The gift that just keeps on giving.
Bishop Hill writes:
I did wonder if applying the “Ship of Fools” tag to Chris Turney and his shipmates wasn’t just a bit rude, but take a look at this video (below), recorded before his departure, in which he talks about the trip. You have to say that Turney does not come over well. And to spend most of the interview discussing the life and death nature of the expedition and the hardships they will face, before revealing that he is taking his wife and family along, is almost too much.
You can see how the trip might end in a shambles.
There is a transcript also. Click image for video and transcript.
=========================================================
Who Is Behind The Ship Of Fools? The Spectator, 4 January 2014
Ross Clark, The Spectator
As Chris Turney and his colleagues make their way home from their failed adventure, the next question is: who is going to be paying for their folly? It certainly isn’t the general public. The efforts by Turney and his co-leader Chris Fogwill to crowd-fund money have been an embarrassing failure. They were seeking to raise $49,000 in this way – a small fraction of the $1.5 million overall costs – but they managed to raise a mere $1,000 from 22 people.
Not even the promise of a signed copy of Turney’s book, 1912: the year the World Discovered Antarctica was enough to tempt donors into action: not a single one chose to receive the book.
British taxpayers, needless to say, have dipped in their toes. One of the sponsors is the University of Exeter, Professor Turney’s previous employer. The university is fast on its way to taking over from the University of East Anglia as the global warming lobby’s chief mouthpiece. Universities claim to have fallen on hard times but there seems to be no lack of money when it comes to broadcasting the global warming lobby’s case: Exeter has just launched a ‘massive open online course’ on climate change which the public are all invited to sign up – all for free. I don’t think I would be pleased about that if I was paying £9,000-a-year tuition fees for one of Exeter’s other course.
Another question that needs to be asked about Turney’s expedition is how come the only journalists aboard are from the Guardian, which has sent two reporters, the BBC and Radio New Zealand – all eager mouthpieces of the global warming lobby. I would be fascinated to know if anyone else was invited.
The timing of the publication of a paper by Turney’s current employer, the University of New South Wales, is also fascinating. That appeared in Nature on 1 January, claiming that current climate models under-estimate the level of warming, which could reach 4C by 2100.
As I noted here on Thursday, as the world fails to warm, the greater faith seems to be put into faulty climate models which so far have proved wrong in many respects – among them predicting ever hotter and drier summers for the UK, the exact opposite of the trend of the past decade. As a sign of just how far the climate debate has veered away from genuine science into ideological nonsense, have a look at this quote:
‘In sum, a strategy must recognise what is possible. In climate research and modelling, we should recognise that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.’
Any ideas where it comes from? The IPCC report of 2001, when that body still recognised that predictions of the sort made by Turney’s colleagues are fantasy.
=========================================================
WUWT Reader LeAnn (Quin Tessential) writes to us suggesting that things aren’t as they seem to be:
According to all I’ve read, researched, recorded, and documented… I’m beginning to think that there is NO WAY that the Akademik Shokalskiy got anywhere near the open polyna at Mertz glacier. That (could) mean that Chris Turney reported that the ship was somewhere that it never really arrived at.
From “thesargasso”
From the http://thesargasso.blogspot.com/search?updated-max=2013-12-28T20:38:00-08:00&max-results=7
DATA ON CAPE DE LA MOTT:
Country USA Latitude 67° 00′ 00.0″ S -67.000 Longitude 144° 25′ 00.0″ E 144.417
A prominent cape separating Watt and Buchanan Bays. Just southward the continental ice surface rises 520 m at Mount Hunt. Charted by the AAE (1911-14) under Douglas Mawson, who named it for C.P. de la Motte, third officer on the expedition ship this cape is “Point Case,” which the USEE (1838-42) under Lt. Charles Wilkes saw from what was called “Disappointment Bay” on Jan. 23, 1840.
A prominent cape west of the Mertz Glacier on the coast of George V Land. Discovered by AAE (1911-14) under Sir Douglas Mawson, who named it after C P de la Motte, a member of the expedition.
