From the soon to be a Climate Crock of the Week department, Barry Woods writes to me in an email:
One of the insights in the climategate emails was perhaps how poisonous Michael Mann’s involvement was, for the niche area of the paleo science community (ego due to IPCC and Hockey Stick)?
This tweet from earlier this morning (now deleted, only a text version survives -Anthony) shows the immediate labeling of “denier” for another scientist who disagrees with his paleo work.
Michael E. Mann @MichaelEMann
Closet #climatechange #denier Rob Wilson, comes out of the closet big time: http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2013/10/21/wilson-on-millennial-temperature-reconstructions.html … #BadScience #DisingenuousBehavior
Shortly afterwards, Mann got into a long and somewhat huffy discussion with Tamsin Edwards over that labeling, here’s the opening salvo:
Also in the feed earlier this morning, (though I can’t find it now) was a Tweet from Mann backing down saying he’d withhold judgment on Rob Wilson until he confirmed those words, suggesting that Andrew Montford (Bishop Hill) had misinterpreted Wilson’s words..
That Tweet apparently has disappeared too. (A WUWT commenter found it, see below, but the original “denier” tweet is still missing -A) I wasn’t going to bother with this article until Dr. Mann started disappearing his own words.
Awful blog piece (http://t.co/61oFMFD3Ho) may well have misrepresented Rob Wilson's views. I suspend judgment, pending his disavowal of it..
— Dr. Michael E. Mann (@MichaelEMann) October 21, 2013
Woods continues:
[About the same time] Rob Wilson, had just publicly confirmed (in comments at Bishop Hill) that he thought and had publicly told students, public, etc Mann’s recent work was a ‘crock of shit’… (his words)
“Lastly, the “crock of xxxx” statement was focussed entirely on recent work By Michael Mann w.r.t. hypothesised missing rings in tree-ring records (a whole bunch of papers listed below).
Although a rather flippant statement, I stand by it and Mann is well aware of my criticisms (privately and through the peer reviewed literature) of his recent work.
Rob”
in the comments
Here it is in full:
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Greetings.
Although I vetted Andrew’s post, I want to clarify that my 2 hour lecture was, I hope, a critical look at all of the northern hemispheric reconstructions of past temperature to date. It was not focussed entirely on Michael Mann’s work. I described each of the major studies and tried to highlight both their strengths and weaknesses – they all have some useful information but it is important to understand the limitations of the studies as well. Of course Mann’s work was mentioned as several of his papers have been so prominent over the last 15 years but I actually spent substantially more time taking apart the D’Arrigo et al. (2006) study on which I did much of the analysis.
This was a session where I wanted the students to critically look at the different studies and specifically address what we can learn from them and how the science can move on over the next decade. Such large scale reconstructions are critically important for understanding the controls on large climate variability, but as yet, due to great uncertainties and large differences in reconstructed amplitude, they are not yet very useful at constraining modelled estimates of future temperature change.
Bar some personal comments, much of what I said is published (see papers below) and is in the public domain.
Lastly, the “crock of xxxx” statement was focussed entirely on recent work By Michael Mann w.r.t. hypothesised missing rings in tree-ring records (a whole bunch of papers listed below). Although a rather flippant statement, I stand by it and Mann is well aware of my criticisms (privately and through the peer reviewed literature) of his recent work.
Rob
I hope all the PDF links below.
NH RELATED PAPERS
Edwards, T.L., Crucifix, M. and Harrison, S.P., 2007. Using the past to constrain the future: how the palaeorecord can improve estimates of global warming. Progress in Physical Geography 31 (5), 481-500.
http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/~rjsw/papers/Edwardsetal2007.pdf
D’Arrigo, R., Wilson, R. and Jacoby, G. 2006. On the long-term context for late 20th century warming. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 111, D03103, doi:10.1029/2005JD006352
http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/~rjsw/all%20pdfs/DArrigoetal2006a.pdf
D Frank, D., J. Esper, E. Zorita, R. Wilson. (2010). A noodle, hockey stick, and spaghetti plate: a perspective on high resolution paleoclimatology. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change. doi: 10.1002/wcc.53.
http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/~rjsw/all%20pdfs/Franketal2010.pdf
Trieste 2008 Paleoclimate Uncertainties Workshop, Final Report.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/reports/trieste2008/trieste2008final.pdf
Esper J, Frank DC, Wilson RJS (2004) Climate reconstructions – low frequency ambition and high frequency ratification. EOS 85, 113, 120.
http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/~rjsw/all%20pdfs/Esperetal2004.pdf
Esper J, Wilson RJS, Frank DC, Moberg A, Wanner H, Luterbacher J (2005) Climate: past ranges and future changes. Quaternary Science Reviews 24, 2164-2166.
