The Akademik Shokalskiy and the Xue Long have broken free of heavy ice and are making progress towards open water. http://t.co/nmpRTRhZfX
— AMSA News (@AMSA_News) January 7, 2014
It seems my forecast worked out well. From RT news:
A Russian-built ship stranded in the Antarctic ice has started moving away from the ice fields after a change of wind cleared its path. A Chinese icebreaker, which was caught herself on the way to rescue the vessel, has already reached clear waters.
…
Luckily, as the weather changed the danger threatening the trapped vessels decreased.
“The situation is favorable now. First, the wind changed direction from an Easterly to a North-Westerly, which changed the direction of ice drift. A large crack formed in the ice, and the ship is now navigating it,” Yury Volgov, director of the Far-Eastern Hydrometeorology Research Institute, which owns the Academician Shokalsky, told media.
The ship may escape the clutches of the ice field quite soon, ship captain Igor Kiselyov said.
“We are sailing at low speed, changing courses. We’ve traveled 20 miles so far. It’s difficult so far, with dense fog and visibility no further than 500 meters. But the ice is thinner and broken here, so we’re moving,” he said.
WUWT readers may recall that when U.S. TV meteorologists, including yours truly, were asked to assist in weather forecasting for the stranded vessel, I made a prediction on December 31st:
“In a couple of minutes John Coleman was back on the phone to me, he wanted my assessment of the maps. I had looked at what was happening and saw what I thought might be an opening in 7-8 days based on the forecast graphics from WeatherBell, where the winds would shift to offshore in the area where Akademik Shokalskiy was stuck.”
Here is the story of that forecast:
The Chinese ship Xue Long, which was caught in the ice pack herself on the way to rescue the Russian vessel, has already reached clear waters. From AMSA:
==============================================================
8:00am, Wednesday 8 January 2014
Both Antarctic vessels making progress through ice
The Australian Maritime Safety Authority’s (AMSA) Rescue Coordination Centre (RCC Australia) was informed early this morning that both the Akademik Shokalskiy and the Xue Long have managed to break free from heavy ice in Commonwealth Bay, Antarctica.
At about 730pm AEDT on Tuesday RCC Australia received a message from the Captain of the Akademik Shokalskiy stating that about three hours earlier cracks had started to open in the ice around the trapped vessel.
A short time later the Akademik Shokalskiy began to make slow movements in an attempt to break free from surrounding ice. The Captain reported that at approximately 8pm AEDT they had managed to successfully clear the area containing the heaviest ice and had begun making slow progress north through lighter ice conditions.
Shortly after midnight RCC Australia was advised by the Captain of the Xue Long that, at about 9pm AEDT, it too had managed to break free of the heavy ice and is now making slow progress through lighter ice conditions.
RCC Australia has advised the Captains of both vessels to attempt to reach open waters and advise the RCC once clear of the ice field. The Xue Long has advised RCC Australia it does not require any further assistance at this time. The Akademik Shokalskiy continues to move through the ice field and RCC Australia is awaiting confirmation that it does not require any further assistance.
The United States Coast Guard ice breaker Polar Star will continue to head towards the area until it is clear that both vessels are free of the ice field and no longer in danger.
Media Enquiries: 1300 624 633
Source: http://www.amsa.gov.au/media
Alan, Aphan, Gail and all the other commenters; many thanks. Highly informative and eye opening comments the past two weeks. Hope all the crews are well, and they can get on with their missions.
So a ship of climate change scientists can’t predict when sea ice will trap them, but a “climate change denier” can predict when they will be freed.
That tells you all you need to know about this debate.
“But…but…weather is not climate!!!”
Yeah…pound snow climate changers.
So Anthony, do you have a forecast for 2100, If you’ve helped them out with one problem you might as well get stuck into the rest…….
Excellent work Mr Watts. I am glad that the crews of both ships are are safe.
Not sure which jurstiction the charter was drawn up under but under English contract law, the charter by Prof Turney is now extinguished due to the contract being frustrated by an act of one of the parties. If that is the case there is no obligation for the Russians to pick up Prof Turney and his party. I hope the Russians make port before the greenies. Suggested title for the movie
” Ice Cold Milk Shake in Auckland”
Reg. Blank says:
January 7, 2014 at 2:00 pm
Paul Coppin says:
January 7, 2014 at 2:18 pm
I think criticism of the evacuation decision is unwarranted. The Akademik Shokalskiy was stuck in ice; if the wind coming in off the ocean intensified there was a real danger the hull could be compromised. In that situation, the passengers contributed nothing to the essential operation of the ship and little if anything to the safety of themselves and other passengers. Getting them out of the way left the professional crew with only the ship to worry about. Even so, wind conditions prevented helicopter operations for several days. When a flight window opened up, they took it. IMHO that was the right decision; I’d bet their insurance company insisted on it.
Alan Watt, Climate Denialist Level 7 says:
January 7, 2014 at 2:49 pm
I think criticism of the evacuation decision is unwarranted.
__________________
I think most of us would agree.
Of course, there would be a few knotheads that would rather have seen the passengers plucking penguin feathers on YouTube.
Gone with the wind.
Alan Watt, Climate Denialist Level 7 says:
January 7, 2014 at 2:49 pm
—-l
Agreed. It could just as easily have gone the other way. A clear case of damned if you do and damned if you don’t by public opinion.
A climate alarmist named Turney.
Lamented the burning Gaia.
