Story submitted by Cornelis de Jager
(past president ICSU;past pres. COSPAR)
In a recent publication entitled Terrestrial ground temperature variation in relation to solar magnetic variability, including the present Schwabe cycle, Cornelis (Kees) de Jager and Hans Nieuwenhuijzen, from the Space Research Organisation of the Netherlands have analysed the dependence of the global earth temperature on the polar as well as the equatorial magnetic fields. The new aspect in this research is that all earlier investigations in this field only sought for the dependence of the terrestrial ground temperature on the number of sunspots, which is a “proxy” for the equatorial magnetic fields of the sun. But the sun has two big magnetic areas, the equatorial and the polar one. In this research both are included.
In their analysis the Utrecht scientists restricted to the relatively long-term variation of both fields as well as the temperature, such in order to exclude short-term phenomena such as temperature variations due to volcanoes or processes like El-Nino.
By including the two magnetic field areas in their analysis it could be shown that during the major part of the four centuries investigated, i.e. the period 1610 till around 1900 – 1950 , the average terrestrial ground temperatures depend solely on solar magnetic field variations. After 1900 there is an increasing excess in the temperature which is ascribed to anthropogenic activity. After the impressive Grand Maximum of the 20thb century the sun went through an exceptional, not before observed phase transition that lasted relatively long, i.e. from about 2005 till 2010.
Usually, the transitions between solar variability phases takes no more than one to two years. During that transition period and after that, solar activity was exceptionally low. The consequent small contribution to the terrestrial temperatures is the cause for the standstill in the rise of temperature observed since the middle of the 20th century.
The above can be illustrated in figure 1, the diagram shows three curves. The middle one is the average terrestrial ground temperature (dots) through which a smoothed average curve is drawn .(The LOWESS technique is used for smoothing). The upper line shows the solar contribution and the bottom curve is the difference between the two. It shows a nearly flat variation which demonstrates that the long-term component of terrestrial temperatures is solely due to the variation of the sun’s magnetic fields. The average “zero-line” show a very slow , yet unexplained, increase over the centuries.
The paper is published in Natural Science vol. 5, pp. 1112- 1120, 2013 (open access). It can also be consulted at http://www.cdejager.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/2013-CdeJ-HN-Sun-climate-NS-5-1112.pdf
Related articles
- A link between the solar magnetic field and weather patterns on Earth may explain our lower than normal severe weather in 2013 (wattsupwiththat.com)
- Commentary on the Article about the Interplanetary Magnetic Field influences (wattsupwiththat.com)
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New paper suggests the sun’s magnetic fields defines climate over the long term
What is defining the sun’s magnetic fields?
The sun’s magnetic fields have a dipolar and quadrapolar features.
The earth’s magnetic fields have a dipolar and quadrapole features.
The earth’s magnetic field, in particular the South Atlantic Magnetic Anomaly (SAMA or SAA) increases in size, as the overall dipole strength decreases. This occurs when the solar dipolar field decreases over a solar cycle.
But at the same time both sun and earth’s quadrapole increases?
Too many open windows on my laptop. Need to find the article which refers to the increase in earth’s quadrapole components. Something about a slow drizzle of electrons over the Antarctic peninsula in close proximity to the SAMA/radiation belt anomaly.
And they call it a hotspot..go figure.
J Martin says
At the end of the day, the sun is the only significant source of warmth on this planet
henry says
true
without the sun there is nothing, really
it is the sun’s output, & distribution of radiation that causes cooling and warming periods,
and it is part of creation.
Otherwise there could be runaway warming or runaway cooling…
When to drizzle and when not to drizzle..
but there is a “steady drizzle” of electrons that is varying with the solar magnetic cycle.
“Longitudinal hot-spots in the mesospheric OH variations due to
energetic electron precipitation”
http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/13/19895/2013/acpd-13-19895-2013.pdf
M. E. Andersson 1, P. T. Verronen 1, C. J. Rodger 2, M. A. Clilverd 3, and S. Wang 4
© Author(s) 2013.
Abstract
..Analysis of selected OH data sets
for periods of different geomagnetic activity levels shows that the longitudinal OH hotspot
south of the SAMA (the Antarctic Peninsula region) is partly caused by strong,
regional electron forcing, although atmospheric conditions also seem to play a role.
This OH hot-spot is even seen weakly during periods of lower geomagnetic activity,
which suggest that there is a steady drizzle of electrons affecting the atmosphere, due
to the Earth’s magnetic field being weaker in this region.
