Today, while shopping at lunchtime for some last minute year end supplies, I got one of the strangest cell-phone calls ever. It was from my friend John Coleman, the founder of the Weather Channel and Chief meteorologist at KUSI-TV in San Diego. He was calling via cell phone from his car, and he was on his way into the TV station early.
He started off by saying, “Anthony, we have a really strange situation here”.
Then to my surprise, he relayed a conversation he had just had; a person on the Akademik Shokalskiy had reached out, because they didn’t have adequate weather data on-board. At first, I thought John was pulling my leg, but then as he gave more details, I realized he was serious.
What had happened was that the US Coast Guard had received a message from the ship, requesting weather and wind information for Antarctica. That got relayed to someone at the Scripps oceanographic Institute in San Diego, and it went to John’s weekend KUSI meteorologist Dave Scott. Dave had worked with a scientist who is now on the US Coast Guard IceBreaker Polar Star, and they had logged the request for weather for forecast data from Akademik Shokalskiy. That’s how all this got started.
The message was that they needed better weather information on the ship than they had, specifically about wind and how it might affect the breakup of sea ice. John asked me to gather everything I had on the area and send it, and also to help him contact Joe D’Aleo of WeatherBell Analytics, because somehow John’s cellphone had gotten stuck into some sort of “private caller” mode and Joe wasn’t answering his phone due to how the incoming call looked.
My first thought was that no matter how much we’ve been criticizing the expedition for its silliness, that if such a request had reached all the way from Antarctica to me, I’d do everything I could to help.
I told John “give me 15 minutes”, which was about the time I’d need to get out of COSTCO and get back to my office and send along some things I knew would help.
I immediately called Joe D’Aleo at WeatherBell, who was as incredulous as I at the request, and asked him to call John Coleman right away. I explained to him that we had to remember that we were dealing with a Russian ship, not a military ship, but a charter vessel and they likely didn’t have all the tools that American meteorologists had and may not even know where to look for better data. I also pointed out that the Australian scientists on-board were climatologists, and not operational weather forecasters, and finding this sort of weather data probably wasn’t in their skill set.
Joe started working from the WeatherBell end, I finished my shopping and headed back to the office. As I drove, I started thinking about the situation with the ship there. They had wind compressing the ice into shore, with the Akademik Shokalskiy in the middle, and the wind wasn’t changing. They needed a wind shift in order to ease the pressure on the ice but they had no idea when that might happen. It was a waiting game, and as we know, the longer a ship remains trapped in sea ice, the greater its chances of having a hull breach due to the pressure.
I knew just what to send, because it was something that had been discussed several times by commenters on WUWT.
When I got back to the office, I no more than pulled up the bookmark and press send on the email with a brief description of the operational weather data model that covered the region and John Coleman was on the phone again. He asked me to talk to Dave Scott and explain what I had just sent over. I called Dave immediately and relayed the email.
I sent a live link that provided this image of Antarctica, and I noted in a Tweet about the same time:
Just had a request for Antarctic wind and FC data come up via Scripps from #spiritofmawson ship. KUSI, WeatherBell, WUWT all happy to help.
— Watts Up With That (@wattsupwiththat) December 31, 2013
This map shows winds for area ship is trapped in. Waiting for katabatic winds to return which will clear ice. pic.twitter.com/XqCU6NfWWK
— Watts Up With That (@wattsupwiththat) December 31, 2013
Dave listened intently to my explanation and then thanked me saying “this is exactly what we need”. I then started to do some research into the extensive library of operational forecast products put together by our friend Dr. Ryan Maue of WeatherBell which can be seen at http://models.weatherbell.com/ About that same time I get a new email from Joe D’Aleo, and he had sorted out the maps needed and had sent an email to John, Dave, and I.
In a couple of minutes John Coleman was back on the phone to me, he wanted my assessment of the maps. I had looked at what was happening and saw what I thought might be an opening in 7-8 days based on the forecast graphics from WeatherBell, where the winds would shift to offshore in the area where Akademik Shokalskiy was stuck. Like we discussed in the WUWT post yesterday Polynyas are very important for marine life and cooling the oceans I had hoped that a coastal polyna might open up near the ship. We also discussed the possibility of a low pressure system passing nearby that might help break up the ice. I didn’t express much hope for that.
The problem is that they are in a catch-22 now, they need strong offshore winds to help blow the sea ice out to open water, but at the same time they need calm or light winds for a safe helicopter rescue.
John Coleman and Dave Scott put together a video news story which ran on the KUSI 6PM News tonight. I was interviewed for the story, and you can watch it here:
http://www.kusi.com/video?clipId=9686594&autostart=true
Watching the wind is the key to the way out of the situation the Akademik Shokalskiy is in. This near real-time wind model is worth watching, and it updates every three hours with new observations, click on the image to start it.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=144.30,-66.68,3000
Note the green circle marker, which is the approximate location the Akademik Shokalskiy is at. Winds are running parallel to the coast, and pushing ice up against the edge of the Commonwealth Bay.
