Jo Nova writes:
Murry Salby was sacked from Macquarie University, and Macquarie struggled to explain why, among other things, it was necessary to abandon, and strand him in Paris and hold a “misconduct” meeting in his absence. Since then he has been subject to attacks related to his previous employment. I’ve asked him to respond, which he has at length in a PDF (see below). The figures listed below refer to that PDF, which encompasses 15 years of events.
I don’t have the resources (unlike the National Science Foundation, the NSF) to investigate it all, but wanted to give Murry the right of reply.
On closer inspection the NSF report used by people to attack Salby does not appear to be the balanced, impartial analysis I would have expected. Indeed the hyperbolic language based on insubstantial evidence is disturbing to say the least. Because of the long detailed nature of this I cannot draw conclusions, except to say that any scientist who responds to a question about Murry Salby’s work with a reference to his employment is no scientist.
Remember the NSF report was supposedly an inhouse private document. It was marked “Confidential”, subject to the Privacy Act, with disclosure outside the NSF prohibited except through FOI. Desmog vaguely suggest there “must have been an FOI”, but there are no links to support that. In the end, a confidential, low standard, internal document with legalistic sounding words, may have been “leaked” to those in search of a character attack.
My summary of his reply:
See: http://joannenova.com.au/2013/08/murry-salby-responds-to-the-attacks-on-his-record/
The PDF:
Ferdinand Engelbeen says:
August 24, 2013 at 12:49 pm
“The oceans at the upwelling places contains CO2 pressurized at 750 microatm.”
You do not know this. You know only general characteristics of surface waters. You do not know the properties of the rising water column before it breaches and diffuses into the surrounding waters.
This is characteristic of your circular logic. You assume things you do not know, then make calculations based on those assumptions, and claim proof… of what? Of your assumptions leading to the answer you desire, that is what.
jimmi_the_dalek says:
August 24, 2013 at 1:16 pm
“Before you can say that there is no room for an additional human input, you have to prove it is not already in your first graph.”
No, Jimmi. The data are what they are, no matter how they came to be. The effect must maintain the same morphology as the cause. When you match the morphology, you have matched the cause to the effect.
Nyq Only says:
August 24, 2013 at 1:18 pm
“No, the argument only applies to where carbon dioxide is in solution. Burning stuff to produce CO2 would be unaffected.”
Right, because that CO2 is magic CO2.
milodonharlani says:
“To whatever extent the rise in CO2 since c. 1850 may be humans’ fault, I’m sure that green plants & other terrestrial photosynthesizers & the animals, fungi & microbes which rely upon them thank us.”
And THAT is the central point in the entire discussion, no?
Because if the only measurable effect of the rise in CO2 is a healthier biosphere, then there is no problem at all. That is why the alarmist contingent always changes the subject to model-based arguments, and studiously avoids what happens in the real world.
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Ferdinand says:
“In the Coke example temperature is largely irrelevant”
So we disagree on that point. Fair enough. But even Bill Nye, the *ahem* ‘science guy’ [who I am not citing as an authority, but as a high-school level self-promoter who doesn’t know science from his scrotum] would admit that a Coke at 25ºC would bubble out [outgas] significantly more CO2 at the same pressure than an identical Coke at 1ºC.
Since we do not agree that, as you say, the temperature effect is “largely irrelevant”. I [and most educated folks] would agree that temperature does make a real difference. You do not agree. Fine. Let’s leave it at that, because your mind is made up. We have been over this many times, and I don’t want to get into an endless nitpicking argument about it.
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Next, ‘Nyq Only’ has had his feelings hurt. My apologies. But rather than name-calling [I could certainly do much worse, if I wanted], I was simply making an analogy between runaway global warming believers, and Islamic fanatics. IMHO they are both fanatics. Alarmist blogs do not permit this sort of back-and-forth debate — one true indication of a fanatic. Their religion must never be contradicted, no matter how many verifiable facts are presented. So please, learn the difference between name-calling [your peoples’ “denialists”] and a closed=minded fanatic.
