Today, while shopping at lunchtime for some last minute year end supplies, I got one of the strangest cell-phone calls ever. It was from my friend John Coleman, the founder of the Weather Channel and Chief meteorologist at KUSI-TV in San Diego. He was calling via cell phone from his car, and he was on his way into the TV station early.
He started off by saying, “Anthony, we have a really strange situation here”.
Then to my surprise, he relayed a conversation he had just had; a person on the Akademik Shokalskiy had reached out, because they didn’t have adequate weather data on-board. At first, I thought John was pulling my leg, but then as he gave more details, I realized he was serious.
What had happened was that the US Coast Guard had received a message from the ship, requesting weather and wind information for Antarctica. That got relayed to someone at the Scripps oceanographic Institute in San Diego, and it went to John’s weekend KUSI meteorologist Dave Scott. Dave had worked with a scientist who is now on the US Coast Guard IceBreaker Polar Star, and they had logged the request for weather for forecast data from Akademik Shokalskiy. That’s how all this got started.
The message was that they needed better weather information on the ship than they had, specifically about wind and how it might affect the breakup of sea ice. John asked me to gather everything I had on the area and send it, and also to help him contact Joe D’Aleo of WeatherBell Analytics, because somehow John’s cellphone had gotten stuck into some sort of “private caller” mode and Joe wasn’t answering his phone due to how the incoming call looked.
My first thought was that no matter how much we’ve been criticizing the expedition for its silliness, that if such a request had reached all the way from Antarctica to me, I’d do everything I could to help.
I told John “give me 15 minutes”, which was about the time I’d need to get out of COSTCO and get back to my office and send along some things I knew would help.
I immediately called Joe D’Aleo at WeatherBell, who was as incredulous as I at the request, and asked him to call John Coleman right away. I explained to him that we had to remember that we were dealing with a Russian ship, not a military ship, but a charter vessel and they likely didn’t have all the tools that American meteorologists had and may not even know where to look for better data. I also pointed out that the Australian scientists on-board were climatologists, and not operational weather forecasters, and finding this sort of weather data probably wasn’t in their skill set.
Joe started working from the WeatherBell end, I finished my shopping and headed back to the office. As I drove, I started thinking about the situation with the ship there. They had wind compressing the ice into shore, with the Akademik Shokalskiy in the middle, and the wind wasn’t changing. They needed a wind shift in order to ease the pressure on the ice but they had no idea when that might happen. It was a waiting game, and as we know, the longer a ship remains trapped in sea ice, the greater its chances of having a hull breach due to the pressure.
I knew just what to send, because it was something that had been discussed several times by commenters on WUWT.
When I got back to the office, I no more than pulled up the bookmark and press send on the email with a brief description of the operational weather data model that covered the region and John Coleman was on the phone again. He asked me to talk to Dave Scott and explain what I had just sent over. I called Dave immediately and relayed the email.
I sent a live link that provided this image of Antarctica, and I noted in a Tweet about the same time:
Just had a request for Antarctic wind and FC data come up via Scripps from #spiritofmawson ship. KUSI, WeatherBell, WUWT all happy to help.
— Watts Up With That (@wattsupwiththat) December 31, 2013
This map shows winds for area ship is trapped in. Waiting for katabatic winds to return which will clear ice. pic.twitter.com/XqCU6NfWWK
— Watts Up With That (@wattsupwiththat) December 31, 2013
Dave listened intently to my explanation and then thanked me saying “this is exactly what we need”. I then started to do some research into the extensive library of operational forecast products put together by our friend Dr. Ryan Maue of WeatherBell which can be seen at http://models.weatherbell.com/ About that same time I get a new email from Joe D’Aleo, and he had sorted out the maps needed and had sent an email to John, Dave, and I.
In a couple of minutes John Coleman was back on the phone to me, he wanted my assessment of the maps. I had looked at what was happening and saw what I thought might be an opening in 7-8 days based on the forecast graphics from WeatherBell, where the winds would shift to offshore in the area where Akademik Shokalskiy was stuck. Like we discussed in the WUWT post yesterday Polynyas are very important for marine life and cooling the oceans I had hoped that a coastal polyna might open up near the ship. We also discussed the possibility of a low pressure system passing nearby that might help break up the ice. I didn’t express much hope for that.
The problem is that they are in a catch-22 now, they need strong offshore winds to help blow the sea ice out to open water, but at the same time they need calm or light winds for a safe helicopter rescue.
John Coleman and Dave Scott put together a video news story which ran on the KUSI 6PM News tonight. I was interviewed for the story, and you can watch it here:
http://www.kusi.com/video?clipId=9686594&autostart=true
Watching the wind is the key to the way out of the situation the Akademik Shokalskiy is in. This near real-time wind model is worth watching, and it updates every three hours with new observations, click on the image to start it.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=144.30,-66.68,3000
Note the green circle marker, which is the approximate location the Akademik Shokalskiy is at. Winds are running parallel to the coast, and pushing ice up against the edge of the Commonwealth Bay.
