Today, while shopping at lunchtime for some last minute year end supplies, I got one of the strangest cell-phone calls ever. It was from my friend John Coleman, the founder of the Weather Channel and Chief meteorologist at KUSI-TV in San Diego. He was calling via cell phone from his car, and he was on his way into the TV station early.
He started off by saying, “Anthony, we have a really strange situation here”.
Then to my surprise, he relayed a conversation he had just had; a person on the Akademik Shokalskiy had reached out, because they didn’t have adequate weather data on-board. At first, I thought John was pulling my leg, but then as he gave more details, I realized he was serious.
What had happened was that the US Coast Guard had received a message from the ship, requesting weather and wind information for Antarctica. That got relayed to someone at the Scripps oceanographic Institute in San Diego, and it went to John’s weekend KUSI meteorologist Dave Scott. Dave had worked with a scientist who is now on the US Coast Guard IceBreaker Polar Star, and they had logged the request for weather for forecast data from Akademik Shokalskiy. That’s how all this got started.
The message was that they needed better weather information on the ship than they had, specifically about wind and how it might affect the breakup of sea ice. John asked me to gather everything I had on the area and send it, and also to help him contact Joe D’Aleo of WeatherBell Analytics, because somehow John’s cellphone had gotten stuck into some sort of “private caller” mode and Joe wasn’t answering his phone due to how the incoming call looked.
My first thought was that no matter how much we’ve been criticizing the expedition for its silliness, that if such a request had reached all the way from Antarctica to me, I’d do everything I could to help.
I told John “give me 15 minutes”, which was about the time I’d need to get out of COSTCO and get back to my office and send along some things I knew would help.
I immediately called Joe D’Aleo at WeatherBell, who was as incredulous as I at the request, and asked him to call John Coleman right away. I explained to him that we had to remember that we were dealing with a Russian ship, not a military ship, but a charter vessel and they likely didn’t have all the tools that American meteorologists had and may not even know where to look for better data. I also pointed out that the Australian scientists on-board were climatologists, and not operational weather forecasters, and finding this sort of weather data probably wasn’t in their skill set.
Joe started working from the WeatherBell end, I finished my shopping and headed back to the office. As I drove, I started thinking about the situation with the ship there. They had wind compressing the ice into shore, with the Akademik Shokalskiy in the middle, and the wind wasn’t changing. They needed a wind shift in order to ease the pressure on the ice but they had no idea when that might happen. It was a waiting game, and as we know, the longer a ship remains trapped in sea ice, the greater its chances of having a hull breach due to the pressure.
I knew just what to send, because it was something that had been discussed several times by commenters on WUWT.
When I got back to the office, I no more than pulled up the bookmark and press send on the email with a brief description of the operational weather data model that covered the region and John Coleman was on the phone again. He asked me to talk to Dave Scott and explain what I had just sent over. I called Dave immediately and relayed the email.
I sent a live link that provided this image of Antarctica, and I noted in a Tweet about the same time:
Just had a request for Antarctic wind and FC data come up via Scripps from #spiritofmawson ship. KUSI, WeatherBell, WUWT all happy to help.
— Watts Up With That (@wattsupwiththat) December 31, 2013
This map shows winds for area ship is trapped in. Waiting for katabatic winds to return which will clear ice. pic.twitter.com/XqCU6NfWWK
— Watts Up With That (@wattsupwiththat) December 31, 2013
Dave listened intently to my explanation and then thanked me saying “this is exactly what we need”. I then started to do some research into the extensive library of operational forecast products put together by our friend Dr. Ryan Maue of WeatherBell which can be seen at http://models.weatherbell.com/ About that same time I get a new email from Joe D’Aleo, and he had sorted out the maps needed and had sent an email to John, Dave, and I.
In a couple of minutes John Coleman was back on the phone to me, he wanted my assessment of the maps. I had looked at what was happening and saw what I thought might be an opening in 7-8 days based on the forecast graphics from WeatherBell, where the winds would shift to offshore in the area where Akademik Shokalskiy was stuck. Like we discussed in the WUWT post yesterday Polynyas are very important for marine life and cooling the oceans I had hoped that a coastal polyna might open up near the ship. We also discussed the possibility of a low pressure system passing nearby that might help break up the ice. I didn’t express much hope for that.
The problem is that they are in a catch-22 now, they need strong offshore winds to help blow the sea ice out to open water, but at the same time they need calm or light winds for a safe helicopter rescue.
