Today, while shopping at lunchtime for some last minute year end supplies, I got one of the strangest cell-phone calls ever. It was from my friend John Coleman, the founder of the Weather Channel and Chief meteorologist at KUSI-TV in San Diego. He was calling via cell phone from his car, and he was on his way into the TV station early.
He started off by saying, “Anthony, we have a really strange situation here”.
Then to my surprise, he relayed a conversation he had just had; a person on the Akademik Shokalskiy had reached out, because they didn’t have adequate weather data on-board. At first, I thought John was pulling my leg, but then as he gave more details, I realized he was serious.
What had happened was that the US Coast Guard had received a message from the ship, requesting weather and wind information for Antarctica. That got relayed to someone at the Scripps oceanographic Institute in San Diego, and it went to John’s weekend KUSI meteorologist Dave Scott. Dave had worked with a scientist who is now on the US Coast Guard IceBreaker Polar Star, and they had logged the request for weather for forecast data from Akademik Shokalskiy. That’s how all this got started.
The message was that they needed better weather information on the ship than they had, specifically about wind and how it might affect the breakup of sea ice. John asked me to gather everything I had on the area and send it, and also to help him contact Joe D’Aleo of WeatherBell Analytics, because somehow John’s cellphone had gotten stuck into some sort of “private caller” mode and Joe wasn’t answering his phone due to how the incoming call looked.
My first thought was that no matter how much we’ve been criticizing the expedition for its silliness, that if such a request had reached all the way from Antarctica to me, I’d do everything I could to help.
I told John “give me 15 minutes”, which was about the time I’d need to get out of COSTCO and get back to my office and send along some things I knew would help.
I immediately called Joe D’Aleo at WeatherBell, who was as incredulous as I at the request, and asked him to call John Coleman right away. I explained to him that we had to remember that we were dealing with a Russian ship, not a military ship, but a charter vessel and they likely didn’t have all the tools that American meteorologists had and may not even know where to look for better data. I also pointed out that the Australian scientists on-board were climatologists, and not operational weather forecasters, and finding this sort of weather data probably wasn’t in their skill set.
Joe started working from the WeatherBell end, I finished my shopping and headed back to the office. As I drove, I started thinking about the situation with the ship there. They had wind compressing the ice into shore, with the Akademik Shokalskiy in the middle, and the wind wasn’t changing. They needed a wind shift in order to ease the pressure on the ice but they had no idea when that might happen. It was a waiting game, and as we know, the longer a ship remains trapped in sea ice, the greater its chances of having a hull breach due to the pressure.
I knew just what to send, because it was something that had been discussed several times by commenters on WUWT.
When I got back to the office, I no more than pulled up the bookmark and press send on the email with a brief description of the operational weather data model that covered the region and John Coleman was on the phone again. He asked me to talk to Dave Scott and explain what I had just sent over. I called Dave immediately and relayed the email.
I sent a live link that provided this image of Antarctica, and I noted in a Tweet about the same time:
Just had a request for Antarctic wind and FC data come up via Scripps from #spiritofmawson ship. KUSI, WeatherBell, WUWT all happy to help.
— Watts Up With That (@wattsupwiththat) December 31, 2013
This map shows winds for area ship is trapped in. Waiting for katabatic winds to return which will clear ice. pic.twitter.com/XqCU6NfWWK
— Watts Up With That (@wattsupwiththat) December 31, 2013
Dave listened intently to my explanation and then thanked me saying “this is exactly what we need”. I then started to do some research into the extensive library of operational forecast products put together by our friend Dr. Ryan Maue of WeatherBell which can be seen at http://models.weatherbell.com/ About that same time I get a new email from Joe D’Aleo, and he had sorted out the maps needed and had sent an email to John, Dave, and I.
In a couple of minutes John Coleman was back on the phone to me, he wanted my assessment of the maps. I had looked at what was happening and saw what I thought might be an opening in 7-8 days based on the forecast graphics from WeatherBell, where the winds would shift to offshore in the area where Akademik Shokalskiy was stuck. Like we discussed in the WUWT post yesterday Polynyas are very important for marine life and cooling the oceans I had hoped that a coastal polyna might open up near the ship. We also discussed the possibility of a low pressure system passing nearby that might help break up the ice. I didn’t express much hope for that.
The problem is that they are in a catch-22 now, they need strong offshore winds to help blow the sea ice out to open water, but at the same time they need calm or light winds for a safe helicopter rescue.
John Coleman and Dave Scott put together a video news story which ran on the KUSI 6PM News tonight. I was interviewed for the story, and you can watch it here:
http://www.kusi.com/video?clipId=9686594&autostart=true
Watching the wind is the key to the way out of the situation the Akademik Shokalskiy is in. This near real-time wind model is worth watching, and it updates every three hours with new observations, click on the image to start it.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=144.30,-66.68,3000
Note the green circle marker, which is the approximate location the Akademik Shokalskiy is at. Winds are running parallel to the coast, and pushing ice up against the edge of the Commonwealth Bay.