1 Introduction
An important source of variability of mesospheric OH comes from energetic particle
precipitation events that originate from explosions on the surface of the Sun (Thorne,
1977; Heaps, 1978; Verronen et al., 2006, 2007, 2011; Damiani et al., 2008, 2010b;
Jackman et al., 2011). In contrast to solar protons, which propagate directly from the
Sun into Earth’s atmosphere, energetic electrons are first stored and energized in the
radiation belts. During geomagnetic storms, strong acceleration and loss process occur
( Reeves et al., 2003), which can both boost the trapped population and lead to significant
loss of electrons into the atmosphere. Energetic electron precipitation (EEP) from
the radiation belts affects the neutral atmosphere at magnetic latitudes of about 55–
72deg. and results in the enhancement of HOx through water cluster ion chemistry. This
process is only effective below about 80 km, where enough water vapor is available
(Solomon et al., 1981; Verronen and Lehmann, 2013). The atmospheric penetration
depth depends on the energy of the particle, e.g. electrons with 100 keV and 3 MeV
energy can reach 80 km and 50 km, respectively (see e.g. Turunen et al., 2009, Fig. 3).
now where’s that quadrapolar thingy?
Carla says:
November 2, 2013 at 9:26 am
When to drizzle and when not to drizzle..
but there is a “steady drizzle” of electrons that is varying with the solar magnetic cycle.
They call it a ‘drizzle’ because the effect is minute and tiny.
The Earth and the Sun’s magnetic field change is synchrony ?
That’s interesting. Maybe Leif has a graph and an explanation for that ?
J Martin says:
November 2, 2013 at 9:55 am
The Earth and the Sun’s magnetic fields change in synchrony ?
No, the short answer is that they don’t.
Now, there are small transient variations [up to a day] in the solar wind magnetic field coming from the Sun that have a small effect on the field we measure on the Earth [superposed on the main field of the Earth].
lsvalgaard:
thanks for posting…there is much to learn in your missives. thanks for being so generous with your knowledge.
david eisenstadt says:
November 2, 2013 at 10:12 am
lsvalgaard: thanks for posting…
You are most welcome.
J Martin says:
November 2, 2013 at 9:55 am
__The Earth and the Sun’s magnetic field change is synchrony ?_
That’s kinda what I’m looking for..but their scales are different..sun changes and everything follows..in a similar way..all planetary bodies having dipole and quadrapolar magnetic fields..and also similarily “hot-spots.”
“Time evolution of the South Atlantic Magnetic Anomaly”
Gelvam A. Hartmann; Igor G. Pacca
http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?pid=S0001-37652009000200010&script=sci_arttext
June 2009
..The analysis of non-dipole fields in historical period suggests that SAMA is governed by (i) quadrupolar field for drift, and (ii) quadrupolar and octupolar fields for intensity and area of influence. Furthermore, our study reinforces the possibility that SAMA may be related to reverse fluxes in the outer core under the South Atlantic region. ..
..The analysis of the non-dipole geomagnetic field for the historical period shows that SAMA is an anomaly that is governed by quadrupolar and octupolar terms The SAMA center drift (westward and southward) seems to be characterized by quadrupolar field. Intensity variation and area of influence is governed by quadrupolar and octupolar terms..
Which region (SAMA) we know couples with the radiation belts, which we know are highly sensitive to solar wind pressures and parameters. Wonder how the new Van Allen Belt Radiation Probes are doing..
Might there also be some gravitational focusing of some of these fluxes..here on Earth?
Hmmm… like all orbiting bodies have their primodial “belly buttons,” (hot spots) still receiving, neutralents ha ha
Carla says:
November 2, 2013 at 10:43 am
all planetary bodies having dipole and quadrupolar magnetic fields..and also similarily “hot-spots.”
