Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch in effect until 4:00 PM CST this afternoon for portions of eastern Iowa, Illinois, northwest Indiana, northeast Missouri, southeast Wisconsin, and Lake Michigan. For additional details, please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0561.html.
NOAA National Weather Service experts to discuss severe weather today in Ohio Valley and Midwest
Nov. 17, 2013
WHAT: NOAA National Weather Service will hold a media call Sunday, November 17, at 12:00 noon ET to discuss the latest forecast from the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center for high winds and possible tornadoes affecting Illinois, Indiana, northern and western Kentucky, lower Michigan, Ohio and southeast Wisconsin.
Officials will discuss the forecast for development of a few strong, long-track tornadoes over parts of the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into Michigan today through early tonight.
WHEN: Sunday, November 17, 12:00 noon ET
WHO: Laura Furgione, deputy director, NOAA National Weather Service
Russell Schneider, director, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center
Bill Bunting, forecast branch chief, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center
ON THE WEB:
NOAA Storm Prediction Center: http://www.spc.noaa.gov
NOAA National Weather Service: http://www.weather.gov
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You can bet that if there are tornadoes produced from this we’ll see claims along the lines that “tornadoes in November are unusual” (They aren’t, see graph below) and that this is another “signature of global warming” (the science shows it isn’t, see IPCC SREX report).
Related articles
- US Tornado Count So Low That It’s Invaded The Legend… (wattsupwiththat.com)
UPDATE: Severe weather in progress. Image of Cental IL from http://stormpredator.com software:
These tornadoes are getting seriously out of hand.
The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald. By Canadian Gordon Lightfoot.
Oh, right, that was pre-1975. Not CO2 related. Irrelevant to today’s topic.
It’s 2:30 Central, things here in Kane county IL are now calm, at peak high winds, some BIG thunder followed by lots of thunder storms and rain, (moderate).
Some standing water in ditches.
-Jay
“The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald. By Canadian Gordon Lightfoot.
Oh, right, that was pre-1975. Not CO2 related. Irrelevant to today’s topic.”
Right Doug, the storms of yesteryear were different, more innocent, less dirty, less sponsored by big oil companies. They killed as many people, but God was to blame. Now it’s all our fault.
How I pine for the good old days.
Meanwhile the Philippines are demanding we reimburse them for causing the recent typhoon. Makes me want to take my recent donation back, to be honest.
Jay says:
November 17, 2013 at 12:31 pm
It’s 2:30 Central, things here in Kane county IL are now calm, at peak high winds, some BIG thunder followed by lots of thunder storms and rain, (moderate).
Some standing water in ditches.
-Jay
==============================================================
Power went out in Aurora for 90 minutes.
Big rain, little thunder/lightning.
cjames says:
November 17, 2013 at 8:48 am
“Tornado watch now issued for Michigan. SPC calls it a “particularly dangerous situation with several intense tornadoes LIKELY” I have been a meteorologist for 45 years and have never seen the threat this high this far north so late in the season.”
You describe yourself as what one would take to be an “old, cool” hand. Then you talk about threat. You do not talk about fact. The cognitive dissonance is huge.
jones said:
“These tornadoes are getting seriously out of hand.”
How pithy. So full of fact and analysis. Clearly you know the facts. I can see why your line of reasoning is so convincing.
But seriously, is this a direct quote from the NYT, the BBC, or did you cull this gem from that mushy clump of bong-resin between your ears, bro?
They’re not even trying anymore. How are they even in the game?!?!?
Alan Robertson says:
November 17, 2013 at 10:40 am
Ric Werme says:
November 17, 2013 at 10:00 am
Beyond the tornado risk, it seems to me this storm fits the description of the “Witch of November”.
++++++++++
Great post, as Gordon Lightfoot preserves our history in song so that many can remember that when the past (weather) repeats itself, it is normal. How soon we otherwise conveniently forget! Again – great post!
Heavy rains and hail here in Rockford. Lots of lightning action.
Power went out in Aurora for 90 minutes.
Well that explains why the light bulbs here in Rockford were getting bright and dim at various times.
http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/report_e.html?on22
More on The Witch…
http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/11/12/mark-bourrie-the-witch-of-november/
I have been searching for damage reports. Found one dead in Washington IL. Bears game had a storm break. Lots of tornadoes sighted. Maybe droves of tornadoes sighted. In sum, what is the point of checking in with the national media? All you get is hysteria and panic.
In my experience, nothing unusual for an Ontario November.
Theo Goodwin says:
“You describe yourself as what one would take to be an “old, cool” hand. Then you talk about threat. You do not talk about fact. The cognitive dissonance is huge”
Seems to me, and to any other forecaster I know, that SPC was forecasting “likely” intense tornadoes all the way up into Michigan. I have never seen that before in November. That my friend is a fact.
In addition, I’d say SPC over reacted. There were no confirmed touchdowns in Michigan, however we did have wind gusts to 78 mph with lots of tree damage.
Best place to keep count of the activity; http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/131117_rpts.html
Moon will be maximum North declination @ur momisugly culmination on the 19th, Tidal bulge production peaked when the solar and lunar declination was the same, now it is just sliding N East.
