NYT Pushes the Rising Tide of Climate Nonsense – This time in the Dominican Republic

Guest Post by Kip Hansen

clip_image002I could not let this bit of silliness in the New York Times pass without comment as I have recently spent seven years in the Dominican Republic, doing various charity projects and humanitarian work on everything from a national to neighborhood scale, and specifically worked on projects in the very area mentioned. I tried emailing the author of the piece, Randal C. Archibold, but as of this evening, have received no response.

The story concerns Lago Enriquillo, in the very southwest corner of the Dominican Republic, and Lac Azeui, in the very southeast corner of Haiti, both on the island of Hispaniola.

Of course, as usual, the people mentioned in the story lived on the local mud flats, probably 50 or 100 year flood plains, right up to the edge of the water. Until the advent of government and international NGO help with irrigation schemes, this part of the country was empty desert — with almost no population and no agriculture. The banana plantations and other agriculture there all depend on INDRHI (water resources department) irrigation water only recently available.

Here are excerpts from the NY Times story…the usual unprecedenteds, suicide of a loved one, ‘must be climate change’, quite silly really, except for the local misery.

Rising Tide Is a Mystery That Sinks Island Hopes

By RANDAL C. ARCHIBOLD JAN. 11, 2014

(Ezra Fieser contributed reporting from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.)

“LAGO ENRIQUILLO, Dominican Republic — Steadily, mysteriously, like in an especially slow science fiction movie, the largest lake in the Caribbean has been rising and rising, devouring tens of thousands of acres of farmland, ranches and whatever else stands in its way.

Lago Enriquillo swallowed Juan Malmolejos’s banana grove. It swamped Teodoro Peña’s yuccas and mango trees. In the low-lying city of Boca de Cachon, the lake so threatens to subsume the entire town that the government has sent the army to rebuild it from scratch on a dusty plain several miles away.

“Jose Joaquin Diaz believes that the lake took the life of his brother, Victor. Victor committed suicide, he said, shortly after returning from a life abroad to see the family cattle farm, the one begun by his grandfather, underwater.”

“He could not believe it was all gone, and the sadness was too much,” Mr. Diaz said, as a couple of men rowed a fishing boat over what had been a pasture.

“Theories abound, but a conclusive answer remains elusive as to why the lake — as well as its nearby sibling in Haiti, Lac Azuei, which now spills over the border between the two on the island of Hispaniola — has risen so much. Researchers say the surge may have few if any precedents worldwide.”

“The lakes, salty vestiges of an ancient oceanic channel known for their crocodiles and iguanas, have always had high and low periods, but researchers believe they have never before gotten this large. The waters began rising a decade ago, and now Enriquillo has nearly doubled in size to about 135 square miles, Mr. Gonzalez said, roughly the size of Atlanta, though relatively light rains in the past year have slowed its expansion. Azuei has grown nearly 40 percent in that time, to about 52 square miles, according to the consortium.”

“The scientists, partly financed by the National Science Foundation, are focusing on changing climate patterns as the main culprit, with a noted rise in rainfall in the area attributed to warming in the Caribbean Sea.”

“In reports, they have noted a series of particularly heavy storms in 2007 and 2008 that swamped the lakes and the watersheds that feed them, though other possible contributing factors are also being studied, including whether new underground springs have emerged.”

“People talk about climate change adaptation, well, this is what’s coming, if it’s coming,” said Yolanda Leon, a Dominican scientist working on the lake research.”

“Olgo Fernandez, the director of the country’s hydraulic resources institute **, waved off the criticism and said the government had carefully planned the new community and plots to ensure the area remains an agriculture hotbed. It will be completed this year, officials said, though on a recent afternoon there was much work left to be done.”

“These will be lands that will produce as well as, if not better than, the lands they previously had,” Mr. Fernandez said.”

** = This is the National Institute for the Development of Water Resources (Instituto Nacional de Desarrollo de los Recursos Hidraulicos – INDRHI) http://tinyurl.com/ltnmsm3

In all this drama, the journalist for the NY Times, apparently writing from the comfort of Mexico City, where he is bureau chief for Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean, failed to mention the most important facts about Lago Enriquillo. It is famous for its ups and downs, water levels rising and falling with the rains and droughts.

Oh, and it is 140 feet below sea level.

Oh, you didn’t get that from the story? That’s because they didn’t mention it. Maybe Mr. Archibold didn’t know, maybe he didn’t think it was important. What that means of course is that any water that comes in, stays in — until it evaporates or is pumped out. They don’t pump it, it is salty as all get out, like the Dead Sea.

