Today, while shopping at lunchtime for some last minute year end supplies, I got one of the strangest cell-phone calls ever. It was from my friend John Coleman, the founder of the Weather Channel and Chief meteorologist at KUSI-TV in San Diego. He was calling via cell phone from his car, and he was on his way into the TV station early.
He started off by saying, “Anthony, we have a really strange situation here”.
Then to my surprise, he relayed a conversation he had just had; a person on the Akademik Shokalskiy had reached out, because they didn’t have adequate weather data on-board. At first, I thought John was pulling my leg, but then as he gave more details, I realized he was serious.
What had happened was that the US Coast Guard had received a message from the ship, requesting weather and wind information for Antarctica. That got relayed to someone at the Scripps oceanographic Institute in San Diego, and it went to John’s weekend KUSI meteorologist Dave Scott. Dave had worked with a scientist who is now on the US Coast Guard IceBreaker Polar Star, and they had logged the request for weather for forecast data from Akademik Shokalskiy. That’s how all this got started.
The message was that they needed better weather information on the ship than they had, specifically about wind and how it might affect the breakup of sea ice. John asked me to gather everything I had on the area and send it, and also to help him contact Joe D’Aleo of WeatherBell Analytics, because somehow John’s cellphone had gotten stuck into some sort of “private caller” mode and Joe wasn’t answering his phone due to how the incoming call looked.
My first thought was that no matter how much we’ve been criticizing the expedition for its silliness, that if such a request had reached all the way from Antarctica to me, I’d do everything I could to help.
I told John “give me 15 minutes”, which was about the time I’d need to get out of COSTCO and get back to my office and send along some things I knew would help.
I immediately called Joe D’Aleo at WeatherBell, who was as incredulous as I at the request, and asked him to call John Coleman right away. I explained to him that we had to remember that we were dealing with a Russian ship, not a military ship, but a charter vessel and they likely didn’t have all the tools that American meteorologists had and may not even know where to look for better data. I also pointed out that the Australian scientists on-board were climatologists, and not operational weather forecasters, and finding this sort of weather data probably wasn’t in their skill set.
Joe started working from the WeatherBell end, I finished my shopping and headed back to the office. As I drove, I started thinking about the situation with the ship there. They had wind compressing the ice into shore, with the Akademik Shokalskiy in the middle, and the wind wasn’t changing. They needed a wind shift in order to ease the pressure on the ice but they had no idea when that might happen. It was a waiting game, and as we know, the longer a ship remains trapped in sea ice, the greater its chances of having a hull breach due to the pressure.
I knew just what to send, because it was something that had been discussed several times by commenters on WUWT.
When I got back to the office, I no more than pulled up the bookmark and press send on the email with a brief description of the operational weather data model that covered the region and John Coleman was on the phone again. He asked me to talk to Dave Scott and explain what I had just sent over. I called Dave immediately and relayed the email.
I sent a live link that provided this image of Antarctica, and I noted in a Tweet about the same time:
Just had a request for Antarctic wind and FC data come up via Scripps from #spiritofmawson ship. KUSI, WeatherBell, WUWT all happy to help.
— Watts Up With That (@wattsupwiththat) December 31, 2013
This map shows winds for area ship is trapped in. Waiting for katabatic winds to return which will clear ice. pic.twitter.com/XqCU6NfWWK
— Watts Up With That (@wattsupwiththat) December 31, 2013
Dave listened intently to my explanation and then thanked me saying “this is exactly what we need”. I then started to do some research into the extensive library of operational forecast products put together by our friend Dr. Ryan Maue of WeatherBell which can be seen at http://models.weatherbell.com/ About that same time I get a new email from Joe D’Aleo, and he had sorted out the maps needed and had sent an email to John, Dave, and I.
In a couple of minutes John Coleman was back on the phone to me, he wanted my assessment of the maps. I had looked at what was happening and saw what I thought might be an opening in 7-8 days based on the forecast graphics from WeatherBell, where the winds would shift to offshore in the area where Akademik Shokalskiy was stuck. Like we discussed in the WUWT post yesterday Polynyas are very important for marine life and cooling the oceans I had hoped that a coastal polyna might open up near the ship. We also discussed the possibility of a low pressure system passing nearby that might help break up the ice. I didn’t express much hope for that.
The problem is that they are in a catch-22 now, they need strong offshore winds to help blow the sea ice out to open water, but at the same time they need calm or light winds for a safe helicopter rescue.