You are making too much of this. The quadrupoles, octupoles, etc are mathematical things, not physics: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multipole_expansion The expression of a field as a combination of multipoles is a way of describing an irregular, ‘noisy’ quantity varying over the surface of a sphere. As all fields are irregular there will be such multipoles everywhere. An important property of the multipolar expansion is that the higher orders [quadrupoles and up] diminish in strength with distance, such that from far only the dipole effectively remains and all these higher orders are gone. Conversely, as we go deep into the Earth to where the field is generated we find a very irregular field e.g. http://www.leif.org/research/Magn-Field-Core-Boundary.png
All this simply expresses the fact that the fields are ‘messy’.
tumetu etc says
because it is arbitrary period trend-line from high amplitude, asymmetric (in both dimensions – if it tells you something) quasi-periodic signal on arbitrary scale, with population of only ~5 cycles. If you want to get something meaningful from quasiperiodic signals as SSN for shorter periods you must pretty well know what you are actually doing.
henry says
the graph on the drop of maximum temperatures (which nobody but me is looking at)
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2012/10/02/best-sine-wave-fit-for-the-drop-in-global-maximum-temperatures/
predicts that over the period 1927-2016 the SSN line must be straight
here is the latest on that:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/sidc-ssn/from:1927/to:2014/plot/sidc-ssn/from:1927/to:2014/trend
it seems to me the line is pretty straight. Perhaps by 2016 it will be straight.
Do you see that my theory (i.e. my results) works?
And what about the “electron halo,” in the outer solar corona. Which in my mind (outer corona) looks like the biggest baddest radiation belt in the solar system.
What changes are created in the outer corona when the electron density is increased that might affect the amount heat produced in the corona?
Carla says:
November 2, 2013 at 11:36 am
What changes are created in the outer corona when the electron density is increased that might affect the amount heat produced in the corona?
The corona is electrically neutral. For every electron there is a proton [ignoring the tiny amounts of other elements]. Causality flows the other way: it is the heating of the corona that determines the overall density [of both electrons and protons]. The heating is mostly accomplished by very hot electrons [‘halo’ electrons], where ‘halo’ does not refer to something surrounding the sun, but to electrons at the outer limits of the distribution of electron velocities, e.g. http://solarphysics.livingreviews.org/Articles/lrsp-2006-1/fig_23.html
lsvalgaard says:
November 2, 2013 at 11:01 am
—
… An important property of the multipolar expansion is that the higher orders [quadrupoles and up] diminish in strength with distance, such that from far only the dipole effectively remains and all these higher orders are gone. ..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multipole_expansion
The quadrupoles need not propagate far out, as the Earth’s radiation belt or Sun’s corona (haloes) are in close proximity to the rotating sphere. In the case of the Van Allen radiation belts as low as 100km above the “hot spot.” (SAMA) And we know the radiation belts fluctuate with solar cycle.
Hot spots where more radiation belt precipitation occurs are also found in higher latitudes in both N. and S. hemispheres. other anomalies etc. not so messy as Earth’s field is being defined and changes incurred seem to be related to rotational (dipolar) and solar influences affecting quadrupoles and higher.
So..how does changes in the sun’s dipolar field and quadrupole field affect Earth’s rotational differential? Could it be through the coupling of the radiation belts with the quadrupole (higher), via solar activity?
Carla says:
November 2, 2013 at 12:40 pm
The quadrupoles need not propagate far out, as the Earth’s radiation belt or Sun’s corona (haloes) are in close proximity to the rotating sphere.
Only the dipoles are important here.
In the case of the Van Allen radiation belts as low as 100km above the “hot spot.”
Not due to the solar wind but the solar UV radiation heating the thermosphere.
So..how does changes in the sun’s dipolar field and quadrupole field affect Earth’s rotational differential? Could it be through the coupling of the radiation belts with the quadrupole (higher), via solar activity?
They don’t. You seem to fixated on the idea that the extremely flimsy things in the corona, heliosphere, and interstellar space even something influence stuff. They don’t. The Sun is the big Kahuna and runs the show.
lsvalgaard says:
November 2, 2013 at 11:58 am
…The heating is mostly accomplished by very hot electrons [‘halo’ electrons], where ‘halo’ does not refer to something surrounding the sun, but to electrons at the outer limits of the distribution of electron velocities, e.g. …
___
ee Yes, Dr. S., sometimes it does mean a Halo surrounding the sun. Having an eerily similarity to Earth’s radiation belt.
On the existence of a cosmic ray electron halo
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1978MitAG..43..285S
Schlickeiser, R.; Thielheim, K. O.
Astronomische Gesellschaft, Wissenschaftliche Tagung, Basel, Switzerland, Sept. 19-23, 1977. Astronomische Gesellschaft, Mitteilungen, no. 43, 1978, p. 285-288.