Despite the irony and folly of the situation, I’m sure readers will join me in the hope that everyone makes it off the ship safely, whether it is by helicopter or by the ship being freed from the ice.
Related articles
- All scientists and passengers to be taken off ship stuck in Antarctic Ice (wattsupwiththat.com)
It’s the data provided peer-reviewed? They are kind of prissy in this regard.
Thank you Mr. Watts for your help.
I would suggest that this request originated from the Officers rather than the “scientists”.
But more and more it begins to look as if the Captain does not have as much ice experience, or perhaps southern ice experience, as he needs. I find this strange since the Russians are masters at building and running icebreakers and ice strengthened ships. They probably have more knowledge about this than all the rest of the seafaring nations put together.
I am surprised, though, that this weather information isn’t readily available, from all the scientific bases in Antarctica, for the use of all seafarers in the area, for example British Antarctic Survey. Do they not have Met. men on station giving out the forecast all the time? Unless of course you have to pay a subscription to gain access to it. On the other hand this is a Mayday Distress situation and I would have thought that the locals would have been keeping the ship continuously informed regarding the weather.
But at least they are now getting the “good oil” and with luck (they certainly need lots of that) all will be resolved satisfactorily.
A boatload of tourists taken to Antarctica without a weatherman on board. This is bordering the criminally insane.
Well done to Anthony and WUWT (Along with mods too). Unfortunately, idiocy and propaganda prevails. Here in Australia, although it’s no longer labelled a “sceince expedition” more so a “tourist ecapade”, it is still being held up as an example of the results of AGW. Won’t someone think of the penguins?
From the Antarctic forecasts I have seen for the Mertz area, low pressure systems are moving in a clockwise direction around the area for the next few days, and as the low in SH result in clockwise wind movement and as the 6 o’clock position of the low would coincide with position of the ship, the wind direction at this location would be anticlockwise. The result ? a wind cancellation possibly.
High pressure systems would have to move in for a wind change and the forecasts keep the lows in position for the next week.
I would like to see the URL of the wind model that Anthony supplied.
One would think the Chinese, Australian and French ice breakers would have access to weather forecasts.
Anyone who’s read any historical accounts of Arctic/Antarctic expeditions will be aware of the very great danger ships trapped in the ice can face. If it goes wrong it can go very badly wrong – disastrously so. So I don’t think any of us here wish any harm on anyone aboard the Akademik Shokalskiy; merely that they all get to safety. Having said that, a little less partying from those trapped aboard the ship and a little more gravitas appropriate to their predicament wouldn’t go amiss. There are countless people not aboard the ship working hard to secure a happy outcome for all.
Good to hear Anthony his crew are doing what they can to assist. All other arguments go out of the window when there is a definite risk to human life involved. Nobody should seek to trivialize the potential for an unhappy ending here. Even a series of helicopter rescues, if it comes to that, will be a very dangerous undertaking.
I am among many here who have enjoyed the unexpected gift of the very public own-goal to CAGW alarmists this story has offered over the Christmas and New year break, but I’m well aware there is always the potential for things to take a very serious turn.
If they don’t make it out alive, should we think of it as an example of evolution in action?
omnologos:
A weather forecaster is not a common crew member on any commercial vessel The weather forecast at sea is usually received from a weather forecasting company.
Oldseadog -this is no February cruise in the Caribbean – even Turney knows Antarctic weather can change any minute. And still he went ahead without weather expertise. Same for the Captain.
What’s worrying now is that we don’t know either of them’s leadership skills. They don’t look like Shackletons, but who knows.
“John Gross says:
January 1, 2014 at 12:51 am”
In Australia we have daily weather forecasts (And repeats, and repeats, and repeats, and repeats, and repeats, and repeats). It is spat out across the airwaves, sometimes, with the question; (The presenters say) What do the models tell us? I go and find some sort of body support garment and have a good giggle!
Let me see if I have got this right:
1. 54 useless tourists charter a Ship for Fools and use my taxes to have a 5-week boondoggle in Antarctica.
2. They have no idea what they are doing today as they are living a century in the future (where they know EXACTLY what is happening to 1/10th of a degree).
3. They get stuck by that inconvenient truth called icepack reality (which they did not foresee 24-hours ahead).
4. They are in a precarious situation and their foolishness is plain for the world to see.
5. A massively expensive rescue operation that has disrupted every other scientific and resupply operation in the Antarctic is mounted, that then traps a second ship and puts it in danger. More lives are now at risk.
6. The less than heroic Topham whines that his bed is uncomfortable, he misses milkshakes and he is beginning to ‘lose it’ (post-traumatic stress disorder claim coming soon?). His back hurts and he banged his leg on a door. Douglas Mawson would weep that this is the sort of person chosen to follow in his footsteps.
7. ‘Professor’ Chris Turney (can anyone find his thesis?) the PR guru needs a distraction, so he reiterates than the ice is melting, its raining not snowing (but fails to use ‘unprecedented’ and ‘its worse than we thought’ (maybe he is saving those for later when he can spin this into ‘its the result of CO2 and mankind’s emissions). Best he wait post-rescue lest those wasting time on this decide to cook the Chris Turkey on his own petard?
