WUWT and WeatherBell help KUSI-TV with a weather forecasting request from ice-trapped ship in Antarctica Akademik Shokalskiy

Route of MV Akademik Shokalskiy
Route of MV Akademik Shokalskiy Image: Voice of America

Today, while shopping at lunchtime for some last minute year end supplies, I got one of the strangest cell-phone calls ever. It was from my friend John Coleman, the founder of the Weather Channel and Chief meteorologist at KUSI-TV in San Diego. He was calling via cell phone from his car, and he was on his way into the TV station early.

He started off by saying, “Anthony, we have a really strange situation here”.

Then to my surprise, he relayed a conversation he had just had; a person on the Akademik Shokalskiy had reached out, because they didn’t have adequate weather data on-board. At first, I thought John was pulling my leg, but then as he gave more details, I realized he was serious.

What had happened was that the US Coast Guard had received a message from the ship, requesting weather and wind information for Antarctica. That got relayed to someone at the Scripps oceanographic Institute in San Diego, and it went to John’s weekend KUSI meteorologist Dave Scott. Dave had worked with a scientist who is now on the US Coast Guard IceBreaker Polar Star, and they had logged the request for weather for forecast data from Akademik Shokalskiy. That’s how all this got started.

The message was that they needed better weather information on the ship than they had, specifically about wind and how it might affect the breakup of sea ice. John asked me to gather everything I had on the area and send it, and also to help him contact Joe D’Aleo of WeatherBell Analytics, because somehow John’s cellphone had gotten stuck into some sort of “private caller” mode and Joe wasn’t answering his phone due to how the incoming call looked.

My first thought was that no matter how much we’ve been criticizing the expedition for its silliness, that if such a request had reached all the way from Antarctica to me, I’d do everything I could to help.

I told John “give me 15 minutes”, which was about the time I’d need to get out of COSTCO and get back to my office and send along some things I knew would help.

I immediately called Joe D’Aleo at WeatherBell, who was as incredulous as I at the request, and asked him to call John Coleman right away. I explained to him that we had to remember that we were dealing with a Russian ship, not a military ship, but a charter vessel and they likely didn’t have all the tools that American meteorologists had and may not even know where to look for better data. I also pointed out that the Australian scientists on-board were climatologists, and not operational weather forecasters, and finding this sort of weather data probably wasn’t in their skill set.

Joe started working from the WeatherBell end, I finished my shopping and headed back to the office. As I drove, I started thinking about the situation with the ship there. They had wind compressing the ice into shore, with the Akademik Shokalskiy in the middle, and the wind wasn’t changing. They needed a wind shift in order to ease the pressure on the ice but they had no idea when that might happen. It was a waiting game, and as we know, the longer a ship remains trapped in sea ice, the greater its chances of having a hull breach due to the pressure.

I knew just what to send, because it was something that had been discussed several times by commenters on WUWT.

When I got back to the office, I no more than pulled up the bookmark and press send on the email with a brief description of the operational weather data model that covered the region and John Coleman was on the phone again. He asked me to talk to Dave Scott and explain what I had just sent over. I called Dave immediately and relayed the email.

I sent a live link that provided this image of Antarctica, and I noted in a Tweet about the same time:

Dave listened intently to my explanation and then thanked me saying “this is exactly what we need”. I then started to do some research into the extensive library of operational forecast products put together by our friend Dr. Ryan Maue of WeatherBell which can be seen at http://models.weatherbell.com/  About that same time I get a new email from Joe D’Aleo, and he had sorted out the maps needed and had sent an email to John, Dave, and I.

In a couple of minutes John Coleman was back on the phone to me, he wanted my assessment of the maps. I had looked at what was happening and saw what I thought might be an opening in 7-8 days based on the forecast graphics from WeatherBell, where the winds would shift to offshore in the area where Akademik Shokalskiy was stuck. Like we discussed in the WUWT post yesterday Polynyas are very important for marine life and cooling the oceans I had hoped that a coastal polyna might open up near the ship. We also discussed the possibility of a low pressure system passing nearby that might help break up the ice. I didn’t express much hope for that.

The problem is that they are in a catch-22 now, they need strong offshore winds to help blow the sea ice out to open water, but at the same time they need calm or light winds for a safe helicopter rescue.