Despite the irony and folly of the situation, I’m sure readers will join me in the hope that everyone makes it off the ship safely, whether it is by helicopter or by the ship being freed from the ice.
Related articles
- All scientists and passengers to be taken off ship stuck in Antarctic Ice (wattsupwiththat.com)
Alan Watt, Climate Denialist Level 7 says:
January 1, 2014 at 12:07 pm
When life is threatened you accept a normally forbidden lesser risk to avoid the much more likely greater loss resulting from doing nothing.
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Alan, this is the greatest mistake rescuers can make. Not understanding the risk and breaking the rules by rushing in. Ask anyone who is responsible for safety. The key is to stick to the plan. These people are not in short-term danger. They aren’t dangling from a cliff or stuck in a car that is about to explode.
The simple rule here is to keep everyone safe, warm and in good spirits while you wait for the right time to make your move. Everything has to fall into place. They need good weather and they need the Aurora alongside. If it takes eight days it takes eight days.
AW, just be VERY wary of these guys.
They will use you, then throw you to the wolves !!
From a commentary piece by The Australian:
“Had the expedition found the slightest evidence to confirm its expectation of melting ice caps and thin ice, a major new scare about the plight of the planet would have followed. ”
That is correct. But now that it’s clear that the Antarctic ice cap is not melting and the ice (whatever its vintage) is not so thin, will the reverse be trumpeted?
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/editorials/stuck-on-a-ship-of-cold-fools/story-e6frg71x-1226793309195
The pre-departure footage in the ABC report on the other post showed Prof Turkey wasting fossil fuels by joy-riding round in, as I recall, an 8-man all terrain vehicle that was to be used by the exhibition to venture away from the mother ship.
Why hasn’t that been deployed to help to get people to the rescue vessels? Is the ice too dangerous? Is there some factor that means they get it out of the hold? Or did they decide to devote the space to something more important (like booze or bananas)?
There might be another problem if they have to wait for the Polar Star to arrive in 10 days or so. Note that on the daily sea ice graph there was a slight increase in the trend line about 16 days ago. I had noticed a similar jump in the trend line back in August/September, which made me wonder if there was going to be another boost to the sea ice in early October that would take it to a new high. I made several comments about that and as it turned out my thought was right, which is not to say that I understand the ‘why’ of what was happening. I now see that there may be a similar occurrence which should start by late next week. You can see where there was an upward jump in the sea ice trend around the 12th of December. There should be another one late next week. Also, note that in 2012/2013 the sea ice dramatically deviated from the norm right at the beginning of January, as the trend line moved from average to +2 standard deviation during the month of January last year. It could be ready to do similar again. If it does then there could be an earlier refreeze down there than ever seen before.
” Luck-Baker pauses briefly to feign careful consideration, but says “as a success” because some particular penguin species’ numbers are greatlly depleted.” I’m wondering how he can know this, since the adellie penguins should be nesting on rocky land quite a number of miles from the ships location. Is it impossible that most are where they are supposed to be rather than on ice near the ship?
Alan Watt, Hollywood needs you! That was hilarious (and also scarily believable).
Kudos to Anthony et al for showing a lot more in the way of ethics and grace than we have come to expect from the extreme end of the alarmist cult.
JJ says:
[snip – sorry, we don’t allow content from Internet stalker “Sou” aka Miriam O’Brien, here anymore. She’s entitled to her opinion, and she has her own blog to spew it with. I note nobody contacted her for information. – Anthony]
Huh?
Who is Miriam O’Brien, and why are you confusing me with her?
[ Miriam O’brien is “Sou” where you got that content from -mod]
Babushka! Come keep comrade warm! Play Beatles song Back In The USSR! Nothing else to do here … Tovarisch please repeat? You say Cold War is over? Does this mean Hot War is here? …
Maybe they think they’ve found Noah’s Ark?
Where is the North Coast of Antarctica, as John Coleman refers to in the video ?
the Antarctic is a dangerous place anytime. These guys are lucky there is support readily available. A friend of mine was flying helicopters off a ship in Antarctic years ago. It was a German ship with international crews of researchers. They had 5 helicopters (HU50) and the first day on location the ice sheared the bottom of the ship off. The only flying they did was evacuate the crew to a research station. Luckily the bar bill went to the bottom with the ship.
Rescue operations likely to commence shortly in Antarctic
http://www.amsa.gov.au/media/documents/02012014AkademikShokalskiyUpdate9_Media_Release.pdf
https://twitter.com/AMSA_News
So hubby asked why I thought a song about a dissappointed and broken pirate would make a good theme song for the passengers and crew of this ship. I explained that I view global climate change science as an easy pirating of “American (and other wealthy nations’) gold” gone wrong. Have a listen and tell me if you agree. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UMV34CwNMY0
As this saga unfolds, the net global polar sea ice has reached a new milestone since 1979 to start the new year. With the southern anomaly at +1.529 and the northern one at -0.497 the net is over the million square kilometre mark at +1.032 million square kilometres of extra ice.
