Today, while shopping at lunchtime for some last minute year end supplies, I got one of the strangest cell-phone calls ever. It was from my friend John Coleman, the founder of the Weather Channel and Chief meteorologist at KUSI-TV in San Diego. He was calling via cell phone from his car, and he was on his way into the TV station early.
He started off by saying, “Anthony, we have a really strange situation here”.
Then to my surprise, he relayed a conversation he had just had; a person on the Akademik Shokalskiy had reached out, because they didn’t have adequate weather data on-board. At first, I thought John was pulling my leg, but then as he gave more details, I realized he was serious.
What had happened was that the US Coast Guard had received a message from the ship, requesting weather and wind information for Antarctica. That got relayed to someone at the Scripps oceanographic Institute in San Diego, and it went to John’s weekend KUSI meteorologist Dave Scott. Dave had worked with a scientist who is now on the US Coast Guard IceBreaker Polar Star, and they had logged the request for weather for forecast data from Akademik Shokalskiy. That’s how all this got started.
The message was that they needed better weather information on the ship than they had, specifically about wind and how it might affect the breakup of sea ice. John asked me to gather everything I had on the area and send it, and also to help him contact Joe D’Aleo of WeatherBell Analytics, because somehow John’s cellphone had gotten stuck into some sort of “private caller” mode and Joe wasn’t answering his phone due to how the incoming call looked.
My first thought was that no matter how much we’ve been criticizing the expedition for its silliness, that if such a request had reached all the way from Antarctica to me, I’d do everything I could to help.
I told John “give me 15 minutes”, which was about the time I’d need to get out of COSTCO and get back to my office and send along some things I knew would help.
I immediately called Joe D’Aleo at WeatherBell, who was as incredulous as I at the request, and asked him to call John Coleman right away. I explained to him that we had to remember that we were dealing with a Russian ship, not a military ship, but a charter vessel and they likely didn’t have all the tools that American meteorologists had and may not even know where to look for better data. I also pointed out that the Australian scientists on-board were climatologists, and not operational weather forecasters, and finding this sort of weather data probably wasn’t in their skill set.
Joe started working from the WeatherBell end, I finished my shopping and headed back to the office. As I drove, I started thinking about the situation with the ship there. They had wind compressing the ice into shore, with the Akademik Shokalskiy in the middle, and the wind wasn’t changing. They needed a wind shift in order to ease the pressure on the ice but they had no idea when that might happen. It was a waiting game, and as we know, the longer a ship remains trapped in sea ice, the greater its chances of having a hull breach due to the pressure.
I knew just what to send, because it was something that had been discussed several times by commenters on WUWT.
When I got back to the office, I no more than pulled up the bookmark and press send on the email with a brief description of the operational weather data model that covered the region and John Coleman was on the phone again. He asked me to talk to Dave Scott and explain what I had just sent over. I called Dave immediately and relayed the email.
I sent a live link that provided this image of Antarctica, and I noted in a Tweet about the same time:
Just had a request for Antarctic wind and FC data come up via Scripps from #spiritofmawson ship. KUSI, WeatherBell, WUWT all happy to help.
— Watts Up With That (@wattsupwiththat) December 31, 2013
This map shows winds for area ship is trapped in. Waiting for katabatic winds to return which will clear ice. pic.twitter.com/XqCU6NfWWK
— Watts Up With That (@wattsupwiththat) December 31, 2013
Dave listened intently to my explanation and then thanked me saying “this is exactly what we need”. I then started to do some research into the extensive library of operational forecast products put together by our friend Dr. Ryan Maue of WeatherBell which can be seen at http://models.weatherbell.com/ About that same time I get a new email from Joe D’Aleo, and he had sorted out the maps needed and had sent an email to John, Dave, and I.
In a couple of minutes John Coleman was back on the phone to me, he wanted my assessment of the maps. I had looked at what was happening and saw what I thought might be an opening in 7-8 days based on the forecast graphics from WeatherBell, where the winds would shift to offshore in the area where Akademik Shokalskiy was stuck. Like we discussed in the WUWT post yesterday Polynyas are very important for marine life and cooling the oceans I had hoped that a coastal polyna might open up near the ship. We also discussed the possibility of a low pressure system passing nearby that might help break up the ice. I didn’t express much hope for that.
