NOTE: readers of this thread may be interested in this:
An ethical challenge for Greg Laden – put your money where your mouth is
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Here is the sort of headlines we had Friday, for example this one from Huffington Post where they got all excited about some early reports from Andrew Freedman:
Super Typhoon Haiyan — which is one of the strongest storms in world history based on maximum windspeed — is about to plow through the Central Philippines, producing a potentially deadly storm surge and dumping heavy rainfall that could cause widespread flooding. As of Thursday afternoon Eastern time, Haiyan, known in the Philippines as Super Typhoon Yolanda, had estimated maximum sustained winds of 195 mph with gusts above 220 mph, which puts the storm in extraordinarily rare territory.
UPDATE 5: from this NYT article:
Before the typhoon made landfall, some international forecasters were estimating wind speeds at 195 m.p.h., which would have meant the storm would hit with winds among the strongest recorded. But local forecasters later disputed those estimates. “Some of the reports of wind speeds were exaggerated,” Mr. Paciente said.
The Philippine weather agency measured winds on the eastern edge of the country at about 150 m.p.h., he said, with some tracking stations recording speeds as low as 100 m.p.h.
Ah those wind speed estimates, they don’t always meet up with reality later – Anthony
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By Paul Homewood
Sadly it appears that at least 1000 1200 1774* lives have been lost in Typhoon Yolanda (or Haiyan), that has just hit the Philippines. There appear to have been many unsubstantiated claims about its size, though these now appear to start being replaced by accurate information.
Nevertheless the BBC are still reporting today
Typhoon Haiyan – one of the most powerful storms on record to make landfall …….The storm made landfall shortly before dawn on Friday, bringing gusts that reached 379km/h (235 mph).
Unfortunately we cannot always trust the BBC to give the facts these days, so let’s see what the Philippine Met Agency, PAGASA, have to say. Here are the surface wind reports:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcarchive_files.html
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/wbfcst.html
So at landfall the sustained wind was 235 kmh or 147 mph, with gusts upto 275 kmh or 171 mph. This is 60 mph less than the BBC have quoted.
The maximum strength reached by the typhoon appears to have been around landfall, as the reported windspeeds three hours earlier were 225 kmh (140mph).
Terrible though this storm was, it only ranks as a Category 4 storm, and it is clear nonsense to suggest that it is “one of the most powerful storms on record to make landfall “
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_Hurricane_Scale
Given the geography of the Pacific, most typhoons stay out at sea, or only hit land once they have weakened. But in total terms, the busiest typhoon season in recent decades was 1964, whilst the following year logged the highest number of super typhoons (which equate to Cat 3 +). Of the eleven super typhoons that year, eight were Category 5’s.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon
So far this year, before Yolanda there have been just three Category 5’s, none of which hit land at that strength.
Personally I don’t like to comment on events such as these until long after the dust has settled. Unfortunately though, somebody has to set the record if we cannot rely on the BBC and others to get the basic facts right.
UPDATE
In case anyone thinks I am overreacting, take a look at the Daily Mail headlines.
Just looking at it again, is it possible the MSM are confusing mph with kmh? It seems a coincidence that PAGASA report 235 kmh.
UPDATE 2
I have just registered a complaint at the Press Complaints Commission against the Mail article. If anyone spots similar articles elsewhere, and I will add them to my complaint.
UPDATE 3
I seem to have been right about the kmh/mph confusion!
I’ve just scanned down the Mail article and seen this:
Unless they think “gusts” are less than “winds”, it looks like someone has boobed.
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UPDATE4: Kent Noonan writes in with this addition –
CNN has had several articles stating the same numbers for wind speed as BBC and Mail. I saw these numbers first last night at 10PM Pacific time.
Today’s story: “Powered by 195-mph winds and gusts up to 235 mph, it then struck near Tacloban and Dulag on the island of Leyte, flooding the coastal communities.”
http://www.cnn.com/2013/11/09/world/asia/philippines-typhoon-haiyan/index.html?hpt=hp_inthenews
If these “news” agencies don’t issue a correction, we will be forever battling the new meme of “most powerful storm in world history”.
Look at today’s google search for “most powerful storm”
stories run by Independent, NBC, dailymail, NPR, Foxnews, CNBC, WND, Business Insider, PBS, BBC, CNN, FirstPost, Bloomberg
“All you need to know Typhoon Haiyan, world’s most powerful storm” by FP Staff Nov 8, 2013
Then they go on to correctly state gusts to 170mph !!