http://www.geo.uni-mainz.de/Dateien/Esper_2005_QSR.pdf
MISSING TREE-RINGS AND MAJOR VOLCANIC EVENTS
Mann et al. 2012. Underestimation of Volcanic Cooling in Tree-Ring Based Reconstructions of Hemispheric Temperatures, Nature Geoscience, 5, 202-205.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/articles/MFRNatureGeosci12.pdf
Anchukaitis, K. et al. (2012). Tree rings and volcanic cooling. Nature Geoscience. 5: 836–837. doi:10.1038/ngeo1645
http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/~rjsw/all%20pdfs/Anchukaitisetal2012.pdf
Mann et al. (2013). Discrepancies between the modeled and proxy-reconstructed response to volcanic forcing over the past millennium: Implications and possible mechanisms. JGR. 118, 14, p. 7617-7627.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/Mann/articles/articles/MRSTF-JGRInPress.pdf
Esper J et al (2013) Testing the hypothesis of post-volcanic missing rings in temperature sensitive dendrochronological data. Dendrochronologia. 31 (3): 216-222.
http://www.blogs.uni-mainz.de/fb09climatology/files/2012/03/Esper_2013_Den.pdf
Esper J et al (2013) European summer temperature response to annually dated volcanic eruptions over the past nine centuries. Bulletin of Volcanology 75, 736, doi: 10.1007/s00445-013-0736-z.
http://www.blogs.uni-mainz.de/fb09climatology/files/2012/03/Esper_2013_BullVol.pdf
St. George et al. (2013). The rarity of absent growth rings in Northern Hemisphere forests
outside the American Southwest. Geophysical Research Letters 40, doi:10.1002/grl.50743
http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/~rjsw/all%20pdfs/Stgeorge2013.pdf
D’Arrigo, et al. (2013). Volcanic cooling signal in tree-ring temperature reconstructions for the past millennium, Journal of Geophysical Research, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50692
http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/~rjsw/all%20pdfs/D’Arrigoetal2013.pdf
Rob Wilson ==================================================================
It seems that Rob Wilson has some serious basis for the claim, and he’s sticking by it.
Ross McKitrick sums it up pretty well in a comment:
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Mann’s tweet just reveals openly what has long been his working assumption. To Mann, a “skeptic” is anyone who doesn’t accept his work uncritically, and a “denier” is anyone who actually disagrees with him.
Ross McKitrick ==================================================================
This is Rob Wilson:
Rob Wilson Earth and Environmental Sciences – Senior Lecturer
School of Geography and Geosciences
Irvine Building
St Andrews
KY16 9AL
United Kingdom
It seems he is well qualified to spot paleo-crocks:
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A tree-ring reconstruction of East Anglian (UK) hydroclimate variability over the last millennium
Cooper, R. J., Melvin, T. M., Tyers, I., Wilson, R. J. S. & Briffa, K. R. Feb 2013 In : Climate Dynamics. 40, 3-4, p. 1019-1039
Article
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Contrasting water-uptake and growth responses to drought in co-occurring riparian tree species
Singer, M. B., Stella, J., Piegay, H., Dufour, S., Wilson, R. & Johnstone, L. 2013 In : Ecohydrology. 6, 3, p. 402Article
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Orbital forcing of tree-ring data
Esper, J., Frank, D. C., Timonen, M., Zorita, E., Wilson, R., Luterbacher, J., Holzkämper, S., Fischer, N., Wagner, S., Nievergelt, D., Verstege, A. & Büntgen, U. Dec 2012 In : Nature Climate Change. 2, 12, p. 862-866
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Update: In case anyone doubts the “poisonous” nature of the rhetoric Dr. Mann uses, I’ll point out what he has begun labeling an Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, who wanted to look at Mann’s UVA emails under FOIA.
Conservative @RTDNEWS refuses to endorse #Cooch for #VAGov, citing "divisive agenda..that was unbecoming in an AG" http://t.co/ggCl4RbNSz
— Dr. Michael E. Mann (@MichaelEMann) October 20, 2013
The definition of the slang word “cooch” is:
Source: http://onlineslangdictionary.com/meaning-definition-of/cooch
What a terrible misogynistic label to apply to somebody. You’d think with the recent sexual harassment scandal over Scientific American’s Bora Zivkovic and his actions, Dr. Mann would be a bit more reserved in such nasty labeling.
My advice to Dr. Mann: When you’ve tweeted yourself into a hole, stop tweeting.
Anthony, thanks for this expose. Rob would seem to part of the future hope for proper university education on these climate subjects. His courage in speaking truth is commendable. Your effort to lett him vet your post shows how much leadership you have of an invaluable global open source scientific network/publication/ resource. Bravo to both of you.
Once again this shows how Mann steps over all lines of decency and fact, then tries to erase the fact that he has done so from the record. In my world view, a pathetic firable offense.