Lance Hilpert says:
January 1, 2014 at 7:21 am
” . . . and had sent an email to John, Dave, and I.” And “I??”
C’mon Anthony, even in California it should be “and me.”
[Reply: Correct. But don’t blame Anthony: in the 1960’s I was taught in a gov’t school that “and I” was proper. ~ mod.]
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And I. Definately. But then the UK and the US are two countries divided by a common language.
The queen says “my husband and I”, she doesn’t say “my husband and me”.
Don’t get me started, I’m a closet grammar nazi. For example, “C’mon” (above) is not a valid conjuntion, but then neither is “won’t”, when you think about it. So I’ll admit it’s confusing, especially on New Year’s day. Probably best not to go down this road….”
Uh, no. It’s “me.” John, Dave and ME are objects of the verb “sent”. The easiest way to work it out is to use the names singly and see if it makes sense, i.e. “had sent an email to me.” Nobody would say “had sent an email to I.”
When the Queen says ‘My husband and I” they are subjects of the verb – i.e. “my husband and I went out last night.” She may well say “my husband and me” if the context is “the PM sent a letter to my husband and me.”
The Queen would Never use me or my.
That would rather be “… one and one’s husband received a letter from the PM” , although more commonly she would simply use we, as in the Royal We…, As in eg. We are not amused.
ABC (Australia) news is reporting that a helicopter rescue will be attempted this morning.
Local observation:
Temp 4.2C
Wind ESE at 37km’hr
Alan Watt, Climate Denialist Level 7 says:
January 1, 2014 at 9:06 am
Hilarious!
“…at the same time they need calm or light winds for a safe helicopter rescue.”
It’s been many years, but I was actually a Rescue Crew Commander flying a helicopter at one time. Of course, calm or light winds are to be preferred. Depending on the machine and the pilots skill a fair amount of wind could be alright. 25 mph maybe, and steady? Another problem is visibility. Need to see the ice. Might be able to sight on the ship and bring it down safely. Pretty wide open according to the photos. I’d be willing to have a go at it.
Edit…landing on the ship is probably the bigger challenge.
M Courtney says:
January 1, 2014 at 11:38 am
Stuart Elliot says at January 1, 2014 at 9:48 am
While the irony is clear and delicious for us skeptics, nothing much has changed in the popular media and amongst the vested interests.
M. Courtney:
But it has. This was a stunning defensive win. The propagandists spent a lot of money coming up with a combined Aussie BC, BBC and Guardian followed press junket. It was timed for the Festive period when there isn’t much news. It was a big push for 2014. And it failed.
The media has dropped it form the news. Even though a news story that goes wrong and ends up needing rescue is exciting and newsworthy.. even so they have dropped it.
Folks,
Both FOX news and Breitbart news are running stories on The Ship Of Fools today.
FOX video report: http://video.foxnews.com/v/2998361715001/antarctic-expedition-still-trapped-by-ice/?intcmp=HPBucket&playlist_id=922779230001
Breitbart report: http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2013/12/31/Global-Warming-Experts-still-Stuck-in-Ice
USA Today & Drudge Report:
Cold facts: More record lows than highs in USA in 2013
http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2013/12/31/record-cold-temperatures/4264237/
@M Courtney, 12:03
I get your point but I stand by mine.
Perception is (always) constructive; memory is (almost always) re-constructive. We see things, we remember things by placing them within world-views, schemata, narratives (thank you Andy West).
These people and others like them are not demonstrating their lack of integrity – on the contrary, they will increasingly be fighting to maintain the integrity of a system of thought which is unsupported by the evidence (aka ‘delusional’). The reasoning will get more and more tortuous – we’ve already seen the deep dark oceans and the remote unknown unmonitored areas of the earth recruited to harbour heat in order to balance the visible universe. The ice, to them, will be there as a consequence of some larger invisible balancing context which fits it into the previous warming scenario. We’ve seen it in some of the explanations floating off the ship – conjuring mermaids and monsters while becalmed…
@AndyG55, 12:47
Yes – people will be bitten, until the biter’s bit, unfortunately.
Stuart B
I suspect that the request for weather (wind) information is coming from the crew of the ship, not the so-called researchers. The climate alarmists could care less about the ship and just want to get off. The crew of course are concerned about the ship and it hull and they need to know what’s in store for them while they remain behind.
I hope that this turns into a mass extinction event, not of lives but of reputations.
No Really, the ice is there because of warming.
It was all explained 9 months ago, to the day.
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-21991487