Set sail for the pole, but the ice took its toll.
So he told the crew of the Shokalski I’ll see ya!
Congratlations, An-th-ony! I proudly showed off to many that I am in contact with the owner of the most reknown skeptical blog site in the world, who was asked to help the situation with his knowledge of weather and climate. He provided the helpful information and weather report that the climate scientists on board the ship that got stranded in ice while looking for more global warming evidence. Evidently they don’t understand weather nor climate! I will try to call a talk show host and give them the news. This is big news and is worthy of interest due to the irony!
Reg. Blank says:
January 7, 2014 at 2:00 pm
Remind me again, what dire emergency was it that required the passengers to be “rescued” when their booked holiday duration came to an end?…
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
It was to keep the Russian crew from tossing them one and all bodily on to the ice.
Ugh – run on sentence: Reposted for cogent reasons.
Congratlations, An-th-ony! I proudly showed off to many that I am in contact with the owner of the most reknown skeptical blog site in the world, who was asked to help the situation with his knowledge of weather and climate. He provided the helpful information and weather report (that the climate scientists on board the ship that got stranded in ice while looking for more global warming evidence) couldn’t conceive, even with their vast resources of climate scientists buddies. Evidently they don’t understand weather nor climate! His weather report manifested on time per his forecast! I will try to call a talk show host and give them the news about WUWT gets it right. This is big news and is worthy of interest due to the irony!
The professional sailors on scene chose to stay, confident that the weather would soon release their ship. It did.
The so-called “Climate Change Professor” on scene has made a fool of himself in so many ways! First, towing the Argo ATV was bizarrely risky and stupid. This vehicle goes about 3 mph in the water, nice smooth water. Second, clearly the captain demanded that the passengers return so the ship could depart, but they had not taken precautions to be able to do so. Third, now Turney the Turkey tries to downplay the actual motivation for the trip, which was to promote Global Warming to build the worth of his green-products company.
He disrupted the schedule of four other ships, caused the research programs of three other groups to lose weeks of opportunity in the short Antarctic summer, and issued a Mayday under very dubious circumstances. Why does anyone defend him?
“It seems my forecast worked out well.”
With all due respect, forecasting that a ship stuck in ice will become unstuck is not a difficult forecast to make. It’d be like forecasting that all of this cold weather in America right now will eventually end.
As I said on the original thread on the weather forecast for the ships, Anthony and Joe should have been a much bigger story in this. Is there no decency at all among these guys? Did the Stoat or even Gavin blog a congratulations to Anthony. You and Joe should at least write a paper on this should-be forecast of the decade for AMS – it is a beautiful piece of work. What a giant you truly are.
Weather forecast:1 Climate forecast:0
Great job Anthony!!!!
one meteorologist does what a an entire ship full of ‘climate scientists’ can’t.
Congratulations, Anthony and WeatherBELL. Great call. I wouldn’t have wanted to make that call, a week into the future, with so many watching.
You may not get a whole lot of cheering for your success, but if the forecast had been a bust I suspect we never would have heard the end of it.
kevin says:
January 7, 2014 at 3:28 pm
“It seems my forecast worked out well.”
With all due respect, forecasting that a ship stuck in ice will become unstuck is not a difficult forecast to make. It’d be like forecasting that all of this cold weather in America right now will eventually end.
++++++++++
Kevin: Your lack of respect shows through your drivel. Do you know what “with all due respect means?” The forecast was specific in when the turn around would happen. Did you read the forecast?
I might have missed something, but now it’s entirely possible that the Russian ship will make it back home before the “survivors” do because they’re now stuck on a ship that has to finish its original mission first.
Anthony should start a weather App for stranded turkeys – “it’s just weather”.
With all due respect, forecasting that a ship stuck in ice will become unstuck is not a difficult forecast to make.
Perhaps you’re an expert? The Russian forecast I reported a couple of days ago said there was a narrow window of opportunity for the vessels to free themselves 7th/8th – after which the winds would reverse back to Easterlies that would have kept the vessels trapped through the Antarctic winter if the Polar Star proved unable to reach them before the ice became too thick. Ice was reported as 3-4m thick – the Polar Star can just about break through when it’s 6m.
Congratulations Anthony
http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shiplocations.phtml?lat=-65&lon=100&radius=400
Good call. You will get no thanks though.
Now that Mr. Turkey’s debacle is almost over, maybe he will view climate change a little differently. He has been thoroughly humiliated by ‘melting’ Antarctica and can now scurry off with his tale between his legs. He should never try this nonsense again and an investigation needs to be made into his disastrous misadventure based on voodoo climastrology.
kevin says:
January 7, 2014 at 3:28 pm
“It seems my forecast worked out well.”
With all due respect, forecasting that a ship stuck in ice will become unstuck is not a difficult forecast to make.
—-l
Would you say, with or without respect, that accurately forecasting weather conditions that would enable a ship in the polar regions to break free from ice 7 to 8 days in the future is difficult? I await your reply with interest.
I have also asked at the very fameous institute of “psi Scientific International” who are the “Climate clowns?”
and got a very long list.
Can anyone here try and guess whether that list did contain anyone of themselves?
Some minutes ago, I did make you all aware of where to find LENINs 21 rules of so called Democratic centralism. And of Scientific leadership. But I can repeat it.
It is found under the keyeword “twenty-one conditions” on wikipedia, that is worth reading and comparing.