Mann obviously has a few things yet to learn about the indelible nature of ‘ephemeral’ electronic communications. It is not just the NSA, or Petraus’ mistress’ phone calls. You know, it is also just the reason hard drives, thumb drives, snapshot .pdfs, and other backup archival systems were invented formthe restnof us keeping watch on something or other.
Mann is still fighting that in re his UVA emails. A lawsuit from which he has obviously learned nothing. Perhaps volcanic forcings also cause Mannian ‘memory ring’ lapses? Of course, there have inconveniently been no such VEI forcings since Pintubo. So Mann will need to manufacture some other explanation. Somehow, I think he might.
tarran: “Rather correcting the deficiencies in his work, Mann concentrated on maintaining a pretense that his papers are unassailable.”
Sure, but then that’s the normal practice of things. Scientists of any stripe, public or private, make their wage by producing useful results. Not, producing correct ones. And as much as we’d like the two to be the same, they only intersect each other. And as long as that’s the case, the wrong scientist, the unproductive scientists, and the outright fraud will all shriek to the heavens when called out. They have kids to feed.
Specifically, one can state that the only benefit to peer review is precisely that it does keep the rhetoric dialed back. As who allows you to eat is the who you allow to eat; it’s all Brothers-in-arms, or Mutually-assured-destruction. That also means there will be far more fraud and nonsense than otherwise. But it does keep the wheels greased for people more interested in the tenor then the tensors.
Gavin Schmidt @ClimateOfGavin 1m
Science is not linear. Interesting ideas can be proposed & challenged (w/o anyone’s work being a ‘crock’). Leads to deeper understanding.
Gavin Schmidt @ClimateOfGavin 1m
Science is not linear. Interesting ideas can be proposed & challenged (w/o anyone’s work being a ‘crock’). Leads to deeper understanding.
If Mann studied the cross section of an old crock, would he be able to identify its contents?
(Before indoor plumbing a lidded crock was sometimes kept beneath the bed.)
The above is a tweet by Gavin Schmidt. Is Gavin becomes a skeptic?
But, but, but… Mann’s “work” really IS a crock of…
Its clear, Mann was already an embarrassment to his peers, though happy for him to blow his trumpet in private. Now he’s blowing it more and more within ear-shot, and sometimes in their own faces, they’re getting a little fed up. Fun to watch!
Michael Mann came from nothing and looks like slowly going back to nothing. His lack of ability is hidden by the blunderbuss aimed at any criticism. His only claim to fame is the very questionable Hockey Stick and nothing in real science. Condemed to obscurity where he belongs.
I love this guy! He keeps pitching them up and we keep knocking them out of the park. To those of you suggesting we ignore him……don’t. This is exactly the type of guy we want on the pitchers mound.
Does Rob Wilson have a good lawyer?
Just like McCarthy, he’s going to one day call the wrong person a denier, and it’ll be over.
Mann is neither a man nor a scientist. He represents corrupt illiterate scientism and is too much of a [snip] to provide proof for his theology or properly defend it.
Somebody out there probably has the quote, but didn’t a warmer once say something to the effect that Al Gore was becoming a liability to “the cause”?
How long before before they say that of Mann?
It amazes me mann is still taken serious by so many.
I would not put it past Mann to be using the term Cooch that way. However, Cuccinelli is known by his nickname of The Cooch.
Mann is doing more for the alarmist cause than any other person. Single handedly killing any credibility they may have had.
What I love about Mann is that he simply doesn’t have the sense to lie down.
I wonder if any science historians can enlighten me.
Did Einstein or Newton suffer from a Mann-equivilent pestilential boil. One that was lanced and subsequently faded into the obscurity of the bathroom flannel
Given that Mann attempted to rewrite climate history, may he suffer the fate of all those before him attempting to rewrite history of any kind. He falls into the same category as the Holocaust Deniers, as far as I am concerned.
Ah – Mann’s world – if he didn’t exist we’d have to make an android with such life like characteristics to kill global warming from the inside. Thankfully he comes equipped with such a terrible attitude and a complete lack of communication skills.
Just the anticipation of future warming has caused Michael Mann to become more extreme. If it actually happened, he would become insufferable.
“Mann’s recent work was a ‘crock of xxxx’”
As opposed to his previous work which was a bucket of xxxx.
LOL
Too much attention to the dirty linen of a pathetic forger, IMO.
not only a blemish on the climate science community,but a blemish upon humanity.it may well prove to be a good thing for science in the long run, in the not too distant future mann will become a pariah,shunned not only by his peers, but every person in the developed world with half a brain cell.
nice to know rob wilson actually teaches science in my local university,considering its struggle for funding,it would be all too easy to jump on the bad science bandwagon.
Sounds like Dr Mann needs to go hide in the deep ocean along with the heat.