John Coleman and Dave Scott put together a video news story which ran on the KUSI 6PM News tonight. I was interviewed for the story, and you can watch it here:

DScottCapture

http://www.kusi.com/video?clipId=9686594&autostart=true

Watching the wind is the key to the way out of the situation the Akademik Shokalskiy is in. This near real-time wind model is worth watching, and it updates every three hours with new observations, click on the image to start it.

Antarctic_Wind_map-12-31

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=144.30,-66.68,3000

Note the green circle marker, which is the approximate location the Akademik Shokalskiy is at. Winds are running parallel to the coast, and pushing ice up against the edge of the Commonwealth Bay.

Despite the irony and folly of the situation, I’m sure readers will join me in the hope that everyone makes it off the ship safely, whether it is by helicopter or by the ship being freed from the ice.

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Nigel S
January 1, 2014 8:01 am

Alan Robertson says: January 1, 2014 at 5:00 am
Cut and paste from ‘Aurora Australis’ website, I’m in wet and windy Blighty. They seem to update at 09:00 UT most days but the last report includes news of a good party the night before so that might explain the later posting. Aurora Australis does not show on marinetraffic.com but AIS on ‘Xue Long’ shows her heading slowly north.

Kitefreak
January 1, 2014 8:07 am

Oldseadog says:
January 1, 2014 at 7:33 am
“As for the crew being menial workers, have you not noticed that all Merchant Seamen are the scum of the earth except during war time?”
————————————
Absolutely I have. I didn’t mean that I think they are menial workers, certainly not, just that their employers do. That was my point really – they are just as vauable as the rest of the people, just as much people deserving of rescue. Sorry for the misunderstanding.

TAG
January 1, 2014 8:10 am

Janice Moore writes:
================================
P.S. Yet another resounding blow for free markets over socialism: During Hurricane (a real one) Katrina, it was privately owned Home Depot who got the supplies and equipment through; when 33 Chilean miners needed rescuing from the bowels of the earth, it was private companies in the U.S., Germany, and other
============================
I went through the great ice storm of 1998 in the vicinity of Ottawa Canada. This was a massive ice storm that was so serious that it destroyed all but one of the major transmission serving Montreal. There were serious plans made to evacuate Montreal ( a city of several million people) if the remaining one failed. During the storm, the supply chains of privately owned companies failed. There were no batteries or generators to be had at any price, as two examples. In Canada, On the other hand, the Canadian army responded with an immediate and effective relief plan.
As anyone who has ever worked in private industry the archetype of the over-paid, entitled and incompetent executive is completely realistic. I remember working fro one who did nothing but sit in his office and design his home. The free market created the DOTCOM bubble, teh fiber optic bubble, the liar mortgage bubble, the sovereign debt bubble. The free market is no panacea.

Steve from Rockwood
January 1, 2014 8:17 am

Man Bearpig says:
January 1, 2014 at 7:50 am
My guess is that they have drunk all the whiskey and beer and are just left with water.
———————————————
I had the pleasure of a fishing cruise onboard a Russian boat on the Volga River. During dinner someone (commenting on the excellent cruise thus far) joked that the biggest problem for the Captain must be running out of booze. The Captain replied that there were 3 supplies of alcohol onboard. The first was for the passengers, the second for the crew and the third for the Captain. He then added “I do not guarantee the first two”.

anvilman
January 1, 2014 8:22 am

[snip – comment in poor taste and not appropriate here – Anthony]

Bill H
January 1, 2014 8:22 am

omnologos says:
January 1, 2014 at 7:15 am
Oldseadog – the captain has a good excuse. Having found more ice than usual a landing party decided it was slushy ice then used two ATVs to travel 80mi back and forth to Mawsons huts.
The ship had to await their return no matter what.
================================
As I previously stated the Chief Scientist made a decision and the Captain had to follow orders. Had the Captain said no to the expedition and cited the ships safety I am not sure how that would have gone over.. But what we have now is ice under the bridge… Time to clean up the mess while the dutiful MSM ignores the fact that these alarmists were unprepared partisan hacks.

Sun Spot
January 1, 2014 8:23 am

Hopefully they won’t end up as candidate’s for the Darwin awards

Jimbo
January 1, 2014 8:24 am

It’s a big pity the expedition failed. This is because they went to see how much had changed at Mawson Station over 100 years.
Looks pretty frozen up to me except around the human installations (feet, wheels, warmth etc.)
http://www.antarctica.gov.au/webcams/mawson
Commonwealth Bay in Mawson’s time – ice free!
http://nla.gov.au/nla.pic-an23323355

david eisenstadt
January 1, 2014 8:27 am

Kitefreak says:
January 1, 2014 at 7:49 am
doesnt it have alot to do with whether the pronoun is an object (me) or a subject (I), the ball hit bob and me…bob and I hit the ball.
just sayin….

