NOTE: like with the essay Saturday about isotasy/glacial rebound being a myth, I don’t think the chemtrails idea has any merit whatsoever. Dr. Tim Ball points out more bad science – chemtrails, which are really just contrails, and which has a cult-like following much like some of the worst theories of global warming zealots – Anthony
“It occurred to me….” To avoid political correctness and say what they really think people say, let me play Devil’s Advocate.
Guest essay by Dr. Tim Ball
One minute people say government does too much, the next they demand action to resolve problems. Environmentalists demand government stop global warming, but oppose remedial actions like spreading iron filings on the oceans to increase uptake of CO2 or spraying chemicals into the atmosphere to create clouds to block sunlight and reduce global temperatures. Both actions are wrong because they constitute geo-engineering – governments playing God. The real problem is neither governments nor opponents know what is happening, but think they do, so demand action. Doing nothing is better if you don’t understand, contrary to the false claim of the precautionary principle. Environmental issues are a war and as Aeschylus said “In war truth is the first casualty”.
Figure 1 shows the different atmospheric layers each defined by temperature changes that reflect different chemistry.
The critical boundary is the Tropopause between the Troposphere, where 99% of the weather occurs, and the Stratosphere. It’s a very distinct boundary marking different density of gases and a change in temperature from a decrease with altitude to an increase. There are few gases thinly spread in the Stratosphere.
Figure 1 shows the Tropopause at 17 km. Actually, this varies considerably from Equator to Poles, mostly because of temperature. Seasonal temperatures also create differences. Variation at the Equator is 17 km (winter) to 19 km (summer). At the Poles it is 7km (winter) to 10 km (summer). Seasonal range is greater at the Poles because of greater seasonal temperature range.
Naturally, it is far more complicated. Understanding of some Troposphere dynamics are very recent. The Tropopause is not continuous, being broken by wind circulation patterns as Figure 2 shows.
PFJ =Polar Front Jet; STJ = SubTropical Jet
Twenty years ago my graduate class in Applied Climatology involved a briefing as a commercial pilot flying from Winnipeg to Vancouver. I realized most flights were partly in the lower Stratosphere. Since then these flights have increased because of better aircraft pressurization and more efficient engines in colder temperatures at higher altitudes.
I learned of changing flight patterns when flying search and rescue in northern and Arctic Canada. Flights increased significantly because of the end of the Cold War. with more flights over greater distances and different routes. The amount of traffic has increased significantly, especially the number of flights to Asia, most of which fly out of North America using “great circle” routes that brings them over western North America and Alaska or over the Pole.
Great circle routes take Asian bound aircraft across the general westerly flow of the upper level winds. This means condensation trails and high level clouds, especially Cirrus and contrails in the lower stratosphere are being dispersed in the same direction. Temperatures at these altitudes mean most of the gases condense directly to ice crystals. This makes them very visible, but also slow to dissipate.
A Contrail is exhaust from an aircraft engine cooling very rapidly below the dew point temperature and condensing into a visible trail of microscopic droplets. Through binoculars you can see the gap between the jet engine and the beginning of the trail. Earlier I mentioned that the gas constituency of the lower Stratosphere, where these planes fly, is different being much thinner and colder than in the upper Troposphere. Aircraft exhaust is a much higher percentage of total gas in the Stratosphere. This creates very different contrails, rates of dissipation and other factors. I mentioned that there are clouds in the lower Stratosphere called Noctilucent clouds. Here are some pictures of these clouds from Wikipedia:
Compare those images with these of Cirrus clouds also retrieved from Wikipedia.
Many confuse noctilucent clouds with chemtrails or contrails. Many confuse lower stratosphere contrails with chemtrails. It’s probably because most they want to see chemtrails. I’ve received many photos as evidence of chemtrails that are contrails, high cirrus or noctilucent events.
Noctilucent cloud occurrences are reportedly increasing. Is it possible the increase is because noctilucent clouds “ …are most commonly observed in the summer months at latitudes between 50° and 70° north and south of the equator.” These are the latitudes at which most flight increases have occurred. It is likely the increase in reported chemtrails are actually contrails from lower stratosphere flights.
There may be issues with flights in the stratosphere but nobody is really looking, possibly because the obvious solution is politically unattractive. Fuel consumption increases at lower altitudes. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) doesn’t include the lower Stratosphere in their models. From the 2007 Science report:
“Due to the computational cost associated with the requirement of a well-resolved stratosphere, the models employed for the current assessment do not generally include the QBO.”
The QBO is linked with El Nino/La Nina. They, as well as ozone and clouds in the Stratosphere, are significant factors in Tropospheric weather. Some claim Stratospheric changes explain global temperatures better than IPCC and other models. Lu et al wrote:
All the observed, analytical and theoretical results presented lead to a convincing conclusion that both the CRE (cosmic-ray driven electron-induced-reaction) mechanism and the CFC-warming mechanism not only provide new fundamental understandings of the O3 hole and global climate change but have superior predictive capabilities, compared with the conventional models.