The problem is that they are in a catch-22 now, they need strong offshore winds to help blow the sea ice out to open water, but at the same time they need calm or light winds for a safe helicopter rescue.
John Coleman and Dave Scott put together a video news story which ran on the KUSI 6PM News tonight. I was interviewed for the story, and you can watch it here:
http://www.kusi.com/video?clipId=9686594&autostart=true
Watching the wind is the key to the way out of the situation the Akademik Shokalskiy is in. This near real-time wind model is worth watching, and it updates every three hours with new observations, click on the image to start it.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=144.30,-66.68,3000
Note the green circle marker, which is the approximate location the Akademik Shokalskiy is at. Winds are running parallel to the coast, and pushing ice up against the edge of the Commonwealth Bay.
Despite the irony and folly of the situation, I’m sure readers will join me in the hope that everyone makes it off the ship safely, whether it is by helicopter or by the ship being freed from the ice.
Related articles
- All scientists and passengers to be taken off ship stuck in Antarctic Ice (wattsupwiththat.com)
Interesting who folks turn to when truth is required to save their behinds. Not at all the same as when the world is a stage and “winning the conversation” is what passies for “reality”.
Anthony,
Serendipity makes for strange bed fellows, doesn’t it? May God bless you for doing the right thing. While we can laugh at the self-induced predicament of the ship of fools, we all should pray for their survival… and help, if it is in our power to do so.
MtK
I do hope they know that you were the one to come to their rescue with the much needed data.
That ought to burn their hides until rescued, and that puts a smile on my face
Just for the record, Anthony, can you please explain if a competent forcaster could have warned them of the danger *before* they were trapped. If the signs were there and they ignored them then the leader should be made to answer for his incompetence.
As the danger recedes and the ice thins, watch out for the hatred to get thicker. Hell hath no fury like a belittled climatologist.
The Aurora Australis is currently in a polyna, I commented on this in yesterdays report (30 Dec.) from the ship. The latest report (31 Dec.) states
‘Mark’ continues
From https://secure3.aad.gov.au/proms/public/schedules/display_sitrep.cfm?bvs_id=19315
Well, well, well. Global Alarmism Ship of fools depends on ‘denier lairs’ and ‘denier central’ for the weather forecasts because the Cause can not fathom out weather patterns nor read Weather maps… Classic, you really REALLY could not make this up.
spread the word guys !!
I am so loving this. We get to mock them for days on the blog of Anthony Watts, who CAGW advocates hate with a passion – and then he helps them with weather info!
It’s like having a cake and eating it too, then getting a full refund for the purchase price.
whatever next?
Here is a bunch of climate scientists doing what they are best at
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-25563594
Jimbo in Australia
The skill set of the ‘scientific’ expeditioners is clearly deficient for the task they set themselves. The scientific leader – Climate Change Professor Chris Turvey of the University of New South Wales in Sydney – is actually a paleantologist (coincidently one of the two genuinely academic research areas of Professor Flannery – the other one being mammology). My research on Turvey’s peer reviewed publications reveals no reference to work on Antarctica, sea ice or indeed on any other topic related to the cryosphere. There is no evidence that he has knowledge or experience of climatology or weather forecasting. This is the man who apparently was in charge of the movements of the ‘Akademic Shokolskiy’ as it attempted to retrace the route of the Australian Antarctic explorer Sir Douglas Mawson approx 100 years ago.
My own feeling is that the best bet for these demented green/warmists is that the powerful US icebreaking Coast Guard Cutter Polar Star will shortly arrive and that the weather will improve.
I am drafting in my head as I write this post the letters I will be sending to the relevant Australian Australian politicians pointing out the extent of this folly and pressing strongly for quick and dirty to inquire into the events and recommend the appropriate spreading of costs of rescue to their professors and their universities and not to the Australian taxpayers.
Mertz area sea ice (January 1) https://secure3.aad.gov.au/proms/public/schedules/display_sitrep.cfm?bvs_id=19315
add this to Google maps Akademic Shokalskiy location https://maps.google.com.au/maps?hl=en&t=h&z=5&q=64+42.000+S,145+0.000+E&ll=-64.700000,145.0000000
Wrong link, try http://www.bom.gov.au/ant/seaice/index.shtml?unit=p29&view=923&band=2&seaSubmit=Update+View for Mertz sea ice area.