January 1, 2014 8:28 am

TAG says January 1, 2014 at 8:10 am

The free market created the DOTCOM bubble, teh fiber optic bubble, the liar mortgage bubble, the sovereign debt bubble. The free market is no panacea.

Say, who is it that govt ‘taxes’ (literally: “shakes down”) to get so big and powerful? Themselves? Riiiight …. 2nd part: Who was/is Steve Jobs, Bill Gates, Michael Dell? Are using a PC or Mac to post this?

Monique
January 1, 2014 8:35 am

“The message was that they needed better weather information on the ship”
One cannot help but point out that it would have been preferable to have obtained this information in advance. If the expedition’s leader had determined at the planning stage that one of his premises was false because ice at the Antartica has been increasing rather than decreasing, would he have even proceeded with this expedition?

G. Karst
January 1, 2014 8:38 am

I wonder why they didn’t get their weather report from skeptical science. I am sure they could have provided a consensus evaluation quickly. The guy in the superhero costume could deliver it pronto. I am not sure, what use, the guys in the Nazi getups will be … though. GK

Monique
January 1, 2014 8:39 am

It appears from this tweet that there is still quite an education curve facing the expedition’s leader.
“@wendy_harmer Told Prof Chris Turney on radio this a.m. his trapped ship being touted as evidence of no global warming.Oh how he laughed at the “loonies”!
4:58 PM – 30 Dec 13″

General P. Malaise
January 1, 2014 8:40 am

good on you Anthony.
I hope (but doubt) that they will remember your assistance or that science is supposed to be objective.
the warming bullsh!t and obamacare are really the same thing. (while I think it is important to rebuff and shine a light on the malfeasance of the puppetmasters) the goal is neither the climate or healthcare. it is communism pure and simple (the Stalin or Mao kind).
I applaud your work and frequent your blog but at the end of the day the real fight is socialism and not the topics the puppetmasters want us to do battle with.
Something that really struck me with this essay is that without the freedom of the individual that the US constitution provided we would never have the scientific tools to measure the weather, the sun and the fantastic discoveries we all take for granted.
When was the last time anyone saw Russia or China launch a research satellite and allow everyone to benefit from it? yeah …never.
keep up the good work but remember this battle is over freedom even though it looks like a battle over whether the earth is warming or not.
Best regards.
http://www.pbase.com/llukee/image/153925410 doesn’t look like it is warm here either
P. Malaise.

Steve from Rockwood
January 1, 2014 8:42 am

TAG says:
January 1, 2014 at 8:10 am
Janice Moore writes:
================================
P.S. Yet another resounding blow for free markets over socialism: During Hurricane (a real one) Katrina, it was privately owned Home Depot who got the supplies and equipment through; when 33 Chilean miners needed rescuing from the bowels of the earth, it was private companies in the U.S., Germany, and other
============================
I went through the great ice storm of 1998 in the vicinity of Ottawa Canada. This was a massive ice storm that was so serious that it destroyed all but one of the major transmission serving Montreal. […snip…]
As anyone who has ever worked in private industry the archetype of the over-paid, entitled and incompetent executive is completely realistic. I remember working fro one who did nothing but sit in his office and design his home. The free market created the DOTCOM bubble, the fiber optic bubble, the liar mortgage bubble, the sovereign debt bubble. The free market is no panacea.
———————————————————————-
TAG:
Although not as bad as the storm of ’98 we have had two ice storms here near Rockwood in 2013, the first knocking down power lines for 4 days and the second (Dec-23 to Dec-29) for 6 days. The first thing you learn from the public hydro company is that you are responsible for clearing the trees off your private property. The second thing you learn is you can’t start doing this until they come and pull the fuse and ground the power line. We called on Dec-23 and no one ever came to pull the fuse and ground the line. We spent two days cutting trees away from the power lines (we live in the country, have 5 chain saws and have the experience) and hired an experienced tree cutter to top the trees that were touching the line (which we then cleaned up). Most of the crews working in our area were private contractors hired by the town of Milton because they just don’t have the manpower. A few years ago we watched the town of Milton actually planting trees below power lines within the city limits – directly below the power lines. All the work that has been done to trim the trees off the power lines has not addressed the real problem. The trees remain alive below the power lines and will eventually grow in to cause the same problem in the future. The public sector is no panacea.
In the previous ice storm in early 2013 five popular trees came down and broke our line in three sections. I had to call a private tree cutter and a private linesman – both who previously worked for the public hydro company but were let go during cutbacks. The linesman would not go near the wires until the hydro company pulled the fuse and grounded the line. So we waited….
Our hydro company has spent hundreds of millions of dollars upgrading the lines for solar and wind turbine installations and yet has never even bothered to keep the trees away from the transmission lines. And the town of Milton (and other municipalities) still plants trees directly below power lines, purely for aesthetic reasons.
The head of public hydro in Ontario in 2001 (Clitheroe) spent several million dollars on her office renovation, had a limousine driver, golf club membership and when they fired her, she sued the the province over her measly $307,000 a year pension. Over-paid, entitled and incompetent executive indeed! Public service too.