Also from the Sargasso.blogspot.com website-
SOS ANTARCTICA–THE FATE OF THE AKADEMIK SHOKALSKIY
“The 620 dwt research vessel Akademik Shokalskiy became trapped in ice off the coast of Antarctica near Stillwell Island. The Akademik Shokalskiy had been at anchor 40 miles off Mawson’s Hut on Cape Denison, Antarctica with 74 people when it departed for the Mertz glacier. The vessel became stuck in heavy ice floes as it approached Cape de la Motte.”
Based on the maps of the Antarctic coastline provided by the Sargasso website AND the interactive google maps on both the guardian.com on Alok Jha’s posts about the expedition AND the one on www.spiritofmawson.com-the expedition NEVER went further down the coastline than Cape de la Motte.
So when Chris Turney says that they made it into “the open water polynya” on the Mertz glacier, he’s either completely mistaken about where his group actually made shore, or he’s lying.
According to the blog entries on the www.spiritofmawson.com, AND a livefeed interview with Chris Turney himself on December 22-there was a blizzard coming in and the ice was closing around them.
See Chris Turney himself-
The above YouTube video titled “Farewell to Mawson’s Base (Cape Denison) which was streamed live on Dec 22,2013. It’s an interview with Chris Turney standing on board the ship in howling wind, sub degree weather, yelling into his mic, and you actually SEE the zodiac zip past behind him on the open ice behind him.
At 1:58 in the video he says:
“We knew this bad weather was coming in”. He goes on “We’re basically here at the base of Mertz Glacier, and we’re basically being hammered by a blizzard.”
You can also see the zodiac running back and forth behind him and people walking on the ice near the ship.
According to the blog entry made by Peter and Judy Stevenson, on December 22, 2013- We know this:
“The journey today is to move east around the large B9B iceberg. This will take all day and into tomorrow, hopefully placing us at the shore edge of the Mertz glacier and Stillwell Island area, and providing the opportunity to step onto the Antarctic continent.”
Now. …IF the ship had to travel EAST, “around” the B09B iceberg towards the Mertz Glacier, then that means that it previously been anchored somewhere to the WEST of the iceberg that blocks the entrance to Commonwealth Bay. And that trip was supposed to take “all day and into tomorrow” which would make their arrival at the Mertz glacier on December 23rd.
In the video,Chris said they were at the base of the Mertz glacier on the 22nd. The passengers say ON the 22nd that they are more than a day away from it.
Chris’s twitter feed shows this entry on the 21st–
Off to Mertz Glacier.-2degC, -11degC wind ch
Hours later on his twitter feed, he shows a video from Alok Jha showing them passing ICEBERGS between the shoreline and the ship-since the ice and land are on the ships starboard side, it indicates the ship was headed in the direction of the Mertz glacier, away from Commonwealth Bay.
Chris Turney @ProfChrisTurney 22 Dec
We’re passing some fantastic looking ice bergs!
#spiritofmawson Alok Jha https://vine.co/v/hEJq7utbQj7
On the 22nd-twitter feed-
Chris Turney @ProfChrisTurney 22 Dec
Blizzard. -4degC, -15degC wind chill.
There are NO twitter entries for December 23, and only ONE on the 24th. Why would a scientist on a historical expedition who had done nothing but tweet and blog and record videos suddenly STOP communicating at ALL for two days?
And we know from both maps that the ship didn’t make it past Cape de la Motte-which it would have to to reach the “open water polyna” on Mertz Glacier.
Yet Chris Turney said this on Dec 26th in a blog post on www.spiritofmawson.com-
“Following our successful visit to Cape Denison, sea ice remained clear, allowing our science expedition to proceed to the Mertz Glacier and open water polynya on the other side of Commonwealth Bay. Good conditions allowed the team to reach the Hodgeman Islets to continue our science programme and make comparisons to our findings around Mawson’s Hut. We managed to collect a range of samples for three of the science teams on these rarely visited islands; a fantastic result. The distance from the land to the sea ice edge is only 5 kilometres, providing an excellent test of the impact of the large sea ice extent around Cape Denison.