It is shown that a one-dimensional stationary diffusion-energy loss propagation model can provide a reasonable explanation for the existence of a cosmic ray electron halo, that is, a rather broad disk-shaped confinement region of cosmic ray electron. A defined injection term, a power-law energy dependence of the diffusion coefficient, and an E-squared energy loss term are used in the calculation. With a proper choice of parameter values the model provides a good fit to the observed electron energy spectrum in the vicinity of the sun.
ELECTRON HALO AND STRAHL FORMATION IN THE SOLAR WIND BY RESONANT
INTERACTION WITH WHISTLER WAVES
http://sprg.ssl.berkeley.edu/adminstuff/webpubs/2005_aj_540.pdf
C. Vocks,1 C. Salem, and R. P. Lin
Space Sciences Laboratory, 7 Gauss Way, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720
and
G. Mann
Astrophysikalisches Institut Potsdam, An der Sternwarte 16, 14482 Potsdam, Germany; cvocks@aip.de
Received 2004 October 11; accepted 2005 March 3
ABSTRACT
Observations of solar wind electron distribution functions (VDFs) reveal considerable deviations from a simple
Maxwellian VDF. A thermal core and a suprathermal halo and antisunward, magnetic field–aligned beam, or ‘‘strahl,’’
can be distinguished. At higher energies above 2 keV, a superhalo can even be observed.Akinetic description of electrons
in the solar corona and wind, including resonant interaction between electrons and whistler waves, can reproduce
an enhancement of suprathermal electron fluxes compared to the core flux. The whistler waves are assumed to
be generated below the solar coronal base and propagate through the corona into interplanetary space. However, the
resonance condition with these whistlers can only be fulfilled by electrons that move sunward.
Leif, regarding your forecast, is it true that your timing was off?
The method I use has a more accurate timing for working out solar maximum and solar minimum, so all that is needed for an extremely accurate forecast of solar cycles is the relationship between the length of a cycle (its timing) and the sunspot number (intensity). If you already know this how was your timing off?
Carla says:
November 2, 2013 at 12:57 pm
ee Yes, Dr. S., sometimes it does mean a Halo surrounding the sun. Having an eerily similarity to Earth’s radiation belt.
But in the cases you cite, it does not mean a halo surrounding the sun. You seem particular dense today. Halloween hangover?
Sparks says:
November 2, 2013 at 1:04 pm
Leif, regarding your forecast, is it true that your timing was off?
The method I use has a more accurate timing for working out solar maximum and solar minimum, so all that is needed for an extremely accurate forecast of solar cycles is the relationship between the length of a cycle (its timing) and the sunspot number (intensity). If you already know this how was your timing off?
I didn’t really predict the time of the maximum. This was back in 2004 and it was not known how long cycle 23 was going to be. The relationship between length and size is not absolute, for example the very high cycle 4 was one of the longest cycles ever.
We used a ‘nominal’ [average] cycle length in our 2004 paper http://www.leif.org/research/Cycle%2024%20Smallest%20100%20years.pdf to get maximum on 2011. And BTW the highest sunspot number in any month of SC24 was in November of 2011.
Should we add “counter-streaming solar wind suprathermal electrons,” to the “electron halo,” which is very much apart of the solar corona. Gee. Dr, S., these guys can paddle upstream.
ee suprathermal sounds hot to me.
Statistics of counter-streaming solar wind suprathermal electrons at solar minimum:
STEREO observations
http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/00/45/54/66/PDF/halo_depletion_lavraud.pdf
B. Lavraud,1,2 A. Opitz,1,2 J. T. Gosling,3 A. P. Rouillard,4 K. Meziane,5 J.-A.
Sauvaud,1,2 A. Fedorov,1,2 I. Dandouras,1,2 V. Génot,1,2 C. Jacquey,1,2 P.
Louarn,1,2 C. Mazelle,1,2 E. Penou,1,2 D. E. Larson,6 J. G. Luhmann,6 P.
Schroeder,6 L. Jian,7 C. T. Russell,7 C. Foullon,8 R. M. Skoug,9 J. T.