Despite the irony and folly of the situation, I’m sure readers will join me in the hope that everyone makes it off the ship safely, whether it is by helicopter or by the ship being freed from the ice.
Related articles
- All scientists and passengers to be taken off ship stuck in Antarctic Ice (wattsupwiththat.com)
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When I saw the clip of Anthony in the newscast, more irony was thrown into this story, which I did not think possible.
There are even weather synopsis and forecast ‘charts’ available on HF (High Frequency or ‘short wave’ as it is like to be called too) bands via weather fax (facsimile) broadcasts, although I don’t know how many WX FAX broadcast stations are active in the southern hemisphere or whether radio propagation conditions that far south would be favorable for reception at all hours …
Weather fax broadcasts are -old- tech, but today easily doable with just a laptop’s sound card input and the audio output from an HF receiver.
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(first post of this got snagged in the spam bin .. trying again)
There are even weather synopsis and forecast ‘charts’ available on HF (High Frequency or ‘short wave’ as it is like to be called too) bands via weather fax (facsimile) broadcasts, although I don’t know how many WX FAX broadcast stations are active in the southern hemisphere or whether radio propagation conditions that far south would be favorable for reception at all hours …
Weather fax broadcasts are -old- tech, but today easily doable with just a laptop’s sound card input and the audio output from an HF receiver.
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Oldseadog – the captain has a good excuse. Having found more ice than usual a landing party decided it was slushy ice then used two ATVs to travel 80mi back and forth to Mawsons huts.
The ship had to await their return no matter what.
Much respect for Mr. Watts and co. for helping out with the weather reports. True gentlemanly behaviour; as someone said above – “ethics”. The age of chivalry is not dead.
Great job from the mods also, moderating this intensely interesting story and discussion, as it unfolds. WUWT is the business, and has maintained the highest standards for the last several years I’ve been visiting.
From the Fox News article linked above:
“All 52 passengers will be evacuated, but the crew on the Akademik Shokalskiy will stay behind with the ship and wait for the ice to break up naturally, expedition spokesman Alvin Stone said.”
I say if it’s good enough for the crew to stay a few weeks they should just air drop some supplies and treat the whole ship’s company equally. Why should the ‘scientists’ and media ‘reporters’ be treated any differently? What the flaming heck is so special about them that they can have all this expense (and opportunity cost, as others have pointed out) lavished upon them?
Or is it that the crew are just menial workers, employed by the same mega-transnational corporations that employ workers in almost slave-like conditions to make IPads and thus are expendable, whereas the others are working hard with the MSM to promote a government funded message and must be saved? OK, I can see an argument for getting the women off. But then again, in this age of gender equality and all that….. Crikey, this whole situation is developing into an ethical and moral dillema!
Seriously though, It is amusing to survey their plight, but you feel you shouldn’t laugh and then you do. I hope nobody gets hurt, but what about the crew – what happens to them? I hope they don’t get hurt. That’s what I mean – why are they getting treated differently?
And as for that spineless dickhead reporter from the Guardian complaining about his six hours sleep on a narrow bed, and missing the milkshakes and his girlfriend……. What a pathetic exhibition of shallowness, self-interest, narcisism, living-on-another-planet and disconnected-from-reality behaviour. Sure wouldn’t want a guy like that watching your back in a tricky situation.
A demonstration (if one were needed at all) that what really matters most in life is ethics and integrity.
You have given a clear example to us all – and let’s keep hoping that everyone on board gets home safe and well.
” . . . and had sent an email to John, Dave, and I.” And “I??”
C’mon Anthony, even in California it should be “and me.”
[Reply: Correct. But don’t blame Anthony: in the 1960’s I was taught in a gov’t school that “and I” was proper. ~ mod.]
Jim Cripwell,
There won’t be an official government inquiry unless someone is injured or killed, or the vessel sinks.
The cost of rescue etc. and who pays for it will be decided in the civil courts where the lawyers will make lots of money.
There must be an aerial-equipped camera on board for those overhead photos to be taken. One might otherwise assume they’ve had a flyover.
Kitefreak;
If i was the Captain I would be delighted to get rid of the passengers and “scientists” and to be left alone to get on with saving my ship by myself.
As for the crew being menial workers, have you not noticed that all Merchant Seamen are the scum of the earth except during war time?
Let’s hope they thank Anthony and Joe (and WUWT and Wetherbell) for their help.
Great work Anthony, John and Joe
reading their blog http://www.abc.net.au/science/photos/2013/11/26/3897110.htm it appears that they did not watch the weather development while visiting Mawson’s Hut when it appeared warm and without much wind. It would be interesting to find out if the captain and his team were already getting nervous when the “scientists” spent the 2 days on land there while the sea ice was already starting to move in.