UPDATE 6: (update 5 is at the head of the post)
BBC now reporting reduced wind speeds that would make it a Cat4 storm:
Typhoon Haiyan – one of the most powerful storms on record to make landfall – swept through six central Philippine islands on Friday.
It brought sustained winds of 235km/h (147mph), with gusts of 275 km/h (170 mph), with waves as high as 15m (45ft), bringing up to 400mm (15.75 inches) of rain in places.
Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-24887337 (h/t David S)
UPDATE7: While hit and run haters like Greg laden deplore us pointing out the measurements of wind speeds, labeling us with all sorts of derogatory names, they conveniently ignore purposely created propaganda like this:
The juxtaposition in Tenney Naumer’s Twitter Feed says it all:
Rules for Radicals: “We are always moral and our enemies always immoral.” The issue is never the issue. The issue is always the immorality of the opposition,”
UPDATE 8: here is another number you are likely to see bandied about as supposed proof of this storm being historically unprecedented, courtesy Tenney Naumer who pointed it out in comments:
NOAA recorded Haiyan’s lowest central pressure at 858, quite possibly a record in the instrumental era:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2013/tdata/wpac/31W.html
Those aren’t measurements Tenney, they are ESTIMATES. Done from satellite. They are called DVORAK fixes.
And note, the estimates stay the same for several hours without any fluctuation, then repeat values in bracketing outside that period, a sure sign of a model doing rounding.
Here is the source page: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/storms/HAIYAN.html
The technique is new, and has issues and acknowledged biases, it is a work in progress. One of the issues is that verification has only been done for near US Atlantic Basin storms within the range of hurricane hunter aircraft.
Paper on the technique is here: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2010WAF2222375.1 ]
UPDATE9: (h/t to WUWT reader StewGreen)
From the Government of the Philippines sitrep report, a screencap:
Click to access NDRRMC%20UP%20Sitrep%20No12%20re%20Effects%20of%20TY%20YOLANDA%20111113.pdf
UPDATE 10: Laden’s claims in his tirade aren’t supported by actual science and data, he writes:
But Watts and Homewood don’t want storms to be important for the simple reason that the best models strongly suggest that there will be more storms … especially in the Pacific, where Haiyan struck, over coming decades because of the changes to climate that humans are carrying out and that Anthony Watts and Paul Homewood deny to be real.
This paper shows the reality:
Kubota, H. and Chan, J.C.L. 2009. Interdecadal variability of tropical cyclone landfall in the Philippines from 1902 to 2005. Geophysical Research Letters 36: 10.1029/2009GL038108.
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* Reports are varying wildly
The Red Cross in the Philipines says 1200 in this report: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/09/us-philippines-typhoon-idUSBRE9A603Q20131109
But now Reuters is claiming and estimate of 10,000 based on a late night meeting of officials at the Governors Office. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/10/philippines-typhoon-casualty-idUSL4N0IV00F20131110
About the same time as the Reuters 10K report, television News in the Philipines says the death toll is 151. http://anc.yahoo.com/video/ndrrmc-151-dead-due-yolanda-011610793.html
Early reports often vary widely, and it will be some time before accurate numbers are produced.
Our hearts and prayers go to the Philippine people. For those that wish to help, here is the website of the Philippine Red Cross: http://ushare.redcross.org.ph/
Monday in the WSJ:
Philippines Typhoon Death Count Rises to 1,774
Toll Exceeds Red Cross Estimates of 1,200; Likely to Rise Much Higher
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303914304579191821439194290?tesla=y
Source of the number: http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/334950/news/nation/ndrrmc-confirms-1-774-fatalities-most-are-from-eastern-visayas
UPDATE: 11/12 7AM Philippine president Aquino says to CNN: Typhoon Haiyan deaths likely 2,000 to 2,500 — not 10,000
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Regarding Update 9, everybody and their brother must be trying to look at that, because dl is extremely slow.
It may have been over hyped and erroneously reported, but at this point, i think it doesn’t make sense to spend our time pondering over this topic whether this is a super typhoon or not. Like any other calamities, this Yolanda has claimed lives and destroyed dreams. I saw the photos of dead people for the past two days, and I think this isn’t the right topic to discuss — timing is off. I think what is relevant at this point is how we could help.
[snip – fake email, fake name, derogatory comment -mod]
Finally, a source where I can get some accurate (?) data and facts. I know, one way or another, that the mainstream and our local media would definitely exaggerate some facts. I’m tired of reading conspiracies and dogmatic BS on my FB news feed.
