
Today, while shopping at lunchtime for some last minute year end supplies, I got one of the strangest cell-phone calls ever. It was from my friend John Coleman, the founder of the Weather Channel and Chief meteorologist at KUSI-TV in San Diego. He was calling via cell phone from his car, and he was on his way into the TV station early.
He started off by saying, “Anthony, we have a really strange situation here”.
Then to my surprise, he relayed a conversation he had just had; a person on the Akademik Shokalskiy had reached out, because they didn’t have adequate weather data on-board. At first, I thought John was pulling my leg, but then as he gave more details, I realized he was serious.
What had happened was that the US Coast Guard had received a message from the ship, requesting weather and wind information for Antarctica. That got relayed to someone at the Scripps oceanographic Institute in San Diego, and it went to John’s weekend KUSI meteorologist Dave Scott. Dave had worked with a scientist who is now on the US Coast Guard IceBreaker Polar Star, and they had logged the request for weather for forecast data from Akademik Shokalskiy. That’s how all this got started.
The message was that they needed better weather information on the ship than they had, specifically about wind and how it might affect the breakup of sea ice. John asked me to gather everything I had on the area and send it, and also to help him contact Joe D’Aleo of WeatherBell Analytics, because somehow John’s cellphone had gotten stuck into some sort of “private caller” mode and Joe wasn’t answering his phone due to how the incoming call looked.
My first thought was that no matter how much we’ve been criticizing the expedition for its silliness, that if such a request had reached all the way from Antarctica to me, I’d do everything I could to help.
I told John “give me 15 minutes”, which was about the time I’d need to get out of COSTCO and get back to my office and send along some things I knew would help.
I immediately called Joe D’Aleo at WeatherBell, who was as incredulous as I at the request, and asked him to call John Coleman right away. I explained to him that we had to remember that we were dealing with a Russian ship, not a military ship, but a charter vessel and they likely didn’t have all the tools that American meteorologists had and may not even know where to look for better data. I also pointed out that the Australian scientists on-board were climatologists, and not operational weather forecasters, and finding this sort of weather data probably wasn’t in their skill set.
Joe started working from the WeatherBell end, I finished my shopping and headed back to the office. As I drove, I started thinking about the situation with the ship there. They had wind compressing the ice into shore, with the Akademik Shokalskiy in the middle, and the wind wasn’t changing. They needed a wind shift in order to ease the pressure on the ice but they had no idea when that might happen. It was a waiting game, and as we know, the longer a ship remains trapped in sea ice, the greater its chances of having a hull breach due to the pressure.
I knew just what to send, because it was something that had been discussed several times by commenters on WUWT.
When I got back to the office, I no more than pulled up the bookmark and press send on the email with a brief description of the operational weather data model that covered the region and John Coleman was on the phone again. He asked me to talk to Dave Scott and explain what I had just sent over. I called Dave immediately and relayed the email.
I sent a live link that provided this image of Antarctica, and I noted in a Tweet about the same time:
Just had a request for Antarctic wind and FC data come up via Scripps from #spiritofmawson ship. KUSI, WeatherBell, WUWT all happy to help.
— Watts Up With That (@wattsupwiththat) December 31, 2013
This map shows winds for area ship is trapped in. Waiting for katabatic winds to return which will clear ice. pic.twitter.com/XqCU6NfWWK
— Watts Up With That (@wattsupwiththat) December 31, 2013
Dave listened intently to my explanation and then thanked me saying “this is exactly what we need”. I then started to do some research into the extensive library of operational forecast products put together by our friend Dr. Ryan Maue of WeatherBell which can be seen at http://models.weatherbell.com/ About that same time I get a new email from Joe D’Aleo, and he had sorted out the maps needed and had sent an email to John, Dave, and I.
In a couple of minutes John Coleman was back on the phone to me, he wanted my assessment of the maps. I had looked at what was happening and saw what I thought might be an opening in 7-8 days based on the forecast graphics from WeatherBell, where the winds would shift to offshore in the area where Akademik Shokalskiy was stuck. Like we discussed in the WUWT post yesterday Polynyas are very important for marine life and cooling the oceans I had hoped that a coastal polyna might open up near the ship. We also discussed the possibility of a low pressure system passing nearby that might help break up the ice. I didn’t express much hope for that.
