talkshop: “Look on the positive side: at least some people have actually *heard* of this journal now.”
Indeed. I’m sure this has done wonders for this unheard of journal. I’ve grabbed of copy of all the papers in case they try to censor the whole thing.
As they say, there’s no such thing as bad publicity 😉
Since what Dessler laughably calls “the standard model” is nothing more than wiggle matching using numerous free parameters to hind-cast the pre-manipulated climate record, I see no reason not to examine whether other wiggle matching exercises may not point to alternative paths to be investigated.
Scafetta’s work does have the merit of actually getting the projection pretty close for the last decade in contrast to “the standard model” which is an abject failure.
Having failed on their own science, Annan and his team continue machiavellian, behind the scenes manipulation to try to prevent alternative work being seen. A tactic which has probably increased the readership of these papers by several orders of magnitude.
What a bunch of Failureholics

January 18, 2014 2:24 am

richardscourtney says: January 18, 2014 at 1:59 am
“An idea cannot be refuted if it is not allowed to be openly published.”

No-one is preventing open publication. The ideas have been extensively canvassed. The Web is open to them.
The only thing lacking now is the endorsement of the Copernicus organisation. The papers are still there. They say they can’t endorse them. Should they pretend? Be required to? Who would that help?

rogerknights
January 18, 2014 2:32 am

Ron House says:
January 17, 2014 at 9:15 pm
I have added my thoughts here: http://peacelegacy.org/articles/breaking-peer-review-corruption-scandal-climate-science

That link doesn’t take one to the actual article; this one does:
http://peacelegacy.org/category/topics/corruption

January 18, 2014 3:35 am

Wow. It’s the first time I’m out of popcorn. This is unprecedented, if I may say so.

Adrian O
January 18, 2014 3:54 am

I don’t think that noticing an important pattern, “curve fitting,” should be held in low regard.
It sure beats by a margin making models with curves which don’t fit.
Trying to put out explanations, as far fetched as they may seem, for observed patterns, whether they are the multidecadal ones or the millennial U shaped curves is important as well. Such ideas suggest new measurements. And ultimately proofs by measurements will sort things out.
In modern science, observing a pattern is almost as important as explaining it.
Kepler is a great scientist for having observed the patterns of planet movements.
Experimentally.
Even though it was Newton who explained them in a simple way.

Greg Goodman
January 18, 2014 4:49 am

“The idea of comparing this incident to Galileo’s censorship is absurd.”
The comparison may be rather OTT, we are not at that stage. However, the facts as you initially reported them ” the shutdown of the journal” clearly represent an intent to stifle discussion rather than follow due process. A point you also make.
It is censorship rather than science.
With Desslers untruthful testimony before the Senate committee stating
>>
How many successful predictions have alternative theories made?
Zero.
>>
we see the insidious motivation behind the attempts to ensure this kind of work does not get accepting into “the literature”.
With the career censorship imposed on anyone but the retired and the most securely placed acedemics, the wording of the inquisition is not so far from the truth:
“to abstain completely from teaching or defending this doctrine and opinion or from discussing it..”
Sadly the comparison is not absurd.

January 18, 2014 5:00 am

rogerknights says:

Ron House says:
January 17, 2014 at 9:15 pm
I have added my thoughts here: http://peacelegacy.org/articles/breaking-peer-review-corruption-scandal-climate-science
That link doesn’t take one to the actual article; this one does:
http://peacelegacy.org/category/topics/corruption

Thanks Roger. Not sure what the problem was, seems to be working now.