TRM
January 1, 2014 8:47 am

How many climate scientists does it take to make a weather prediction? NONE! That’s a weatherman’s job! 🙂
Good work Mr Watts & Co.

Tom
January 1, 2014 9:00 am

http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Ftavrida.co.ua%2Fnews%2F16523-passazhirov-s-nis-akademik-shokalskiy-resheno-evakuirovat-vertoletom.html
Per Australian Maritime Safety (AMSA) request, USCGC Polar star bypassed their port call upon Sydney, Australia and are about one week out from the ice margin near Akademik Shokalsky.

January 1, 2014 9:04 am

My browser (Chrome) always shows an image of the Aurora as of 12/30. F5 doesn’t force a refresh. On the web I found a trick – open a page in incognito mode (CTRL-SHIFT-N).
NIce, it shows Thu 02 Jan 2014 12:00 am.

sunsettommy
January 1, 2014 9:04 am

“My first thought was that no matter how much we’ve been criticizing the expedition for its silliness, that if such a request had reached all the way from Antarctica to me, I’d do everything I could to help.”
BRAVO!

January 1, 2014 9:06 am

Jimbo says:
January 1, 2014 at 6:20 am

If this were a Hollywood script it would be rejected as being too ridiculous. Irony upon irony. Well done Anthony, good show and keep it up.

I’ll start the New Year with a bet it will become a Hollywood script about heroic climate researchers facing hostile government agencies under the influence of multinational oil companies struggling to finance their own research expedition from bake sale proceeds. But among the mostly Russian crew are several saboteurs working for the Koch brothers who foul up the engine controls so the ship is caught in a sudden buildup of the “wrong kind” of ice. Meanwhile, the NSA intercepts and alters every outgoing communication from the ship so the world never learns that their plight is a direct result of global warming from fossil fuels.
The saboteurs escape by donning jetpacks they have hidden aboard and zooming off to rendezvous with a waiting submarine, leaving the rest of the crew and scientists stranded in the ice with no engines, no heat, and no hope.
However chief scientist (played by George Clooney) working with his principal assistant (Gywnneth Paltrow, or perhaps need an Aussie here — Cate Blanchett?), who is torn between loyalty/attraction to her new boss and the former relationship she had with his main scientific rival (played by Matt Damon), discovers that blowing small holes in the ice around the ship with improvised explosives allows algae to grow, which they are able to harvest and process into bio-fuel.
Meanwhile the rest of the Russian crew has discovered they can use some of the MRE’s on board to distil vodka, so their morale is improved and they stop being gloomy and work with the scientists to save the ship. The problem of no heat is addressed when perky graduate assistant (played by Miley Cyrus) shows everyone how a certain kind of dancing can raise body temperature, even after consuming lots of vodka and removing lots of clothing.
But even after gathering enough bio-fuel they are still trapped by the ice until they discover that spilling some of the distilled-from-MREs vodka in the water attracts a pod of Orcas, who use their powerful sonar to create micro-fissures in the ice, turning it into a giant sea-slushie which the ship can now power through (in a carbon-neutral way).
On shore a former climate researcher whose career had been ruined by a cabal of climate deniers, (Jane Fonda, cameo apperance) ignores death threats received from anonymous Twitter accounts and manages to bypass the NSA interdiction so the real story finally gets out. Back on board, the Gwynneth Paltrow/Cate Blanchett character resolves her romantic crisis in favor of the George Clooney character, while the Matt Damon character is forced to admit his scientific rival was correct and decides he wants to learn the Macarena from the Miley Cyrus character, so they all end up happy.
But the Russian crew has had to dump all their vodka overboard to keep the orcas working on the ice pack, so they are once again gloomy. They have just enough bio-fuel to make it out of the ice where with the final assistance of the orca pod they manage the capture the submarine, the two saboteurs, and a cache of documents linking the Koch brothers to the whole plot. The Russian crew, now cheerful again because they have also captured some more vodka, discover they can process some of the MREs into bio-beets, which they use to make borscht to go with the vodka. After a hearty meal of borcht and vodka, everyone is inspired to dance and get warm.
The scientists and their now enthusiastic crew take the submarine and sneak into a secret Russian port where a Greenpeace ship is being illegally detained. They board the Greenpeace ship, free the crew and discover another cache of documents detailing a plot to assassinate the saintly elder statesman of the environmental movement (Al Gore, cameo appearance).
Now running from the Russians, the NSA, and a hoard of Koch Brothers mercenaries (Sylvester Stallone, Arnold Schwarzenegger & others, cameo appearance), they escape to Bikini Atholl where they tap into the old military communication system left from the nuclear testing days (which the NSA can’t tap because they no longer have anyone who understands how vacuum tubes work) and broadcast Climate Truth to the whole world.
Evil doers are arrested, the US finally signs the Climate treaty and the Russian crew discover how to distil vodka from coconuts using only solar energy.
Should I copyright this now?

