Method uses the Ap geomagnetic index, which has been in a slump since October 2005:
The Hockey Schtick tips us to a paper published today in Advances in Space Research predicts that if the current lull in solar activity “endures in the 21st century the Sun shall enter a Dalton-like grand minimum. It was a period of global cooling.”
The graph they produced with the paper:
The author uses a new “empirical technique invoking three-cycle quasi-periodicity (TCQP) in Ap index” of solar geomagnetic activity to predict sunspot activity several years in advance.
The author notes solar activity has been at a higher level in the 20th century saying”
“the Sun has emerged from a Grand Maximum, which includes solar cycle 19, the most active solar cycle in the last 400 years. Earth was cooler in Grand Minima. The trend line indicates we have entered a period of low solar activity.”
Note the red horizontal line on the graph show 50-year mean solar activity was at the highest levels of the past 300 years during the latter half of the 20th century.
The author also has a slide show that has some interesting elements. For example, here is their TCQP of the Ap Index:
They summarize:
The paper:
An empirical approach to predicting the key parameters for a sunspot number cycle
H.S. Ahluwalia University of New Mexico, Department of Physics & Astronomy
Abstract
The common methodologies used to predict the smooth sunspot number (SSN) at peak (Rmax) and the rise time (Tr) for a cycle are noted. The estimates based on geomagnetic precursors give the best prediction of Rmax for five SSN cycles (20-24). In particular, an empirical technique invoking three-cycle quasi-periodicity (TCQP) in Ap index has made accurate predictions of Rmax and Tr for two consecutive SSN cycles (23 and 24). The dynamo theories are unable to account for TCQP. If it endures in the 21st century the Sun shall enter a Dalton-like grand minimum. It was a period of global cooling. The current status of the ascending phase of cycle 24 is described and the delayed reversal of the solar polar field reversal in the southern hemisphere in September 2013 is noted.
Open access here: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0273117713007473
Annual Mean Sunspot Numbers
I beg your pardon, I messed up the copying above of the link to my 10:16am today post on the Josh 2014 Calendar thread. Please scroll down to the bottom (or nearly so) of that thread.
Glaedelig Jul!
Leif As I remember Mrs Berra said ” If you don’t believe it you won’t see it”
Is the beryllium 10Be ice core proxy reliable?
Sparks says:
December 4, 2013 at 11:16 am
Is the beryllium 10Be ice core proxy reliable?
…………..
If you consider solar activity + local precipitation as a single variable yes, for each component individually no.
Leif
But that’s not the interesting part of the modulation. The interesting part is the long term trend, which may have climatic effect. (11 or 22 yrs is not climate)
vukcevic says:
December 4, 2013 at 11:40 am
If you consider solar activity + local precipitation as a single variable yes, for each component individually no.
Last night I decided to plot the 10Be record against two other data sets, 1. Leif’s sunspot numbers and 2. my own orbital data, and there’s an interesting period of 50-65 year lag between the sunspot numbers and orbital data, this also matches the AMO/PDO cycle, but the 10Be matches when it is offset by period of 50-65 years.
I understand that it is believed that weak solar cycles allow more Be10 to be produced from cosmic rays and deposited in ice, but what I am looking at suggests, that Be 10 is formed in space during high solar activity and is then deposited 50-65 years later during weaker solar activity.
I used this ngrip data, NOTE: there are some dates missing from the timeline. no data??
ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/icecore/greenland/summit/ngrip/ngrip-10be.txt
@vukcevic
My reply to you seems to be held in moderation, I hope someone notices 😉
I’m a bit Confused about the moderation lol
Moderation is my fault, some 3 weeks ago (Friday Funny November 15, 2013 at 5:24 am) I re-posted this cartoon with wording which didn’t contain ‘sarc’ and got myself into a bit of a trouble; as a self-punishment I took 2 weeks voluntary exile, but still anything containing my name goes into mod’s bin.
@ur momisugly Sparks
CET is more often then not affected by shifts in the polar jet stream, as I assume is the Greenland precipitation. For a test I suggest plotting 11 year moving averages of 10Be (inverted and delayed by 5-6 years) and the CET from1660.