8. And the piece de resistance? As people spend time, resources and money striving to rescue the fools, they produce a Party Song & Video showing what a good time they are having. Let’s hope it is played in the Court Case by the prosecution as there is a charge in Australia “negligent behaviour and actions endangering life and property”
I would like to think that this is the last straw, but it will have no effect at all on the cult and its request for more of my/our money.
Whatever we may think of this expedition we all no doubt fervently hope that everyone involved comes out of it safe and well, if a little chastened by their experience.
tonyb
sounds like there are a few unhappy people on board, as reality sets in:
31 Dec: NYT The Lede Blog: Christine Hauser: When Stranded in the Antarctic, Get Ready and Wait
Erik Van Sebille, the oceanographer with the expedition, said on Tuesday in a video diary message that they had all been instructed to be ready for a possible evacuation but that in the meantime he was continuing to work on a joint project with the ornithologist, studying what effect the ocean temperature has on the number of birds they encounter…
But a National Geographic editor, Christine Dell’Amore, wrote that an Australian photographer on board the ship, Andrew Peacock, said in an email to the magazine that “the mood is getting more frustrated by the day.”
“There are so many variables—every briefing is different—and people are getting a little worried now while the weather stays poor. Lack of control and missing loved ones are starting to put some emotion into our conversations!”…
http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/12/31/when-stranded-in-the-antarctic-get-ready-and-wait/?hpw&rref=science&_r=0
no reality for Turney, or “they”!
31 Dec: AFP: Madeleine Coorey: Winds, rain halt Antarctic ship rescue
He (Turney)said those onboard were keeping busy — either continuing to pack up the scientific equipment on the boat or taking part in seminars ranging from sewing to salsa dancing and reflecting the skills of those trapped on the vessel…
The group said while sea ice was disappearing in many places due to climate change, where they were now stranded ice was building up — a change which they said would impact the deep ocean circulation around the world.
“Underwater, forests of algae are dying as sea ice blocks the light reaching the seabed,” they said, adding that the expanded sea ice had also affected penguin colonies.
“There are many unanswered questions. Who can say what effects the regional circulation changes may have on the ice sheet of the Antarctic plateau?” they said…
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5i5ZZJ7tiXcGFUHzHFyluxfHZlgqQ?docId=14c16fbc-19ce-4ab3-863d-92f624baa3a5
En passant:
No you haven’t got it right.
The Captain got the ship to where she is at the moment, the “scientists” and passengers simply told the Captain what they would like to do and he tried to accommodate them. The passengers on a ship have no operational authority of any kind.
Truth is truly stranger than fiction. Well done and thank you Mr Watts et al.
omnologos:
Turney’s knowledge of the local ice conditions has no bearing on the situation. He did not “go ahead”. He hired a ship, told the Captain where he wanted to go and what he wanted to do when he got there but it was up to the Captain how to accomplish this.
I agree with your last paragraph, though.
Incidentally, Shackleton was a qualified Master Mariner with great experience of commanding vessels in ice.
You’re a good and decent man Anthony.
Again, Happy New Year to your and yours.
Travelling on any seas is fraught with potentail danger. Preparation and the ability to turn back when conditions become nasty is a prerequistie to survive. It is surprising the Russian captain who are usually very good, and experienced, did not take appropriate action. Perhaps less surprising is the apparent lack of preparation by Turney and his Eco-loon team.
The rescue was always going to be difficult and place the rescurers in significant risk.
Reading the after-action report is going to be almost as interesting as reading about the current situation. So many questions – ranging from what the ship’s master was thinking and what he thought the conditions were going to be and what kind of weather information and from where was the ship receiving.
Mr Watts, et al, you are absolutely an asset to the world community. Thank you for being good neighbors.
Can someone please explain the oft parroted “the Antarctic ice is growing in size due to the melting of the ice on the continent – the fresh water running into the ocean – being less dense than sea water – it floats and of course freezes”, This results in the observed increase in sea ice. I’ve seen this quoted on a pro CAWG site – which attacks Anthony position as well as the rest of us skeptics. OK if this is right (and my skeptical mind has its doubts – but yet to see a counter argument (should say – Scientific theory) then why did they not know this before setting off to recreate Masons great venture?
I look forward to this whole story of un-deniable generosity being reported in depth in the Guardian……
Oldseadog says:
January 1, 2014 at 2:30 am
======================
You speak of the British Antarctic Survey and the possible inclusion of ‘ Met. men’. Tragically the Met. Office is a fully paid up hive of CAGW extremists which would mean that, even if the B. A. S. had many ‘Met. men’ with them, they would simply be repeating the CAGW mantra which would, put simply, not be helpful.
Here’s another useful weather link provided by WUWT reader Rob Ricket in another thread: http://www.yr.no/place/Antarctica/Other/Commonwealth_Bay/
Bob has provided a number of very useful maritime links to help us keep track of such things as the Xue Long’s position, etc.
Tango, thanks for that link – substantiates everything Anthony has recounted here. Love the way the weather guys took the opportunity to point out the irony and bag CAGW promotion by Al Gore.