While many science related government agencies are shut down (NASA GISS is deemed ‘non-essential’ for example) some remain open due to statements like this:
Due to the Federal Government shutdown, NOAA.gov and most associated web sites are unavailable. However, because the information this site provides is necessary to protect life and property, it will be updated and maintained during the Federal Government shutdown.
The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center remains open, and they’ve updated their solar cycle progression graph set. Today, as we watch the sun we find only two small sunspot groups, both rather anemic.
![latest_512_4500[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/10/latest_512_45001.jpg?quality=83)
The latest data is not encouraging for Solar Cycle 24 as the SSN numbers have taken a pretty big hit. In fact, all the solar metrics have taken a hit at a time near the peak when their should be many more sunspots and indications of an active solar dynamo.
The SSN numbers for September dropped to about 37:
Radio flux is also down:
And the Ap Index, an indicator of solar magnetic activity is still bumping along the bottom. Compare it to the peaks seen in Solar Cycle 23 in 2004:
Clearly, we’ve passed solar max, as this magnetic field chart showing the magnetic filed has reversed (a signature of solar max) shows:
Solar Polar Fields – Mt. Wilson and Wilcox Combined -1966 to Present
From Dr. Leif Svalgaard – Click the pic to view at source
It seems that even though the solar magnetic field has flipped, predictions of associated climate doom have not come to pass.
Date: 07/10/13
Sun’s magnetic field about to flip, could affect Earth’s climate
The Sun’s magnetic field is soon going to flip by 180-degrees which could lead to changes in climate, storms and even disrupt satellites, scientists have warned. The Sun’s magnetic field changes polarity approximately every 11 years. It happens at the peak of each solar cycle as the Sun’s inner magnetic dynamo re-organises itself.
http://www.thegwpf.org/suns-magnetic-field-flip-affect-earths-climate/
Rather than an active flip, it’s more like the sun is rolling over and playing dead.
More at the WUWT Solar reference page
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https://www.google.com/#q=solar+versus+temp+variation+last+1000+years
How about we just don’t reopen GISS at all?
The sun’s flip or lack of flip of it’s magnetic field has NO climate relationship.
Today, as we watch a the sun we find only two small sunspot groups, both rather anemic.
SIDC reports for today 5 groups, Kanzelhohe 7 groups, NOAA 5 groups.
milodonharlani says:
“How about we just don’t reopen GISS at all?”
Good point. With the government shutdown, there is no reason to fund non-essential departments like GISS. They evict old folks from their own homes. How is that OK, but shutting down GISS is off-limits?
Today, as we watch a the sun we find only two small sunspot groups, both rather anemic.
SIDC reports for today 5 groups, Kanzelhohe 7 groups, NOAA 5 groups, Catania 10 groups, Crimea 4 groups.
REPLY: Obviously, they are better at counting sunspecks than I, a problem we both know about. From my viewpoint I only saw two groups of significance- Anthony
What will have a climate impact is IF the following solar parameters reach the averages I list below.:
They are the following:
solar flux avg. sub 90
euv light avg. sub 100 units
ap index avg. sub 5.0
cosmic ray count per minute avg. north of 6500
solar irradiance avg. off.015% or more
solar wind avg. sub 350km/sec or lower
imf field avg. 4.0 nt or lower
Once these solar averages are attained following several years of sub solar activity in general(20005- present) the temperature trend will be down due to the primary solar effects themselves and the associated secondary effects.
As solar cycle 24 winds down and we head into very weak solar cycle 25 these solar average I have listed above should be able to be attained, for much of the time.
Many studies which I can post suggest the Maunder Minimum featured solar parameters as low or lower then what I have put forth, and past history shows this was the coldest part of the LITTLE ICE AGE(1350-1850 approx.) which itself was in response to very low solar activity in general throughout that time period.
Salvatore Del Prete says:
October 7, 2013 at 9:27 am
https://www.google.com/#q=solar+versus+temp+variation+last+1000+years
Wow – seriously? Did you even do that Google search? I think if you had you wouldn’t have bothered posting it… first comment too… pathetic.