I have worked with Mr. Fernandez’s INDRHI on fresh water-well projects in the area and with the Dominican NGO <i>Sur Futuro — Future of the South</i> on reforestation projects. They are quite aware of what the most probable cause there is — deforestation. [The southwest of the DR is known as ‘El Sur — The South’] The hills have been progressively denuded, both in the DR and across the border in Haiti, when it rains, when the hurricanes and tropical storms come, the hills send ALL the water hurling down into the streambeds and rivers, they lead downhill — at the bottom of <b>this</b> watershed is Lago Enriquillo. Once the water arrives down there, it can’t get out again. Milder (yes, check the records for this locality) milder temperatures the last few years have meant less evaporation, adding to the problem. (For local reporting, see http://tinyurl.com/l9co6dv — in Spanish.) There is the added factor, detailed in the Spanish language reporting, the sediments which are washed down in the raging waters from the denuded hills are filling up the lake from the bottom, raising the water level as well. There is not much science being done on this, as far as I can tell, despite the “consortium of scientists”, none is reported in the NY Times piece.

On the social side, you see a whole little town of concrete block homes built on the sand to relocate the citizens of some threatened village on the lake shore. They are horrific — both the original and the replacement — but typical of government solutions in the DR. It is, however, better than the housing the people currently have. Those houses in the photo probably have bathrooms, for instance.

There is, really, no mystery. When you keep adding water to a bathtub, and take less out than comes in, it keeps filling up.

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Louis Hooffstetter
January 14, 2014 7:55 pm

Thanks Kip!
So, to summarize we have a broad, shallow, tropical, hypersaline lake/swamp, located 140′ below sea level, along a major, active, tectonic fault separating the North American and Caribbean plates. And fluctuations in the lake/swamp are due to humans driving SUVs in developed parts of the world.
I’m convinced.

Reply to  Louis Hooffstetter
January 15, 2014 9:30 am

@Louis Hooffstetter – Take it one step further. If you STOP driving your SUV, you will be depriving salt water crocs of their habitat!

Rob aka flatlander
January 14, 2014 9:23 pm

Martin says:
January 14, 2014 at 9:37 am
All the author really had to do was go as far as the Wikipedia article…
Wait till the alarmists find out the article will be adjusted to fit climate change and then locked down

Jeff Alberts
January 14, 2014 10:09 pm

pokerguy says:
January 14, 2014 at 10:17 am
“Kip, write the NYT Public Editor, and cc the author if you like; that might get his attention.”
I’ve written to the NYT Public Editor half a dozen times. I might as well have written to a pile of rocks for all the response i’ve gotten.

Sirrah, you have insulted piles of rocks the world over!
😉

January 14, 2014 11:17 pm

Hi Anthony
Id be very interested in your comments, or perhaps even better a post on what the following link has to say about the deniers
http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2014/01/14/climate_change_another_study_shows_they_don_t_publish_actual_papers.html
Basically it claims that deniers dont publish peer reviewed papers and their assault on the climate change debacle has resorted to nothing more than unfounded blogs and right wing TV presenters.
Would really appreciate, as Im sure the other followers would, your take on this.

chilipalmer
January 14, 2014 11:30 pm

Here’s a NASA source for a satellite photo showing Haiti deforestation, Haiti/DR border. The site is a NASA site, Scientific Visualization Studio. There’s other info at the site. This photo may be from 2002.

January 15, 2014 1:08 am

Jason:
At January 14, 2014 at 11:17 pm you say to our host

Id be very interested in your comments, or perhaps even better a post on what the following link has to say about the den1ers
http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2014/01/14/climate_change_another_study_shows_they_don_t_publish_actual_papers.html
Basically it claims that den1ers dont publish peer reviewed papers and their assault on the climate change debacle has resorted to nothing more than unfounded blogs and right wing TV presenters.
Would really appreciate, as Im sure the other followers would, your take on this.

His “take on this” is demonstrated by his choosing to publish the excellent article on the matter by David M Hoffer which can be read at
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/29/peer-review-last-refuge-of-the-uninformed-troll/
And my explanation of why if it were true then it would be ridiculous nonsense is in the associated thread at
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/29/peer-review-last-refuge-of-the-uninformed-troll/#comment-1522700
Richard

johnmarshall
January 15, 2014 3:27 am

Lake Chad and don’t forget the Aral sea, also disappearing due to irrigation of the new cotton crops, a crop not indigenous to that area.

January 15, 2014 6:42 am

@richardscourtney
I think we’ve had this discussion before. I’m just not as optimistic as you, it appears. I see too much buy-in with the media. The general public may not consider AGW to be a major issue, but the vast majority accept what they’re told, and simply accept that it’s true. They’re too conditioned to believe what they’re told & not think for themselves that they won’t even consider an alternative position.
Perhaps we define “win” differently – I’ll accept that skeptics are winning when I start to see that change.