Vuk Looks like the delay may be 10 – 12 years
see Fig 3 http://adsabs.harvard.edu/full/2005ESASP.560…19U
Dr Norman Page says:
December 4, 2013 at 10:46 am
Leif As I remember Mrs Berra said ” If you don’t believe it you won’t see it”
Either way, for some it comes down to mere belief, rather than solid science. I understand where you are coming from as far as beliefs are concerned. My bar is set a bit higher than yours.
Sparks says:
December 4, 2013 at 11:16 am
Is the beryllium 10Be ice core proxy reliable?
Yes, but is it a mixture of several effects, most of which are not solar.
lgl says:
December 4, 2013 at 11:40 am
The interesting part is the long term trend, which may have climatic effect. (11 or 22 yrs is not climate)
Some cosmic ray experts think that part of the variation is CAUSED by climate changes, so you may have cause and effect reversed:
“The reconstruction of Steinhilber et al. [2010] still differs somewhat with the geomagnetic based reconstructions, especially for the ∼1880–1900 interval (Figure 14) and, just like the previous discrepancy, this will need to be resolved. We suggest that if the sharp dip around ~895 is not borne out by further investigation, the magnitude of earlier excursions to very low values may also be in doubt. Figure 15 shows IDV for all stations for the interval 1880–1920 and does not support the marked decrease around ~1895. It is unlikely that data from further stations will change that conclusion. In line with this conclusion, W. R. Webber et al. (A comparison of new calculations of the yearly 10Be production in the Earth’s polar atmosphere by cosmic rays with yearly 10Be measurements in multiple Greenland ice cores between 1939 and 1994: — A troubling lack of concordance, manuscript in preparation, 2010) suggest that “more than 50% of the 10Be flux increase around, e.g., 1700 A.D., 1810 A.D. and 1895 A.D. is due to non-production related increases.” [Climate, weather].
meemoe_uk says:
December 4, 2013 at 8:04 am
the sudden acceleration of the solar wind near the sun.
By the way, it is gravity that accelerates the solar wind to supersonic speeds.
Dear Dr. Svalgaard,
I think I copied the link correctly this time!
Glaedelig Jul!
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/11/30/the-josh-wuwt-2014-climate-skeptics-calendar-is-now-available/#comment-1491494
Gratefully,
Janice
Janice Moore says:
December 4, 2013 at 6:20 pm
Glaedelig Jul!
Thank you. Mange tak.
@ur momisugly Dr. Svalgaard — Du er meget velkommen!
My pleasure.
Janice Moore says:
December 4, 2013 at 6:42 pm
Du er meget velkommen!
Just don’t overdue the Hero-stuff. Some people might choke on that. Just keep on learning combined with some thinking.
@ur momisugly Dr. Svalgaard — Anyone who would choke on that would be better off remaining silent until they can swallow the truth. The reason they choke is: A. pride and or B. stupidity. B is a hopeless case; fugeddaboudit. Only those who self-correct A will have brains unchoked enough to understand you. “A fool finds no pleasure in understanding but delights in airing his or her own opinions.” Proverbs 18:2.
You are doing all YOU can to help them, that is for sure.
YOU ARE THE BEST! #(:))
Yeah, I’m a crazy American, not a dignified Dane, lol. At least, on WUWT, I am an anomaly. Okay, okay, an “outlier.” You won’t encounter another zany like I for a long time, no doubt. And I’ll try not to embarrass you anymore ……… today (heh, heh).
Current sheets like the heliocurrent sheet (sheath), contains Double Layers or is made up of? That must be fluctuating over solar cycle?
So we got gravity, magnetic fields and double layers all playing with and sometimes against each other within the solar system? Doesn’t seem more simple to me. Another facet in the processes oh boy..
This article describes Saturns magnetodisc, as a current sheet.
Modelling the Forces in Saturn’s Warped Magnetodisc
Achilleos, N.; Arridge, C. S.; Guio, P.