John Coleman and Dave Scott put together a video news story which ran on the KUSI 6PM News tonight. I was interviewed for the story, and you can watch it here:
http://www.kusi.com/video?clipId=9686594&autostart=true
Watching the wind is the key to the way out of the situation the Akademik Shokalskiy is in. This near real-time wind model is worth watching, and it updates every three hours with new observations, click on the image to start it.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=144.30,-66.68,3000
Note the green circle marker, which is the approximate location the Akademik Shokalskiy is at. Winds are running parallel to the coast, and pushing ice up against the edge of the Commonwealth Bay.
Despite the irony and folly of the situation, I’m sure readers will join me in the hope that everyone makes it off the ship safely, whether it is by helicopter or by the ship being freed from the ice.
Related articles
- All scientists and passengers to be taken off ship stuck in Antarctic Ice (wattsupwiththat.com)
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Kitefreak, a word to the wise. If you are going to describe yourself as a “grammar nazi” and don’t want to make an utter fool of yourself, please learn the difference between the subject of a sentence and the object of a preposition.
And to the rest of us dancing around the campfire and celebrating what we imagine is some sort of setback for the image of CAGW, not so fast. While the irony is clear and delicious for us skeptics, nothing much has changed in the popular media and amongst the vested interests.
May the rescuers be safe, and may the rescued first have an uncomfortable wait, long enough for them to gain some new perspectives.
Tom says:
January 1, 2014 at 9:00 am
Latest AIS data (01-01-2014 14:00 UTC) shows the Polar Star is on course 254° at 7.6 knots, still heading for Sydney. Actually the previous link shows the most recent 3 days of itinerary data, usually midday reports; the most recent report here from 24 minutes ago (17:16 UTC) shows position is -33.00694 / 155.3582 , course 256° at 6.7 knots. Still heading to Sydney about 212 nautical miles (393 km) out — about 30 hours at present course and speed.
While I agree regarding the irony so thickly evident in comparison to the ice, I would caution any correlation with liberal beliefs in general. Why? Way too many ready examples of the foolishness often seen in folks who have conservative views. I’ve seen it up close and personal and it is just as bad. So much so that the only people conservatives have to fear are themselves.
Darwin….
Alan Watt, Climate Denialist Level 7 says:
January 1, 2014 at 9:06 am
“I’ll start the New Year with a bet it will become a Hollywood script about heroic climate researchers facing hostile government agencies under the influence of multinational oil companies struggling to finance their own research expedition from bake sale proceeds. ….”
FANTASTIC screenplay, Alan Watt! I was on the edge of my seat for every sentence! Especially loved the part about harvesting algae for bio-fuel.
As we speak, James Cameron is kicking himself for not having written it first. So you definitely need to copyright it immediately.
I hope they get out OK, yet I can’t help but observe that the gene pool would be better off without them!
Here is a forecasting site for passage making yachts. http://passageweather.com/
Seems more planning went into their bar list, though even that didn’t work out. No reserve.
Congratulations, Anthony, on being able (and capable) to help on such short notice. Best wishes for a safe resolution of the situation for all involved.
—–
BTW, perhaps one of the most amazing things about your experience above is that you were able to make it out of COSTCO and home in 15 minutes! 🙂
I just spliced on this penguin-guano proxy to the ice coverage numbers, & the whole Antarctic becomes ice-free by 2008. You’re welcome, Climate Boat People. I hope you enjoyed your trip.
Steve from Rockwood says:
January 1, 2014 at 9:44 am
Huh? How can a ship carry a helicopter which can’t fly over water? Whose air safety rules? I’m guessing you are referring to CFR 136.11. That applies to helicopters used for “commercial tours”, and also note that requirement only applies if:
I’m back to my original question: how could you possibly put a helicopter which can’t fly over water on a ship?
The helicopter doesn’t need to actually land on ice in the sense of apply its full weight; it only needs to touch down low enough so people can scramble on board. This works every time in the movies. It also works in all the climate models.
I think Captain Wang is being stopped by flying conditions, not safety regulations.
I thought I read that they had a hull breach? Wouldn’t that mean they are looking for a window of calm winds for air operations? Dangerous winds and a hull breach are fairly low on my list of good things at sea.
Gonna be some cranky Coasties having missed Sydney, there will be one hell of a safety inspection if this turns out well.
Doug says:
January 1, 2014 at 9:04 am
My browser (Chrome) always shows an image of the Aurora as of 12/30. F5 doesn’t force a refresh. On the web I found a trick – open a page in incognito mode (CTRL-SHIFT-N).
NIce, it shows Thu 02 Jan 2014 12:00 am.