Supported by volunteers on board, our teams investigated marine mammals, ornithology, glaciology while oceanographic work continued on board. Kerry-Jayne Wilson of the Blue Penguin Trust found the penguin colony on the Hodgeman Islets is thriving, demonstrating the distance the Mawson Hut Adelie penguins have to travel is a major factor in the fall of numbers. Tracey Rogers of UNSW also obtained the largest number of seal blubber samples on the expedition while Eleanor Rainsley collected geological samples that will provide an invaluable insight into the history of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. Returning to the Shokalskiy, conditions started to close in and we quickly loaded the vehicles on to the vessel.”
And then in the Guardian article where he tries to justify the trip, he said this:
“Unfortunately, events unfolded which no amount of preparation can mitigate. To provide a comparison with the samples we collected in the Mawson Hut area, we relocated the vessel to the Mertz Glacier area in the east, a major driver of ocean circulation and importantly an area where the continent is closer to the sea ice edge. Late on 23 December, we returned to the Shokalskiy. We had completed our work programme on the continent and were heading north into open water to continue the oceanographic work on the return home.
Unluckily for us, there appears to have been a mass breakout of thick, multiyear sea ice on the other side of the Mertz Glacier; years after the loss of the Mertz Glacier tongue. There was nothing to suggest this event was imminent”
More damning evidence? In the numbered Australasian Antarctic Expedition 2013 videos on youtube, you will see Parts 13 and 14 showing the trip to Mawson’s huts, and Part 15 shows the first mayday call from the ship. Where is the day or TWO days that is supposed to be between the Mawson trips and being stuck in the ice? Where’s video footage showing the groups on shore collecting samples? Or any photographs from them? Or even ONE of the Mertz Glacier they are supposedly so close to? Was Turney actually in Watts Bay (oh the irony) or Buchannan Bay when he thought he was near the glacier?
Something’s wrong here.
UPDATE:
For the record, the lack of any publicly available and accurate log (the Live EXPEDITION Tracker on spiritofmawson.com is woefully incomplete) makes interpreting the expedition times and dates a murky proposition at best, and leaves interested parties to interpret other available evidence, such as blog posts, Twitter entries, and other anecdotal records. In that process, along with time zones, and the way certain web pages might log times differently, confusion is likely to set in. In the above third piece by LeAnn, there are some claims that can’t be substantiated either way and speculation abounds. That said, there are some things in LeAnn’s post that are probably a result of that sort of confusion due to lack of a good timeline. From my view Turney’s expedition most likely made it to Mertz glacier, but they did a poor job of documenting it. Social media really shouldn’t be the way to log a scientific expedition.
While LeAnn’s entry raises some questions that are worth seeking answers to, I would caution readers not to speculate until such time those things can be nailed down, and wait until an official expedition log is posted, so that anecdotal information can be reconciled with the official expedition log. Given the intense interest of this expedition, and the fact that it was publicly funded, I think it is incumbent on the spiritofmawson.com website to post a valid trip log so these questions about who/what/when/where can be reconciled. I look forward to this happening.
Never attribute malice to what can be explained by simple incompetence.
– Anthony
UPDATE2: Other editorial cartoons are following Josh’s lead:
Source: http://www.pennlive.com/opinion/index.ssf/2014/01/global_warming_irony_global_warming_research.html
I remember back in the 60s when the space race was in high gear and we were just about ready to put a man on the moon. Criticism was launched that it sucked up money that could be used to alleviate poverty among other things. I won’t get into that argument one way or the other except to ask, ‘what the heck are we in the Antarctic for in the first place?’ And, more specifically, what the heck is the good climate change professor, Dr. Chris Turney, doing there?
Oh, I know, supporting the climate change meme. And, thus supporting a company he helped found: Carbonscape? Let us see what it is:
‘Within this eclectic mix of innovation and natural beauty, the idea behind Carbonscape was conceived by a team motivated to address the burgeoning problem of carbon dioxide (CO2) release. This resulted in the development of a process to convert waste biomass into charcoal, that when applied in agricultural operations as biochar, captures more atmospheric CO2 than it produces.