The problem is that they are in a catch-22 now, they need strong offshore winds to help blow the sea ice out to open water, but at the same time they need calm or light winds for a safe helicopter rescue.
John Coleman and Dave Scott put together a video news story which ran on the KUSI 6PM News tonight. I was interviewed for the story, and you can watch it here:
http://www.kusi.com/video?clipId=9686594&autostart=true
Watching the wind is the key to the way out of the situation the Akademik Shokalskiy is in. This near real-time wind model is worth watching, and it updates every three hours with new observations, click on the image to start it.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=144.30,-66.68,3000
Note the green circle marker, which is the approximate location the Akademik Shokalskiy is at. Winds are running parallel to the coast, and pushing ice up against the edge of the Commonwealth Bay.
Despite the irony and folly of the situation, I’m sure readers will join me in the hope that everyone makes it off the ship safely, whether it is by helicopter or by the ship being freed from the ice.
Related articles
- All scientists and passengers to be taken off ship stuck in Antarctic Ice (wattsupwiththat.com)
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Anthony, please remind John Coleman to say Antarctic. In his fine report, at times he said Arctic instead.
Congratulations on taking the high road once again Anthony, and offering any assistance to help protect human lives.
I have just sent congratulations to KUSI and John Coleman for their journalistic integrity in reporting on the AGW party cruise getting stuck in the disappearing polar ice. I don’t know who paid for this trip (and I doubt we will every know how much it cost to rescue them) but if there is a fund to send them again next year i’ll gladly contribute a few dollarss! Who says “AGW realists” don’t get Christmas presents!
On a side note may mention that they left from Invercargil in NZ, home of the notorious Bluff Oyster – no doubt that all involved feasted on these before setting sail for the deep south so you can be rest assured they will find an outlet during those long cold antarctic days as they sit and wait to be rescued.
[snip – sorry, we don’t allow content from Internet stalker “Sou” aka Miriam O’Brien, here anymore. She’s entitled to her opinion, and she has her own blog to spew it with. I note nobody contacted her for information. – Anthony]
Alan Watt, Climate Denialist Level 7 says:
January 1, 2014 at 10:14 am
[1] How can a ship carry a helicopter which can’t fly over water?
[2] The helicopter doesn’t need to actually land on ice in the sense of apply its full weight;
———————————————————————-
[1] – The captain was quoted as saying he could not fly on open water without floats. You comment that this rule is limited to commercial tours but in fact it applies whenever passengers (“non-essential personnel”) are onboard. Having two engines does get around the rule to some extent but the KA-32 is a very special aircraft with counter-rotating blades and not a single main / tail rotor. It may not be able to climb at above the minimum specification required for 2 engine aircraft. I assume the captain of the ship knows this and that explains his comment. Also there are different rules for flying over open water. Essential personnel (yes) versus passengers (no). I do know them – I hope I didn’t give you the impression I did. I’m involved with helicopters but not for search and rescue or ferry service so we only have essential personnel onboard. There are additional rules that include flotation devices. I’m not sure whether life jackets (I assume from the boat) qualify as floatation suits (one piece with zipper) that may be required by the crew and all passengers when flying over more than a few hundred meters of open water.
[2] – I’ve seen these helicopter rescues in the movies too. They usually use small R-44 or Bell 206 helicopters, with trained pilots and stunt men. Having 12 people climb aboard a 5 tonne helicopter while it is hovering at maximum rotation over moving pack ice seems rather dangerous to me. I’d like to watch that movie but I wouldn’t want to star in it. I expect the helicopter will set down on the pack ice, lower rotor speed and then have each person climb on board one after the other with help from the flight crew. Twelve people at 175 lbs each is literally a tonne of people. I hope the ice doesn’t move under the helicopter.
As I understand the captain of the Snow Dragon is waiting at the edge of the ice-field for the Aurora to pull alongside. Assuming the weather cooperates (good visibility and no wind) the helicopter will then set off for the stranded climate scientists who will journey down to the pack ice in groups of 12. If everything works out it should only take a few hours to make all the moves. Then the climate scientists will be transferred from the Snow Dragon to the Aurora and taken to even greater safety.
Oldseadog says: @ur momisugly January 1, 2014 at 2:49 am
En passant:
No you haven’t got it right.