Thanks Doug I was having the same problem and this worked for me too . ;>)
It appears the helicopter evacuation will take place nearby on the pack ice and not from onboard the ship.
Polar Star still headed to Sidney about 300km out.
I can not top what others have said. Ethics, profesionalis at its finest.
This is the second time WeatherBELL (Joe D’Aleo and friends) has done this BTW: FORBES – Hurricane Sandy: Perfect Storm Sequel? U.S. Braces For Landfall by Joe Bastardi, Ryan Maue and Michael Barak and maybe why the request.
Why not go to the guys with a proven track record? Why not go to a private group that doesn’t have to deal with red tape and permission?
Monique says:
January 1, 2014 at 9:58 am
James Cameron already has an extensive supply of climate clichés; he does not need my help, although I think some of my casting choices are inspired.
And truth is sometimes stranger than fiction. It might not be necessary to feed vodka to orcas as my screenplay suggested; according to this source young porpoises have mastered the art of getting high by taking hits off a puffer fish they pass around. Presumably other members of the porpoise family could learn the same behavior.
Might be handy to know if you run out of vodka. And if I get stoned enough, I might not mind seeing Flipper “twerking”.
Well, there went all my New Year’s resolutions …
Jean Parisot says:
“I thought I read that they had a hull breach? Wouldn’t that mean they are looking for a window of calm winds for air operations? Dangerous winds and a hull breach are fairly low on my list of good things at sea.”
My question too. In the news video Watts links to, John Coleman says the crew was working to repair some hull plating. I have not seen this yet in any news article. Anyone have details?
It appears the authorities have decided to pull out all the stops. Every hour in that ice increases the risk, but not reprovisioning the Polar Star would be unwise. No one has mentioned ‘cabin fever,’ yet, which I suspect is the reason for all the forced jollity aboard the Ak. Shok. A friend of mine spent a long time down there, and he said the confinement gets on people’s nerves and can rapidly escalate into violence. This is shaping up to be a real disaster.
Clay Marley says: “My question too. In the news video Watts links to, John Coleman says the crew was working to repair some hull plating. I have not seen this yet in any news article. Anyone have details?”
IIRC, there’s a breach in the port-side hull about 1.5 meters above the waterline. They were patching it using materials on hand. I suspect it’s not currently a factor, if they had the right welding supplies and an experienced welder. The listing to starboard may have been deliberate, by order of the captain.
Bravo, Anthony
That request must have come in shortly after your interview on Calgary’s NewsTalk770.
You did a phenomenal job on the interview point out the facts on climate change. Unfortunately we rarely hear reasoned and factual talk on the subject. This helping out a stranded group on a propaganda mission just points out that climate change skeptics are humans interested in the best for all humans. We are not throwing away our children’s future. On the contrary we are interested in a prosperous future for them that has not been hijacked by false information tax grabs and wealth distribution skeams that end up benefitting those that play the political game rather than the masses they claim to be protecting. I hope that the ship eventually gets its way out of the ice and does not become an environmental hazard/disaster leaking fuel into the Antarctic ecology. Great job again Anthony.
MrX says: @ur momisugly January 1, 2014 at 12:23 am
….my liberal friends and they don’t see the irony at all. In fact, they resent my suggesting it. This won’t change a thing. Those who believe the globe is warming due to human influence won’t let being surrounded by ice deter them.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
It is not those blinded by dogma who have to be convinced but the fence sitters. This has enough drama to engage their attention ESPECIALLY when a skeptic and not just any skeptic by the arch enemy of CAGW himself who is called on for his professional expertise to get them out of the bind their foolishness put them in.
Add in the fact the MSM refuses to cover it accurately and it becomes interesting.
You just couldn’t make this up!
I hope someone not CAGW writes up this story in book form.
Alan Watt, Climate Denialist Level 7 says:
…
Simply brilliant.
Anthony and all:
You are all true Gentlemen and Gentle ladies! Honest people responding with honor and compassion!
Absolutely amazing that when the chips are down and their wastes have hit the propellers; people call scientists they instinctively trust, with their lives.
No calls to RC where supposed weather and climate people hang out.
No calls to sks kindergarten services.
No calls to the world famous Met office.
No calls for climate models supposedly based on weather systems or the modelers supporting them.
No calls to flashy alarmists who insist that meteorologists must bow to CAGW for their jobs.
Yup, we would’ve told them to call the same people!
May their weather turn fair! May all who were or are affected by Turney’s silly shenanigans receive blessings and full benefit for their sufferings.