LamontT
January 1, 2014 9:12 am

That was very good of you to help them. Glad you could.
I was being a bit sarcastic and silly in the main thread when I suggested they depended on their own modeling to operate under. But it sounds like they don’t know how to do real close term forecasting. Something I suspected but it is interesting to see it confirmed.

RockyRoad
January 1, 2014 9:13 am

Looks like climatologists only get real when they sober up.
Which begs the question–Do they run their climate models while inebriated, too?
Whatever–I hope they all make it out alive and humbled. Had they never sobered up, they never would have tasted the humility.
Meanwhile, Watts et al deserve a big round of applause!

Nancy C
January 1, 2014 9:14 am

“We’re the AAE, who have travelled far,
having fun doing science in Antarctica(r)!”
I have a number of friends who were higher educated in the fine arts at various times over the last decade or so, and one phrase I noticed, popular among them that you rarely hear from non-artists, is “making art”. I always figured you paint a painting or you sculpt a sculpture or whatever, but it turns out those things are too specific and art is very unspecific. For example, making art might include things like video taping yourself take a nap, or possibly the art resides in your conscious aesthetic decision making process not to video tape the nap. “What are you going to do this weekend?” “I don’t know, I’ll probably go see Godspeed You Black Emperor and get drunk and try to make some art.” In other words, “making art” is a phrase you use to indicate that, unlike non-artists, when you dick around and waste time, what you’re doing is *important*. “Doing science” kind of has a similar ring to me these days.

Steve from Rockwood
January 1, 2014 9:44 am

righttimewrongplace says:
January 1, 2014 at 8:09 am
Slightly confusing article. At least for me…who spots whom?
http://www.smh.com.au/travel/travel-news/antarctica-rescue-aurora-australis-spots-stricken-akademik-shokalskiy-20140101-3067g.html
———————————————————
From your link:
“[Captain Wang] has been sitting there because his helicopter doesn’t have floats, so it can’t fly over water.”
This is a problem. If a helicopter doesn’t have floats then it can’t fly over open water (air safety rules). It also can’t land on sea ice.
The dimensions of the Akademik Shokalskiy (AS) are 71.06 m (length) by 12.82 m (beam). The Xue Long is 167 m long by 22.6 m beam and has a heli-pad. The KA-32 helicopter has a rotor area equivalent diameter of 22.3 m (almost twice the width of the AS). I hope someone asked the pilot of the helicopter if he thinks he can land on the deck of the much smaller AS which is not equipped with a heli-pad. Otherwise it’s harness time. I’m not a sailor but the beam dimension is the widest part of a ship and the front of the AS where the helicopter would land looks much narrower than the beam. I picked a bad time to give up popcorn.

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