The Captain got the ship to where she is at the moment, the “scientists” and passengers simply told the Captain what they would like to do and he tried to accommodate them. The passengers on a ship have no operational authority of any kind.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If what another commenter said is correct, people were out on the ice when the Captain relized he should beat feet away from the area. The scientist dragged their feet getting all their equipment back on board.
So the question is who had authority over the people not on the ship and did the Captain have the right to leave without them or to have his crew bodily toss them on board.
Again if this is true it would be why the Captain has not been ‘Interviewed’ live for the BBC and Gruaniad by the reporters on board.
For an alternate view, Voice of Russia has several articles: link and also link
janama says:
January 1, 2014 at 11:12 am
————————————————
Some accounts have the origin of the cruise from Bluff, NZ with the fog grounding the helicopter coming from Watt Bay.
Yet more irony.
I’m sure we all wish those in peril on the sea ice a safe return.
Might we hope for a safe well-chastened return? Such a costly
( to taxpayers) CAGW ‘research’ jaunt should at least offer
some return benefit to the public that pays for it..
Stuart Elliot says at January 1, 2014 at 9:48 am
But it has. This was a stunning defensive win. The propagandists spent a lot of money coming up with a combined Aussie BC, BBC and Guardian followed press junket. It was timed for the Festive period when there isn’t much news. It was a big push for 2014. And it failed.
The media has dropped it form the news. Even though a news story that goes wrong and ends up needing rescue is exciting and newsworthy.. even so they have dropped it.
Someone made that decision. They are embarrassed. And future propaganda projects will be harder to fund now.
If you are under siege you don’t need the besiegers to be routed. You just need to break the siege.
“what is their skill set? Dodgy stats analysis? Making up data? Creating mendacious propaganda? Writing meritless grants applications? Silencing opposing views by corrupting the peer review process?”
Pretty much, Alfred. 🙁
Soberly:
0. These people are adults, not children AFAIK;
1. The ‘organising minds’ of the expedition are heavily involved in promoting falsehoods which are perhaps already costing lives;
2. They play by different rules to you guys;
3. The game they are playing started out as collective-neurotic, ie characterised by self-fueling anxiety about the world;
4. Now they are being successfully challenged and refusing to step down, they are inevitably transitioning to a much more dangerous state for the rest of us, ie delusional psychosis;
5. This means they are truly starting to deny reality, eg seeing things that aren’t there (clear water), and bumping into things that are there (ice);
6. They will get better at doing this, and their strategies will increasingly and nakedly be based around ‘the big lie’;
7. It’s not going to get better, despite areas where sanity appears to be rearing it’s head at last (Australia);
8. A mosaic iron-curtain of news/information/knowledge domains will arise (the BBC is finding less and less that it can actually report on);
9. Maybe skeptics will find themselves labeled first as dissidents, then as lunatics, and marginalised Soviet-style.
10. Maybe none of this will happen, is happening – I think it’s interesting to imagine it, and just to remember that the first casualties of conflicts are often the good, whose goodness is simply used against them.
My wife says using ‘they’s and ‘them’s proves I’m the crazy one.
Alan Watt, Climate Denialist Level 7 says: @ur momisugly January 1, 2014 at 9:06 am
….Should I copyright this now?
>>>>>>>>>>>>
YES! ROTFLMAO….
“if these anti-rational warmists ever got to implement the anti-industrial policies they advocate, they would kill hundreds of millions of people”
That’s their goal, Hume. >:-(
Here’s a far better theme song for the tourists and crew: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UMV34CwNMY0
SAB, the crew and passengers on this ship could not have seen the ice and still been caught by it . Not unless they were all delusional form LSD in the water… and the crew are professionals.
They were caught out by the weather because they were unlucky. But the errors they made were these:
1. They went there claiming to be experts when they are clearly not.
2. They claimed to be doing valuable science when they are clearly hindering the real work being done at the Antarctic stations.
3. They claimed to be honouring Mawson when they were merely flippantly playing in a place where he endured great suffering.
It is the Climateers’ reputation for integrity that is destroyed here, not their sanity.
Although, I suppose, they may have deceived themselves into thinking that sea-ice volume was constant or declining so greater extent meant thinner… but would the Captain believe such speculation? Still that potential error is worth researching in their stated plans.