We need answers from science, free from politics. People need to sort out what actions and issues governments should be taking, but we can only do that if we understand the issues. Since we don’t, it is better to do nothing.
We must avoid the irresponsibility of the precautionary principle.
Related articles
- Chemtrails versus Contrails: Do Conspiracy Theories Make Sense? (cliffmass.blogspot.com)
- Weather control conspiracy theories: scientifically unjustifiable (washingtonpost.com)
I think that the existence of such research programs as:
http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/08/30/climate-sunshade-idINDEE87T0K420120830
is what is commonly referred to as the production of Chem Trails. It is certainly true that there are at least proposals to disperse particles from various aircraft which are designed to disprupt the natural climate (Climate Engineering).
The “conspiracy” issue arises where people point at every trail in the sky and scream: “Chem Trail, they are poisoning us!”. It is not beyond the realms of possibility though that the US government would run a covert operation without the proper checks and balances to experiment with, for example, how to create a drought above an enemy nation.
So whilst it is unlikely that the US government are trying to kill US citizens using “Chem Trails”, it is likely that governments are researching how to affect the weather over enemy territory.
What a fantastic weapon, to be able to destroy a nations food supply! Kaaa boom! It is not a war crime either, since the US has granted itself immunity from any war crimes prosecutions ever! [/sarc /snipe].
A simple calculation of the amount of “product” (which as never been analyzed) should be enough to discredit this stupidity.
Also why to do it on the oceans or inhabited area, where is the common sens ?
When we have a video send the 20 of august Californian time and in fact 7 am 21 august 2013 Damascus time (sunset 6.01 am that day) with a sun to nearly zenith we can strongly doubt that the video showing people dead supposed to be killed at 3 am of the same day is at least doubtful.
If there is a conspiracy it is the stupidity like HARP chemtrails or AGW which all have in common misunderstanding of the amount of energy needed, probably the reason of their success, it make the “believer” thinking that that man is huge , it also can discredit totally some facts which are very real.
“… in the lower Stratosphere called Noctilucent clouds.”
Should that not read in the Mesosphere, well above the Stratosphere?
I love it when we get to talk dirty! These taboo subjects help clear the air of riff raff theories! Especially when believers try to talk all sciency about them.
I have seen contrails develop only from the engines, never from the wingtips. I travel frequently between Los Angeles and Honolulu (over 200 round trips in 35 years now). Occasionally the airliner I’m in is above and in trail, offset laterally, behind another on the same course for hours. Invariably the contrails form behind each engine. It would be interesting to see any pictures showing contrails from the wingtips.
I changed the meme from “Chemtrail” to “Geo-Engineering” in the blogosphere about two years ago to be more scientifically accurate and get the debate into the mainstream. It really worked like a charm. Both words work for me just fine, but psychological conditioning has made many averse to the discussion. No matter if you acknowledge the persistent contrails in the skies contain added chemicals or not, causing their lingering dispersion overcast effect, I just ask you to do some math.
Commercial jet aircraft numbers in the skies cannot account for the tick tack toe patters and all day long trail patterns being laid in the skies. In my neighborhood of SW Florida we have maximum number of passenger jets in very low numbers. My skies are not heavenly traveled by commercial passenger aircraft. So who owns the planes lingering in my skies all day long and why are they there? Just to waste jet fuel? I think not.
Pilots Learn about Geoengineering & Chemtrails, presentation by David Lim, UK March 2013
What a load of ballony. I’m sick of all this, white trails are ice crystals forming from the wings of the airline. It is so high up, and depending on the weather too. Gosh when I was shown this I could not believe they were worried or hysterical about it. One picture circulating I showed to a pilot and he laughed. ” This is a 707 hasn’t flown for years and it does not have any exhaust pipes under the plane, where it appears white stuff is being sprayed, it is photo shopped”Chemicals being sprayed on land are done at a low altitude, and heavily regulated regarding sprays being dispersed over habitations, and concerning wind factors and distribution.. I got caught once when a low flying crop duster flew near me, and I got something in my eye, that really stung for a long time. He was obviously just finished and some residue hit me accidentally. I was told later studying my diploma in organic agricultural production that it probably was a phosphate, like super phosphate. Next the 9/II tragedy will be resurrected, as an inside job? Gosh! The problem was there was that they never alerted the air force fighters, they could not believe this was happening to them. A stuff up of a large magnitude.
Mariss says:
September 2, 2013 at 6:31 pm
Wingtip Contrail:
http://hypeitng.com/2013/06/turkish-airlines-777-fc-barcelona-livery-contrails/
30-odd year Professional Pilot big and small- government contractor too-never have I heard of
seen or been around anyone that has said or done anything that contributes to chemtrails..
