Bjørn Lomborg writes on his Facebook page
It is phenomenal. Climate campaigners like [John] Vidal in Guardian keeps arguing that the terrible typhoon Haiyan shows we need to do more about global warming.
Yet, even *after* Haiyan, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of all cyclones in the Western North Pacific is below normal (99%, http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php). The global ACE is at 74%.
As you can see in the graph below (updated Nov 10), both Northern Hemisphere ACE and global ACE are at the lowest since the 1970s.
Graph of ACE: http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php
Yes, there are ferocious cyclones in the world, as they always have been. But first, you can’t argue that global warming is making them worse, when the indicators are *lower*. Second, claiming that CO₂ cuts is the way to tackle cyclone damages is simply immoral. Even if we cut emissions dramatically, it will have only little impact in 50-100 years. If you want to help places like Tacloban and the Philippines, it is all about adaptation.
Again, it is likely that global warming will make cyclones somewhat stronger, though likely also somewhat fewer. In total, cyclones cost 0.04% of global GDP now. Since a richer world will also be a world with better protection (Florida is much less vulnerable to cyclones than Guatemala), by the end of the century, cyclones will cost 0.01% of global GDP. And because of increasing damages from global warming, the total cost will probably go to 0.02% of global GDP. http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n3/full/nclimate1357.html
But overall cyclones will destroy *less*. We will see a reduction from 0.04% to 0.02% of GDP.
And finally, remember, that we cannot see the global warming fingerprint in cyclones today or anytime soon. GFDL from NOAA estimate that an “increase may not be detectable until the latter half of the century” http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes)
Vidal in Guardian: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/nov/08/typhoon-haiyan-rich-ignore-climate-change
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
On this morning’s BBC Today program, the interviewer asked Justine Greening (UK minister for foreign aid) whether this had put climate change back on the agenda, a typically ignorant question that ignores the scientific data. Greening’s first comment was the expected politically correct response, that climate change had always been on the agenda, But, to her credit, she made no attempt to link the typhoon with climate change and quickly turned the conversation back to the real world.
Chris
Since it hasn’t warmed in well nigh two decades, how can any weather event be tied to global warming?
I would reckon that the extremely cold air mass as as result of the persistent trough over part of Asia must have played a role in this typhoon’s progression.
The thought experiment to ask anyone who tries to link any weather event to human activity is to ask them this simple thought experiment. If there were no humans on planet earth, what would be different about the storms tracking, power direction and wind speed and Why.
Same with any American hurricane / Tornado. If there were no humans in north america, what would change about this weather event.
Then watch some though processes going on……
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-11/philippines-plight-takes-center-stage-at-un-climate-talks.html
—————-
But being “made to walk” (or drive) is just a less euphemistic way of saying “residents were ordered to evacuate.” That goes on all the time–and should have been done in Tacloban. When residents aren’t “ordered,” the rate of non-compliance is higher.
Also, walking a couple of miles can’t be compared to a much longer death march. And even if it could be, “death march” is a misnomer–“life march” is the appropriate term.