‘Today, Carbonscape is pioneering the use of microwave technology in a series of patented processes that refine low cost biomass such as waste saw dust from timber processors into valuable finished products. These finished products are:
Activated Carbon
Charcoal and Biochar
Bio-oil and Fine chemicals
Syngas
Carbonscape’s technology exploits the benefits of lower costs associated with cheaper inputs, higher heating efficiencies and faster processing times as compared to traditional techniques. Furthermore, Carbonscape’s process allows for a high degree of customization and the ability to process various types of feedstock.
‘In short, Carbonscape derives economic benefit whilst simultaneously aiding our planet through patented technology. It is the epitome of clean business, creating a winning combination of producing valuable products as well as a better and more sustainable environment.’
Ok, got that? Dr. Chris Turney has developed a new way of making … what … charcoal! Don’t cook that wood in your stove. No, do it the modern way; pop it in your microwave. Just make certain your microwave has a browning function. Genius, I tell you. But, before you’re ready to slap down several big ones on this surefire, lucrative, investment, be forewarned that savvy and connected investors have beaten a path to Carbonscape’s door. Yeah, it will be with your money after all, like it or not, and my guess it’ll be more a not like it, than a like it, since the likelihood you get a return on your forcibly (i.e. tax) extracted money will be just as likely as Santa Claus actually exists. How do I know this? Here it is:
‘Our main links to Government funders and private industry associates are as follows:
Ministry of Science & Innovation
Ministry of Agriculture & Fisheries
New Zealand Trade & Enterprise
Foundation of Research, Science & Technology
FertilizerNZ
The Rutherford Innovation Fund’
Look at that list. Did anybody harbor a thought that government funding wasn’t involved in this enterprise? The only possible non-government fund was from Rutherford which sounds suspiciously like one of those pesty foundations but I couldn’t verify that since I couldn’t open the linked website.
So, we have a climate scientist; taking a stupid trip to Antarctica to ‘prove’ climate change; a trip that will end up being funded by governments to and fro; and directly or indirectly to support a business solely existing because of the meme of climate change; with the primary investors being, well, government.
I’d say if we can’t return to the moon, maybe we can send Chris Turney there. As well as quite a few other asstrolenauts (did I misspell that?).
Don says:
January 5, 2014 at 11:09 am
/Sarc on: My proposed screenplay was going to be a feature film. Now it appears it will be a mini-series, as the chapters on the Polar Star (due 12 Jan.) rescue and uncovering the cover-up have yet to be written./
*****************************************************
Don, do you have a working title yet? How about using the “Carry On” monika. “Carry On Irony”, “Carry On Turkey” , “Carry On CAGW” perhaps. Over to you…
Question – who paid for Turney’s wife and kids?
My understanding being that tourist berths were on the order of $8k each. So, either Turney’s family paid that out of their own pocket, or they passed themselves off as “scientists” and their berth’s were paid for out of funding for the science portion of the trip.
If the latter, then…well, a word that would send me to moderation comes to mind. The former is certainly possible if Turney is very well off, but one wife and 2 kids at $8k each comes to a smidge more than most university professors can afford for a summer holiday.
Watching the Lateline video, I was amazed at the comic brashness of Turney. A real gung-ho attitude which reminds me of the rashness of George Custer at the Little Bighorn. Perhaps he is now Custard Turkey or Turkey Custard—I can’t decide.
or they passed themselves off as “scientists”
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Of course, given Turney’s claim that carbon accounts for a greenhouse effect double that greenhouse effect in total, distinguishing between a teenage son and a scientist is probably not in Turney’s skill set.
Ric,
Chris Turney tweets contained the coordinates of the ship on multiple occasions.
You can also find the coordinates by clicking on the interactive map points on the http://www.spiritofmawson.com website. It shows them trying to move out of the area after the Hodgeman’s Islet storm hits them with several different little jags. But not much movement at all.
For example-
TWEET-Chris Turney @ur momisuglyProfChrisTurney 20 Dec
http://fms.ws/E-mLk Made it back to the ship. V happy!!@ur momisugly -2degC
If you click on the link-fms.ws/E-mLk part, it pops up a map on Findmespot.com with a pin and a tab that says:
(POP UP)
Made it back to the ship. V happy!!@ur momisugly -2degC
Device Name: AAE_Connect
Latitude: -66.49207
Longitude: 141.81169
This is the day they got back to the boat anchored to the West of Commonwealth Bay after the Mawson Huts trip.