EGU General Assembly 2012, held 22-27 April, 2012 in Vienna, Austria., p.8582
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..14.8582A
Observations from the Cassini spacecraft have established that Saturn’s outer magnetospheric current sheet does not generally lie in the planet’s rotational equatorial plane. Previous analyses have revealed that the current sheet adopted a ‘bowl-like’ shape, swept northwards of the equator, during the Cassini prime mission (southern summer solstice). In order to quantify the relationship between solar wind dynamic pressure, planetary dipole tilt, and the shape of the near-noon current sheet, we examine a simple model of magnetopause currents within systems where the planetary dipole / rotation axis is oriented at ~65 degrees (solstice) and 90 degrees (equinox) to the upstream flow direction of the solar wind. We use this simple model to compute the ‘shielding field’ for the UCL Magnetodisc Model. We show model predictions of the north-south asymmetry in the current sheet for varying dipole orientations and magnetopause sizes. We comment on the potential application of using observed magnetic signatures of current sheet displacement (relative to the equator) as an independent probe of solar wind pressure.
Carla says:
December 4, 2013 at 7:38 pm
Current sheets like the heliocurrent sheet (sheath), contains Double Layers or is made up of? That must be fluctuating over solar cycle?
No, such current sheets a ‘drift currents’. Charges gyrate [circles with arrows] around magnetic field lines, and where the is a change of the direction of the field lines, charges will move in the same direction and a current [big arrow] results:
[ http://www.leif.org/research/Current-Sheet-Cartoon.png ]
Near the heliopause many currents sheets are bunched up against each other:
http://www.leif.org/research/Heliospheric%20Current%20Sheet%20Cartoon.pdf
No double layers involved.
lsvalgaard says:
December 4, 2013 at 8:09 pm
http://www.leif.org/research/Current-Sheet-Cartoon.png
[Did you need this link (to the sketch of loops with an arrow in the center) to replace the link in the comment above? Both appear to be the same. Mod]
lsvalgaard says:
December 4, 2013 at 8:16 pm
lsvalgaard says:
December 4, 2013 at 8:09 pm
http://www.leif.org/research/Current-Sheet-Cartoon.png
[Did you need this link (to the sketch of loops with an arrow in the center) to replace the link in the comment above? Both appear to be the same. Mod]
There is no pdf, it should be a png.
The solar Northern hemisphere is roughly 14 months ahead of the solar Southern hemisphere. The solar Northern hemisphere is now spotless. The solar Southern hemisphere is repeating the pattern of change that occurred in the solar Northern hemisphere. As the magnetic field intensity of the magnetic flux tubes that are created at the tachocline declines the turbulent forces in the convection zone start to tear them apart.
As the decline in magnetic field strength of the magnetic flux tubes progresses the large sunspots are replaced with groups of small sunspots. The second stage is a couple of small sunspots and a region of the solar surface with magnetic flux. The third stage is no sunspots and regions of the solar surface with magnetic flux. It will be interesting to see if there is a fourth stage.
It appears, if the solar Southern hemisphere follows the solar Northern hemisphere that the sun will be in a very, very, deep special Maunder minimum by roughly September of 2014.
This is a current visual picture of the sun.
http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_4096_4500.jpg
This is what is called a Magnetogram which shows the regions of the solar surface that have magnetic flux.
http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_HMIB.jpg
William Astley says:
December 5, 2013 at 7:58 am
The solar Northern hemisphere is roughly 14 months ahead of the solar Southern hemisphere.
This is very normal. The situation now is not special. Almost all cycles show such asymmetry.
As the magnetic field intensity of the magnetic flux tubes that are created at the tachocline declines the turbulent forces in the convection zone start to tear them apart.
All flux tubes are always torn apart all the time, then re-assemble on the surface. The situation now is not special.
It appears, if the solar Southern hemisphere follows the solar Northern hemisphere that the sun will be in a very, very, deep special Maunder minimum by roughly September of 2014.
As today is not in any way special, there is no reason to believe what you assert.
The concentration and depth of the beryllium 10Be ice core proxy looks fine, how are they assigning the date to the ice-core depth, is it based on a model and do you know if the model uses the sunspot record?
Sparks says:
December 5, 2013 at 8:57 am
The concentration and depth of the beryllium 10Be ice core proxy looks fine, how are they assigning the date to the ice-core depth, is it based on a model and do you know if the model uses the sunspot record?
If there are annual layers they count those, otherwise they use an average yearly accumulation to count years. Sunspots are not used.