On NTZ, Pierre has also posted a nice article
http://notrickszone.com/2013/12/31/expedition-on-the-cheap-did-organizers-recklessly-negligently-put-lives-and-property-at-risk/
About the entire expedition – they claim that they have done already tons of research but looking at their route, I have my doubts that the scientific evidence so far collected is of any significance. There are many other Antarctic research groups that have gone back there for years and collected data every year so if you aim to test “long-term” changes, you cannot just take a few readings or samples on a few days and claim that these one-timers mean much (i.e. phytoplankton, penguin tissue, etc). You need some baselines – year round.
However, looking at their “publication record” I would not be surprised if the collected info makes it into Science or Nature for the sake of sensationalism! (in fact, the UNSW guys are brilliant writers – which brings you further than brilliant sience).
It’s a long way to tip a “rary” 🙂
Please read the latest stupidity in Nature: …..Despite the ambiguities, the exercise will make climate-risk analysis substantially more robust, says Johan Rockström, an expert on water resources at the University of Stockholm and director of the Stockholm Resilience Centre, who was not involved in the project.
“Impact models will never be able to provide the level of detail that ultimately matters for making a city or coastline climate-proof,” he says. “But they do serve as a first approximation to the severe problems deficient regions and nations are facing.”
Regions most at risk from water scarcity include parts of the southern United States, the Mediterranean and the Middle East. By contrast, India, tropical Africa and high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere can expect to receive more water in a warming worldWater risk as world warms, Nature.com 31 dec 2013
The sea Is a dangerous and unpredictable place and ships frequently get in trouble. Hopefully this will turn out well. On the bright side, the Polar Star is a very capable icebreaker and can do 21 feet of ice backing and ramming. So it may take a few more weeks to get someone alongside if the weather doesn’t change.
Here is hoping that the hull plating on the Russian ship survives for 2 more weeks!
v/r,
David Riser
Anthony:
This is truly awesome. Usually one must be content with virtue being its own reward, but occasionally there are bonuses. I was impressed with the length and detail in the KUSI segment — I find with most TV news stories they spend more time hyping the story (“coming up soon …”) than they do presenting the actual story itself.
Shout out to John Coleman, who used to be the TV weatherman in Chicago when I was growing up (I believe WGN-TV, CH 9 from atop the old Prudential Building). He drew cartoons on the weather map and introduced me to the word “Thorm”.
According to latest AIS information (1 hour ago), Polar Star is at S32°59’58”, E155°55’05” and making 7.8 knots on course 257° (heading for Sydney, about 230 NM away). Obviously in no hurry to get to Akademik Shokalskiy. If Polar Star altered course immediately and made full speed (21 knots), she would still take over 4 days to get there.
Extrapolating from this event to the macrocosm, the good ship Science is in peril from the way is has been misdirected by the immature faction that has commandeered it.
Through all the schadenfreude surrounding this event, we have to remember that there are living people on that boat. At the very least their families deserve some consideration. Kudos to everyone helping with the rescue.
Sorry if I am still stuck in a deeply cynical mode/mood. But what it looks like to me is this: These guys have been stuck there for a full week, and it was only when the booze ran out & they started bleating about a “dry ship” that somebody realized: “no one here knows how to read a weather chart – maybe we had better ask someone who does” !?
Lance Hilpert says:
January 1, 2014 at 7:21 am
” . . . and had sent an email to John, Dave, and I.” And “I??”
C’mon Anthony, even in California it should be “and me.”
[Reply: Correct. But don’t blame Anthony: in the 1960’s I was taught in a gov’t school that “and I” was proper. ~ mod.]
—————————————–
And I. Definately. But then the UK and the US are two countries divided by a common language.
The queen says “my husband and I”, she doesn’t say “my husband and me”.
Don’t get me started, I’m a closet grammar nazi. For example, “C’mon” (above) is not a valid conjuntion, but then neither is “won’t”, when you think about it. So I’ll admit it’s confusing, especially on New Year’s day. Probably best not to go down this road….
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/01/antarctica-ship-rescue-plan-foiled-shokalskiy
Looks like they are really starting to take this seriously now. My guess is that they have drunk all the whiskey and beer and are just left with water.
Best way to start a new year; a good action, an gift of science!
http://earth.nullschool.net is great help. I wish Cameron Beccario could do something similar with pressure and temperature.
Christian ethics would dictate compassion for these people, but we should remember that if they had their way, we would all be taxed back into a preindustrial existence.
I think it would be appropriate to make a deck of cards for this epic drama, with a picture and short bio for each participant in order to set the history accurately, or at least a website dedicated to exposing the hubris of upscale warmers.
I like the cool Vincent Van Gohe wind models
more and more it becomes apparent these guys believed their own propaganda, to the point of recklessness and putting other people’s lives at risk. I’m not optimistic this experience will teach them much if anything.
Meanwhile without the weather situation improving, those people should focus on survival rather than partying. Ship with crushed hulls tend to sink in minutes. Do they have enough tents? Is all the survival equipment at a safe distance of the ship? Can they build additional snow/ice shelters?
http://www.usap.gov/travelAndDeployment/documents/FieldManual-Chapt11SnowShelters.pdf