*********************************
TWEET-Chris Turney @ur momisuglyProfChrisTurney 21 Dec
http://fms.ws/E_LuU Off to Mertz Glacier.-2degC, -11degC wind ch
(POP UP)
Off to Mertz Glacier.-2degC, -11degC wind ch
Device Name: AAE_Connect
Latitude: -65.76899
Longitude: 142.18417
As they head for the Mertz Glacier-which means they aren’t anchored in it’s polynya yet, they are just leaving the CB area.
************************************************
TWEET-Chris Turney @ur momisuglyProfChrisTurney 22 Dec
http://fms.ws/F0K8_ Blizzard. -4degC, -15degC wind chill.
(POP UP)
Device Name: Chris Turney @ur momisuglyProfChrisTurney 22 Dec
http://fms.ws/F0K8_ Blizzard. -4degC, -15degC wind chill.
Expand _Connect
Latitude: -65.76899
Longitude: 142.18417
This is where they anchored for the day trip to take samples etc at Hodgeman’s Islets. The blizzard hits them in the late afternoon of this day. They make it roughly a KM that night between 1:30 am (ish) and 9:30 am the next morning according to Janet Rice.
*******************************************************
TWEET-Chris Turney @ur momisuglyProfChrisTurney 25 Dec
http://fms.ws/F1gYd Heavy ice but all well-windy! #spiritofmawson
(POP UP)
Heavy ice but all well-windy! #spiritofmawson
Device Name: AAE_Connect
Latitude: -66.86300
Longitude: 144.31505
I keep seeing the figure of ~$8K per berth for the “scien-tourists”. I understood from the various promo vids that the first leg of the “expedition” might start at that price, but the second leg – which was the more entertaining one – was priced at $16K and up. As I remember, the second leg berths sold out fairly quickly.
I don’t see much problem with the descriptions of the locations the AS has been. It is very helpful to look at satellite images of the area. Hope this link works:
https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/?switch=antarctic&products=baselayers,MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor&time=2014-01-05&map=-2048000,,,3072000
You should be looking at all of Antarctica. From this image, zoom in to the bottom just right of center. Then click on the date scale at the bottom and select Jan 3, 2014. This is a fairly clear day that shows the current picture of the ice conditions. You should see 2 polynyas in the ice (and a third larger one to the right). The left one is just off Commonwealth Bay. If you zoom in further you will see a large rectangular iceberg. This is B09B, just off the coast of Commonwealth Bay.
Now on the date scale select Dec 20, 2013. It isn’t quite as clear but you can see both of these polynyas are now open to the sea. The AS could have been in this polynya, anchored, which would put it about 40 miles off-shore from Mawson’s Hut. This would match the quote:
“The Akademik Shokalskiy had been at anchor 40 miles off Mawson’s Hut on Cape Denison, Antarctica with 74 people when it departed for the Mertz glacier.”
They would have to cross about 40 miles of fast ice to get to the hut. Sounds dangerous to me, but what do I know. Then the AS could have moved out of the polynya and headed east (left) toward the open water off the Mertz Glacier. This is where the tongue was broken off by B09B in 2010. This area is free of ice.
This quote appears OK to me:
“The journey today is to move east around the large B9B iceberg. This will take all day and into tomorrow, hopefully placing us at the shore edge of the Mertz glacier and Stillwell Island area, and providing the opportunity to step onto the Antarctic continent.”
They leave the polynya and move east to Mertz, which is ice free, and get close to the coast.
Just east of Mertz (right) is a land protrusion called Cape de la Motte (AKA the Stillwell Island area). This is where the AS is stuck. Advance the dates and you can see what happened to the ice across the cape. Good, relatively clear dates are 12/07, 12/15, 12/16, 12/19, 12/20, 12/25. 01/02.
The area off Cape de la Motte freezes up sometime between 12/20 and 12/25.