Editor
January 15, 2014 6:45 am

Reply to johnmarshall ==> Yes, you are right. The issue there is of course quite different….they are pumping fresh water out of the lakes and diverting the water that was running in. At Lago Enriquillo, there is the increased inflow due to deforestation and the possibility that they are running water in from another watershed to irrigate crops in the area, the excess ending up filling the lake. I have emails out to check with my local sources, on the ground people, on that side of it..

January 15, 2014 6:47 am

ATTN: Mods
I’m having a lot of trouble loading the site today. I’ve profiled the page load and determined that it’s hanging up on the doubleclick ad load:
http://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/ads (I’ll leave off the entire URL – email back if you want it)

Editor
January 15, 2014 8:02 am

Reply to philjourdan ==> I’m overwhelmed by your civility. A rare quality on the blogs. Never fear, most are here because we want to be (some others are here out of a misguided sense of duty to a greater cause, believing they have received marching orders from some guru at the very bleeding edges of one of the greater socio-political movements of our times, bless their souls). Truthfully, I suspect Kate and Gail are perfectly happy to satisfy your curiosity (real or feigned) from their vast store of knowledge (or through research) out of the goodness of their basic natures and because almost anything is more interesting than climate science.
To the point raised, as the crocs are endemic to the area (Central America and the Northern Caribbean), my suspicion would be they are a population that was more general on Hispaniola and have been reduce to living only in this lake — in other words, the Haitians have eaten all the rest and they have survived only on the islands of this forbidding lake. If I turn up any other data, I’ll post it back here.

January 15, 2014 10:01 am

I’ve had to switch browsers due to that page load problem – Safari won’t load at all and chrome is really slow.
Am I the only one having that problem?

January 15, 2014 12:34 pm

For a little context, it seems the lake was more than 10m higher in 1965 as per the chart on p.27:
http://dspace.library.cornell.edu/bitstream/1813/23555/2/MENGReport-Poteau-RomeroLuna.pdf
–AGF

Gail Combs
January 15, 2014 12:38 pm

Anthony’s The long awaited surfacestations paper
The link: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/05/11/the-long-awaited-surfacestations-paper/

January 15, 2014 12:41 pm

The Great Salt Lake hit a historic low in 1964, in concert with other terminal lakes of temperate latitude. So the comment on Lake Victoria is interesting: rain shifted southward. –AGF

January 15, 2014 2:33 pm

Jason says:
January 14, 2014 at 11:17 pm
===================================
Like DNFreedman discovering the Ebla archeologists, someone recently discovered Michael Kelly’s brilliant and devastating exhibition of the CRU emails. He has made it more difficult than ever for any informed and intelligent bystander to take GW science seriously, especially any defense appealing to peer review. See: http://michaelkelly.artofeurope.com/cru.htm
–AGF

Editor
January 15, 2014 7:19 pm

Reply to agfosterjr ==> There is something decidedly odd about that chart in the Luna 2011 paper, which shows the lake level 10 meters higher 1963-1966 than present days, as it also shows post 2000 levels dropping, while the text claims they were rising. If I get time (I’m onto another project already, I’ll take another run at the paper). Ten meters in real absolute water level would have resulted in far more increase in lake size than we see — refer to a good topo map of the area — the lake would have been huge….someone would be saying things like, “We haven’t seen the lake this large since the 1960’s..”

J. Gonzalez
January 21, 2014 1:29 pm

“They are quite aware of what the most probable cause there is — deforestation.”
That’s just incorrect. The deforestation in the area existed well before the lake’s rise.
I don’t think you’ve ever worked with INDRHI under Mr. Fernandez’s INDRHI.
INDRHI believes the problem was the broken dyke at the Yaqui del Sur, which allowed fresh water to rush into the lake, causing the levels to rise and also the salinity to drop. Later you write, “I am puzzled by the assertion that the Rio Yaque del Sur could possibly have been diverted to run into Lago Enriquillo. It runs into the sea just north of Barahona.” I’m not sure how closely you paid attention when you were here, but your understanding of the watershed is incomplete. There are many, many connections between the Yaque del Sur and the lake.
it is true that the lake’s rise and fall in previous years was normal, especially in the 1990s when seasonal evapotranspiration — much more severe than previously recorded — caused the lake to retreat and the salinity to rise. But then canals from the Yaque del Sur were constructed to keep water levels steady and the salinity at such a rate that marine life could continue to survive. But the lake surface area never expanded at the rate it did after one of the Yaque del Sur dykes broke following the storms in 2003 — Claudette, Odette, etc.
The Army Corps of Engineers and a group of scientists from NY came here to study the lake and said the cause was inconclusive, but likely due to increased rainfall and the broken dyke. Whether the increased rainfall is due to climate change is up for dispute. In my opinion, it seems unlikely, especially in that time span.
It may be misleading for the New York Times to say that it was climate change, but responding with an uninformed post, suggesting you have some special knowledge because you lived here for a few years, is equally unhelpful.