Got into a troll fight on another site years ago about this…
Chemtrails eh? What’s the next conspiracy theory to get a mention – HAARP? vaccines-cause-autism? fluoridation-is-sinister-mind-control?
On a more serious note – surely noctilucent clouds are at an altitude of ~80 km – way above any air routes?
Seeding clouds was tried in Australia, and they did not work. One university suggested that volcanoes cool the planet and that sulphur dioxide should be sprayed on clouds to do the same.
That is almost as bad as planting huge fans under the sea to keep circulating the gulf stream.
cotwome – definitely from the engines – ahead of the stabilizer tips
I’ve often thought about changes to our ‘physical’ atmosphere with time and how this could influence warming/cooling climate trends.
Is there any information on variations in the height of the tropopause over time?
Clearly, the thickness of our atmosphere blanket will have a huge influence on ground temperature As our planet has evolved surely the atmosphere has grown thicker as more gases have been added from volcanoes, microbial activity etc – clearly not a steady state system.
Have seen wing tip vortices many times, humidity dependent. Usually see them at low altitude in humid conditions. Fighter jets really show them due to angle of attack. New passenger aircraft have wing tip structures to redue vortices but notice the vortices coming off the flaps of this airliner: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-uqsfz2tfO0
But even the raised wing tips shed vortices – here is a picture of engine pod and wingtip vortices at altitude: http://www.flickr.com/photos/spiderman/6246344305/lightbox/
A nitpick for Wayne Delbeke:
> But even the raised wing tips shed vortices – here is a picture of engine pod and wingtip vortices at altitude: http://www.flickr.com/photos/spiderman/6246344305/lightbox/
The vortex on this picture that seems to be caused by the engine pod originates at a device called vortex generator mounted on the engine cowling:
This article has a good explanation of vortex generators:
http://www.aerospaceweb.org/question/aerodynamics/q0255.shtml
A commercial pilot did tell me once, that dumping fuel for whatever reason was prohibited over some regions, but on occasion when a airline comes into land, some fuel is dispensed that could be toxic. I am not sure about how, maybe when they reverse engines? However, no reports have inferred that people near air landing areas have been exposed to toxic chemicals from commercial aircraft. But there is a smell of exhaust around air ports isn’t there.
More on vortices: http://english.turkcebilgi.com/Wingtip+vortices
Truer words were never spoken, thank you.
Great read. I’ve abided by the site rules for not posting on this subject and I hope Dr Ball will engage some of the chemtrail folks in a polite discussion. Aircraft engines have changed a lot over the last 20-25 years and maybe they just disperse things differently, maybe it is all a mistake.
Fly a drone behind the aircraft taking samples. That is the real test.
By the way to those saying HAARP couldn’t do weather modifications, ion ratio changes or other very interesting stuff please read the patents that Dr Bernard Eastland had purchased from him by ARCO. Prior art section: Nickola Tesla
It is some very interesting reading. I also recommend reading or listening to any interviews with him as he covers ground from fusion torch to HAARP to other fascinating physics topics. I was always amazed at how nonchalant he was in talking about stuff that just blew my mind.
Mariss says:
I have seen contrails develop only from the engines, never from the wingtips.
Google “wingtip contrails” change to images. ENJOY ! 🙂
I’m guessing that exhaust trails could theoretically be called “chemtrails”, because they do contain some non-atmospheric chemicals.
But one has to realise that ANY small protruding part can actually cause the pressure differences to cause contrails at altitude. Air speed sensors under the wing for eg.can cause small contrails. and as I mentioned before.. wing tip cavitation can cause major streams
I’ll bet Lew and Cook believe in chemtrails.
The thing is no one could ever get a paper published in a legitimate peer review journal that claimed that contrails are really chemtrails, a lot of climate alarmists paper are published, and many shouldn’t be.
Wayne Delbeke – Those have got to be something moist venting out of the winglet and engine directly not instant fog resulting from a high AOA pressure drop.in a high humidity condition, (and certainly nothing to do with a vortice – the winglets are there to reduce the creation of vortices).
Mariss says:
September 2, 2013 at 6:31 pm
Agreed. The combustion of hydrocarbon fuel generates a lot of water. But there’s not enough pressure drop to condense the tiny amount of water available at altitude in what is a minor wingtip vortex that occurs during cruise flight. Probably what folks are thinking is during landing, in near 100% RH air, it is usual that given the higher angles of attack a strong vortex will generate off the wingtip and generate a vapor trail. Even more strongly off the outboard end trailing flap edge. In the case of the wing generated vapor trail the amount of water is miniscule, being extracted from the water gas available in the air, and very quickly dissipates. In ideal conditions lasting maybe 6 or 8 seconds maximum. In these ideal conditions aircraft propeller tips also leave their cool multi helix vapor trails.