Guest essay by Steve Goreham
Originally published in The Washington Times
The year 2013 has been a great year for global agriculture. Record world production of rice and healthy production of wheat and corn produced strong harvests across the world. These gains were achieved despite continuing predictions that world agricultural output is headed for a decline.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) reports that world rice harvests for 2012/2013 were a record 469 million metric tons. Corn and wheat harvests were also strong, following record harvests for both grains during the 2011/2012 season. The USDA is now projecting world record harvests for corn, wheat, and rice for 2013/2014.
See this graph:
These numbers cap a 50-year trend of remarkable growth in world grain production. Since 1960, global wheat and rice production has tripled, and corn production is almost five times higher.
For decades, doomsayers predicted that food production would fail to keep up with the needs of humanity. In 1972, Donella Meadows and others of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology published The Limits to Growth, which asked the question, “Do these rather dismal statistics mean that the limits of food production on the earth have already been reached?” Paul Ehrlich wrote in The End of Affluence in 1974, “Due to a combination of ignorance, greed and callousness, a situation has been created that could lead to a billion or more people starving to death.”
But Norman Borlaug’s development of disease-resistant, high-yield strains of wheat and rice had already revolutionized twentieth century agriculture. A few years before Meadows and Ehrlich warned about coming famines, Borlaug’s wheat and rice were introduced into Latin America and Asia with astounding results. Mexico’s wheat production soared six-fold by 1970 from levels in the 1940s. India’s wheat production jumped from a huge deficit in 1965 to a surplus only five years later.
Food production continues to grow faster than population. Data from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations shows a 30 percent gain in the per capita agricultural production index from 1980 to 2010. World citizens have access to more grain, meat, dairy products, and fruits and vegetables. Even fish production is climbing with large gains in aquaculture fish farming.
The increased availability of food reduced the undernourished portion of the world’s population from 18.6 percent in 1990 to 12.5 percent in 2010, according to the FAO. A total of 868 million people are still classified as undernourished.
Today’s leading agriculture alarmists are proponents of the ideology of Climatism, the belief that man-made greenhouse gases are destroying Earth’s climate. Earlier this month, a leaked draft report from Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicted that man-made climate change would reduce global agricultural production yields by up to two percent per decade throughout the twenty-first century.
Lester Brown’s Earth Policy Institute has long been a predictor of agricultural collapse. His website states, “…climate change is heightening the likelihood of weather extremes, like heat waves, droughts, and flooding, that can so easily decimate harvests.” Even the USDA warns that man-made climate change threatens US agriculture.
Yet, one must wonder when the climate-damaging effects on agriculture will appear. The IPCC states that 1983-2012 was likely the warmest 30-year period in the Northern Hemisphere of the last 1,400 years. Certainly we should have seen some negative agricultural impact by now?
Maybe rising agricultural production is like rising polar bear populations―the decline begins tomorrow.
Steve Goreham is Executive Director of the Climate Science Coalition of America and author of the book The Mad, Mad, Mad World of Climatism: Mankind and Climate Change Mania.
The models of the Club of Rome were worse than we thought.
ANTHONY /MODS: Thorsten at 4:56 is TOTALLY out of line. Racist posts do not belong here.
The last three sentences are repulsive! Please consider a “snip”
[Last sentence snipped. We try not to censor too heavily. Comments critical of the UN do not violate site Policy. — mod.]
GeeJam, it would be correct to say that atmospheric CO2 has increased by 86 ten thousandths of a percentage point.
But going from 314 ppm to 400 ppm is actually about a 27% increase.
400-314 = 86. 86/314 = 0.27 or 27%
An increase of 86 ppm in CO2 isn’t much when compared to the 999,914 ppm of the atmosphere that is not CO2 but for a plant, a 27%~ increase in avaiable CO2 is not an insignificant change.
Thorsten,
Do you believe in freedom of speech? Then go and stand outside the House of Congress, use a loud speaker and repeat what you just wrote here. You are despicable.
Dear United States,
Whilst you are enjoying your Thanksgiving feasts please lend a thought to the average African in sub-Saharan Africa. He/she can expect to go to bed, in the dark, hungry tonight and every night. As was said by Steve.B above, you can send 100,000 men to the Middle East, equip, feed and sustain them with little apparent effort, yet the distribution of the mountain of food being produced globally cannot be achieved.
Here’s a tiny example that I know of. My Mother, then aged 91, left Zambia last year to go and live with my sister in Johannesburg. She ’employed’ 5 able-bodied African men. She officially employed only two, the other three worked for the food she gave. She also made up food parcels for the ‘unofficial’ workers to take home. I am in regular correspondence with a Zambian who I have known forty years and who knew my Mother very well (he drove her down to the Kafue River where she went fishing regularly up to the age of ninety!). He has informed me that three of the men who worked for my Mother are now dead and the other two have become widowers.
I have no idea as to the causes of the deaths; AIDS, malnutrition, malaria? Who knows. All I know is that any improvement in food supply, medical treatment, education, access to cheap, reliable electricity and having a less corrupt Government would bring untold benefits to millions. And that is in only one country, Zambia.