BRAVO ZULU to Anthony, John, Dave and Joe.
Headline: “Skeptics Help Save Global Warming Alarmists’ Lives”
Do you think they will ever know? And, if they did, do you think you would ever get a “thank you”?
having trouble posting this on the top thread:
*****BBC’S ANDREW LUCK-BAKER: BEGINS WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY – NOT SURE WE’LL BE HELICOPTER EVACUATED TOMORROW OR POSSIBLY AT ALL!!! WE WERE EXPECTING THE CHINESE ICE-BREAKER TO BE ALONGSIDE THE AUSTRALIAN ICE-BREAKING VESSEL & THEN THE HELICOPTER WOULD FLY TO GET US, BUT IT NOW TRANSPIRES THE CHINESE VESSELL HASN’T MOVED FOR A DAY, FAIRLY DEEP IN THE ICE, 10 MILES FROM THE ICE EDGE, & THERE’S CONCERN IT IS STUCK. FOR THE RESCUE TO GO AHEAD, THE TWO ICE-BREAKERS BOTH HAVE TO BE SIDE BY SIDE IN CLEAR WATER, SO THAT IS NOW UNCERTAIN IF THE CHINESE ICE-BREAKER IS STUCK AND THE AUSTRALIAN ICE-BREAKER IS UNABLE TO FREE IT:
1:43: AUDIO: BBC: Uncertainty over Antarctic helicopter rescue plan
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25558853
He doesn’t sound happy.
——————————————————————————–
From BOM there is an interactive wind speed and direction forecast, but I find this difficult to read;
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=windbarb&level=10m&tz=UTC&area=SH&model=G&chartSubmit=Refresh+View
For the ships approximate location in Antarctica just triangulate down from Tasmania and New Zealand.
Let’s hope a fair wind blows.
And let’s note that SkS were not the website that is called on when lives are on the line.
The difference between the value of science and propaganda.
Martin Hovland says:
January 1, 2014 at 12:09 am
The laws of physics actually work – even in Nature….
‘Catabatic winds’, for those not knowing,
Are caused by heavy, cold air perched on top of
Mountains, glaciers, and ice shelves, like in
Antarctica. The only problem, is that their speeds can get very high.
On Antarctica these winds are the ones that everyone fears. They arrive almost instantaneously, are difficult to forecast, blow at speeds in excess of 160km/hr and, by there nature, are exremely (dangerously) cold.
As Richard North points out, ships stuck in ice dramas haven’t been rare recently but have mainly been studiously ignored by the media:
http://www.eureferendum.com/results.aspx?keyword=OKhotsk
(scroll down to see the several posts)
This time, having the huge media build-up to the trip and having their own on board has made the situation impossible to ignore for the BBC and The Guardian. (Not impossible to spin however)
This story is one of the most amazing ones that I have read in a long time. I hope that your expert meteorologist knowledge and skills give aid and comfort to the climatologists who have no skills at all when it comes to weather forecasting — short term or long term. I hope many people will come to see that it is meteorologists that we should listen to when it comes to weather and climate and not academic grant-seekers who practice a computer driven version of palm-reading.
Someone said in one of the earlier threads that this episode may become more important than climate-gate in the fight against the mindless propaganda pushed by the socialist-greens and I now agree with that assessment.
The Chinese icebreaker, Xue Long is currently stopped. It has been moving as slowly as 0.3 knots in a direction of about 330 degrees for the last day or so:
http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:144.4372/centery:-66.68268/zoom:8/mmsi:412863000
to all sceptics please send this video to everybody they know i have http://www.kusi.com/video?clipId=9686594&autostart=true
Eh, it’s summer down there. I’m sure all that ice will melt any minute.
🙂
Nice job, Anthony, and what an interesting way to end 2013 and start 2014!
…When a ship of any sort runs into ice, what happened aboard the Titanic occurs. The first thing thrown overboard is political correctness, and people show their true colors…
I’m not sure how that works? There was no panic during the sinking. The evacuation of the Titanic was carried out following the ‘politically correct’ standards of the day – women and children first. The result was that some lifeboats were hardly filled at all because there were not enough women and children at their launch points, and many more men died than was necessary…..