I’m looking at some images of various climate types….and there’s facial expression that turns up quite often…I call it “drama-face”. Chris Turney makes one in the cap at the top of this post, as does Christina Figueres back at COP while visiting a bamboo bicycle display with Ban Ki Moon, who seems also to be making the face:
http://bolerhead.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Figueres-drama-face.jpg
http://bolerhead.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/turney-drama-face.jpg
This face always seems to be made when there is some form of embellishment being asserted in the speaker’s dialogue….and it really is rather comical to see.
Steve – Thinking “Carry On Professor” would work well in that vein. There could be a lot of comedic action available to fill out a script. But, I really wanted an action-adventure sort of film. Action shots of the Polar Star breaking ice with those CO2 belching turbines wound up to max hp. Nice. (And the Polar Sea could be rented cheap for interior shots.) Anthony Watts would portray himself, and I want a cameo as “scientific assistant.” Unfortunately, don’t have the time nor skill to flesh the script out. I’m just sitting in my kitchen dumfounded watching this unfold over the last two weeks. Had this happened fifteen years ago, they may have gotten away with it.
Clay,
They reach Antarctica and anchor above Commonwealth Bay. The next day they scout routes into Mawson’s Huts. The ship gets caught in a break out. Chris Turney tweets-
Chris Turney @ProfChrisTurney 18 Dec
“Ship just caught in middle of massive sea ice breakout. Incredible how fast. Huge area cracked up in 30 mins!”
They move the ship, but it’s still above Commonwealth Bay. Then they travel over fast ice on the Argos to Mawson’s Hut on Cape Denison. The round trip took them two-to two and a half- days-one day in, and one day out.
The next day they leave for “Mertz glacier”. They reach Hodgeman’s Islets. They get off to do sciencey stuff. The captain demands they get back on board as the storm hits. Chris Turney films stormy video stating they are anchored at the base of the Mertz glacier (which they clearly were not). People are still on the ice and in the water behind him in the video. They try to leave the area-get stuck in the ice. They travel less than 1k that night according to Janet Rice before the ship is solidly stuck. They bash around for a day or so attempting to free themselves. But they don’t move far.
According to the stats I can find, and Ric’s handy dandy calculater, the Mertz Glacier tongue and the Hodgeman Islets are 27 nautical miles apart. There is NO WAY that the ship got from Mertz to the spot they were stuck in (27 nautical miles) in the storm they were in. They moved several miles, if that much.
When I go to your link I’m looking for answers to the following-
Was the polynya at the base of the Mertz glacier tongue 27 nautical miles wide-was there 27 nautical miles of OPEN WATER between Mertz and Hodgeman Islets with NO “sea/pack ice” anywhere out to sea close to that area that could have blown in rapidly and pinned them in? If there’s ICE in those images, Turney is toast. We already know he missed the base of Mertz by 27 nautical miles.
I keep seeing posts about this team’s plan to plant 800-5000 Kauri trees in New Zealand to offset their carbon footprint. While this is worthy (Planting trees, not for the carbon offset boondoggle), the tree of choise is wrong IMO. Kauri are, usually, over their lives very slow growing and can be as old as 2000 years or more. They are a native tree and thus are protected. So once planted, they are their for their natural life and can never be “farmed”. The Environment Court can issue severe fines for people who remove native plants from land, even if that land is their own. So, all their lives sitting there converting CO2 to wood and oxygen, they then die, releasing CO2/CH4 back to the atmosphere when they decay. The other issue is the sheer area required for them to grow. Tane Mahuta (The largest living Kauri in NZ) has a girth of ~14m at the base and is ~50m tall. Scale that up to 800-5000 individuals. Rather pointless if the objective is to remove CO2 (Sins) from the atmosphere permanently. If they want to plant any tree to offset their emissions they should plant some existing imported exotic such as Radiata Pine. Fast growing and can be farmed to make building materials, paper etc.
This is just a typical publicity stunt to pluck heart strings without really thinking about what they are saying.
Thanks SO much for that link Clay. I’m very visual and that helps SO much. And technically he could very well have been within the “polynya” that covers the whole area between Denison and the Glacier, because it’s huge. I’ll accept that.