Friends:
Our rightly esteemed host and Joe D’Aleo deserve much credit for their expertise and honourable use of it. Nobody can know to what degree their prompt response to a request for information will have contributed to the saving of lives. Their action has earned them additional respect.
However, some people have provided posts which assume other agencies were not also contacted for information. Some of these assumptions may be correct (e.g. would any sensible person ask SkS for information that may be life critical?). However, it is not known that other agencies were not contacted (e.g. it seems likely that UK Met. Office would have been asked).
Let us congratulate our host and Joe D’Aleo but not make assumptions about who was not contacted. Such assumptions could become embarrassing if shown to be untrue.
Richard
Steve from Rockwood says: January 1, 2014 at 11:31 am
OK, if we define passengers to be anyone not directly involved with the operation of the aircraft then the CFR might apply in this case (are CFRs just US/FAA, or do they apply to other countries operating in international waters?) But I can’t believe those regulations apply to emergency evacuations. When life is threatened you accept a normally forbidden lesser risk to avoid the much more likely greater loss resulting from doing nothing. See “doctrine of competing harms”.
Jean Parisot says: @ur momisugly January 1, 2014 at 10:17 am
I thought I read that they had a hull breach?…
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Yes they had a hull breach 1.8 meters (~6 feet) above sea line. Not something to make you feel all warm and fuzzy when in rough seas.
bbc world service spoke to Luck-Baker overnight australia time. missed the start, but finished by asking him if – when it’s all over – the Expedition will be seen as a failure or a success. Luck-Baker pauses briefly to feign careful consideration, but says “as a success” because some particular penguin species’ numbers are greatlly depleted. can’t find it online as yet.
bbc documents the Luck-Baker info:
31 Dec: BBC: Rescue for Antarctic ice-bound ship under threat
However, the captain of the Xue Long has told the Shokalskiy that he is keeping his vessel in a “holding position”.
The Aurora Australis, is now understood to be planning to carve through the dense thick pack to assist the Xue Long…
Under the initial plan, the remaining crew members would have stayed on board until another, more powerful US icebreaker arrived in up to 10 days’ time, the BBC’s Andrew Luck-Baker reports from on board the Akademik Shokalskiy
However, it may now be that all of those on board may have to wait for the US icebreaker, the Polar Star, he adds…
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25558276
Gail Combs:
If I were the Captain I would refuse to be interviewed by anyone.
Editing can make anything you say mean the opposite of what you meant.
Once bitten twice shy.
should have made it clear Luck-Baker was suggesting the depletion in the numbers of the particular penguin species was discovered by the scientists on board, with the inference CC did it.
RoHa on January 1, 2014 at 12:28 am
” In the 1930s there was a lamppost in Invercargill which had the distinction of being The Most Southerly Lamppost in the British Empire.”
I’m sure the dogs there were mightily relieved by that. Didn’t they have lampposts in Port Stanley then ?
Alan Watt, Climate Denialist Level 7 says:
January 1, 2014 at 12:07 pm
——————————————————–
Most countries recognize US/FAA regulations. Canada has its own. Some European countries have even stricter regulations. Mexico recognizes both Canada and US regulations. I’m not sure how things work on international waters but I suspect Chinese crews would use their own regulations as American crews would use theirs. Helicopter pilots cannot automatically fly into other countries air jurisdictions. In Mexico, for example, our Canadian pilot could not fly without a Mexican pilot also at the controls (so we required dual control aircraft).
We are not in an emergency situation yet. No lives are eminently at risk. The course of action therefore is to stay put while normal procedures are put in play. Hopping into a helicopter that is not equipped to evacuate people over open water would lead to serious consequences for the crew if anything really bad were to happen. So they stick to procedure.
But what if the hull of the ship was suddenly crushed and the ship began sinking? The climate scientists would drop their martinis and get out onto the pack ice and the Chinese helicopter would fly over at top speed – damn the poor visibility and lack of flotation suits, those are just rules. And while the ship sank beneath the icy waves the head of the expedition would shake his head and say “It really was worse than I thought.”
But unless that happens we will have a drawn out “safe” evacuation. One where the climate scientists slowly run out of booze while the Chinese ice-breaker waits ever patiently on the edge of the ice sheet. As someone once said “Adventure is when you don’t stick to the plan.”
No lives are imminently at risk either 🙂
Great story!