Also, I do not speak for Bart, and vice-versa. Bart has been running circles around you, so rather than debate Bart, you try to debate me with Bart’s words. My suggestion: learn who to debate. All my responses are replies to what people have written about what I said, not about what others say.
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jimmi_the_dalek,
I don’t see how we will ever agree, since you refuse to admit that the empirical evidence I posted, from several different sources, clearly shows that ∆T causes a subsequesnt ∆CO2. If those charts were meaningless as you claim, then you would have no trouble finding equally meaninglesss charts showing the opposite. But despite my constant requests, you have been unable to locate and post any such charts. So instead, you argue using a lot of words that simply do not make your case.
As I have repeatedly explained to Ferdinand and others, I am a “show me” kind of guy. When there is a dispute between models and empirical [real world] evidence, the evidence always trumps the models. It means the models are wrong.
But in your world it is the opposite. You disregard reality, posting lots of words, but which never falsify the reams of empirical observations showing conclusively that changes in temperature consistently lead changes in CO2 on all time scales out to hundreds of thousands of years. That, my friend, is the reason models are universally wrong: they began with a false premise, and as a result every last GCM on the planet totally failed to predict the past 16 – 17 years of no global warming, despite the steady rise in CO2.
I’m sorry that I can’t help you. But your mind is already made up, and as a result you are not able to accept actual, verifiable real world observations. If you want to convince scientific skeptics of your position, then “show us” is a good place to start. But so far, you have produced lots of words, but no empirical evidence to support your belief. None at all.
Bart says:
August 23, 2013 at 3:09 pm
“What possible physical reason can you advance which requires the two quantities to be the same at all times? (hint: none)”
To preempt the lame response I realize I have unfortunately allowed an entryway, let me rephrase that:
I see, realizing that you’d made a colossal error on continuity you decided to lie and make a claim about something I never said!
What possible physical reason can you advance which requires the two quantities to have the same CO2 concentration at all times? (hint: none)
Why should I since I didn’t claim that? However the downwelling water of the North Atlantic Deep Water is in fact colder than the upwelling water and therefore is likely to carry a higher concentration of CO2 downwards. Suggest you look up solubility pump and biological pump.
Bart: “Right, because that CO2 is magic CO2.”
Only if combustion is regarded as magic in your part of the world.
Phil. says:
August 25, 2013 at 10:17 am
“…realizing that you’d made a colossal error on continuity…”
No, realizing I had left a gap for a stupid person to insert a tediously trollish argument…
“…you decided to lie and make a claim about something I never said!”
If that’s not what you intended, then saying anything in the first place was totally irrelevant to the conversation, and you should have remained silent.
“However the downwelling water of the North Atlantic Deep Water is in fact colder than the upwelling water and therefore is likely to carry a higher concentration of CO2 downwards.”
So, in this world of yours, the surface will quickly become depleted of CO2. Better fire up those SUVs, double quick!
Phil, this is like shooting fish in a barrel. Give up.
Nyq Only says:
August 25, 2013 at 11:21 am
It must be terrible going through life unable to form complete logical links.
dbstealey: “But rather than name-calling [I could certainly do much worse, if I wanted], I was simply making an analogy between runaway global warming believers, and Islamic fanatics.”
i.e. name calling – which, as you point out, people do when they can’t answer another person’s points. Your ‘analogy’ didn’t advance your argument nor did it refute Jimmi’s nor did it introduce salient new ideas to the discussion.
“My suggestion: learn who to debate.” Thanks but if your style of debate includes periodic name calling when stuck then I’d rather stick to my own method.
Bart: “It must be terrible going through life unable to form complete logical links.”
I would imagine so. For example a person might spend their days posting non-sequiturs
Bart says:
August 25, 2013 at 9:34 am
“The oceans at the upwelling places contains CO2 pressurized at 750 microatm.”
You do not know this. You know only general characteristics of surface waters. You do not know the properties of the rising water column before it breaches and diffuses into the surrounding waters.