But I see it, no matter what day between Dec 19th and Dec 23 I put the A.S. rounding Cape Denison, the iceberg B9B sitting at the end of it, and the pack ice around it, and entering the openish water between Denison and the base of the glacier, I see still see tons (literally) of pack ice, and floating icebergs to the east and south of there that Turney should have been able to see, or have had it sent to him on satellite image, that he KNEW could shift and pin them in FAST. Especially after his repeated comments about the south east winds pushing an iceberg and pack ice into Commonwealth Bay. AND he WATCHED the pack ice crack up and surround the ship just days before while they were anchored near Commonwealth Bay. He HAD to have known a “massive breakout” was possible, inevitable.
We know he never reached the actual BASE of Mertz glacier-the coordinates simply never place the ship there, there’s no photos of any kind of it, Alok Jha says they never made it, and it’s 27 nautical miles from the Hodgeman Islets to the base of the glacier. They attempt to leave the area at the end of the day they spent at Hodgeman.
If the coordinates for Hodgeman Islands from GNIS are correct, they lie just off the coast between Cape de la Motte and Watt Bay. This area had at least 5-7 miles of fast ice along the coast at a minimum, so that is as close as they could ever get in the AS. And this would be around 30 miles West of Mertz Glacier.
The whole area off Mertz to Cape de la Motte is a large open polynya. The most ice free day appears to be 12/20 and the weather is fairly clear a few days before. After 12/20 through 12/25 storms came in, though I can’t tell what day the blizzard hit. The 12/25 image is still cloudy but shows the change in ice: Cape de la Motte and West is iced in; as is the AS.
I’d say they never went to the base of Mertz Glacier tongue but instead were West of this off Cape de la Motte. Possibly they passed by on the way to the Cape, but that would be an unnecessary 25 mile loop east. The AS appears to be stuck at least 25 miles West of Mertz.
Steve McIntyre is correct; there are definitely time problems with the posted logs and they seem to jumble up locations. They cannot be moving east around B09B on 12/22 and also be at the base of Mertz Glacier and the blizzard starting all the same day.
Aphan –
i don’t know your time zone – maybe u have gone to bed by now – but am hoping u will listen to all this one which i posted earlier –
26 mins 30 secs: 24 Dec: AUDIO: BBC: Discovery: The Return to Mawson’s Antarctic
Duration: 29 minutes
First broadcast: Monday 23 December 2013
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p01n9gcv/Discovery_The_Return_to_Mawsons_Antarctica_Part_Two/
i feel this has vital info for your investigations.
if anyone knows how to save this audio, i’d be grateful if they would do so, as bbc only keeps these files available for a limited time, usually. thanx to anyone who can assist.
Turneys claim that the sea ice conditions in Commonwealth bay were not predictable defies credibility. Someone else posted this on another thread on WUWT but the original re-enactment in 2011 was cancelled because of the ice conditions in Commonwealth bay following the collision of the iceberg and the Mertz glacier tongue.
The leaders of the prior 2011 voyages were responsible and prepared and avoided getting the ships stuck in ice and avoided disrupting genuine scientific programs, this 2013/14 expedition not so much.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-12-21/mawson-expedition-stalled/3742012
Perhaps one of the reason for the “Mayday” vs a “PanPan” call may have been the hull damage caused by the ice. Anthony mentions it in the KUSI interview below.
Didn’t find much info but I remember reading it was above the water line and something about 1.5 meters.
I suspect it was very load with much grinding and banging as ice surrounded the ship. Add that the ice seems to have the ship pushed slightly out of the water and listing slightly. Add some hull damage, even if just to armoring plates (I believe I read the ship is ice hardened) and one might see where an initially panicked crew might send a Mayday.
http://www.kusi.com/video?clipId=9686594&autostart=true
Clay: try setting your satellite image to “corrected reflectance 3-6-7” and look at December 18 to 24. This setting lets you see a bit better through the clouds and you can see the ship was in trouble from the start. It looks like the ice was already closing in around them on the 19th of December. While the amount of ice behind them varied, it appears that they had to push through ice to get to the polynya and then got stuck as the ice thickened and moved but it was always there. The ship probably followed the thinnest areas but it looks like it shifted and closed the ship in.