John Coleman and Dave Scott put together a video news story which ran on the KUSI 6PM News tonight. I was interviewed for the story, and you can watch it here:
http://www.kusi.com/video?clipId=9686594&autostart=true
Watching the wind is the key to the way out of the situation the Akademik Shokalskiy is in. This near real-time wind model is worth watching, and it updates every three hours with new observations, click on the image to start it.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=144.30,-66.68,3000
Note the green circle marker, which is the approximate location the Akademik Shokalskiy is at. Winds are running parallel to the coast, and pushing ice up against the edge of the Commonwealth Bay.
Despite the irony and folly of the situation, I’m sure readers will join me in the hope that everyone makes it off the ship safely, whether it is by helicopter or by the ship being freed from the ice.
Related articles
- All scientists and passengers to be taken off ship stuck in Antarctic Ice (wattsupwiththat.com)
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Oops, the posting software deleted what looked like html markup. I meant to say,
(TiGT omitted the [sarc] tag, of course.)
@ur momisugly Doug Jones: Have been watching the Polar Star since it made that heading change earlier. It was on course straight toward Sydney, now it appears to be bypassing Garden Island. As of 2150 PST (I’m in Seattle) it was heading 211 deg. at approx. 10 kn. Current heading appears to be straight at Hobart. Anyone have a night source at USCG Pac Area that can elaborate on their immediate destination?
Latest News [~4.30 pm Aust EDST] Helicopter rescue delayed as second ship trapped in ice
http://www.smh.com.au/travel/travel-incidents/helicopter-rescue-delayed-as-second-ship-trapped-in-ice-20140102-306yj.html#ixzz2pDh46a8I
“Plans to rescue 52 passengers trapped on the stricken Russian research ship Akademik Shokalskiy have been thrown into disarray after the Chinese ice-breaker Xue Long itself became stuck in pack ice, west of the Mertz Glacier.
There were expectations that a helicopter would on Thursday begin ferrying trapped passengers off the Russian ship and onto the Xue Long.
The plan was for them to then be transported by barge to the Australian-flagged Aurora Australis.
But on Thursday morning it became apparent the Xue Long was itself unable to move out of the ice. While the Chinese ice-breaker has not issued a distress call for assistance, the Aurora Australis spent most of Wednesday trying to navigate a path between the two vessels.”
Read more on the SMH site as above.
thisisgettingtiresome says:
January 1, 2014 at 1:23 pm
Where is the North Coast of Antarctica, as John Coleman refers to in the video ?
A hunter walked one kilometer south from his camp. Then he walked one kilometer west. There he shot a bear. Then he walked one kilometer north, and found that he was back at his camp. What color was the bear?
Nice one. So that’s why all the poley bears are dying really.
the gall of these people:http://www.3news.co.nz/Worst-case-climate-scenario-looking-more-likely/tabid/1160/articleID/327000/Default.aspx
Thanks, John (it is AW’s appearance on KUSI TV) – I couldn’t watch the direct link, presumably because I am outside the US.
Rescue by Chinese helicopter is apparently underway – does anyone have any news?
Doug Jones says: January 1, 2014 at 8:45 pm
The Polar Star is on its way, see http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/367255000
and click on the live map for updates. Man, we really are in the 21st century…
She turned to starboard at 10:45 GMT approx. and is heading for the bright lights of Sydney at the moment at 10.5 knots.
Re:-
“The Polar Star is on its way, ……..heading for the bright lights of Sydney …”
That crew must be relieved too.
bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25573096
The BBC website has just announced all tourists are rescued and are on the Australis.
The report also said one purpose was to investigate the disappearing sea ice…
From the you-couldn’t-make-it-up dept.
” The report also said one purpose was to investigate the disappearing sea ice…”
Well I suppose … if there were no ice they wouldn’t be able to watch it disappearing.
Now there is though, are they any longer equipped to watch it ?
The crew must be relieved.
johanna on January 2, 2014 at 2:19 am
says:
” Thanks, John (it is AW’s appearance on KUSI TV) – I couldn’t watch the direct link, presumably because I am outside the US. ”
fwiw.
I couldn’t get that direct link to work either from a Smart Phone (Apple), in GB, but it was OK when I switched to the Desktop view.
WUWT is my first port of call everytime i go on line. Anthony, methinks your a legend in the making. By the way, did not Mr Gore go to The Antarctic last year in the hope of photographing penguins dying from heat exhaustion or whatever else he could find to scare the kids back home. I heard no results, can someone help with the outcome of that little soiree.
The irony is so rich.
Anthony, thanks for demonstrating what a class act you are.
Mod says –
[ Miriam O’brien is “Sou” where you got that content from -mod]
Never heard of her. The content in question was a satire on warmist thinking (term used looooosely), and came entirely from within my own pointy little head. From the sounds of it, the truth of warmist thinking is truly stranger than any fiction one might imagine about them. Ha!
