The Akademik Shokalskiy and the Xue Long have broken free of heavy ice and are making progress towards open water. http://t.co/nmpRTRhZfX
— AMSA News (@AMSA_News) January 7, 2014
It seems my forecast worked out well. From RT news:
A Russian-built ship stranded in the Antarctic ice has started moving away from the ice fields after a change of wind cleared its path. A Chinese icebreaker, which was caught herself on the way to rescue the vessel, has already reached clear waters.
…
Luckily, as the weather changed the danger threatening the trapped vessels decreased.
“The situation is favorable now. First, the wind changed direction from an Easterly to a North-Westerly, which changed the direction of ice drift. A large crack formed in the ice, and the ship is now navigating it,” Yury Volgov, director of the Far-Eastern Hydrometeorology Research Institute, which owns the Academician Shokalsky, told media.
The ship may escape the clutches of the ice field quite soon, ship captain Igor Kiselyov said.
“We are sailing at low speed, changing courses. We’ve traveled 20 miles so far. It’s difficult so far, with dense fog and visibility no further than 500 meters. But the ice is thinner and broken here, so we’re moving,” he said.
WUWT readers may recall that when U.S. TV meteorologists, including yours truly, were asked to assist in weather forecasting for the stranded vessel, I made a prediction on December 31st:
“In a couple of minutes John Coleman was back on the phone to me, he wanted my assessment of the maps. I had looked at what was happening and saw what I thought might be an opening in 7-8 days based on the forecast graphics from WeatherBell, where the winds would shift to offshore in the area where Akademik Shokalskiy was stuck.”
Here is the story of that forecast:
The Chinese ship Xue Long, which was caught in the ice pack herself on the way to rescue the Russian vessel, has already reached clear waters. From AMSA:
==============================================================
8:00am, Wednesday 8 January 2014
Both Antarctic vessels making progress through ice
The Australian Maritime Safety Authority’s (AMSA) Rescue Coordination Centre (RCC Australia) was informed early this morning that both the Akademik Shokalskiy and the Xue Long have managed to break free from heavy ice in Commonwealth Bay, Antarctica.
At about 730pm AEDT on Tuesday RCC Australia received a message from the Captain of the Akademik Shokalskiy stating that about three hours earlier cracks had started to open in the ice around the trapped vessel.
A short time later the Akademik Shokalskiy began to make slow movements in an attempt to break free from surrounding ice. The Captain reported that at approximately 8pm AEDT they had managed to successfully clear the area containing the heaviest ice and had begun making slow progress north through lighter ice conditions.
Shortly after midnight RCC Australia was advised by the Captain of the Xue Long that, at about 9pm AEDT, it too had managed to break free of the heavy ice and is now making slow progress through lighter ice conditions.
RCC Australia has advised the Captains of both vessels to attempt to reach open waters and advise the RCC once clear of the ice field. The Xue Long has advised RCC Australia it does not require any further assistance at this time. The Akademik Shokalskiy continues to move through the ice field and RCC Australia is awaiting confirmation that it does not require any further assistance.
The United States Coast Guard ice breaker Polar Star will continue to head towards the area until it is clear that both vessels are free of the ice field and no longer in danger.
Media Enquiries: 1300 624 633
Source: http://www.amsa.gov.au/media
A-thony nailed it, to the day. 8 days in the future! That’s pushing the limits, and warrants every bit of self-congratulation he feels like induging in, and all the kudos he receives.
I think we should all offer up a humble prayer of thanks for the safety of the mariners aboard both the Xue Long and AS. This could have ended so much worse. There are some serious questions to be answered now (I sincerely hope!)
So what? No pun intended. How embarrassing for the Russian and Chinese captains to be rescued by the ‘dreaded’ Americans? I can imagine their radio contacts. “Get out and pull the boat free yourselves, before the yanks come, or else don’t bother coming home!”
This fiasco is like the Energizer Bunny it just keeps going and going.
The Aurora Australis is now being prevented from unloading their cargo due to winds keeping them 20 miles away from Casey.
http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=2627
Looks like the Shokalskiy will make it back to NZ before their former passengers.
The real danger in climate science starts when they actually believe their own BS, and then act on it.
As they say in Brazilian Portuguese “quando a água bate na bunda” (translation: when water knocks on the butt) we seek to who really knows!
Notice that the Chinese light icebreaker Xue Long stayed where it was (supposedly) stuck, as the icepack loosened up. They waited for the (‘merely’) ice-strengthened Akademik Shokalskiy, the less-capable vessel, to slowly work it’s way out, first. Only then did the Chinese icebreaker make good its own escape. This is not only ‘classy’, it’s “proper operations protocol”.
The great thing about the winds changing and allowing the AS to escape (That the XL itself was actually “trapped”, was questionable all along. They ‘inserted’ themselves as close as they could to the AS, and then remain in the best position they could achieve, ‘just in case’. Again, this is “proper operations”.) is that the Russian ice-hardened cruise/expedition vessel already has paying passengers ($18,000 to $28,000 apiece) waiting with fingers & toes all crossed, for a previously scheduled upcoming outing to the Ross Sea & environs.
Yep. The Akademik Shokalshiy is going to make a flying resupply, refuel, and passenger-loading stop in New Zealand …. and head right straight back for Antarctica. That is the “best revenge” outcome, right there.
Although we all ‘understood’ that the winds would probably change so as to release these two vessels from the ice (and a few have the chops to actually forecast that event) … it really would not have been a problem or embarrassment for anyone involved, had the American Polar Star heavy icebreaker arrived before the winds.
Neither Captain Igor Kiselyov of the Akademik Shokalshiy, nor Captain Wang Jianzhong of the Xue Long did (or failed to do) anything that will reflect negatively on themselves, their Command, or their respective nations. Quite the contrary.
And neither Moscow nor Beijing would grit their teeth and wince, to see the “polar-class” American heavy icebreaker show up and free their ships. All three national parties struggle to justify & fund icebreakers and the polar research which they enable. All will derive valuable ‘political mileage’ from this affair, in terms of illustrating & publicizing the importance of national investments in ice-challenged maritime and polar enterprises.
I hesitate to commend the Mawson Expedition on their role here …. but ‘just sayin’. 😉