Thanks for the link, Clay. Most illuminating.
That’s a video worth archiving. My goodness, what an arrogant man.
Talking about choosing the right team! LOL
It was all about Turney. Well, now we know what he really is made of. He is a complete bag of air. I hope this trip will haunt him for the rest of his life, in his science and reliablity.
Funny how this video is presenting the trip as purely scientific, funded by tourists. And how it is now portrayed as pure tourism, with some scientific activity on the fly.
Just a tangential question: given the total incompetence demonstrated by the “scientists”, why didn’t the captain of the ship intervene and over-ride their stupidity?
Seems to me that the captain has final and over-riding authority over anything concerning his ship.
What happened here?
davidmhoffer says:
January 5, 2014 at 7:16 pm
“Question – who paid for Turney’s wife and kids?
My understanding being that tourist berths were on the order of $8k each. So, either Turney’s family paid that out of their own pocket, or they passed themselves off as “scientists” and their berth’s were paid for out of funding for the science portion of the trip.”
Mrs Turney (see http://www.spiritofmawson.com/aae-science-leaders/) is listed among the “AAE Science Team” as:
“Annette Turney
Leg Two – Education
Annette is a teacher and educational researcher based in New South Wales, Australia. Originally from the UK, Annette taught for a number of years before moving out to Australia. Her great interest in exploring how we communicate led her to undertake a MEd Language and Literacy at University of Wollongong followed by an MSc in Educational Research focusing on multimedia education at University of Exeter, UK. Annette is passionate about getting students engaged in the world around them and developing critical thinking skills. On the expedition Annette will be coordinating the development of educational materials for schools.”
So, going to Antarctica to do some research in Education, I suspect her trip would be fully paid.
The cost for the children – 12 years old daughter and a few years older son – is little cheaper than what you quoted. On Leg1, for a cabin ranked ‘Superior’ (one bunk with one upper and one lower berth), that figure is only $5,750 per person, or $6,750 pp for one ranked ‘Superior Plus (two lower berths)’. I am not sure whether the children were on board for that leg of the Expedition.
For Leg2, the same figures are $16,900 pp and $17,500 pp. The only other option would be a ‘Mini Suite” which was priced at $18,900 pp ($7,500 pp on Leg1). Details taken from here:
http://www.spiritofmawson.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/AAE_Leg1_itinerary_02.pdf and
http://www.spiritofmawson.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/AAE_Leg2_itinerary_02.pdf
Gary Pearse says:
“Scott’s party WALKED to the pole in 1912 for goodness sake, and almost made it to within a few kms of a vital cache of food and fuel on the way back that would have saved several of them. He did this remarkable feat without the benefit of charts, or any idea of how extreme the elevations, temperatures, winds, etc. could be.”
Nonsense. Shackleton had followed exactly the same route and mapped it (including elevation and weather) in 1908/09. He also found the best route up to the plateau along the Beardmore glacier. However Shackleton, unlike Scott, had the sense to turn back (at 88,4 degrees south) when he realised that he had insufficient supplies to go all the way to the pole and back. The only “uncharted” stretch Scott had to do was 100 miles of featureless ice.
Actually it was Amundsen who was in uncharted territory and had to find a new route across the Transantarctic mountains.
“Someone else posted this on another thread on WUWT but the original re-enactment in 2011 was cancelled because of the ice conditions in Commonwealth bay following the collision of the iceberg and the Mertz glacier tongue”
The difficult ice conditions in Commonwealth Bay in recent years are common knowledge. “Mawson’s Hut Foundation” which is trying to maintain said hut had to cancel expeditions both 2011/12 and 2012/13. Apparently they didn’t even bother to try this year
(http://www.mawsons-huts.org.au/news/expedition-cancelled-for-2012-13/)
One hypothesis Professor Turney did manage to prove was that penguins are not the only flightless birds in the Antarctic.
http://i43.tinypic.com/2uz6n7o.jpg
Does that moron ever stop laughing? That is a well known sign of deception, by every police interrogator on the planet. What could he be hiding?