Bart, the whole discussion is about the influence of temperature on the increase in the atmosphere. Even if the deep oceans doubled in upwelling or concentration or both, that gives an increase in CO2 influx which is independent of a temperature increase. A temperature increase gives its own extra pCO2(aq) increase of 16 microatm/K, independent of concentrations or upwelling amounts.
Further, the ocean surface CO2 pressure is measured, see Feely e.a.. Some three million measurements nowadays.
It doesn’t matter what the characteristics are of the rising column, as only the surface waters matter in the exchanges. But even the deep ocean waters were monitored, lots of samples were even taken in the 1920’s down to 4000 m deep:
http://www.biokurs.de/treibhaus/literatur/wattenberg/wattp2.pdf
The deep oceans show a pCO2(aq) of 400-600 microatm. Add to that the effect of the temperature increase from 5°C to 30°C in the tropical surface waters (+400 microatm), that would give a maximum of 1000 microatm at the uwpelling places from bypassing the surface layer, or a doubling of the current maximum, if sustained. But that doesn’t matter at all as the effect of temperature and concentration are independent of each other.
This is characteristic of your circular logic. You assume things you do not know, then make calculations based on those assumptions, and claim proof… of what? Of your assumptions leading to the answer you desire, that is what.
Bart, if you should have read some scientific literature beyond process control, you might have known that what I wrote is based on observations, including the temperature-solubility curve of CO2 in seawater, not the odd theorical comparisons that you need to “prove” your point…
The air-ocean pCO2 difference maps of Feely e.a. are here:
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/pubs/outstand/feel2331/maps.shtml
jimmi_the_dalek:
I am offended by your post at August 25, 2013 at 4:57 am which says to me
THAT IS NOT WHAT YOU SAID YOU WOULD PROVIDE.
You had claimed to me
You have not produced those graphs and now you have changed the subject.
In future please do not waste my time by arguing with me about things you assert you can substantiate but when called on it you cannot.
Richard
dbstealey
I don’t see how we will ever agree, since you refuse to admit that the empirical evidence I posted, from several different sources, clearly shows that ∆T causes a subsequesnt ∆CO2. If those charts were meaningless as you claim, then you would have no trouble finding equally meaninglesss charts showing the opposite.
All the graphs you have ever posted show a either detrended CO2 dependence or a detrended temperature dependence. I am making two points. The first is very simple. You cannot learn anything about the trend using detrended data. You cannot tell, from those graphs, whether CO2 follows T, leads T or has no connection to T in the longer run i.e over the time span of the whole graph, because, all the peaks and troughs cancel out . Any relationship that those graph show is short term only
Secondly, for the short term fluctuation, I have offered an alternative explanation for interest – just look at the graphs – on every occasion where you say a peak in (delta)CO2 follows a peak in (delta)T, I can point out that the CO2 peak corresponds to a short term synchronous drop in temperature, which would still of course be a relationship between T and CO2, but not what you think. And no I am not suggesting it shows a rise in CO2 causes a short term rise in T. I am pointing out that an equally valid suggestion is that the temperature fluctuations are modulating a sink – go on try it – actually really look at those graphs.
You are persistently misattributing motive – and adding gratuitous insults – I am not trying to prove CO2 drives T, I am pointing out that you need a stronger argument to prove the opposite.
Richard
“You have not produced those graphs and now you have changed the subject.”
Yes, I have – I have shown that the graphs say nothing at all about the long term trend, which was always the point.
Bart says:
August 25, 2013 at 11:21 am
Phil. says:
August 25, 2013 at 10:17 am
“…realizing that you’d made a colossal error on continuity…”
No, realizing I had left a gap for a stupid person to insert a tediously trollish argument…
“…you decided to lie and make a claim about something I never said!”
If that’s not what you intended, then saying anything in the first place was totally irrelevant to the conversation, and you should have remained silent.
I should have remembered what a troll you are. As usual your failure to understand the physics involved and total denial of the sinks leads to your errors.