Congratulations to the Ice Breaker crews the Helicopter crew and the huge International effort backing them up with all the benefits of modern technology.
Does that chopper really have twin main rotors stacked on top of each other ?
( I suppose it must be a great help in the rarified atmosphere of Climate Science:)
Franny from Svenska says:
January 2, 2014 at 6:44 am
Congratulations to the Ice Breaker crews the Helicopter crew and the huge International effort backing them up with all the benefits of modern technology.
Does that chopper really have twin main rotors stacked on top of each other ?
( I suppose it must be a great help in the rarified atmosphere of Climate Science:)
http://www.pbase.com/llukee/image/153992786 here is a picture of one taken in Peru. It is a KA 32 Russian built helicopter. the counter rotating main blades allow for the aircraft to fly without a tail rotor freeing more power to the main blades.
So the Chinese used a Russian helicopter?
The Russians do make wonderful helicopters.
I don’t think the Chinese have developed their own yet (some things are harder to copy then others). They may be building some Russian varieties under licence.
Anthony, this is what we call ‘standing tall.’ When people call for support we have to put all the past behind us and do our best to support them, which you did. Well done! Congratulations.
General P. Malaise says:
On January 2, 2014 at 7:15 am
” http://www.pbase.com/llukee/image/153992786 here is a picture of one taken in Peru. It is a KA 32 Russian built helicopter. the counter rotating main blades allow for the aircraft to fly without a tail rotor freeing more power to the main blades. ”
I guess that means if one rotor fails they’re pretty stuffed then – just like a tail rotor failing, or could they survive by switching off both rotors and allowing them to autorotate (auto-contra-rotate I guess) ?
General P. Malaise says:
On January 2, 2014 at 7:15 am
” http://www.pbase.com/llukee/image/153992786 here is a picture of one taken in Peru. It is a KA 32 Russian built helicopter. the counter rotating main blades allow for the aircraft to fly without a tail rotor freeing more power to the main blades. ”
I guess that means if one rotor fails they’re pretty stuffed then – just like a tail rotor failing, or could they survive by switching off both rotors and allowing them to autorotate (auto-contra-rotate I guess) ?
===================================
http://usafhpa.com/2012/09/02/h-43-huskie/ This is the one I flew. HH-43 Husky, dual inter-meshing rotors. Technically a syncropter, not a helicopter. There was no procedure for loss of one mast that I recall; not to be contemplated.
What’s that Anthony was saying in the Video a few comments up, about Russian technology, while being rather kinder about Climate Scientists who cannt help themselves 🙂
a tail rotor failure does not mean you are stuffed. there are fail safes built in. physically losing a blade would be like losing a wing on an airplane in which case you are stuffed.
the rotors are driven by the same shaft. this particular helicopter has 2 engines driving a single transmission. it will fly on one engine within certain parameters.
No idea what a TiGT is… Have I mentioned lately that I hate acronyms? Not enough data redundancy in them to know what they mean….
@TheLastDemocrat:
White. Camp is at the North Pole….
@All:
Yes, it’s quite possible to have 2 contra rotating lift blades. One on top of the other or offset to the sides or fore aft and synchronized. In some ways more elegant than tail rotor designs…
Thanks Anthony for what you did btw 0n dec 17 the ship was @168.32E longitude, now on Jan 2 (after the rescue) where they are on that wind map is a large pocket of stagnant air, it may be a while longer before that Katabatic wind gets there I sincerely hope the Russian crew makes it out. Oh are the CoastGuard still going down there to assist that ship do you know?
“I had looked at what was happening and saw what I thought might be an opening in 7-8 days based on the forecast graphics from WeatherBell, where the winds would shift to offshore in the area where Akademik Shokalskiy was stuck.”
That was 12/31/13 it is now 01/07/14 and we have this report.
Antarctic break: Russian, Chinese stranded ships navigate out of ice trap
http://rt.com/news/antarctic-ice-trap-freed-274/
Hindsight. Is a wonderful thing but foresight is even better when you have it. If this Alarmist band had sat it out, as Mawson would have, instead of making all the song and dance then they could have got away with much less damage to their cause when the opening forecast by Anthony arrived , right on cue.
For directions in Antarctica the Prime Meridian is north. It is the line of longitude that separates east and west Antarctica.
http://www.mapsofworld.com/antarctica/
The winds are taken in a system called grid north where 0 degrees is north and 180 degrees is south.
http://www.usap.gov/travelAndDeployment/documents/FieldManual-Chapt21AntarcticNavigation.pdf