I’ve been closely, well not that much, monitoring the news and reading articles (data & facts) regarding T. Haiyan and some of the facts (?) I’ve heard/read so far:
— the 10,000 body count was just an estimate from the local military (?) who did a ground investigation. I guess they arrived to that estimate because you can literally see corpses piled up and lying on the ground ANYWHERE you look. And it was just in a single city. But the total recorded number so far ATM was less than 2000.
— I’ve heard on the news that the Mayor of Tacloban wasn’t really sure what a storm surge was so there could have been a lapse in judgment. Forced evacuations were made, but even some of the evacuation centers were flooded. I could bet some of the people here were reluctant to leave their houses and would rather take the risk than lose their belongings.
Although, let’s face it.. even the meteorologists themselves wasn’t really sure about the strength of T. Haiyan. So who could’ve really prepared for it? Dead bodies are dead bodies. T. Haiyan is the strongest storm of 2013, so far. And these media personnel gotta make a news for a living.
Sorry I’m not really adding up a solid figures here. I’m also just basing my post from the stuff I’ve heard in our local news. So here’s an interesting clip instead:
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=10201720156158196
PS: I hope you could add a summary about T. Haiyan’s (speed/gust onshore/offshore, etc) and a comparison with the other strongest storms (Katrina, Tip, etc.) in your post. Thank you.
Bill Taylor says:
November 11, 2013 at 9:12 am
strange times we live in, when folks seeking TRUTH and ACCURATE information are attacked!
and the attacks are coming from those seeking to LIE to the public.
At second though you will see that unfortunately this is not so strange time Bill. It is the way how things with rare exceptions went in history in most places.
UPDATE: 11/12 7AM Philippine president Aquino says to CNN: Typhoon Haiyan deaths likely 2,000 to 2,500 — not 10,000
I really don’t think you care at all … for you it’s all about being right! You can use the donation cover all you want but deep down inside you know what you are up to!
Caleb says:
November 10, 2013 at 5:19 pm
Caleb, I’m late getting back round these parts but thank you for the kind words and sage advice. Much appreciated. I can’t help but go with the slow burn. I start off trying to stay calm about these matters but before long the emotions get a hold of me and I find it difficult to hold it back. These things don’t spoil my day, but they do certainly raise my hackles. As a father of two, I have no plan to yield to this grotesque behemoth being foisted upon us. It must be fought every step of the way. Thanks again and keep up the good fight.
That is exactly what I would expect a person who hates the truth to say.
Right now, and during this entire episode the global warmist lunatics have been using this event and those deaths you argue should make this topic verboten. They are building a meme that will last forever in the minds of hundreds of millions, and yes, RIGHT NOW, this moment and every moment is the right time to discuss the truth.
By the way, I lost family near Tacloban City and am currently working on getting the rest of my family moved from Tacloban City to Manila. My wife was severely harmed by all the lies and propaganda you wish to allow to remain the meme. Because of all the exaggerations she was certain they were all dead. She had to wait 5 days to hear from them to finally have any peace. The people who perpetrated the lies, propaganda and fraud should quickly and summarily punished to the full extent that our society can do so, thus hopefully preventing the same thing happening to other people.
Lyn Cacha says:
November 11, 2013 at 7:13 pm
It may have been over hyped and erroneously reported, but at this point, i think it doesn’t make sense to spend our time pondering over this topic whether this is a super typhoon or not. Like any other calamities, this Yolanda has claimed lives and destroyed dreams. I saw the photos of dead people for the past two days, and I think this isn’t the right topic to discuss — timing is off. I think what is relevant at this point is how we could help.
Chuck Wiese: “The earth is millions of years old!” Now talk about flapping your gums. If you did Geology 101 you’d know that the earth is a little over 4.5 billion years of age, but I digress. It is interesting that rather than refuting my claims through the use of facts, you waste your time with ad hominem attacks on myself. If you had read the post properly you would have noted that I was not referring to the size of the eyewall, but rather its presentation. As Sitkowski, Matthew, James P. Kossin, Christopher M. Rozoff, 2011: Intensity and Structure Changes during Hurricane Eyewall Replacement Cycles. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 3829–3847 note, the presentation of an eyewall is highly important in the intensity and development of a tropical storm. If you had further read Pun et al. (2013), “Recent increase in high tropical cyclone heat potential area in the Western North Pacific Ocean” you would have noted that the depth of ocean temperatures to sustain a tropical system (26 degrees) has increased by 17% in the area, which is a large increase. It is also worth noting that Cowton and Way (2013) also note the following: “The reason is the data gaps in the weather station network, especially in the Arctic. If you fill these data gaps using satellite measurements, the warming trend is more than doubled in the widely-used HadCRUT4 data, and the much-discussed “warming pause” has virtually disappeared.” It is quite apparent that you are the one misleading readers by “flapping” your gums.