“However the downwelling water of the North Atlantic Deep Water is in fact colder than the upwelling water and therefore is likely to carry a higher concentration of CO2 downwards.”
So, in this world of yours, the surface will quickly become depleted of CO2. Better fire up those SUVs, double quick!
So now you’re starting to understand the mass balance equation! That would indeed be the case if fossil fuel combustion weren’t pumping twice as much CO2 into the atmosphere as is being removed by the ocean and biosphere.
Phil, this is like shooting fish in a barrel. Give up.
And you’re unable to even do that, even when you put your fake fish in the barrel!
(Enough with labeling those with a different view than yours as a “troll”. The definition does not fit. Argue the facts, if you are able. ~mod.)
FerdiEgb says:
August 25, 2013 at 1:27 pm
“Even if the deep oceans doubled in upwelling or concentration or both, that gives an increase in CO2 influx which is independent of a temperature increase.”
No, it isn’t. As I explained really very simply with the fizzy drinks example. The more cups there are on the counter, the more outgassing will result from a temperature increase.
Give it some serious thought, Ferdinand. It really is quite obvious when you do.
Jimmi the dalek says:
“I am not trying to prove CO2 drives T, I am pointing out that you need a stronger argument to prove the opposite.”
Good for you. No one else has been able to prove that CO2 drives temperature, either. The only available evidence shows the opposite cause and effect.
As for my argument that T drives CO2, I have posted numerous charts, all based on empirical measurements, which prove exactly that. But for some strange reason you are not able to accept real world evidence, and instead provide a convoluted rationale that real world measurements don’t count.
Believe what you want, but reasonable people who look at the record can see that repeatedly, time after time, for hundreds of thousands of years down to only months, ∆T causes ∆CO2.
You cannot accept observed reality. But don’t feel bad about it, no one in the alarmist cult that demonizes “carbon” can accept observed reality, either. The planet could drop ten degrees in a few decades — which has happened before, and at times when CO2 was both high, and low — and you would still be unable to accept the fact that T strongly influences CO2.
So enough with the endless words, which mean nothing. They are only a conjecture. An opinion. Produce a comparable chart, which I have been asking for constantly, showing that ∆CO2 is the cause of ∆T. If you can do that, you will have my complete attention, and you may even convince me that you’re right. But since you seem incapable of producing empirical evidence showing what you believe, then it remains only a belief.
So show me! Show me a chart based on verifiable, real world measurements, showing that ∆CO2 is the cause of ∆T. Because your convoluted attempts to explain your beliefs are thoroughly inadequate, desperate, and based on belief rather than on real world observations, as are the real world observations that I have repeatedly posted.
Phil. says:
August 25, 2013 at 2:23 pm
Bart says:
August 25, 2013 at 11:21 am
Phil. says:
August 25, 2013 at 10:17 am
“…realizing that you’d made a colossal error on continuity…”
No, realizing I had left a gap for a stupid person to insert a tediously trollish argument…
(Enough with labeling those with a different view than yours as a “troll”. The definition does not fit. Argue the facts, if you are able. ~mod.)
Already done. I take it you apply the same rule to Bart?
dbstealey,
You keep saying you are posting ’empirical evidence’, but you are not. You are posting graphs which are derived in a particular manner from empirical evidence, but are being interpreted in a particular manner which is not consistent with the graph.
For example this one
I don’t know if you made that yourself, but you have posted it several times.
From your remarks I deduce that you interpret it as follows –
Look there’s a peak in the temperature
Look there’s a peak in ‘CO2’, following it
Therefore T caused CO2
Look there are pairs of peaks all through the graph
Therefore this relationship holds over the whole timescale
Therefore T causes the rise in CO2 seen over that time scale (1959-now)
Is that actually your interpretation? If it is not then perhaps we have been at cross purposes. If that is not your interpretation then what is? (and perhaps others could say if they interpret the same way)
The strongest statement I am willing to make about that graph is :
The short term rises and falls in the temperature are correlated with the short time rises and
falls in the trend in the CO2 rise
And please leave off the insults and do not make assumptions and what I believe or am trying to prove
Richard,
Just checking we are talking about the same thing.