Janice Moore says:
November 26, 2013 at 8:36 pm
As others have indicated – excellent post.
Albert Einstein – paraphrased – the finest product of the human mind is Compound Interest
Nearly nine million people across the UK are living with serious debt problems, according to a new report.
The Money Advice Service (MAS) also said very few people were making any attempt to get professional help.
If you know anyone in need of help – guide them, please.
Thanks.
Auto.
To counter Thorsten at 4:56, I have seen Zambian farmers driven into penury by the actions/inactions of a vastly corrupt political clique. In Zambia they are called wapamwamba, in Tanzania they are called the wa-Benzi after the cars they always ride in.
Zambian farmers could prosper, given proper governance but that is something they have not got. Their biggest threat right now comes from the massive rise in the immigration of Chinese nationals setting up agricultural concerns with Chinese Government backing, undercutting the local farmers in every way possible. Even Zambia’s copper mines are now mostly Chinese owned.
The biggest issue holding back growth in Africa is political and economic concentration. It has been clearly demonstrated that economic growth depends on pluralistic eocnomic and political systems being in place. Africa being the classic example, as you have a number of countries that have significantly higher prosperity than others and the difference is basically whether the government has a power base spread over the wider population, and whether property rights are strong. I nthe countries with oppressive regimes and few property rights tehre are no incentives for growth/capital accumlation and what little exists is taken by the few at the top. Until oppressive regimes change there is no solution for Africa, and that can only be done by the will of the people (it cannot be imposed by external powers). Food production is not even close to being a limiting factor.
GeeJam, why would you need CO2 to be concentrated for plant growth if 400ppm is the broad concentration in the atmosphere? You do understand that ppm stands for “parts per million” right? If you concentrate it further then you go up the growth curve. It will make no different whether that 400ppm is enclosed or whether it is in the open atmosphere; the concentration is the same and the effect on plant growth is the same (BTW, naturally the plants grow during growing season, but these vary across the planet in timing. I dont know what you are getting at there). Time to take off your blinkers and accept what the data tells you. BTW in greenhouses the concentration is typically more like 1200ppm.
In Africa, there are countries which have growing economies and are actually asking to join the Commonwealth. Nigel Farage remarks on this potential benefits of trade with these Commonwealth countries:
“The Commonwealth isn’t a relic of empire, it’s become something modern and new. And there are actually African countries which were never part of the British Empire who are considering joining it. So people do see it as having some value. And it’s got some things that it shares: English language, Common Law, shared sense of history – and I think we under-use it massively….2 billion people live inside the Commonwealth, and some of those countries have some of the most dynamic, booming economies in the world, and what I would like to see is the Commonwealth turned into something that would be a free trade club. And that would not just benefit the rich, it would help black Africa to sell it’s agricultural produce to countries like ours without the massive tariffs that the EU puts on their products.”
ref: ITV Nigel Farage – Unblock EU trade and open up to the commonwealth, Nov 2013
Nigel Farage begin 2:28
Dear Auto,
Thank you, so much for your generous compliment. So glad to hear that someone thought that post was “excellent.” I suspect you may be a lot like Einstein. Over the past 7 months or so I’ve seen your super-sharp mind at work and your comment to me shows that you also have a caring heart.
Grateful for your fine science insights and for your kindness,
Janice
P.S. If I had to pick an “auto” to represent you, it would be that fine combination of beauty and performance, the Chevrolet Corvette. #(:))
cbrtxus says:
November 27, 2013 at 12:13 pm
GeeJam, it would be correct to say that . . . .
pete says:
November 27, 2013 at 5:40 pm
“GeeJam, why would you need . . . .
Hey guys, I’ll eat humble pie on this issue. I am neither a horticulturist or botanist and stand corrected. Thankyou both for putting me right. I now know that a tiny increase in CO2 can have a dramatic effect on plant growth.
http://www.plantsneedco2.org
Living in the grain belt, also near railroad tracks, I have noticed an increase in traffic on those tracks. The extra noise is tolerable knowing most of it goes towards food and this Thanksgiving will be better than the pilgrims had.
♥
Calling Paul Ehrlich……..calling Paul Ehrlich……call your office…..
Dear Gee Jam,
Good for you to acknowledge a mistake about the effect of CO2 on plant growth. Your underlying message, however (if I am not mistaken as to your intended meaning) is accurate. Human CO2 is outweighed by a magnitude of 3 by NATURAL CO2. While the AGW cult loudly asserts that human CO2 does mighty things, they have yet to prove that human CO2 is a significant causation of global plant growth. That is, the net rise in CO2 over the past 20 years or so may be entirely natural. You were on your way (just a bit of a bump in the road) to making an excellent point!
I hope you only ate a small bite of that humble pie, for I would like to send you a generous slice of virtual apple pie with a scoop of vanilla ice cream on top. Enjoy!
And watch this video for some excellent instruction about CO2, both human and natural.
On Thanksgiving, I’m thankful for Dr. Murry Salby!