It might have been the cause of Global Warming , it might not have been the cause of Global Warming. The wind speed might have been massive, the wind speed might have been lower, The body count might be high, the body count might be low .
One thing that nobody can deny it has caused a lot of devastation that is leading to a lot of suffering 6 days on and still people are out of reach and alone. It won’t be long before disease sets in . Another possible big problem will be an increase in mosquitoes that could bring a increase in dengue etc . So lets concentrate on the needs not the figures.
I’ve read alot on this page. This fairly arrogant expression is what made me to write this comment:
“Personally I don’t like to comment on events such as these until long after the dust has settled. Unfortunately though, somebody has to set the record if we cannot rely on the BBC and others to get the basic facts right.” (Anthony)
1) So why do you comment than right now? I know… hot topic… forge the iron when it’s hot but considering initial reports over the human aspect… what do wind speeds change about that?
2) I’m from continental Europe (Belgium), am engineer by trade (so have an idea about models, numbers, error margins, deviations etc.) and am currently in the Philippines. I’ve experienced Yolanda / Haiden on Mindoro. While you here are dickfighting over whether or not the initial reports, bases on measurements and models are correct (seems like a very British passing of time…(sorry, could not help myself here)), it is actually of non human importance. People are in serious trouble here.
3) A couple of times a reference is made to the poverty of the country and thereto the related death toll. A more than substatial part of the victims concerned are the wealthier people here, as they thought there house would be able to sustain the typhoons force and they had no idea of the intensity of the storm surge.
4) In relation to the estimates and measured wind speeds. There is a substantial difference between a 1-minute average (JTWC) and a 10-minute average (PASAGA). The same goes for measurement and model… Anyhow, if you are of opinion that 270kph or 345kph would make that much difference for your house, please let me know. As I don’t really see the point… Even related to engineering, a lot of what we do is based on estimates, assumptions and models that are only partly correct. That is why safety factors are so high and redundancy is a must in many systems…
5) Press and media have an obligation to report. They still are not weather experts, just as about everybody commenting here, me included are not weather experts. The end of the day, every media-organisation wants to sell their story. We should not be naive.
Media need to get their data somewhere. Initial reports (JTWC) indicated windspeeds BEFORE landfall at 195 mph. (This does not mean a) that at landfall the same speeds will still be there; b) that they occur in the place where the measurement is being taken; c) that the estimate is fact, it is still estimate). The media reports of 195mph (~315kph) are accurate. They are not based on some crazy guys webblog or whatever…
6) Anyhow, in recent history I would have loved this page. Now being here and witnessing myself some of the real-live effects I’ve become more humble. It’s easy from our European house, in front of our PC to make some webpage and write soms criticisms. This purely academic exercise is utterly pointless and insulting to those involved.
7) The combined intellectual capacities of the people commenting here (including me …) could be used more useful by trying to address the current problems such as how to get adequate help to the affected regions. We should know better…
My thoughts are with those who suffered the tragedy of this storm, their relatives and everybody else affected by it.
Sam @ur momisugly city of Calapan, Mindoro, Philippines
What a confusing situation. Just to put the record straight on wind speeds: The Joint Typhoon Warning centre and National Hurricane Centre quote 1 minute sustained winds as does the Tropical Cyclone research community. The Japanese meteorological agency or JMA and the Philippines met agency quote 10 minute sustained winds. In Haiyan 190-195 mph (I mins sustained) was the quoted speed over water, on land that would be 15-20% lower due to frictional effects so 155 -165mph over land. The JMA and Philippines met agency quoted 145mph (10 mins sustained) for Haiyan over water so after the frictional effects of land at landfall more likely 130mph. I wish the press and various commentators would stop spouting and just get their facts straight before going to press.
The bottom line is that Haiyan was a prodigiously powerful Cyclone that tapped into near record levels of deep warm water to reach its maximum potential intensity.
I remember reading the data from the JMA which correlates with the Philipino met agency, but am buggered if I can find the ‘report’ again. My google-fu is clearly on the blink. Does anyone have a link to their readings?