As far as I was concerned, the current phase of our interaction began when I objected to a statement of Allan’s that CO2 followed T over all timescales, and you (at 4:28 Aug 23rd) quoted parts of what I said thusly,
Your reply begins by saying
Allan,
regretably this statement, “The close dCO2/dt vs T relationship and the (approx.) 9-month lag of CO2 after temperature extends back to 1958.” is not as solid as you think.
It is rock solid. It could not be more solid.
(Your bit bolded) Which I took to mean that you believed, as Allan does because he confirmed it, as I think dbstealey believes (but I am just checking that), that this is enough to explain not just short term fluctuations, but the general rise ~1959-now. Is that correct?
j-t-d,
It has been discussed here more than once that those charts are derived directly from empirical data. Sorry you missed those discussions. You are simply squirming around, looking for an out for your inability to produce a similar chart showing that rising CO2 causes rising temperature.
dbs
They may be derived directly from empirical data, but that does not mean that your interpretation is correct! Now answer a simple question – is your interpretation as I outlined above?
j_t_d,
My interpretation is correct. You are the only one who cannot understand that when a pattern repeats exactly, over hundreds of thousands of years, that any real scientist would conclude that the pattern is real. It indicates cause and effect. As I told you above:
You cannot accept testable, verifiable, real world evidence. Got it. Your mind is made up and closed tighter than a drumskin. Got it. So I am not writing these posts and posting these numerous graphs to convince you of anything. Your mind is made up and closed tight. Your position is based on your Belief, not on science. I am writing so that readers who actually want to hear both sides of the issue don’t just hear your obfuscation. You make it easy for them to decide.
As stated, If/when you can post a graph, like the ones I posted, but showing that ∆CO2 causes ∆T, I will sit up straight and pay attention. You may even convince me that you are right. But so far, all of your model-based, wordy rationalizations fail against the evidence that the real world presents. Really, who should we believe? You? Or Planet Earth? Because you cannot both be right.
OK.
You claim to know what those graphs mean.
Here is just the CO2 part of your your favourite graph
It has positive and negative portions.
What do the positive bits mean?
What do the negative bits mean?
If you cannot answer that, then you do not know what the graph means – so get with it.
j_t_d,
Of course I can answer that; I have been immersed in this subject for more than forty years. I worked in a weather-related career, on every type of weather and climate related instrument. We received all the manufacturer’s literature, from when global cooling was the big scare, to global warming.
As usual, you are just cherry-picking what you want to believe. Your graph does not even show temperature. That is because you constantly avoid the cause and effect relationship between T and the consistent, repeated, subsequent CO2 movements. Your attitude is that because the sun rises every day, that does not mean there is any mechanism for it. You ignore cause and effect going back many thousands of years. You are simply a True Believer, and the Scientific Method be damned.
CO2 is rising. Who disputes that? The problem for the alarmist crowd is that T is not rising.
That directly contradicts the incessant alarmist predictions over the past few decades, claiming that rising CO2 would cause runaway global warming and climate catastrophe. But the real world is falsifying that belief. In other words, the alarmist crowd was 100% wrong in their predictions, in their certainty, and in their misguided belief. But your ego is so wound up in the alarmist narrative that you cannot disengage. So you argue incessantly — when everyone else can see that your predictions were wrong. ALL of them.
That’s all there is to it, and that fact is confirmed by mountains of empirical [real world] scientific evidence and measurements showing that CO2 does not have the predicted effect.
White is Black, Down is Up, War is Peace, Ignorance is Strength, and CO2 will Cause Runaway Global Warming. All in your fevered dreams.
If “of course” you can answer it, then what is the answer – in one sentence please, otherwise I conclude you do not know. My graph does not have to show temperature, yet. That is the next step after you show me you know what this graph really means.
And by the way, I am not a “warmist” or an “alarmist”, there are things about climate change I am genuinely sceptical about. You could save yourself a lot of typing if you just answer the question and skip the editorialising