Steinberg,9 K. D. Simunac,10 and A. B. Galvin10
10 Feb 2010
Abstract. Previous work has shown that solar wind suprathermal electrons can display a
number of features in terms of their anisotropy. Of importance is the occurrence of counterstreaming
electron patterns, i.e., with “beams” both parallel and anti-parallel to the local
magnetic field, which is believed to shed light on the heliospheric magnetic field topology. In
the present study, we use STEREO data to obtain the statistical properties of counterstreaming
suprathermal electrons (CSEs) in the vicinity of corotating interaction regions
(CIRs) during the period March – December 2007. Because this period corresponds to a
minimum of solar activity, the results are unrelated to the sampling of large-scale coronal
mass ejections, which can lead to CSE owing to their closed magnetic field topology. The
present study statistically confirms that CSEs are primarily the result of suprathermal electron
leakage from the compressed CIR into the upstream regions with the combined occurrence of
halo depletion at 90° pitch angle…
Carla says:
November 2, 2013 at 1:27 pm
Should we add “counter-streaming solar wind suprathermal electrons,” to the “electron halo,” which is very much apart of the solar corona. Gee. Dr, S., these guys can paddle upstream.
ee suprathermal sounds hot to me.
No, because there is no electron halo around the sun. Energetic particles can always travel upstream, For example ordinary cosmic rays. The particles you are confabulating about are a very small number of energetic particles that do not couple anything.
Leif, even though the timing was a bit off I still think it is impressive to predict SC24 to be weakest for 100 years Using the precursor method, you should look into methods that deal with timing and use them with your precursor method.
The relationship between length and size is not absolute
This appears to be true for maximum peak to peak, though weaker cycles generally have longer solar minimums can this relationship between solar minimums and sunspot number be used?
Don’t take this so personal Dr. S. The GCR in the form of an “Suprathermal Electron Halo,” surround the Sun as a disk and what of it that it is of INTERSTELLAR ORIGIN. And those same suprathermal electrons with their corotating interaction regions are some how affecting solar rotation and thereby the solar cycle, then yes.. I am particularly full of it today…my brain is more densely populated with electron densitys and interactions within rotating magnetospheres. You really might take a lookee see..
And from the intro of the same article:
Statistics of counter-streaming solar wind suprathermal electrons at solar minimum:
STEREO observations
http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/00/45/54/66/PDF/halo_depletion_lavraud.pdf
1.1. Counter-streaming suprathermal electron patterns
Owing to their mean-free path of order 1 AU, solar wind suprathermal electrons are essentially collision-less.
They travel freely along the magnetic field while thermal electrons and ions are essentially bound to one another in the solar wind rest frame. Up to about 2 keV, solar wind electrons can be decomposed into three main populations (e.g., Feldman et al., 1975; Pilipp et al., 1987a): (1) the “core” population, extending from zero to several tens of eV and whose density, temperature and anisotropy are variable; (2) the “halo” population, a tenuous and generally isotropic suprathermal population (typically above 70 eV); and (3) the “strahl”, an intense beam of suprathermal electrons aligned to the magnetic field and directed outward from the Sun;
it carries a substantial heat flux away
from the solar corona.
Solar wind electron spectra near 1 AU are characterized by a clear spectral breakpoint
around 70 eV that separates the halo and strahl from the thermal electrons.
There often occur substantial departures from the general characteristics of solar wind electrons given above.
This is specifically true for the suprathermal populations (halo and strahl) whose properties shed light on the heliospheric magnetic topology
(e.g., Gosling et al., 1987; Gosling, 1990; Kahler and Lin, 1994).
In particular,
counter-streaming, i.e., sunward-directed
suprathermal electron beam-like features are frequently observed in the solar wind.
(1) Strahl broadening at heliospheric distances beyond 1 AU (Hammond et al., 1996) may occur due to waveparticle
interactions and pitch angle (PA) scattering (e.g., Gary et al., 1994; Vocks et al., 2005; Saito and Gary,
2007; de Koning et al., 2007; Owens et al., 2008; and references therein).
This process is also deemed to contribute to the formation of the sunward-directed portion of the roughly isotropic halo population (Gosling et al., 2001a; Maksimovic et al., 2005; Štverák et al., 2009),
which cannot be reproduced by simple exospheric solar wind
models (Lie-Svendsen et al., 1997; Pierrard et al., 1999; Maksimovic et al., 2005)…
Carla says:
November 2, 2013 at 2:02 pm
Don’t take this so personal Dr. S. The GCR in the form of an “Suprathermal Electron Halo,” surround the Sun as a disk
There is no disk surrounding the Sun. The GCR electron halo is related to the disk of the Galaxy, not to the Sun and has to do with how some electrons can escape the disk [because there are hotter]. You are thoroughly confused, as people often are when they are pursing an idee fixe http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Id%C3%A9e_fixe_(psychology)