#(:))
Your WUWT pal,
Janice
Dear Janice,
Your lovely words are very much appreciated – and thank you for the link to Dr Salby’s presentation. As you probably have already worked out, my personal obsession with the miniscule volume of anthropogenic CO2 (versus natural CO2) frequently takes over my life, when in truth, I should really be mowing the lawn, redecorating the lounge, taking ‘Will’ (our retriever for a walk) or filling in my tax return! There are probably a few other loyal WUWT commenters who’s lives are very much similar. I’ve been known to sit in our kitchen conservatory at ‘stupid o’clock’ in the morning researching the subject – and by 2.00 pm, I’m still in my dressing gown. Being a semi-retired graphic designer, I just want to reach out to those naïve enough to have been hoodwinked by warmist propaganda and give them a common-sense unscientific case that allows their stubborn minds to see sense. Frequently, it is the science that bamboozles them – and I think a lay persons viewpoint is often the only way to win them over. You may have seen my ‘list’ on another recent WUWT post (link below). Via e.mail, I have also asked A-t-ony if he would like the muti-page Pdf version of the ‘list’ to publish for new visitors to his excellent site. The Pdf is professionally visual (that’s what I do), light-hearted and thought-provoking.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/11/26/open-letter-to-lewis-black-and-george-clooney/#comment-1485207
Finally, I can also relate to Richard Dreyfus’s character in Speilberg’s ‘Close Encounters of the Third Kind’. Whilst being totally obsessed with finding the truth, he found solace in other people who shared the same goal, the same vision and same experience.
Best regards, your WUWT pal from across the ‘pond’.
GeeJam
The utter lack of cyclone preparedness in the Philippines ought to make everyone think.
They have the money to develop infrastructure, including disaster preparedness, medical care, roads, and so on.
What are we Westerners doing over there, rather than encouraging their development of such infrastructure?
http://reproductiverights.org/en/feature/a-right-to-contraception-in-the-philippines
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/2012/01/food-for-9-billion.html
http://pcij.org/stories/2005/pills.html
Instead of us Westerners striving to help the Philippines build infrastructure, we are trying to convince them that the path to prosperity is to throw out their religious values and start reducing their reproduction.
They can help themselves by having fewer of themselves.
My conclusion is we in the West do not want so many of these dark-skinned developing-nation peoples – because they will upset our world.
We need an acceptable front to hide our racist agenda. “Over-population,” especially due to those Catholics, works just great.
Many of us WUWT readers have internalized the disdain for religion, especially Catholicism, that the Marxists have been feeding us.
There is plenty of food.
There is plenty of wealth to develop infrastructure, and support local independence.
That would require us overlords to be promoting autonomy, rather than dependence.
Hi, Gee Jam (re: 4:48am today),
Thanks, so much, for responding. Your communication skills (and courtesy) are refreshing! Good for you to try as hard as you do to find and get the truth out about science (“stupid o’clock” — good one). Thanks for sharing your excellent list (link to post above). No, I had not seen it. Glad to know that I was RIGHT about you and your CO2 message (temporarily gone just a tiny bit awry). And, lol, I certainly did not need to tell you any of what I did above — you are VERY WELL INFORMED.
I hope A-th-y does post your list with your graphics (I’m sure they are well done). If you’d like someone to look over it for typos and clarity (since I am a non-scientist), just ask. I’d be happy to (fyi: “refrigeration” may need fixing, perhaps a Britishism?)
Riley (my German Shepherd) says, “Tell Will ‘Hello.’ And tell him to have a fun walk. And tell him to stop paying so much attention to birds and more to his owners,” — German Shepherds are quite verbose and take their work very seriously, but boy are they sweet.)
Yours,
Janice
Re: “refrigeration” — Yes, in America, we shorten “refrigerator” to “fridge.” I — do — not — know — why, except that it better makes it rhyme with “bridge” instead of “fig.”
When I was a little kid, we still alternated calling it a refrigerator and a frigidaire (sp?) (from the brand name… unlike Kleenex, it now largely resides in the quiet land of Archaism ….).
And, this one’s for you, Tom G. Ologist! frac’ing! Good luck with that.
#(:))
population growth has already outran the ability of oil based civilization to cope, at least by a factor of two, perhaps by a factor of three. US, with 5% of world population is using 25% of oil production. Do the math.
I do not know where the “ultimate” carrying capacity is. What I do know is that the population growth is a huge problem already, likely to lead to war and mayhem in a very near future. Having said this, population growth is a natural phenomenon of sorts, a collision of reduced mortality of the young with patriarchal cultures that enforce high fertility which was once necessary to maintain population levels at the time of very high mortality. The world has to cope, but coping will be neither easy nor pleasant and may still end in a nuclear blowout. Complete technological restructuring of western civilization is already necessary and baked into the cake. If it does not happen, the world will be an extremely unhappy place.
Calling those who point these rather obvious facts (grade school math) “Malthusians” is really a form of sticking your head into the sand and repeating “all will be ok, it always has been”, or “so far so good”.