The Edmund Fitzgerald storm was a lunar tidal effect the same as this storm outbreak.
We are seeing more severe weather in the fall/winter this year because now the earth is passing most of the outer gas planets, as they have progressed from the clumping in the summer months from 1993 through 2005 when the severe weather was mostly tornadoes in the spring and lots of hurricanes in summer,(along with the extra solar wind strength ion scavenging the condensational nuclei for base global cloud forming creating the surge in “global warming”.)
Now that the earth is passing the outer gas planets, Neptune on August 27th, Uranus on October the 3rd, Mars and Uranus had a conjunction on November 10th, (remember the flare and CME?)
For the winter outlook there will be a Synod conjunction of Earth with Jupiter on December, 5th 2014, three days later Mars will be Synod with Jupiter on the 8th, then by the 11th Earth will line up with Mars. I would expect to see severe weather occurring starting from a week prior to the above listed activity, and last about a week past till the moon is max North on the 17th+ 3 days to the end. Last year much hay was made in Australia over the short heat wave that popped up as we had the solo Jupiter conjunction, this year with the additional interaction with Mars in the mix acting as a magnetic lens focusing the total magnetic flux to neck down through its small magnetosphere, short intense peaks on their long term heat wave, will be given front page headlines as if there was an CAGW effect to brag about, be ready for the lame PR.
I think I should just stay out [of] this, but what is the fun in that ?
I had my 2 different radars running, watching the storms come into my Chicago suburb.
It was getting kind of exciting there for awhile.
Tornado watches, radar indicated tornadoes, tornadoes reported on the ground.
It seemed weird, at the same time exciting for the middle of November.
I love weather 🙂
cjames says:
November 17, 2013 at 3:31 pm
It is a fact about a forecast. That does not count as a fact about the weather. I really wanted to discuss weather but I have no interest in the sociology of forecasters.
I am concerned about the problem of crying wolf. With the warnings that the national media put up today, one reasonably expected several small towns to be demolished with serious injuries in the hundreds. Given what actually happened, the MSM is once again training the public to ignore weather alarms. If weather forecasts are to be useful they absolutely must be reasonably accurate. This one was was not even in the ballpark. The weather forecasters in question should be very contrite at this time.
“12 December 1946, Exeter, Ontario: The lastest tornado ever experienced in Ontario touchs (sic) down in the southwestern communities of Exeter.”
http://www.islandnet.com/~see/weather/almanac/diarydec.htm
1. Strong/violent tornadoes are more frequent during global cooling, when the meridional temperature gradient is greater from the higher latitudes being colder. I know this graph has appeared here numerous times but here it is again.
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/images/tornado/clim/EF3-EF5.png
2. We were in a tornado “drought” in 2013. Even with this event, which could boost the total by close to 100, the number of tornadoes this year has been very low.
Linking these particular tornadoes on this one day to climate change in a year like this(extremely quiet) would be like a baseball player(MLB) batting .185 for the season in mid September, then getting going 12 for 16, with 4 home runs in 4 games and getting votes for Most Valuable Player of the year based on his hot streak.
The metric to measure and judge a baseball players performance over a season is 162 games.
2013’s tornado season should be judged in its entirety based on the entire year which is 365 days. Regardless of mother nature having a few tornado “hot streaks” this year(like every other year), unless we have numerous widespread outbreaks in the next 6 weeks(very unlikely), 2013 will end up with an unusually low tornado count.
Tornadoes in November are much less likely than tornadoes in April. So too, lousy MLB players batting .185 are much less likely to go 12 for 16 but it happens………….and they are still considered lousy after the hot streak ends and with a season ending average of .200.
To Theo Goodwin…. I have no idea what you mean by the “sociology of forecasters” My comment was that I had never seen the forecast issued by SPC for “likely intense tornadoes” issued so far north in November. That is a simple fact based upon my 45 years of forecasting Michigan weather. You seem to have a reading comprehension problem.
SPC did not verify their forecast for this area..there were no tornadoes in Michigan from this event, however I fully understand why they issued that forecast. All of the parameters we consider when forecasting tornadoes indicated there would be tornadoes this far north. And they were consistently saying this from three days out.
It turns out as of 7PM central time there were 77 tornadoes reported, all south of Michigan. Just goes to show we don’t know everything we need to know about tornado development, however given the situation, any forecaster not calling for tornadoes in Michigan would have, in my opinion, been negligent. This has nothing to do with sociology. You have obviously never had to decide whether to pull the trigger on a severe weather forecast or not. Until you have that experience, perhaps you should withhold judgement. 77 reported tornadoes in the moderate and high risk areas is certainly in the ballpark. If you had no severe weather at your house, consider yourself lucky. Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes NEVER affect everyone.
To Theo Goodwin: Perhaps you should read this article and then go tell these people the forecast wasn’t even in the ballpark: http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/chi-forecast-warm-windy-and-stormy-weekend-20131116,0,3131638.story
[It] ain’t everyday you get an [of] where it was really needed.
Power is flickering in Chicago, due to the winds.
cjames says:
November 17, 2013 at 5:16 pm
I read the report. Damage and injuries were nothing like the Oklahoma storms earlier this year. Yet the forecast indicated something like the Oklahoma situation. The forecast was not in the ballpark.