I live in the Philippines. I have studied typhoons for 32 years. I can vouch for the fact the PAGASA is renowned for ALWAYS under-reporting wind speeds for typhoons. If you base your hypothesis for denigration of this typhoon’s status on PAGASA data then you are the fool. Six years ago in Puerto Galera (Mindoro, Philippines) when the typhoon passed within five miles of our location we saw winds speeds in excess of 100 knots recorded on our masthead anemometer when PAGASA said winds were only gusting to 70 knots. I share your lack of faith in BBC, CNN et al, but JTWC and FNMOC have a pretty good handle on things, and first-hand reports from Guiuan suggest that 200mph maybe understated. ST Haiyan was the worst typhoon I have ever witnessed at landfall in the Philippines.
Stackhouse: Your response is another gum flap that says a lot of nothing. Anyone who understands tropical systems knows well that eye wall size matters a whole lot. If you don’t think so, then somebody should explain the cyclostrophic balance to you where the centrifugal forces of wind become the primary balance to pressure gradient. So all you’re saying is the obvious and chasing your tail. “Presentation” IS about symmetry and symmetry is important to the cyclostrophic balance just like size. So what? That’s been known for a long time. And your point is?
Next, you bring up the paper by Pun, et. al about there being a 17% increase in depth of the 26 degC isotherm in the western north Pacific and infer from that as does the authors, that somehow we think that might be traceable to AGW and CO2 radiation. What a farse of an assumption! I note that they cut off their research after 1992, which was half way through the last warm phase PDO where the ENSO signal is pronounced with frequent Kelvin waves transgressing the ocean FROM that part of the world. We reversed to cold phase in 2007, which increases trade winds, weakens ENSO and essentially bottles up warm water in that part of the world. So it would seem plausible that what the authors are really observing is just that. And during cold phase, I would venture typhoons strengthen in intensity and frequency in that part of the world, just like Joe Bastardi warned us that the warmer Atlantic will also bring more frequent Atlantic storms for the next 30 years. The behavior of warmer loons like you was very predictable in regards to this. I’ve been talking about how you guys switched gears from “warming” to “climate change” where you create a boogeyman with every single severe weather event and claim its because of CO2 emissions. This storm is no different.
Then you trot out Cowtan and Way in their attempts to fill in climate data to the HadCRUT4 series to attempt to create another statistical illusion that the global temperature pause is really not a pause if you mix in the UAH satellite data with the HadCRUT 4 series. That is similar to the nonsense we got for a long while when Hansen was at GISS and not busy getting himself arrested making the fool out of himself that he continues to do. I won’t show where this is BS other than to refer you to the front of Anthony’s blog here and read the dissection of this nonsense written by Werner Brozeck, more on this down thread from David Whitehouse and more further down thread from Bob Tisdale. In reality, the UAH satellite data set and RSS satellite data already do what Cowtan claims is necessary and both those sets show the global warming has stopped since 1998 scanning both the Arctic and Antarctic. The lengths warmers will go to continue to perpetuate their nonsense and provenly wrong modeling are astonishing.
Finally, as warmers do when they run out of an argument to present is to nit pick some sort of comment someone else made about something that is not even relevant, such as the age of the earth. No, Stackhouse, you’re right. I never took Geo 101. I never had to as an atmospheric science major. It was never my cup of tea. I know the earth is old. At least millions of years old. That was my point to Bil G. concerning typhoon history. Even a century does not give you enough information to see a true climatological pattern emerge from these storms. You say the earth is 4.5 billion years old. Since that assumption is made from the U238 half life, it is likely not too far off the mark. But what is the significance of pointing it out? It’s obvious that it is to discredit but it has no relevance to my point. So I’ll correct my statement to Bill G : Bill, if you’re reading I was wrong when I told you the earth is millions of years old. It is actually 4,500 million years old.
Like Greg Laden, you’re quite a piece of work, Stackhouse.
How do you explain the JTWC’s figures? 315 kph gusting 378? An estimate is an estimate, but 100 kph error is a bit too big to dismiss. I think you can be selective with facts too… http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Haiyan#Meteorological_history
Time for another update. Death toll now officially at 5,209, with 23,404 injured and 1,582 still missing. Do you still consider it overhyped, you arrogant dicks?
http://www.ndrrmc.gov.ph/attachments/article/1125/NDRRMC%20UP%20SitRep%20No35%20Effects%20of%20TY%20Yolanda.pdf
Please go donate.
Emily,
This arrogant dick donated more than $300 USD. How much did you donate?