Now, if there was an actual chart there somewhere, that would be interesting… of course, assuming they used the same method to gauge modern sunspots and temperature as they did 1000 years ago
Leif on Aug. 06th predicted from Aug.06-Dec. 31,2013 that the solar flux would average 120 and the ap index 10.
So far much below those predictions. .
tmonroe says:
October 7, 2013 at 9:43 am
Now, if there was an actual chart there somewhere, that would be interesting… of course, assuming they used the same method to gauge modern sunspots and temperature as they did 1000 years ago
http://www.leif.org/research/NH-Temperatures.png is perhaps the best there is.
Salvatore Del Prete says:
October 5, 2013 at 10:58 am
Salvatore Del Prete says:
October 4, 2013 at 11:42 am
Salvatore Del Prete says:
September 24, 2013 at 11:20 am
http://books.google.com/books?id=vUtSluaODqYC&pg=PA45&lpg=PA45&dq=the+11+year+solar+cycle+continued+during+the+maunder+minimum&source=bl&ots=g4qt3JnWMQ&sig=URAhIGZWdOjfuRpPj4w6ZRNnSx8&hl=en&sa=X&ei=Y-09UtWKFuaHygHOiYCYDg&ved=0CC8Q6AEwATgK#v=onepage&q=the%2011%20year%20solar%20cycle%20continued%20during%20the%20maunder%20minimum&f
This study is of my school of thought when it comes to solar variability. Time will tell.
lsvalgaard says
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/10/07/september-solar-slump-continues/#comment-1439259
henry says
no doubt Lsvalgaard (who continues to deny there is a God who actually made the weather)
still cannot see that you can draw a binomial , i.e. a para- (from the top) and hyper- (from the bottom) bolic curve for the sun’s polar field strengths that will show that the slump will continue until at least 2016 as predicted by me (and others).
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2013/04/29/the-climate-is-changing/
Ug. Time to knock the little red line another notch.
http://iceagenow.info/page/2/
What’s happening with the Livingston & Penn effect, Leif? It looks to my (untrained) eye as if it is flattening out. Is that your interpretation, or is it too soon to come to any conclusions?
I would be interested to read your take on this.
TIA.
http://www.leif.org/research/NH-Temperatures.png is perhaps the best there is.
That chart has been proven to be completely false. It is a joke.
Anything is possible says:
October 7, 2013 at 9:57 am
What’s happening with the Livingston & Penn effect, Leif? It looks to my (untrained) eye as if it is flattening out.
It is flattening out: http://www.leif.org/research/Livingston%20and%20Penn.png as it should if the sun keeps cutting off the low end of the distribution below 1500 Gauss.
Like Kanzelhohe, SDO HMIIF 1K has 7 groups at noon UT: http://solen.info/solar/images/2013/10/SDO_20131007.png
TSI is just going up and down about 0.1% Guess we’ll find out in a few years (or decades) how much TSI matters versus sunspots. Especially if we have extremely low cycles.
How quickly did the European glaciers rebound in the last minimum? Temperature isn’t enough of demonstration for most, while the imagery of small Swiss villages buried in ice should end the CO2 hysteria.
https://www.google.com/#q=a+graph+of+temperatures+for+last+1000+years
The temp. graph in this article is an accurate picture of the true temp. changes that have taken place over the last 1000 years.
the article that is from watts up with that
New paper confirms the climate was warmer 1000 years ago | Watts
THIS ONE HAS THE ACCURATE TEMP. CHART.
Bill says:
October 7, 2013 at 10:04 am
TSI is just going up and down about 0.1% Guess we’ll find out in a few years (or decades) how much TSI matters versus sunspots. Especially if we have extremely low cycles.
TSI has not gone down as cycle 24 has done, neither has the number of CMEs:
http://www.leif.org/research/TSI-not-following-SSN-F107.png
The magnetic flux for solar cycle 24 is among the lowest since solar cycle 5 and that is where it is at, when it comes to the climate.
Look at the ap index post 2005 in contrast to prior 2005.